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The New Reform That Could Unlock $1B+ for Affordable Housing w/Sharon Cornelissen

The New Reform That Could Unlock $1B+ for Affordable Housing w/Sharon Cornelissen

America is in need of affordable housing; we’re all aware. Buying your first home has become increasingly challenging for everyday people. This is where housing subsidies come in. Federal housing subsidies were created over ninety years ago to help Americans get into the housing market and strengthen the economy, but in 2024, much of that money may not be headed to homebuyers—it could be going to banks instead.

On today’s show, we talk to Sharon Cornelissen, Ph.D., Director of Housing at the Consumer Federation of America. Sharon’s mission is to advocate for safe, affordable housing with equitable mortgage lending for American consumers. In this episode, Sharon illuminates the shocking fact that most Americans are completely unaware of—billions in housing subsidies AREN’T being used for housing. So, if they’re not going to homebuyers, where are all the subsidies headed?

Sharon discusses the banks that could be receiving a significant amount of these subsidies without providing any benefits for homebuyers, how the Coalition for Federal Home Loan Bank Reform is trying to change this, and how, if they succeed, affordable housing could see a MASSIVE influx in subsidies, that could help the housing market tremendously.

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Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:

The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that a whopping 7.3 billion of subsidies are going to something known as the Federal Home Loan Banking System. This is a little known part of the financial system, at least it’s not something that I knew about before starting to research this show. And with a budget like 7.3 billion, you would think that this should be having a huge impact on affordability and the housing market as a whole. But today we’re going to dig into whether that’s actually happening or not.

Hey everyone, and welcome to On the Market. I’m your host, Dave Meyer, and today we have an excellent guest joining us today. Her name is Sharon Cornelissen, who is the Director of Housing for the Consumer Federation of America. And with Sharon. Today we’re going to talk about the history of these subsidies that are going to the federal home loan banks and what’s going on with them today. And we’ll talk about how some proposed reforms that are going through Washington DC right now could impact affordable housing and housing inventory going forward. Alright, let’s bring on Sharon. Sharon, welcome to the show. Thanks for being here.

Sharon:

Yeah, thanks for having me.

Dave:

To start off, tell us a little bit about what it means to be the director of Housing for the Consumer Federation of America.

Sharon:

So the Consumer Federation of America is a national nonpartisan, pro-consumer organization that leads in research and advocacy on pro-consumer issues. So as a director of housing, I’m responsible for all our positions on housing and housing policy, and I do both research and advocacy on housing.

Dave:

And how did you come into this role and begin specializing in housing?

Sharon:

Yeah, it’s kind of a funny story I guess. So I first started to be interested in housing about a decade ago. I was doing my PhD in sociology and I moved to Detroit to try to better understand the city and what people were going through, living in an extremely depopulated neighborhood. So I moved to one of the most depopulated urban neighborhoods of the United States. And while I was there, homes were selling from $500, A lot of homes were vacant. Every other house in the neighborhood where I lived was vacant. So I actually ended up buying a house myself there in Detroit for $7,000. So maybe of interest to some of your listeners. So I had to of course, buy cash in these neighborhoods. All the normal institutions that normally support housing markets did not exist anymore, did not function anymore. So there were no mortgages, pretty much no real estate agents.

A lot of people did not have home insurance. So it was really challenging for a lot of Detroiters in particular to try to hold onto their home. A lot of people were losing their homes, both due to tax foreclosure, they were falling behind from their tax bills. And also because of home repairs that were kind of spiraling out of control. If you have no home equity and no insurance, it’s very expensive to maintain it. So I became really interested in housing, living there and seeing the charterers go through tax foreclosure and trying to organize to keep people in their homes. And I think if you live in a place where the housing market basically has collapsed, you understand how important it is really for housing stability for kids growing up in a stable home, but also for a neighborhood to kind of keep a community together. Housing is really important for that as well. So that’s kind of how I got into the fields.

Dave:

That’s an incredible story. I would imagine that would be very transformative in terms of your life and your career. Before we jump into some of your research, what year was that, that you moved there and bought the house?

Sharon:

Yeah, I moved there in 2015 and I bought the house in 2016.

Dave:

So even almost a decade after the collapse, that was still the situation.

Sharon:

It was sort of the secondary collapse. Detroit went through the foreclosure crisis bank, foreclosures first, and then about seven 80 years later, especially 20 15, 20 16, it went through a second crisis. The tax for closure crisis as home prices remained so low and people could not keep up on their tax bills.

Dave:

Well, let’s move on to your work at the Consumer Federation of America. I understand that you do a lot of work with housing subsidies. Can you just give us an overview of what subsidies are like in the United States and just a general landscape?

Sharon:

Yeah. Well, I think the subsidies that get a lot of attention, maybe subsidies paid to individuals. For example, you have section eight housing vouchers for people that are very low income and cannot afford to pay rents otherwise. But you have also subsidies housing subsidies that go to really large institutions that often get less attention, I think in the media perhaps because it’s less visible, they’re not that open about the subsidies that they receive. And it’s perhaps more technical people kind of check out as soon as we start talking about GSEs and housing finance reform, federal home loan banks. So these subsidies are less visible, I guess

Dave:

That’s true, but I think you’ll find a ready and willing audience here on the market. Our audience really likes learning about the intricacies of the housing market and how all works. So you mentioned there’s section eight, there’s also the GSEs. Do you have a number for the total amount of subsidies annually that are distributed for housing?

Sharon:

And this is not my number. This is a number from the Congressional Budget Office. They published their reports very recently to calculate how much federal loan banks this GSE receive every year. And they packed that number at 7.3 billion in 2024. So that’s quite a number right there.

