30 Units in 7 Years by BRRRRing, Building, Flipping, and Going All-In

After a strong case of “mommy guilt” working as an assistant principal, pregnant with her second child, Deba Douglas knew she needed a way out of the rat race. A run-in with Rich Dad Poor Dad prompted her to begin saving so she could start buying rental properties. She called her lender, found a property, and spent her and her husband’s entire savings on the down payment. Little did she know that this one decision would set her life’s course in an entirely different direction.

Now, just seven years after first looking into real estate investing, Deba has thirty rental properties and doesn’t work at her W2 anymore! How did she do it so fast, especially with kids to care for, bills to pay, and no prior experience in real estate investing? One BAD piece of beginner advice could have thrown her entire investing career off track, but she quickly learned from her mistake and leveled up at light speed!

Deba is sharing how she went from real estate investing zero to hero, doing everything from BRRRR (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat) investing, building new construction rental properties, flipping houses, and becoming an agent herself to help other investors. Want to escape the nine-to-five grind and get on the fast track to financial freedom? Do it all like Deba!

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Dave:
Have you ever met someone who just that kind of person, when they see a problem, they just kind of obsess about it and have to find a way to fix it? Well, today’s guest is one of those people. She had one of her first deals go badly because of a realtor who just wasn’t really on the up and up and gave some pretty durable advice, to be honest. So what did she do? Well, she doubled down. She kept doing the same strategy that she had tried once and was very successful on her very next deal, and she also became a realtor herself so she could provide more trustworthy services for investors in her area. Today she leads a team of agents and has more than 30 properties in her portfolio. It’s an amazing story. I’m excited to share it with you.
What’s up everyone? It’s Dave here with our weekly investor story, and our guest today is Deba Douglas, a realtor and investor in Dallas who left her assistant principal job six years ago and overcame that early failure and all the anxiety that comes with it to eventually find a niche and start scaling. Deba has a whole bunch of great stories to share, but I’m really excited to talk to her about a couple things. First and foremost, how she just found the confidence to keep trying the B strategy after her first deal was a pretty big disaster. I’m also curious about how she balanced starting essentially two businesses at the same time, because people talk about quitting your job to become an investor or an agent, but those are two different businesses, and when you do them at the same time, that’s a lot of work and a lot of things that you have to be learning and thinking about at the same time. And of course, we’re going to talk about how she still doing deals in Dallas’s hyper competitive market today and what advice you would give to anyone getting into real estate in this market. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Podcast. Thank you for being here.

Deba:
This is such an honor. Thank you so much for having me.

Dave:
Oh, it is our honor to have you here. We love having people who have been part of the BiggerPockets community for so long. Coming on the podcast, I’ll get into your whole story, but quickly, when did you join the BiggerPockets community?

Deba:
It was in 2017. My husband and I were just dabbling into real estate, trying to figure out how do we even navigate this world? And we stumbled on BiggerPockets and we literally stopped listening to music on our way to work and we started listening to BiggerPockets. And then late at night when our kids were asleep, we would come back and talk about the podcast that we just listened to and we would take notes and be like, okay, how can we execute and put this into action?

Dave:
That’s so cool. I am smiling ear to ear. That’s so cool. I love hearing that and hopefully it’s had a positive impact on your life. So why did you start dabbling into real estate, as you said?

Deba:
Yes, at the time I was in education, I was an assistant principal and I had already had one son and I was currently pregnant with my second, and I dealt with a lot of mommy guilt. I dealt with a lot of, I know this is not freedom. I really wanted more out my life. I didn’t want someone telling me when I could go on vacation, when I could be off of work and just yearning for financial freedom and wanting just more out of life. And I spent 16 years in education and one summer randomly I stumbled across Rich Dad, poor Dad that was in our office, and it literally shared everything that my heart desired, but I never had it to articulate really what I believed in. And that day I literally told my husband, we need to change what we’re doing. We need to really make some different lifestyle changes. We need to take some moments and sacrifice because real estate is going to be our vehicle for financial freedom.

Dave:
Yeah, well, it’s a story we’ve heard before, especially with Rich Dad poured out. It definitely strikes a chord with a lot of people and ignites that fire to get into financial freedom, but I found that financial freedom kind of means something different to different people. So what does it mean to you?

Deba:
Financial freedom to me means early in the morning, I’m getting to spend time with my kids and not rushing out the door because I have to go to work and I’m dealing with my commute. Financial freedom means to me, morning walks after I drop my kids off. Financial freedom means to me picking what I choose to do throughout my day and not feeling bogged down by just politics and everything else that may happen in my day to day and just enjoying the moment and really being present. And that’s what financial freedom truly means to me.

Dave:
Wow. You’re painting a beautiful picture. I like what I’m hearing there. It’s so interesting though, right? Because financial freedom, we talk about it, it it has something to do with money, but when you think about the things that you dream about, it’s not a dollar amount, it’s about a mindset or a sense of purpose or a sense of freedom or independence that a lot of jobs, corporate jobs, public jobs, unfortunately don’t really offer

Deba:
No at all.

Dave:
Okay, so tell me how you got this beautiful life that you’re describing. So you’re in 2017, you’re driving to work, you’re listening to BiggerPockets podcast. What did you do with some of the information you learned?

Deba:
Yes. So at that time, we didn’t know any other way to jump in, but other to call our lender that we bought our house with and said, let’s go buy a investment property. And he was like, sure, let’s do it. And so in 2018, we bought our first investment property, which was a duplex that we bought it for $128,000. And because we were going a conventional loan, we had to put 25% down because it was a duplex. And we started with that one and I was like, okay, this is working. But then we’re listening to BiggerPockets and people are saying they’re buying 3, 4, 5 properties in one year. And I’m like, we just put literally our whole savings in this one deal. So how do you scale? And that was a whole new turning point of like, okay, let’s take a deeper dive. Let’s really do some research on how you really can navigate. And as we did that, we learned something that I feel like it’s dear to my heart, the Burr process and the Burr strategy.

Dave:
And so you had just saved up some money and decided to invest it into this property and whereabout in the country is this?

Deba:
Yeah, so this was in Fort Worth, Texas. I’m in Dallas, Texas, so it’s about 20, 30 minutes away from where we lived.

Dave:
And I know it’s a totally different market now than it was then and we’ll talk about what you’re doing today, but was it hard to find a deal?