Dave:

Okay. 7.3 billion. And that’s made up of both Section eight housing and some of the more bank side, or is that just section eight?

Sharon:

No, that’s just subsidy. That just goes to the federal home loan banks.

Dave:

Oh, okay. I see. This

Sharon:

Is a number that they receive.

Dave:

Okay. And this is taxpayer dollars that I assume are attributed by Congress?

Sharon:

No, they’re not appropriated by Congress. The subsidy kind of goes through a back door. It doesn’t show up in a budget for Congress, but it’s a subsidy nonetheless.

Dave:

How does that work?

Sharon:

How does that work? So they are a government sponsored enterprise, A GSE, and it means that they receive unique tax and regulatory benefits. They have a sort of unique status granted to them by Congress in exchange for providing unmet credit needs and public benefits. So they’re receiving the status in order to meet an unmet credit need. So this includes, for example, that there’s an implied federal guarantee on all the debts that they take out. So if you are an investor, you pick between different investment options, and in the case of A GSC, you know that if this federal home loan bank will fail, the government will step in to rescue it basically. So it lowers the risk profile. So therefore, the debt that the government is indirectly providing a subsidy on federal Hong loan bank’s debts in that way, they also have what’s called a super lien on their debts.

So that means if one of the banks that they’re lending money to, for example, a regional bank that they’re lending money to fails, the federal home loan banks have first dips basically on assets to kind of get their money back even before the FDIC. So even before taxpayers, they get first dips. So these are all features that make them more attractive for investors, and that creates this big discount that they get on their debts. So the government is basically giving them all these special benefits and statuses and tax-free status. And in total, that special status is worth 7.3 billion every year.

Dave:

Wow. Okay. So I’m going to try and summarize this to make sure I fully understand what’s going on. There are select banks, they’re called the acronym GSE applies to them that sensor government subsidized entities, is that right?

Sharon:

Government-sponsored enterprises,

Dave:

Government-sponsored enterprises. So there are certain banks, and we’ll get into which ones they are in just a minute. Let’s go step by step here.

Sharon:

So there are 11 federal home loan banks. So there are regional banks, kind of like the Federal Reserve system. So they are bank, I call them bank for banks. So they’re not like Bank of America or Chase themselves? No. This is an overarching bank for banks, basically. So banks can get cheap loans, a cheap source of liquidity from the federal home loan banks. So the role of federal home loan banks is to, they get a discount on their own debts because of their GSE status, and then they pass on that discount to their members, which are banks, credit unions, insurance, companie, all the like. So what they do is to basically give banks a cheap source of money, a cheap source of liquidity. And historically that money has been used to help banks provide mortgages, but today members are doing anything with that money. Many banks, as you know, are not even in the business of lending mortgages anymore. So they can use money for any purpose that they see fit. So it could be just for acute liquidity needs. In the very moment, Silicon Valley Bank was lending a lot of money right before it fails. Or if you are an insurance company, you could say, Hey, that’s great. That’s cheap money. Let’s borrow a bunch of cheap money and then I’ll vest it elsewhere and then I can keep the difference. I can make money that way.

Dave:

That sounds like a pretty good deal for those banks or an insurance company just being able to get cheap debt and basically do arbitrage and lend it out for a higher interest rate somewhere else, or invest it wherever they want. Yeah, exactly. So you said these are banks of banks. Have we heard of any of these banks or would normal people recognize the names of them?

Sharon:

Well, I mean, their names are the federal non Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Bank of Pittsburgh,

Dave:

San

Sharon:

Francisco. So that’s their names. I think everyday Americans have not heard of them because they don’t directly interact with you or me as consumers. They are the bank for banks. So they interact directly with big companies, not with everyday people.

Dave:

Okay, got it. Okay. We have to take a quick break, but stay with us more on housing subsidies right after this. Welcome back to On the Market. Let’s pick back up with Sharon Cornelison and housing subsidies. And so I assume that this policy and system was put in place in an effort, make home ownership more affordable.

Sharon:

So the system was founded in 1932. This was during what I call the greatest housing crisis of the last century. So this was during the Great Depression. There was really a struggle for people to own houses or to buy homes at all, but mortgages, mortgages are very expensive. Mortgage money wasn’t readily available at the time. If you are in the thirties, if you are a bank, you rely on deposits as your source of liquidity. And then depending on how many deposits you have, you can originate mortgages based on those deposits. So at the time they were like, well, wouldn’t it be great if there was a more reliable source of liquidity for mortgages? So Congress chartered the federal non bank system at the time so that they could make more liquidity available for mortgages. So mortgages would be more widely available and they would be cheaper. That was sort of the idea in the 1930s.

Dave:

And did it work back then, at least?

Sharon:

I mean, there were a lot of things that were innovated in the thirties. The Federal Housing Administration was also founded around that time, so they were in a big crisis. So crisis often is a good time for innovation and new opportunities. So I think at the time it did work. It was a good source for mortgage lending. The members at the time were engaged in mortgage lending, and this was a good way for them to get more liquidity.

Dave:

And now this is going to be a bit of a subjective question, but would you say it’s working today?

Sharon:

Well, clearly I believe it is not. I mean, I think your listeners will also understand the mortgage market has really changed over the last 90 years. So first of all, a lot of the people or a lot of the institutions that used to be engaged in mortgage lending are not anymore. A lot of the mortgage lending today is actually done by independent mortgage banks, such as Rocket Mortgage or those sort of online mortgage banks, and they are not members of federal banks at all. Right? So a lot of the mortgage lending has shifted, and a lot of traditional banks are no longer in the business anymore. And in the second big change that has happened since the 1980s, we saw the rise of securitization. So right now, if you’re a bank and you originate a mortgage, you turn around and then you sell that mortgage to Fannie or Freddie most likely, so you’re not keeping it on your books. So the capital that you need to originate a mortgage is very different from what it was in the thirties when there wasn’t that secondary markets yet.

Dave:

Well, I was a little bit joking when I asked if you liked it, because for our audience, Sharon is of the Coalition for Federal Home Loan Bank Reform. So obviously you’re looking to change this program. Can you tell us a little bit about the coalition?

Sharon:

Yeah. So this coalition started, we were sort of trying to find individuals and groups that were united around the idea that the status quo for federal owned banks is not acceptable. So right now we have 10 national organizations that includes civil rights organizations, housing, as well as a labor union as well. And together they represent thousands of smaller organizations across the country and well over 1 million local members. We also have an advisory board with a lot of GSE and financial regulation and banking experts on it. So the advisory board has been very helpful in giving us ideas for reform and just answering questions where needed, because some of these things can get pretty complex pretty quickly.

Dave:

Okay. So when you look at the state of the subsidies today, is the problem that the money’s just not going where it’s intended to? Or is it being used inefficiently? You already mentioned that banks can sort of take the money and lend it out not as mortgages. Is that the primary problem or what’s sort of the big issue?

Sharon:

So if you are A GSE, A government sponsored enterprise, there’s always sort of a tension. So GSEs, they were founded with a public mission. So there are some unmet credit needs that is not served by the private markets, so that’s why you need A GSC to begin with. Otherwise, the private market could take care of it. So you start a GSC with a public mission, but then it’s also kind of private at the same time. It’s a hybrid. So it’s also driven by maximizing profits. So over time, the profits motive has sort of eclipsed the public mission. So they’re really driven by just pursuing more volume and more profits and not by thinking carefully about, well, how can we make the biggest impact on housing? So I think that’s sort of an inherent tension that exists for federal loan banks.

Dave:

And I guess in your opinion at least, it seems that there wasn’t enough regulation put in place or specificity to the arrangement here that has allowing the GSEs to pursue profit over the public benefit that it’s intended for.

Sharon:

Yeah, I mean, as I said, the mortgage market has sort of shifted over time. So I think we’ve sort of lost track of this GS as the market market shifted, and they of course went about their business because I understand that they’re motivated by their own bottom line that is important for them to continue to exist in some ways. So the mortgage market evolved and yeah, I think they need more tight regulation to make sure that they’re fulfilling that mission for which they were founded and that we are getting the right public benefits from those subsidies. Why are we giving subsidies? Why are we giving the GSC to special status and tax benefits and subsidies if we’re not getting the equivalent in return? That doesn’t make any sense. If they are not doing that, perhaps they shouldn’t exist at all. We can’t just be handing out subsidies and not getting public benefits in return.

Dave:

Right. Yeah, there needs to be some mutual benefit. They can’t just get the benefit of subsidies without providing the public benefit. But as you said, it sounds like it just started so long ago and perhaps hasn’t evolved as quickly as it needs to in order to keep up with the current financial system. So Sharon, what are some of the regulations that you think should go into place or what needs to change in your mind?

Sharon:

Yeah, I think there’s two kind of big items that have to change. So the first one is around mission and making sure that we are really clear about what the mission is of the Federal hormone loan bank and say, well, they are there to provide liquidity for housing, affordable housing and community developments. And if that’s so, then everything else should flow from that mission. So I think clarifying the mission is sort of the first step. And the second one is membership. Who should be, if that’s the mission, and if the point is to really provide more liquidity to mortgages and to help more affordable housing developments, then who should be a member? Does it make sense that insurance companies are members of federal home loan banks when they’re not doing anything in housing anymore or they’re not originating a single mortgage? Why are they there? That doesn’t really make sense. Really making sure that the members that are part of the Federal Home Loan Bank system use it to advance affordable housing goals. So I think small bank community banks should reap the full benefits of Federal Home Bank membership, what’s called Community development financial institutions, which are CDFIs, really make sure that they can get full access to federal home bank expenses and use that money to build more housing. That’s sort of what we like to see.

Dave:

Okay. It is time for our last quick break, but when we come back, we’ll get Sharon’s take on how Federal home Loan bank reform could impact the affordability crisis in the us. Stay tuned. Welcome back, everyone. Let’s jump back in. And how is the reaction to these proposals? I know you work for a bipartisan foundation. Is this being received well by both parties in Congress and the banks themselves?

Sharon:

So yeah, we are seeing, seeing greater and greater reception of this in the administration and in Congress. So Joe Biden, in his state of the Union housing proposal, he flagged the need for Federal Home Loan Bank as one of the priorities of the administration and housing moving forward, specifically making sure that they’re devoting more money to affordable housing programs every year. Right now, they’re only required to devote 10% of their income to affordable housing programs, but the administration wants that to be at least 20% sort of a first step to make them more aligned. We see more and more support in Congress as well. So Senator Cortez Moto has been a big supporter of this. She’s in senate banking as well, and then Senator Elizabeth Warren recently came out to really supports the need for reform. But ultimately, I think it’s a bipartisan issue. I mean, I know for example, Cato Institute has written as well about the absurdity of a system as it currently exists. So we see both from progressive voices and more conservative voices that needs to really reform the system. So I’m hoping that moving forward there will be more and more people signing onto a bill and we can turn this into a bipartisan housing

Dave:

Bill. And should this pass one day, what would be the impact on the housing market?