Deba:
It was because we really didn’t know what we were doing. We just thought, okay, we’re just looking at the numbers, how much is the cash flow? Okay, I think it’ll make sense, especially if we’re putting a significant amount down and we just said, we just need to get in the game, get started, and we’ll figure it out as we’re going.

Dave:
Yeah, okay. And part of figuring it out as you’re going sort of steered you to a bur

Deba:
Yes, because then I was like, okay, this is how we can scale if we learn the bur method. And so this was when we’re writing down the processes, trying to figure out, okay, who do we use for financing? Who do we use to do our cash out refinance in the end? And we figured it out and we bought our second property, which was also in Fort Worth, because at that time the market was a little bit better in Fort Worth and we bought this property for $65,000 and we went with the regular realtor that we found on Zillow, $65,000 for the purchase. The rehab was close to $25,000. Again, at that time we didn’t know anything about hard money lending, so we went back to our conventional lender and he was like, sure, you can do it. You just have to put another 10% down. And so we do that, and this is what’s the craziest story now that I think about it. I’m like, oh my gosh, that was all wrong. So many wrong ways to do this. We bought the property when we’re about to close, our lender comes back and says, well, the house is inhabitable, so you can’t close on this.
And we were like, well, what do we do? And then during that time, I go back to the realtor because again, we still don’t know what we’re doing. And she’s like, well, let me negotiate with the seller to see if they are willing to allow you to rehab the house. And then you come back and close on the house. And I trusted her. And so I said, okay, I think that makes sense. Let’s do this. And so we find a contractor and we put in negotiation for eight weeks to rehab the house, a house that we do not own, that we’re just rehabbing. Thank goodness it all worked out. We were able to rehab the house. It was a two bedroom, one bath, and we just configured the layout and turned it into a three bedroom, two full bath so that we could get more value and really get to that appraisal value. So we did that and we were able to close on it. And then we got tenants in the home, and I think they were paying at the time, maybe 1100. Our mortgage was about 700 a month, so we were getting decent cashflow. We had to wait six months at that time for seasoning to do our cash out refinance. The realtor was like, at the time, she said it should appraise for 125,000.
Guess what? It only appraised for 103,000. Ooh.

Dave:
Okay. Alright. Well, I think we need to dig into this deal a little bit because I have a lot of questions. So let’s rewind the clock. So you did your first deal, it went okay. Then you wanted to get into Burr, and I should just take a minute and explain to this. If you listen to this podcast, you probably know this, but for anyone who’s New Burr is an acronym. It stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat. So it’s this process that allows you to buy a rental property, then you renovate it and improve the value. This is called forced depreciation or value add investing. Then you rent it out, you get tenants in place so that you’re bringing in some cashflow and then you refinance it and do a cash out refinance to pull some of the money out. And then you just do that again.
And the reason Burr is so popular and is such a great idea is because it allows you to make money in a similar way to doing a flip, but you get to hold onto the asset. And by doing that refinancing piece, you can take some of the money and the appreciation that you’ve generated and then use it for future deals. And so it sounds like Deba, this is why you were interested in it because it’s a great way to scale if you don’t have tons and tons of cash because most people don’t have tons and tons of cash, you could sort of recycle your money a little bit into multiple deals. So that was the idea, right?

Deba:
That was the idea.

Dave:
Okay.

Deba:
Yeah, that was the theory behind it.

Dave:
That’s a good idea. That’s a great idea, yeah. Okay. But what happened was you were looking at a deal that it was uninhabitable basically.

Deba:
Yes, yes.

Dave:
Okay. I think just for people who are learning a lot of times, and it sounds like you learned this the painful way, most conventional lenders, if you were to just go to your run of the mill lender, they’re not going to lend on an uninhabitable property. They want something that is in good living condition so that from their perspective, one, they don’t want you losing a lawsuit or anything. But also they want to know that if worse comes to worse and they foreclose, they have an asset that’s valuable that they could go sell to a homeowner. And they didn’t have that. So who were you working with as a lender on this deal?

Deba:
I think it was Fairway Mortgage at that time. They did most of our lending that we had for our personal home and then that last property. And so we just had a good relationship with them.

Dave:
And how far along were you before you realized that this going to work with them?

Deba:
We were about a week before we were going to close when they called us and said, Hey, the appraiser went out and said that we cannot lend on something that’s not habitable. And I’m like, oh my goodness.

Dave:
Okay. And then you went to your agent for advice?

Deba:
Yes, I did go to my agent.

Dave:
And let’s just, I’ll put it this way. Knowing what you know now, what would you have done differently on this deal?

Deba:
I would’ve definitely gotten more comms from different realtors. And just because at that point, at that time, I just thought realtors are all the same. They all went to the same schooling, they all got their licensing, their same, so they all have the same common knowledge. That was definitely a big no for me. And even when six months in seasoning, we called her and it was like, oh my gosh, I did not appraise it. What we anticipated, can you help me? It was complete crickets. Complete crickets. She never picked up the phone, she never called me back. And in that moment, I learned a valuable lesson that I should never depend on one person’s idea or strategy for me to make decisions for my future. And shortly after that, I became a realtor myself because I was like, I got to do

Dave:
Enough with these other people. Yes.
Well, I will just say that I totally agree. There is a big difference between agents and realtors, just like there’s a difference in lenders and any business. And if you are working with an agent, you should work with one who knows how to work with real estate investors. We can match you with one for [email protected] if you want to check that out. But sorry, you had to learn that lesson the hard way demo. It’s not fun. So at that point, they gave you the advice to renovate before owning the property. There are a lot of risks to that, obviously. Did you think about, or did anyone recommend maybe just using a hard money lender or a different lending source instead so that you could close rather than having to take on that risk?

Deba:
No one.

Dave:
Okay.

Deba:
No one.

Dave:
Is that what you would’ve done now or would you have walked away from the deal? What would you have done? What would 2024 de would’ve done with this deal?

Deba:
I would’ve definitely used a hard money lender, or I would’ve used my own liquid cash. We had liquid cash to cover that $65,000 purchase.

Dave:
Oh, so you could have made up the appraisal gap?

Deba:
Yes.

Dave:
Okay, got it. Yeah, that makes sense. So you learned a painful lesson, but did it turn out okay in the long run?

Deba:
Yes. We still own this property to this day, and I think it’s a good reason why I have this property still in my portfolio because it always reminds me to do my due diligence on every property. Regardless of how successful I was on my last property, anything could happen. And I’m always telling people most times, because I am a realtor and I specialize in working with investors, I will usually tell them, my honest to god truth of I really would not recommend buying that property, or I would because of these reasons, and give them ample of data to make that decision on their own.