Sharon:

Yeah, so just to give you an example, last year in 2023 was actually the most profitable year for the federal home known banks ever, I think in history. So based on that profit, they will be required to spend 752 million in affordable housing programs next year. So that 10% of their income, they’re required right now to spend on affordable housing programs. If our proposal passes and they, instead of 10% have to spend 30% on affordable housing programs every year, that would mean an additional 1.5 billion in investments going towards housing. That includes, they often spend these affordable housing dollars on gap financing for affordable housing developments like Litech developments, as well as on down payment assistance. So an additional 1.5 billion could really do a lot more in both addressing our issue of housing supply and addressing longstanding issues of and who has access to home buying in this market.

Dave:

Got it. Okay. Makes a lot of sense. For our audience of investors, if they are interested in creating affordable housing or being one of those developers, is there a way for them to get involved?

Sharon:

I think that they should look at the website of federal owned owned banks and see in what region they fall, and then from there, go look basically for that gap financing for affordable housing developments. I must say that from what I’ve heard from people, from developers, it is notoriously hard to get this type of money, and they say it’s often the last money in the first money out because it’s so complicated to qualify for it. So that’s another thing that we think should change. It should be more accessible, it should be used more logically. It shouldn’t be that complicated to qualify for this kind of financing on top of Litech or other credits. You nod. You’re saying it’s a common problem?

Dave:

Yeah, it does. We talk to a lot of developers on this show, a lot of people who represent government agencies or policy advocates like yourself, and it is just a common refrain we hear is although there is intent to create affordable housing or public-private partnerships, that they’re often quite complicated. Yeah. Well, Sharon, thank you so much for joining us today and educating us on this topic. I did not understand this at all before our conversation, and thank you for educating me and our audience. We really appreciate it.

Sharon:

Yeah, thank you so much. I was glad I could. I know it’s complicated. So happy to be a resource anytime, Dave.

Dave:

And for anyone who wants to learn more about Sharon or her work at the Consumer Federation of America, we’ll put all of her contact information in the show. Notes below on the Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

Watch the Episode Here

https://youtube.com/watch?v=kDWH_gTpfR0

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Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

In This Episode We Cover:

  • Where the $7.3 billion in housing subsidies is actually going
  • The Federal Home Loan Bank system and why it’s in dire need of reform 
  • How the mortgage market changed over the past century and why we’re seeing these problems
  • How over $1 billion could be directed straight towards affordable housing
  • How Sharon picked up a $7,000 house in one of the most devastated real estate markets 
  • And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Connect with Sharon:

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Homebuyers falter as mortgage rates hit new 2024 highs

Homebuyers falter as mortgage rates hit new 2024 highs

Requests for purchase loans were down 1 percent week over week and 15 percent from a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association survey.

At Inman Connect Las Vegas, July 30-Aug. 1 2024, the noise and misinformation will be banished, all your big questions will be answered, and new business opportunities will be revealed. Join us.

Homebuyer demand for purchase loans faltered last week as mortgage rates touched new 2024 highs, spurring more borrowers to opt for adjustable-rate loans, according to a weekly survey of lenders by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed requests for purchase loans were down by a seasonally adjusted 1 percent last week when compared to the week before, and off 15 percent from a year ago. Applications to refinance were down 6 percent week over week, but up 3 percent from a year ago.

Joel Kan

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, reaching their highest levels since late 2023 and putting a damper on applications activity,” MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said in a statement. “The 30-year fixed rate increased for the third consecutive week to 7.24 percent, the highest since November 2023.”

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Kan said purchase applications declined as would-be homebuyers hit pause due to strained affordability and low supply. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for 7.6 percent of loan applications, up from 6.4 percent in February, “consistent with the upward trend in rates, as buyers look to reduce their potential monthly payments.”

Mortgage rates retreat from 2024 highs

Data tracked by Optimal Blue shows borrowers were locking in rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages Tuesday at an average rate of 7.16 percent Tuesday.

That’s up 66 basis points from a 2024 low of 6.50 percent registered on Feb. 1, but down from a 2024 high of 7.21 percent seen on April 16 and last year’s high of 7.83 percent, registered on Oct. 25.

Mortgage rates have surged in April as incoming economic data shows inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on April 10 showed prices rising by 3.5 percent in March from a year ago, up from 3.2 percent annual growth in February.

The CPI report was followed by an April 15 data release showing surprisingly strong growth in retail and food services sales in March.

Mortgage rates expected to fall gradually

Source: Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, April 2024.

MBA and Fannie Mae economists now agree that mortgage rates will come down only gradually this year and next as Fed policymakers wait for more evidence that they’re winning their war on inflation.

For the week ending April 19, the MBA reported average rates for the following types of loans:

  • For 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages (loan balances of $766,550 or less), rates averaged 7.24 percent, up from 7.13 percent the week before. With points increasing to 0.66 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans, the effective rate also increased.
  • Rates for 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgages (loan balances greater than $766,550) averaged 7.45 percent, up from 7.40 percent the week before. With points increasing to 0.56 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans, the effective rate also increased.
  • For 30-year fixed-rate FHA mortgages, rates averaged 7.01 percent, up from 6.90 percent the week before. Although points decreased to 0.94 from 0.99 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans, the effective rate also increased.
  • Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.75 percent, up from 6.64 percent the week before. With points unchanged at 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans, the effective rate also increased.
  • For 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), rates averaged 6.64 percent, up from 6.52 percent the week before. With points increasing to 0.87 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans, the effective rate also increased.

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Homebuyers falter as mortgage rates hit new 2024 highs

Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ gambit may yet cool home price gains

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Home prices are showing surprising strength in the face of the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate strategy, but home price appreciation is expected to cool this year and next even as mortgage rates come down, according to two closely watched forecasts.

Economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are now in agreement that mortgage rates will come down only gradually this year and next as Federal Reserve policymakers wait for more evidence that they’re winning their war on inflation.

In a March 21 forecast, MBA economists had predicted rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would drop to 6.1 percent by the end of this year, and average 5.6 percent in Q4 2024. The latest MBA forecast, issued April 18, envisions rates at 6.4 percent by Q4 2024 and 5.9 percent during Q4 2025.

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In a forecast released Tuesday, Fannie Mae economists said they see rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans dropping to 6.4 percent by the end of this year and to 6 percent during the second half of next year.

Mortgage rates expected to fall gradually

Source: Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, April 2024.

Fannie Mae economists are slightly more optimistic about the pace of 2025 rate declines than they were in March when they didn’t expect rates to hit 6 percent until Q4.

Hamilton Fout

“While we still expect economic growth and inflation to moderate going forward — and, thus, for mortgage rates to drift downward — interest rates existing in a ‘higher for longer’ state seems to be an increasingly real possibility in the eyes of market participants, as well as some homebuyers and sellers,” Fannie Mae Vice President Hamilton Fout said in a statement.

But Fannie Mae forecasters also note that their mortgage rate projections were put together earlier this month. Since then, rates have climbed on hot consumer price index (CPI) and labor reports.

The Fed’s continued struggles to tame inflation mean there’s “upside risk” to Fannie Mae’s baseline mortgage rate forecast, economists at the mortgage giant said in commentary accompanying their latest forecast. In other words, rates could stay higher than projected.

Financial markets no longer expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting short-term interest rates in June, and the prospects for three 2024 rate cuts as projected by Fed policymakers in December and March are also in doubt.

“We now expect just two 25-basis point rate cuts to the fed funds rate this year, with the first occurring in September,” Fannie Mae economists said. “Of course, there remains the possibility that there will be no rate cuts in 2024, but that is not our base case forecast.”

Analysts at UBS Group AG also expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year, but see an outside chance that instead of cutting rates, the Fed might have to raise them next year — a move that might send mortgage rates soaring above 8 percent, they warned.

Home price appreciation projected to cool

Source: Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, April 2024.

While elevated mortgage rates have dented home sales, national home prices have continued to rise, in part, because many existing homeowners are feeling locked in to the low rate on their existing mortgage and have been reluctant to sell.

The lack of inventory in many markets has made homebuyers more willing to pay higher asking prices. The double-digit home price appreciation seen during the pandemic cooled in 2022 and the first half of 2023, only to rebound in the second half of the year as inventories remained scarce.

Economists expect home prices will continue to rise, but that the pace of home price appreciation will slow as more listings come on the market.

“Despite continued high mortgage rates, an increasing share of homeowners appear to be acclimating to the higher mortgage rate environment or deciding they can no longer put off the listing of their homes,” Fannie Mae economists said. New listings are expected to come onto the market faster than sales pick up, “which should help gradually thaw housing inventory and contribute to decelerating home price growth.”

Fannie Mae economists believe home price appreciation is poised to decelerate from 7.4 percent during Q1 2024 to 4.8 percent by the end of this year and to 1.5 percent by Q4 2025.

When forecasters at the mortgage giant last updated their home price appreciation forecast in January, they were expecting home prices to decelerate more drastically — to 3.2 percent by the end of 2024 and to just 0.3 percent in Q4 2025.

MBA economists concur that home price appreciation will cool this year, but remain above 3 percent in 2025.

‘Modest’ growth in 2024 home sales expected

Source: Fannie Mae housing forecast, April 2024.

Fannie Mae economists expect growth in new listings will help generate a “modest” 4.3 percent increase in 2024 sales of existing homes, to 4.266 million, followed by a more significant 10 percent bump in 2025 sales to 4.691 million.

Economists at the mortgage giant are projecting similar growth in new home sales, which are forecast to rise by 4 percent in 2024 to 693,000 homes and by 12.8 percent in 2025 to 782,000 homes.

Rising home sales, prices could boost mortgage lending

Source: Fannie Mae housing forecast, April 2024.

With home sales and home prices both expected to rise, Fannie Mae expects 2024 mortgage originations to grow by 23 percent, to $1.818 trillion, followed by 25 percent growth in 2025, to $2.261 trillion.

“We have revised upward our expectation for both purchase and refinance mortgage origination volumes this month, due in particular to our more optimistic home price growth expectation and somewhat lower mortgage rate path, along with an upgraded expectation for home sales,” Fannie Mae economists said.

Mortgage refinancing volume is forecast to grow by 67 percent this year to $415 billion and 58 percent in 2025 to $657 billion.

But mortgage lenders will still be counting on homebuyers for most of their business, with purchase loan originations expected to climb by 23 percent this year to $1.398 trillion and by 25 percent in 2025 to $1.604 trillion.

“It should be noted, however, that given the upside risk to mortgage rates in our forecast, we see downside risk to our originations outlook,” Fannie Mae economists said.

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The New Reform That Could Unlock $1B+ for Affordable Housing w/Sharon Cornelissen

Sunbelt Surge: 15 Cities Dominating the Growth Charts

Simply investing in any metro Sunbelt market is not a recipe for success. To catch a cresting wave of appreciation and cash flow, you’ll need to dive deep into the metrics to examine where people are moving to, how property and rental prices are increasing, and what the unemployment rate is like. 

The good news is that we’ve done it all for you! So stop throwing darts at the map, examine our findings, and pick markets like the savvy, switched-on investor you are.

Rental Oversupply and Interest Rates Are Having an Effect

The first thing you’ll notice when looking at the table is that neither house prices nor rents in our top markets are growing at a great clip. Some are declining. After the frothy post-pandemic period in 2021, when prices and rents took off like spaceships, the advent of high interest rates has done what was intended: slammed the brakes on an exuberant house-buying market. 