Dave:
Good for you. That’s just a sign of prioritizing the long-term relationship, which is really what matters, right? A lot of, I don’t want to paint out people to be immoral, but a lot of times as an agent you’re just thinking like, oh, I’m going to sell this person a house and then I’m not going to hear from them probably for seven to 10 years. Maybe they’ll move again. But you want to find not just an agent, but all people you work with in your real estate business should be thinking about you as a long-term partner. You don’t literally have to have an equity partnership with these people, but if you have an agent who helps you be successful on your first deal, the investor’s going to use you with your second deal and your third deal. Same thing with your property manager. And it’s really just try and suss out if people are trying to make quick cash off you or they really value sort of a long-term business relationship, it will help you so, so much. Alright, it’s time for a break, but we’ll have more of this week’s investor story on the other side.
Welcome back to our investor story with De Douglas. Alright, de, so this second deal didn’t go exactly as you expected, at least at the time, but you kept going. So what happened for you after that?

Deba:
Yeah, so shortly after that, after I started making a decent passive income, I sat down with my husband and we both decided that one of us is going to have to make a decision and quit our nine to five job to really pursue this because we really wanted to create generational wealth for our kids. And I was like, me, me, me because I’m kind of over my job already, so let me please be the person to do that. And then we started saving because again, I was an assistant principal, I had a decent income. So to walk away from that income and just depend on being a realtor and getting passive income, that’s a huge step backwards. So it took us about a year. We just kind of cut back on going traveling, excessive spending. We just literally took that sacrifice, which was hard, but we really focused on delayed gratification and doing so we decided to October of 2018, I walked away from my assistant principal job in the middle of the year and I just said, you know what? I’m just going to step out on faith and see what happens. And it was the best decision I could have ever done in my life, the very best decision.

Dave:
That’s so great. Well, I’m happy it worked out for you, and I know that is the goal of a lot of people who listen to this podcast is to be able to quit their job and do real estate. I want to just ask you a couple questions though about that decision because I think a lot of people are wondering how to do the same. So your husband was still working, right?

Deba:
Yes.

Dave:
Because one thing about real estate investing, if you quit your full-time job, healthcare is a big question. So were you still able to get healthcare and some benefits from your husband’s employment situation?

Deba:
Yes, I was able keep the benefits with my husband.

Dave:
Okay. That’s really nice. I always think that’s a nice combo is if your husband sounds like has a relatively stable job, it allows you to take some risk, especially when you have a significant other. If one of you has the benefits or a stable income that you can rely on and you still have to make sacrifices as Deba said, but that allows you to sort of go out there and spend a year as you did, building up a new business, building up a clientele as an agent. Were you ever scared or nervous about the decision?

Deba:
Oh my gosh, I had so many sleepless nights. I would wake up in the middle of the night, you don’t have a job, you don’t have a job. What are you going to, you’ve always had a job. What are you going to do? And being a realtor, it’s a beautiful world. People say that you’re going to make all this money, but it takes a lot of work to build your clientele. It takes a lot of work to try to convince people that one day I was an educator and now, oh, you want me to sell your house or you want me to show you how to buy a house? And so I literally just utilized social media at the time and I just posted on my journey and I focused on, I’m just going to do rentals and if I can do rentals, I’m getting, I understand how to talk to people, how to talk to the listing agent, how to just navigate the world of real estate. And that first year I didn’t know what to do. I just knew to talk to people and love on people, and I sold over 40 houses that first

Dave:
Year. Oh my what?

Deba:
Yes.

Dave:
Oh my God, that is incredible. Wow. With the people you knew or how did you find these people?

Deba:
Social media and it was free advertising. I just posted in random groups and I posted whatever I was doing. If I was on my way to a showing, it may have been a rental showing I was just on my way to go show a house and I even dabbled with the real estate investing. I would go and look at investment properties and I just brought everyone on my journey of decided to quit my education job and jumped into real estate. And so how my husband and I set everything up was he would take care of our monthly bills and any income that I got from real estate, we would use that to reinvest and buy more properties.

Dave:
Well, this story I feel like is doubly impressive because you quit your job, but you were basically starting two businesses at the same time. You were starting a rental property business and becoming a realtor. How did you allocate your time? Was it hard to do both or did you really prioritize becoming a realtor that first year?

Deba:
I really prioritize becoming a realtor, and I wake up really, really early in the morning before my kids get up, before the rest of the world is up. And so that was when I would focus on big projects. I still do that to this day and I really just block out my time and I do a really good job with my time management, and I think that’s just the same skills that I use as a principal. I just transferred them over to this job.

Dave:
Yeah, I would imagine that being a vice principal, you have to learn a about time allocation and being very efficient with your energy and your attention.

Deba:
Yes.

Dave:
So you spent time being a realtor, it sounds like that went extremely well. Were you doing deals that first year as well?

Deba:
Oh yeah. Within the first three to four months, I was already buying my next investment property. That was a burr. And then while I was doing that, I was also showing houses to get more income and just kind of kept it going. And because it was all real estate and I was so passionate about it, it didn’t even feel like work. I enjoyed every aspect of being a realtor and being an investor.

Dave:
Wow, very cool. I love hearing people who find real estate to be so enjoyable and that they’re passionate about it because there are a lot of people who get into real estate and recognize what a great investment it is and a great way to make money, but it’s just a different, it’s another job. It might be a more profitable job, it might be a better long-term retirement plan than your other job, but it’s just another job. But it sounds like you just genuinely find real estate kind of fun.

Deba:
Yeah, I think it’s amazing how you can see something that looks like it’s unworthy and you can go in and create new value in the house and then you create a home for someone new in the neighborhood for them to move in. I mean, I think it’s just an amazing opportunity to be a part of that.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. Actually, it’s sort of funny how I found my job at BiggerPockets was because I had been investing for five or so years and I was in grad school for data analytics, and I was like, how am I going to use this new degree that I’m getting? I didn’t really have a plan. I sort of did it on a whim and I was doing what everyone says. They’re like, think about what you’re passionate about. And I was thinking, what do I do in my spare time? And what I used to do is just ride my bike around Denver, just go to open houses that I had no intention of buying just because I found it so fun. And then I was like, oh, I love real estate. This is what I love. There you go. And honestly, like you said, it makes it not feel like work. If this is something that you’re super passionate about, there’s so many options within this very broad industry of real estate that you can find something that is profitable but also something that you actually look forward to doing each and every

Deba:
Day. Absolutely.

Dave:
So let’s fast forward to today. What does your portfolio look like and what kind of deals are you doing?

Deba:
Yeah, so today I have about 30 rental properties that we self-manage. Some of those rental properties are properties that we built from the ground up that we just kept the best rentals. We also flip about two to three properties a year just to help increase some capital. On the realtor side, I have a real estate team and we specialize with working with investors because we know how to analyze deals and we know how to do all of that. So it’s, we just created both worlds, meshed them together, and we’re constantly looking for new ways. We also have some rental properties that we’ve acquired through creative financing like seller financing and things of that nature.

Dave:
Wow, very cool. Okay. Were you mostly buring the last few years to make the most of that capital?

Deba:
Yes. Most of those were burrs and there were those back to back to back.

Dave:
All right, so that’s what we were talking about earlier where you can just keep recycling that capital and you get the benefits of value add investing, but you get to hold onto the property and you get to buy more properties with the equity that you gain. At what point did you start doing ground up construction? That’s a whole other thing.

Deba:
Yeah, it was pretty random. It was actually on a street that my husband grew up on, and when we would come and visit his mom, and I would always wonder who owns those lots. And so one day I asked this mom and I was like, do you know the owner of those lots? I had no intentions of building, I didn’t even know what I was doing, but I was like, Hey, maybe I could buy the lots. And so she connected me to the owner and we were able to negotiate terms and there were two lots right next to each other and they had homes in the past, but they got demolished. So I was like, okay, I’m sure they have water and utilities. I did my due diligence with the city and we decided to buy those lots and a year later we built one. It was a successful process, and then next year we will built another one.

Dave:
Wow. Very cool. Congratulations. That’s very fun.

Deba:
Thank you.

Dave:
Was it opportunistic or is that sort of a reaction to market conditions where it’s a little bit harder to find cashflow on existing homes?

Deba:
I think it was a little bit of both. I think I am a executor by just natural and I’m a risk taker, so I just thought, you know what? There’s an opportunity right there. Let’s jump on it. Let’s see what happens. And we were able to build, I mean there are pretty much stock homes. There were 12 or 1300 square feet homes, three bedrooms, two bath, but they’re renting out for 2300. Our mortgages are less than 1700. And I mean would they stay rented really in low maintenance because they’re brand new?

Dave:
Yeah. That’s great. And what about burrs? Are you still able to find bur that make sense in today’s economic environment?

Deba:
Yes, I will say I am able to make them make sense, but that refinance cash out portion of it, it’s really diminishing. I mean, I make maybe a thousand, 2000 where a couple years back I was making 50,000 on those refinances.

Dave:
I see.

Deba:
But ultimately, I will say right now, I love the fact that the prices are low, although interest rates are higher, I know interest rates will change over time, and then at those points I will go back and do a refinance. So it’s just being a little bit more aggressive on the strategy and just knowing where you are in the market right now.

Dave:
We have to take a quick break, but stick around because a little later in the show, Deba is going to share how she’s reacting to today’s market conditions in the Dallas market. Let’s jump back in with Deb. I know Texas right now and we’re recording this sort of towards the end of September, 2024 is actually one of the few states in the country where there are corrections going on. Have you seen prices decline in your area?

Deba:
I have. I’ve seen them decline. I feel that sellers are starting to realize that the pricing are declining. I’m starting to see that on the MLS and I’m starting to see it from off market wholesaler pricing as well.

Dave:
And how do you feel about that? Because I think a lot of, especially newer investors look at price declines and they think, oh, I don’t want to invest there. Whereas some investors are like, oh, that’s a great time to buy. So how do you evaluate the risk versus opportunity of investing in a declining market?

Deba:
I think it’s an amazing time to buy. And the reason why I think it’s an amazing time to buy. I’m able to buy the value of this property at the lowest point. And I feel what we’re going through, especially in the DFW market is it’s starting to stabilize. And those years of having overrated pricing, those are starting to diminish. And now we’re coming to a stabilization. And if I’m able to acquire as many properties right now, once those interest rates, which we already starting to see those slowly declining, I just do a refinance and get a lower interest rate and now my cashflow increases and I didn’t have to do anything other than just continue to buy in this price point.

Dave:
But what about the flip side as a property owner, does it concern you at all seeing the theoretical value of your property go down? And I say theoretical because of course in any market you don’t actually lose money unless you sell, and no one knows exactly what it would sell for unless you put it on the market. But I’m sure you’re an agent, you see it happening. You just said you see prices going down. So how does that make you feel about your existing portfolio?

Deba:
It doesn’t make me feel either any way because we’re keeping our portfolio for the long term, and so it may just not be the right time to sell any of those properties. And we’re looking at just the refinance for the interest rates. I’m not really looking at the value because we know year after year keeping a property for longer than 10 years, that value over time will increase.

Dave:
Yeah, I feel the same way. And listen, this is a privileged position for people who own existing real estate and who have the cashflow to live off of, but I find that minor fluctuations in prices in the properties I own. Honestly, I don’t even think about it. And I think that a lot of people who are just getting into it, they hear about ups and downs and they’re thinking that this is going to have huge impacts on their life. But honestly, unless you are forced to sell during a downside, it really doesn’t matter. It’s what they call a paper loss. It’s just theoretical. And no one wants to see that. No one wants to buy at a price before a market declines. Those are things you should absolutely try to avoid. But I encourage people to think about the pros and cons of any type of market because as Deb was saying, yes, in theory some of the values of her properties have gone down, but if you’re investing for the long run, the flip side of that is that there might be more opportunities to negotiate with sellers.
They might be more willing to drop price, there might be more inventory on the market. So those are flip sides. Of course, the opposite is true. You could be in a market where you have a good chance of immediate appreciation because things are going well, but you’re going to have more competition. Sellers are not going to negotiate. You might have to make an offer without seeing the property or waive your inspection. So there are always trade-offs with every kind of market, good and bad. It really sort of just depends on your strategy. And that’s why I wanted to ask your philosophy about this demo because it’s kind of different for every investor.