An increase in rental units has compounded this, as many new apartments came to market to accommodate population increases fueled by relocating job markets. National data, analytics, and listing site CoStar had the same findings in a recent report.

“The U.S. multifamily market staged a strong rebound in 2023 as the number of units absorbed rose by 122% year over year to 332,000 units,” Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics at CoStar, said in a statement on their organization’s website. While the increase in demand was impressive, it was overshadowed by the influx of new units, causing imbalances in supply and demand and pushing vacancy rates higher. 

Costar’s report stated that roughly 565,000 new units became available over the last year, mostly in Sunbelt states, with oversupply causing rents to drop in some Southern markets, as our table shows. 

Austin Hits The Brakes

Nowhere has the home growth slowdown been more acute than in Austin, Texas, the poster child for the Texas tech boom, where our data shows a 6.29% decrease in home prices and a 3.01% decrease in rents over the year. It’s a decline from its dizzying high of just a few years ago, when investors purchased a record $9.4 billion in apartments in 2021, according to MSCI Real Assets, and rents increased 20%, more significant than anywhere else in the country. 

The actual decrease is more profound than our YOY data shows, with the Freddie Mac House Price Index revealing prices have fallen more than 11% since peaking in 2022, the most significant drop of any metro area in the country, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Clearly, there’s some pockets of overbuilding,” apartment investor Larry Connor, whose company manages a 15,000-unit national portfolio, told the WSJ

However, counting Austin out would be a mistake. The area has so many major tech companies that once the market stabilizes, values will inevitably increase.

Charleston’s Tourism Is a $12 Billion Industry.

Interestingly, although Charleston, South Carolina, came in toward the bottom of our listing, that was due to its population growth only. Based on its house prices (up 6.31%) and rental increases (up 7.03%), the area is booming, which indicates that many of its jobs are being filled by locals. According to the U.S. Census, South Carolina surpassed Florida as the fastest-growing state in the country last year. 

According to South Carolina’s state website, North Charleston, South Carolina, which includes Berkeley, Charleston, and Dorchester counties, had the largest percentage gain in nonfarm employment from October 2022 to October 2023. Employment rose from 402,300 to 426,800, reflecting a total change of 24,500, or 6.1%. 

The largest private employers in Charleston are in healthcare, aviation (Boeing), and retail (Walmart). However, one of the biggest drivers of employment is tourism, which adds $12 billion to the local economy. Tourism would account for the increase in house prices and local employment. AirDNA statistics support this by showing double the active short-term rental listings in 12 months. 

Highest-Growth Sunbelt Cities

The fastest-growing Sunbelt cities are all relatively close to one another: Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, followed by three Florida cities: Lakeland, Fort Myers, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton. Here’s a deeper dive into each.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Myrtle Beach is not only one of the fastest-growing cities in the Sunbelt, but the fastest-growing in the country according to U.S. News and World Report’s annual list of fastest-growing places in America, which bases its list on net migration. Our data ratified this, showing 5.17% population growth, a stable 2.08% house price growth, and 3.65% rental price growth. 

A significant component of Myrtle Beach’s success has been diversifying away from purely tourism. “We’ve said for a number of years that a key component of making this a year-round livable place is to diversify our job base and that we’re not wholly dependent on the summer seasons and the summer tourism industry,” assistant city manager Brian Tucker told News 13, a local TV station. “We have to have those job creators year-round.”

However, many year-round movers to the area are not drawn to the area for work but are retirees or work remotely. Horry County, for example, has seen an explosion of growth over the past 20-plus years, increasing from 198,000 people in 2000 to over 380,000 in 2022. Moving company Hire a Helper found that 16,000 retirees, most over 55, moved to the Myrtle Beach area in 2023.

Lakeland, Florida

Our numbers showed that Lakeland saw a healthy 4.5% population growth in 2023, a modest 0.87% home price growth, and 1.63% rental growth. 

One of the main draws to the area is its location between Orlando and Tampa. It retains a small-town feel, has lower housing costs, and is less crowded than the suburbs of the two major cities surrounding it. 

Lakeland offers diverse employment opportunities in education, healthcare, aviation, and logistics. It’s an excellent choice for people to live and retire, mainly if remote work is an option.

Fort Myers, Florida

Located between Tampa and Miami on Florida’s Gulf Coast, Fort Myers has many of the same attributes as Lakeland, in that it is not as expensive as some of the more glamorous cities in Florida and has a laid-back charm, with the addition of a vibrant downtown bar scene in the River District. It’s also a haven for outdoor and water enthusiasts. 

There are employment opportunities here in healthcare, retail, education, and tourism. The commute to Naples is not far for work in the hospitality industry at many hotels. 

U.S. News ranked Fort Myers No. 3 as one of the fastest-growing cities in the country in 2023-2024. Our figures show a healthy population growth of 4.38% and a marginal house price growth of 0.15% (due to interest rates and explosive growth when rates were lower). Rental growth has dropped 1.58% over the last year due to a rapid increase during high inflation. 

Like many cities in Florida, Fort Myers is a magnet for retirees, with residents 65 and older making up nearly a quarter of the city’s population.

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida

Located close to Lakeland, with many of the same attributes, lower house prices, and a quieter pace than nearby Tampa and Miami, the area is busy with new developments such as Marie Selby Botanical Gardens and the opening of a 1920s house-museum in Newtown, the city’s historic Black district. 

Our figures showed population growth of 3.68%, with home price growth dropping 0.42% and rent growth dropping 0.20%. 

One of the draws to the greater Sarasota area for New Yorkers is not only its proximity to target citiesbut also its active arts scene (Sarasota Orchestra, the Asolo Repertory Theatre, the Sarasota Opera House, and the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall), as well as popular white sandy beaches. 