Deba:
Absolutely. And I really think the biggest thing that I had to overcome was just my mindset and realize that, okay, any deal, I’m going to find 10 reasons why I should not buy it, and then I may have other reasons why I should buy it. So it really depending on your strategy of like, okay, internally, what is my end goal? What am I trying to achieve? And you have to just push through some of the naysayers. You may have to change the group of people that you’re hanging around because if you’re around people that may not own properties, they’re scared and they’re like, oh my gosh, don’t do it. The market is this and that. But I just tell people, you got to buy something. Once you buy something, everything changes the way you view things, the way you approach the value of the property, all of that changes. You just have to get in the game.

Dave:
I was laughing when you were saying that. I agree with you. It’s like I’ve never articulated that way, but I have the same mentality. I’m like, I’m going to come up with a thousand reasons why this property is terrible.
And then if I wake up the next day and I’m like, I’m still going to buy it, I just buy it. It’s like as long as you understand the risk, I think there’s always risk in every investment. Don’t get me wrong, real estate is true, but I would be okay with losing money or having a property not perform as well if I understand the risk ahead of time. Absolutely. If I’m like, Hey, that roof might give out in five years and I’ll come out of pocket, and then the roof gives out, you’re like, okay, I took that fully informed risk to me. What scares me is what do I not know? And investing in something when you don’t fully understand what you’re getting yourself into, which is why we have this podcast and people can listen to stories like Debas to sort of expose yourself to some of the risks. Some of the challenges today we learned about one with renovating a property you don’t own, but they’re countless of other examples just like that.

Deba:
Absolutely. And I mean we still flip even in this market. We just have to, we’re very conservative on our numbers. One extra thing that I’ve been noticing is that we kind stay under affordable housing, so we keep houses that we are flipping the A RV or that after repair value needs to be about 400,000 or less, and one extra tip that I’m learning in my flips, I’m adding just a sprinkle of luxury updates and finish outs in them, and that’s really helping me get my houses off the market pretty quickly.

Dave:
Oh, okay. Very nice. Even with affordable housing?

Deba:
Yes, even with affordable housing, so we’ll do different things like we’ll have an island and we’ll have the waterfall courts countertops all the way around the island. We’re putting mud rooms in the laundry area. Just adding a significant small touches that it really doesn’t break the bank, but it does make that buyer feel like, oh, this house, I could see this in a 500, $600,000 price point.

Dave:
I like that because then when the buyer’s comparing things side by side, you have an advantage. You have a reason for them to pick you, even if they’re pretty similar in all other respects, it just gives you an extra reason to pick DE’s property. Right. Alright, Deba, one last question here before we get out of here. What are your goals going forward? It sounds like you’ve accomplished quite a lot in the seven years you’ve been investing. What’s next for you?

Deba:
Yes. So I would say my next goal is continue to do the bur. I would like to get to at close to 60 residential homes as rentals. I would like to continue to do flips, maybe go into a higher price point depending on how the market works and continue building. I really enjoy the building process and I just want to continue to build and continue to support my clients that are learning to become investors. And my team is always excited to work with new investors.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, it sounds like you really like value add. Those are all value add strategies. B, flipping, taking something that’s not being put to its highest and best use and maximizing it, making the most out of it. I lied to you though I said that that was my last question, but I actually have one more question for you. What would you advise a hypothetical client today in today’s environment with everything that’s going on, interest rates, the economy, if someone was trying to get into real estate in your Dallas-Fort Worth area, what do you think a good first investment would be?

Deba:
Yeah, so I would say your first investment would probably be doing the birth strategy, but being very intentional with where you’re buying that property. You want to buy properties that it’s close to the metro area where you’ll always have ample of jobs. You want to buy properties that are low to get into it just at any point if you have to turn in and flip it, you have that opportunity to flip it really quick. If you go over budget, I would always tell a new client we have to come in and have multiple exit strategies. Those worlds of just saying, I’m just going to buy something, I’m just going to flip it, or I’m just going to buy something and rent it out. Those days are kind of over right now with this market, so you have to be able to pivot and be very flexible with making your decisions.

Dave:
Very good advice. And what price point do you think is that sweet spot, at least in your market? What do you need to just rough ballpark, what is the acquisition price and how much money would you have to put in for a renovation?

Deba:
I will say we need to buy something around 160,000 and it’s probably about a thousand to 1100 square foot home. Maybe it has a one car garage. We can convert that garage and maybe it’s a three bedroom. Initially we can convert that garage, add a bathroom, and now we have a four bedroom, two bath. I’ve added value, so I know my value’s going to increase, my rent is going to go up if I choose to rent it out or even if I choose to sell it, I’m going to have a significant amount of value compared to where I started. And then my A RV should be about three 20 or less.

Dave:
Okay, got it. That’s excellent advice. Thank you. And how much would that renovation cost do you think? Just ballpark,

Deba:
About 50 to 55,000.

Dave:
Okay. So you’re talking about buying something, you’re putting 30, 40 grand down doing the renovation, but ideally when you do the burr, you keep some of that down payment in there. Obviously you have to do that, but you can take some of that money out and do something else with it.

Deba:
Yes, absolutely. And really think about talking to different hard money lenders because there are different hard money lenders that can offer more money where you’re not bringing so much cash to the table as well.

Dave:
Right. Well, that’s excellent advice. I know it’s always helpful to hear your story of course. But given today the challenges of the economy right now and find a cash flow, I always just want to know what people are doing and recommending themselves. And clearly you’ve found a way to make deals work even in a big metro area, a big popular metro area, even in today’s interest rate environment. Well de thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate it.

Deba:
Thank you. It was such an honor to be here.

Dave:
Oh, it was an honor to have you. And we’ll of course put your contact information in the show notes and show description below if anyone wants to connect with de. Thank you all so much for listening. I’m Dave Meyer for BiggerPockets, and we’ll see you soon for another episode of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast.

Help Us Out!

Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

In This Episode We Cover:

  • The one critical mistake Deba made on her second deal that could have cost her severely
  • The truth about becoming a real estate agent (and why it isn’t as easy as you think)
  • Regular realtors vs. investor-friendly realtors (you CANNOT mix them up!)
  • When it’s time to quit your job and become a full-time real estate investor
  • Why Deba is still buying in a market that is seeing price declines in 2024
  • The massive benefits of new construction rental properties (and why they make sense in 2024)
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Immigration Boosts Renter Demand, Builder Confidence Is Growing

Did immigrants help keep landlords afloat during this tough housing market? New data may be pointing to just that. Today, we’re discussing one rarely mentioned housing market factor—immigration and immigrant renters. We’re talking about documented AND undocumented immigrants, asylum seekers, and what the effect of the massive influx in immigration has been on the renting market.

John Burns from John Burns Research and Consulting, joined by VP of Demographics Eric Finnigan, is back on the show to discuss immigration, household formation, migration patterns, mortgage rates, and the effects each of these factors has on the housing market. With immigration exploding (we’re in one of the largest immigration years EVER), the next obvious question is: how is this affecting rents/available homes? John and Eric bring in new data to share how immigration may have “bailed out” landlords during the worst parts of the market.

But that’s not all. We also touch on John Burns Research’s newest house-flipping survey and how flippers are surviving (thriving?) in today’s market. Why are builders becoming more bullish on the housing market? And could the recent mortgage rate cuts open the spigot of homebuyer demand in this already supply-constrained market? We’re digging into the data that answers these questions in today’s show.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
The real estate market has been a challenge for a while. We talk about this all the time on the show, you probably hear a lot about supply and interest rates being high, but today we’re bringing on a new but really important dataset into the mix of your understanding of what’s happening in the broader housing market, it’s immigration, and how the influx of new people coming into the country is impacting the housing market. And of course, we’re still going to talk about interest rates and supply and all that as we start to look forward to 2025, but I think the new data that we’re going to bring into this conversation is going to shed new light and provide new insights into the housing market as we start looking forward to 2025.
Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market. Today, I am joined by John Burns who runs a company called John Burns Research and Consulting. They are specifically focused on gathering and analyzing real estate data, and he’s even brought on a bonus guest, Eric Finnegan, who is the vice president of demographics for the firm. And we’re going to get into some new data and research that they’re doing that honestly, I haven’t seen anywhere else. And I think it’s going to really help us all understand what we could expect in the years to come. We’re going to be talking about household formation, which if you don’t know, is sort of like population growth, but it’s actually a bit more important for the housing market than population growth. We’ll, of course talk about interest rates and the implications of fed decisions into 2025, and we’re even going to talk about a overlooked factor in today’s housing market. Helicopter parents, let’s bring on John and Eric. John Burns, welcome back to the podcast. Thanks for being here.

John:
Happy to be here, Dave. I’m excited. Your clientele is still buying a lot of houses and mine has slowed down.

Dave:
Okay, well this will be a good overlap then.

John:
Yeah,

Dave:
And Eric Finnigan, thanks for joining us for your first ever appearance here on the market.

Eric:
Yeah, thanks. Looking forward to it.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, John, I’d love to just start at the top because you and your team doing a very impressive amount of research across the whole real estate investing industry. So what are some of the trends in the market that are standing out to you right now?

John:
The big trend is demographics and immigration, and that’s why I asked Eric to join me because he knows it better than I do. We saw, including this year, I think we’re going to have three of the largest immigrant years ever. Going back to Ellis Island. I know a lot of your clientele and a lot of our clientele buys homes and rents them out. Eric did some great analysis on this. We basically over a three year period, we think we got 700,000 more household formations than we normally would, and 600,000 of ’em were renters. So that’s been a big change in the market. It’s caused a lot of people who felt the multifamily market was going to go through a three year downturn, the single family rental market, some of the same to get way more optimistic because they can see the bottom here.

Dave:
And just for clarification purposes, are we talking about legal migration?

Eric:
So it’s both. Where we’ve seen it actually is in administrative records through the Border Protection Patrol Agency where their people are crossing the border, they’re actually waiting to get picked up and processed into the system. They claim asylum and that basically gives them a right to be in the country for a couple of years until they’re seen by a court judge, an immigrant court judge.

Dave:
And so just logistically, does that mean most of these folks are centered around border states, Texas, Arizona? Is that where most of this household formation is concentrated?

Eric:
That’s a big part of it, but they’re ending up all over the country. They’re ending up in Colorado, in Denver, in Chicago, in the Tri-state area in the northeast. It’s really all over

John:
Wherever you’re coming from. If there’s an established community like there is in downtown Denver for people from Venezuela, they steer to downtown Denver. And there’s a lot in Iowa and it is actually done because look, you probably got relatives, there are people, there are people that speak the same language as you. There are people that can tell you what the laws are in America and you can get settled a hell of a lot faster. It’s actually, I think, pretty wise versus letting everybody just hang out along the border.

Dave:
Yeah, well, there’s probably no economic opportunity or enough services just too hyper concentrated in those states, and it’s obviously not fair for certain areas of the country to take on the entire burden of all those folks.

John:
But this is also why you do hear every corner of the country talking about this. They’re all seeing it in their neighborhoods.

Dave:
Can I maybe just back up a little bit and then define what household formation is in the first place? A little bit different than population growth, and I would argue more important for real estate investors,

John:
Way more important. In fact, I would even stop looking at population growth. What I would look at is job growth because you’re trying to rent or sell a home to somebody who’s got, they need a job and then a household formation means that some people, they’re not staying with friends, they’re not staying with parents, they went out on their own and somebody is heading a household. So that’s kind of the wonky term. That data is harder to get. And these immigrants, usually it’s 4.4 people per household. They tend to be a little more crowded or some are just staying with friends. This last cohort’s been 5.4 people per household. So really the household formation could have been higher.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. And just to household formation is just a very good measurement of demand in a given market. Just as an example, say you had two roommates living together after college and they ultimately decide they each want to go their own way and they both want to go rent a single family apartment that creates an additional household without growing population, but now there’s more demand for housing units in that area. And so that’s why I think John is saying it’s more important than population growth because as an investor, anyone who cares about the housing market, this is going to be the real measurement of what level of housing is needed in the United States. So people are coming in, they’re moving to different cities, and a lot of them are moving to with existing folks it sounds like. But are we seeing increases in overall demand for housing in a lot of these epicenters of where migrants are winding up?

John:
Oh yeah. No. What we’ve seen at the same time, and this is what I was talking about in intro on multifamily, is we’ve seen a surge of construction of apartments. You’re like, who’s going to fill these things up? And it’s the immigrants. And there’s still the other migration we’re seeing around the country, out of the expensive markets into the more affordable markets. And that’s not just crossing state borders. That’s even now with this work from TRE just going to the next city five miles down the freeway, you only got to come in to work three days a week. That’s become the affordability solution for a lot of people.

Dave:
This is total naivete on my part, but are people with this immigration status where they’re awaiting to be seen by a court? Are they allowed to rent apartments to work? What’s their day-to-day like?