With a large population of retirees, it’s not surprising that healthcare is one of the big employers in the area, with the Sarasota Memorial Health Care System employing 6,550 people. A sophisticated arts scene appears to come with a price, however, as the median home price is over $450,000 and the median rent $2,382, which puts it out of the reach of many retirees.

Final Thoughts

Lower taxes, warm weather, and an affordable cost of living are the main reasons businesses and people have been moving to the Sunbelt, particularly Florida. According to U.S. Census data, Florida was the top location for newly formed business entities. Of the 5.8 million new business applications filed nationally from January 2021 to January 2022, 683,680, or 12%, were in Florida.

These businesses have spanned the gamut in size and scope, ranging from behemoths such as real estate investment group Blackstone, global investment bank Goldman Sachs, and autonomous vehicle technology company Argo AI to hundreds of smaller businesses. Combine this with remote work options and a perennially favorite spot for retirees, and you can see why Florida is—excuse the analogy—amid a perfect storm of migration

The reasons for moving to Texas and other Sunbelt states are similar to those of Florida: work, weather, and a welcoming cost of living. So long as these remain intact, it’s hard to see how the Sunbelt won’t continue to tighten its hold on Americans looking to escape the cold, overcrowding, and high cost of living in other parts of the country.

Investors have two main choices regarding Sunbelt housing: appeal to retirees who are hesitant to commit to long-term mortgages or appeal to the influx of younger movers drawn to jobs, the weather, and affordable rents.

Exclusive Breakdown and Data Analysis of the Hottest Region for Investors

It’s no secret the Sunbelt has been a primary focus of investors for years due to appreciation and rent growth. But which markets offer the best opportunities for cash flow?

Download our Sunbelt Market worksheet for a synopsis of the most popular metros and states for investors, and get the full data for all states and markets in our accompanying Sunbelt Market Intel spreadsheet.

sunbelt markets market intelligence

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

The New Reform That Could Unlock $1B+ for Affordable Housing w/Sharon Cornelissen

Warning: These States and Cities Are Becoming Uninvestable Due to Politics

Taxes and regulations impact your bottom line as an investor—and not always in direct or obvious ways. Unfortunately, as soon as you start talking about either one, the average person closes their mind, circling the wagons around their existing worldview and only hearing data points that support it. Look no further than this Yale study, which shows that people perform worse on math problems if the correct answers conflict with their political ideology. 

I’ll get it out of the way now: I find both major political parties reprehensible and hypocritical. I’ve voted for each roughly equally over my life.

Now, let’s get back to real estate investing.

Taxes and Population Change

Population drives demand for real estate, and a shrinking population poses a major problem for real estate investors. Identifying population shifts, therefore, matters to real estate investors—a lot. 

There’s been a narrative over the last few years that more Americans have started voting with their feet and leaving higher-tax states in favor of lower-tax states. Is it true? 

I started by pulling raw data from the Census Bureau. I then mapped population change for all 50 states:

Investment analyst Ben Reynolds of SureDividend.com pointed out to BiggerPockets a few much-discussed examples: “Texas and Florida are two of the fastest-growing states by population. Not coincidentally, they offer a compelling mix of no state income tax and less cold climates compared to most other states.”

That raises the question of comparing population change to state taxes. Fortunately, that data is also readily available. 

Tax Burden by State

Every year, WalletHub ranks every state by its total tax burden, which includes state income taxes, property taxes, and sales and excise taxes. 

Surprising no one, New York took the top spot with the highest tax burden (12.02% of income for the average resident). New York also lost nearly 102,000 residents last year. 

That’s just one state, of course. Let’s look at states with a population loss last year: 

  • California
  • Hawaii
  • Illinois
  • Louisiana
  • New York
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • West Virginia

How did they rank on tax burden?

The average tax burden ranking for these states is 14. In fact, only one of these states was ranked above the median of 25, and then just barely: Louisiana has a tax rank of 27. 

So yes, there is a clear correlation between tax burden and population change. And yes, I also hear all you skeptics out there objecting that “correlation does not indicate causation.” Go ahead and cling to that if it helps reinforce your existing worldview that taxes play no role in people’s decisions about where to live. 

I’m not saying taxes are the only or even the most important factor in where Americans move. Surveys about moving trends list many stated reasons for moving. But taxes appear to play a role in the calculations—especially for wealthier Americans. 

Higher-net worth individuals are most likely to move to states with low or no income tax,” said Alexandra Alvarado of the American Apartment Owners Association in a conversation with BiggerPockets. “It may not be the primary reason they are making the move in the first place, but it does influence which states they are moving to. Also, companies that are moving their headquarters to lower tax states also influence migration patterns, as their employees tend to move with them.”

And that says nothing of the state and local taxes you pay directly as a property investor—taxes that eat into your returns on investment. While you can’t avoid federal taxes, you can pick and choose the states and cities where you invest—and their respective tax policies.  

Anti-Landlord Regulation

People love to hate landlords. I’ve never understood this: The same activists who cry out in righteous fury that there’s not enough affordable rental housing are the very ones who rail against “greedy” landlords—the people who supply rental housing. 

In some cities and states, these activists have enacted regulations that heavily favor renters over landlords. Back when I used to buy properties directly, I operated in Baltimore, one of the most tenant-friendly jurisdictions in the country. It once took me 11 months to get a nonpaying “professional tenant” out of my rental property. 

In our group real estate investing club at SparkRental, we focus first and foremost on managing risk. Every month when we get together to vet a new investment, we look at risks like debt, construction, property management, and regulation. 

Regulatory risk matters. If it takes two months to remove a nonpaying tenant in one market and 10 months in another, it adds risk and cost to invest in the tenant-friendly market. 