Eric:
So once they are in the court system, they have to wait a little bit of time, but they can file for something called just a work permit essentially, which lets them apply and work in jobs legally. It gives them a social security card, so they then pay taxes on that job and the income that they’re earning. They can rent apartments at that point as well. And up until last year, the waiting period was five months and it’s actually, it’s gone down to 30 days now. So within 30 days of someone being processed into the system, they can apply for that work permit and then start working legally pay taxes, rent apartments, almost behave in the housing market like a full-time resident.

Dave:
And do those figures get counted in labor data?

John:
If I hired one of those people, I mean, they survey me as an employer and if I picked one of them up, they’re on my payroll, they would count. The other survey is they call people at their house and say, are you working? And there’s a percentage of that. So theoretically that’s the case. Whether those people’s phone numbers are actually in the system is a better question.

Dave:
Okay, cool. So what do you think the big takeaways here are for the housing market given this really large amount of immigrants coming into the country?

John:
Well, the big takeaway is people that rent homes, which I know is your clientele and landlords got bailed out. And I know politically that’s a hot button, but from housing demand standpoint, this 50 or high in supply that came to market got filled up. So we are going through, I’ll call the multifamily valuation correction because of rising interest rates and because expenses in some area have been rising faster than rents, which is not good with insurance costs going up, but if you had a lot more vacant units, your apartment or you couldn’t rent your house, you’d be dropping rents even more. And that’s the big takeaway is that you haven’t had to go through that in most areas of the country.

Dave:
That’s so interesting. And yeah, just to provide some context, people who listen to the show probably know this, talked about it a lot, but we are experiencing a massive glut of multifamily supply coming online for the last year or so, and it’s probably, it’s projected, I think, to extend at least into the first half of 2025. And so there has been some downward pressure on rents because of that. There’s just not enough people moving on a monthly basis to absorb all of these units. But obviously when you have hundreds of thousands of new households and individuals entering in the market, it can help soften that below and reduce vacancy rates particularly it sounds like in these couple of markets where people are mostly headache. Exactly. And is this happening in urban areas, suburban areas, or just sort of universally with cross markets?

John:
The urban areas still to me, they’re pretty empty.

Dave:
It’s

John:
Crazy. Yeah, it is crazy. One hobby of mine is I’ve been to all the major league baseball parks, so I went to six new parks this year in Pittsburgh and St. Louis and the ones I hadn’t been to since they’ve been built. I can tell every one of those downtowns what is a ghost

Dave:
Town really. Okay, John, what’s the coolest baseball park?

John:
Oh, I’m a hundred percent biased. It’s San San Francisco. You can go to the upper deck and see the entire bay. I mean, they can hit a baseball into the bay.

Dave:
That is very fun.

John:
Probably the best thing about going to all those parks is getting the local food experience and there’s a lot of great San Francisco restaurants in the ballpark, so they’re the best by far.

Dave:
Okay. All right. I’m going to have to take you up on that. I am a baseball fan, maybe one of three in my generation, but I do love baseball, so I’ll have to check that out. Alright, we have to take a quick break, but we’ll be right back with more research from John and Eric, welcome back to On the Market. I’m here with John Burns and Eric Finnegan. I know you all do a ton of research in your work, but does this change any forecasts you have for rent growth or vacancy going into 2025?

John:
Massively. So we had a very, very bearish view. We still have the most bearish forecast that I’ve seen on how much multifamily construction we’re going to see this year and next year, but we were more bearish 18 months ago, so we thought it was going to fall from the five hundreds down into the high 200 thousands per year. And now we’re around 340,000 because we also survey a huge number of apartment developers and their lenders and equity providers who basically said, we’re out, we’re not knitting, and now they’re telling us we’re starting to come back. So that’s why we’re more optimistic that this is all going to stabilize more quickly.

Dave:
Eric, what are your takes on that? Because I imagine that a lot of the new supply is a class kind of neighborhoods. Does that fit the types of households that are going to be looking for apartments in the coming year? So

Eric:
The immigrants coming into the country are not going to be renting class A urban apartments, but they are adding to the renter household demand. So the people that we’re say maybe in class C properties, they might be moving up into more class B and class B up into class. So it’s not a direct demand where someone coming across the border is going to end up in a brand new apartment with sky high market rents, but they are keeping the occupancy rate for the whole market very high nationally. It hasn’t dipped below the mid nineties, which when you think of a 50 or high in new supply, that’s pretty surprising.

Dave:
And newer construction that you’re talking about coming online, are we talking about urban downtown areas or some suburban areas which have been growing so quickly?

John:
There were about eight to 10 markets where everybody wanted to build apartments or Austin was one Nashville or another. Those are the most oversupplied markets.
I’m not seeing the construction come there. They’re coming more into the suburbs. I do think this work from home trend has created more demand outward, things are more affordable. The other thing that we’re seeing, and we’ve been a huge beneficiary of this, we’re super lucky, is this new build to rent trend, as people call it, which is building rental homes. A lot of them actually look like Casitas and some of them are attached, but they’re single story. And that’s even becoming a mixed use component of a big apartment complex where somebody would’ve done 300 garden apartments, now they’re going to do 250 garden apartments and maybe because it’s lower density, 35 of these lower density CEDA type units, which are super popular.

Dave:
Okay, very cool. And I know you look into this a lot, but it sounds like sentiment among home builders is starting to increase right now. What is that based off of?

John:
So there’s some data out there that’s very misleading. So the National Association of Home Builders has a housing market index and it doesn’t look that great. So people are saying, yeah, the home builders aren’t doing that well. It’s a survey of people that mostly built three homes a year, so it’s kind of a small builder, which there’s lots of those. The publicly traded home builders, and I’m going to put into this, the subsidiaries of some publicly traded companies, like a bunch of Japanese companies in Berkshire Hathaway are now 58% of all the new home construction in the market. 15 years ago they were 24, their balance sheets have never been stronger. Their margins are phenomenal. They’ve changed the way they do business where they’re actually paying somebody to hold the land for them and take the risk and they’re using that so they’re able to grow and invest their capital and growing their business and buying back shares. And if you look at what’s happened to the publicly traded home builders this cycle, you wish you would’ve loaded up on the stocks years ago because they’ve all absolutely killed it, which is absolutely counterintuitive of what you would’ve thought would happen when mortgage rates go up.