Look no further than the pandemic-era eviction moratoriums. Tenant-friendly markets extended moratoriums long after the federal moratorium expired, making lease contracts one-way enforceable for years. Many renters lived for free for several years, letting their landlord pay the mortgage and maintain their home while they milked every moment of free rent. 

And now that the precedent has been set, these jurisdictions can play the same card again the next time a “crisis” arrives. 

Therefore, anti-landlord regulation adds risk to your investment. Hard stop. 

Do I Shun These Cities and States?

I’m no political crusader. I’ve invested in markets with high taxes and tenant-friendly regulations. But I’m more cautious when I do so because it adds expense and risk.

In particular, I try to avoid multifamily investments in areas with anti-landlord regulations. That doesn’t mean I avoid all real estate investments there, however. 

Take Southern California. Our passive real estate investing club got together a few months back to vet a property with 11 short-term rental cabins on it. The cabins were in an unincorporated mountain town 90 minutes outside of LA, which relies on tourism to survive. We felt extremely confident that there was no risk of short-term rentals being outlawed, and the cabins don’t allow long-term stays. 

Yes, California has tenant-friendly laws. But they don’t affect that property, and we felt comfortable making that investment together. 

Likewise, we consider industrial, retail, and storage properties in areas with anti-landlord regulations. We even consider mobile home parks with tenant-owned homes in these markets. 

Final Thoughts

But if I’m going to invest in a multifamily property in a high-tax, anti-landlord jurisdiction, I expect the deal to make up for it elsewhere with lower risk than usual. 

You invest however you like with your money. But when you evaluate risk, ignore these factors at your money’s peril.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

New San Francisco showroom offers private islands and yachts

New San Francisco showroom offers private islands and yachts

At Inman Connect Las Vegas, July 30-Aug. 1 2024, the noise and misinformation will be banished, all your big questions will be answered, and new business opportunities will be revealed. Join us.

Shopping online has its advantages, but when a specific question comes up about the ecosystem surrounding a private island outside of Fiji, nothing beats being able to ask an expert about the island in question.

That’s where a new showroom in San Francisco’s Jackson Square comes in: Private Islands Worldwide, which made its debut in the city last week, will assist the upper echelons of society in buying the private island, yacht, floating villa and even helicopter of their dreams, The San Francisco Standard reported.

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The firms behind the new shop are both German-based: shipbuilder Meyer Floating Solutions, helmed by head of sales and design Lars Kruse, and real estate firm Vladi Private Islands, owned and managed by Farhad Vladi (which also has locations in Canada and New Zealand).

Offerings vary widely, with private islands available for as little as $250,000 or for tens of millions, depending on a number of factors, including location, acreage, existing development, etc. The shop’s motto? “Peace, privacy & perfection,” providing some of the world’s most secretive and discerning individuals spotless, secluded places in which to bask in their wealth.

Given that the inventory of private islands is finite, finding offerings for clients is no doubt a bit of a challenge, but Vladi suggested that’s part of what makes them so special.

“The emotional links to islands are very strong,” Vladi told The San Francisco Standard. “The difficulty in the island business is to get islands on the market, because whoever has an island doesn’t want to give it away again.”

The broker said that someone will ultimately relinquish one of those precious islands for one of a number of reasons that real estate agents will be familiar with: death, debt and divorce.

Meanwhile, when it comes to Meyer’s custom-made yachts (no two are alike), the massive vessels can easily command several hundred million.

“If you’re talking about a 150-meter yacht, it starts at something around $370 million,” Kruse told The Standard. “But that’s, let’s say, a starting price.”

The firm’s helicopters, artworks and smaller vessels typically go for about another $100 million, he added.

The company does not publicly list prices for its floating villas, but those can be expected to run for a pretty penny as well. The structures are manufactured in Turku, Finland, and can range in size from about 1,400 square meters to 10,000 square meters.

The floating villas are often used as companions to superyachts and are supposed to be relatively environmentally friendly. The structures moor offshore, avoiding harming shoreline ecosystems, and they use hydrogen fuel cells to generate cleaner, more efficient energy.

In terms of where his clients originate from, Kruse only gave information in generalities, saying there’s “a certain market” from Europe, “a big market” in the Middle East and “a small market” in the United States. Presumably, a fair portion of that U.S. demand is in San Francisco, given that’s where the team has decided to set up shop.

Although a floating villa sounds like a nice, remote getaway for an oligarch or billionaire, Kruse said many of the firm’s clients are commercial and typically use the villas as investment properties or hotels.

Although demand remains for luxuries like private islands and yachts, San Francisco’s housing market is in turmoil. The market never quite recovered following the COVID-19 pandemic when tech hubs were hit hard by an exodus from cities. But in the last year, prices have continued to plunge, and once-coveted properties are seeing price cuts and selling at a loss.

In fact, nearly 20 percent of San Francisco homeowners are selling their property at a loss, more than four times the national share, and almost equal to the highest level seen in the last 11 years, according to a recent Redfin analysis.

Case in point, a penthouse at the San Francisco Four Seasons Residential that was first listed in November 2020 for $9.9 million is now asking only $3.75 million. Meanwhile, a home overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge, which was listed for the first time in over three decades last March for $12.8 million, only recently sold for the highly reduced price of $7.85 million, according to Zillow.

The city’s office vacancies also hit an all-time high during the first quarter of 2024, at 36.7 percent, according to CBRE. In recent years, major retailers also announced their departure from the city, including Macy’s, which announced the impending closure of its flagship store in Union Square, and Nordstrom, which last year announced the closure of two of its locations in the city. One of those locations had been at the San Francisco Centre mall, which had reportedly become a congregating area for a number of the city’s unhoused and drug users.

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