Dave:
Well, let’s turn to it to mortgage rates and interest rates. It is inevitable in today’s day and age that we have to talk about it. And we are just for reference recording this towards the end of September, about a week after we heard about the 50 basis point cut from the Fed. John, what do you make of it? What was your instant reaction to the news?

John:
I mean, I wasn’t surprised at all. I mean, Jay Powell has become a complete telegraph of everything he’s going to do. He knows the market won’t freak out when you do that. The mortgage rates have these short-term rate declines built into them. And so mortgage rates really didn’t come down very much when he did that because they already had that expectation in them. They trade more like 10 year security. So they look at inflation and they look at what the Fed funds rate is most likely to be over the next 10 years and get a premium over that. Rates have come from seven down to six. The market is indicating it should go into the low fives over the next two years, even if the Fed drops a lot more than that.

Dave:
I mean, I’ll just give you my take. I think that sort of consensus view seems pretty logical to me. Do you agree?

John:
A hundred percent. Yep.

Dave:
And what do you make of the short-term implications of these rate cuts on the housing market? Let’s just start with for the remainder last quarter of 2024 here, do you think it’s going to change anything?

John:
Well, I do think it’s going to make housing more affordable for people who’ve been renting and wanting to buy something. So I think you’re going to see more entry level buyers come into the market. It’s actually a big change for the rental industry because most people borrow at an adjustable rate mortgage in the rental industry, which really is bad finance. You shouldn’t be buying a long-term asset and financing it with short-term interest rates, but they do. So that’s why there’s been a lot of stress in multifamily market and the word has been from a lot of these guys just got to stay alive until 2025 and hope rates come back down so I don’t have to give my apartment keys back to the lender. The more the Fed drops rates, the fewer people are going to have to give the apartment back to the lender.

Dave:
Actually, for most of July and August when rates were starting to drop, I was kind of surprised to see purchase rate, mortgage purchase application data sort of decline. But in the last week or so it started to shoot back up. So I’m curious, do you think that this could unlock a little bit of transaction volume in the residential side of things?

John:
It’s definitely unlocking some volume and there’s a lot of people that have been sitting in their house going, God, we’ve got a low interest rate mortgage, we’re not going to move. But if you really hate your house or you really want to move, it’s less of a painful decision to go get a 6% mortgage rate somewhere than it was a seven. And we’ve seen people do that, but I think 76% of people have a mortgage below five. That number was 81% a year ago. So we’re gradually seeing more and more people saying, you know what? We’re just going to move anyway.

Dave:
Yeah. Eric, from a demographic standpoint, is there a backlog of demand of people waiting to jump into the housing market when prices become affordable to them?

Eric:
I think there’s a case to be made there. Yeah. So two data points I can point to here. One, the Fed runs a monthly survey, the New York Fed runs a monthly survey asking households, do you think you’ll move in the next 12 months? And for years it’s just been a pretty steady decline down. And at the end of last year was at the lowest point, I think in the survey’s history. Since January, that number is shot up from something like 13% up to 18%.

Dave:
So

Eric:
It is a percentage points. It’s hard to maybe think about that, but that’s one of the sharpest increases in that surveys history. To me, it tells me that households are sort of itching to move and waiting and they really want to move. They’ve been stuck or locked into their low mortgage rates or if their renters, there hasn’t been enough supply to actually go look for a new rental unit. And I think we’re not in the peak buying and selling season for homes right now. So even in though mortgage rates have fallen quite a bit, the people that have choices and can wait and they want to wait, I think we’ll start to see that movement more toward the spring.

Dave:
Alright, cool. Well that’s I think encouraging for all of our audience who is anxiously waiting for the housing market. To unlock a little bit curious both of your takes on what this all means for pricing, because price rates coming down, hopefully we’ll increase some transaction volume, but do you think we’re going to see a re-ignition of appreciation rates? Because at least on social media, everyone seems to be predicting that when rates come down, prices are going to shoot back up. But I think at least my opinion, that sort of ignores the whole supply side of the question. So I’m curious, John, what your thoughts are there?

John:
There’s definitely upside potential to price appreciation. So when somebody’s selling their house because it was locked in and then they go buy another one that’s kind of one seller, one buyer, that doesn’t really change the demand supply equation. What changes the demand supply equation is when somebody’s renting comes in and buys something that increases demand. And if you’re not increasing supply by an equal amount, which then usually has to come from a home builder and that’s a seller who’s not a buyer, I think you’re going to see supply from the home builders be very flat to up a little bit because there’ve been so little investment and land development, that’s the ultimate constraint for them. And so I do think there is some potential if a lot of first time buyers come into the market that we could see some strong home price appreciation.

Dave:
Alright, very eager to see how that plays out. But I think the logic and the economics definitely makes sense there.

John:
One thing I need to throw out, homes are way more expensive in relation to income than usual, even payments are.

Dave:
So

John:
You do have this dark cloud of crazy affordability hanging over all of this, but we’ve had that now for a couple years, so we kind of know what that’s like. And the other thing I’ll mention for you is guess what percentage of first time buyers are getting help from their family?

Dave:
Oh, I read about this. Is it like 30 40%? It’s

John:
40%.

Dave:
Oh, wow. Yeah, that’s a lot.

John:
Well, and if you think about it, if you look at older people over the age of 55, there’s about an 80% home ownership rate,

Dave:
Lot of equity too.

John:
So every single one of those 80% just made a couple hundred grand on their house. And these tend to be the helicopter parents, I’m guilty of that too, who tend to want their kids to be around and they’re saying, look, I’m going to use some of that equity. I’m going to help you with your down payment or even your mortgage payment just because I don’t want you moving across the country. And so we’re seeing quite a bit of that.

Dave:
Okay. Time for one last quick break, but stick around because I’m going to ask some selfish questions of John because I think he has some insights that could help me in my own investing when we return. And if you don’t have a helicopter parent helping you buy a house or even if you do, BiggerPockets has your back, head to biggerpockets.com for tools and resource to give you an investing edge. Hey investors, welcome back to the show. John, last set of questions here. Completely selfish. If you listen to the show, you know that I am typically a lazy investor. I don’t flip houses, but I am getting increasingly interested in it. I just find it kind of fun. And it might be interesting, you released a survey about what’s going on in the seat of home flipping. Can you give us a summary, John, of what’s happening with that side of the industry?

John:
I think partially due to BiggerPockets, we’ve seen a surgeon over the last 10 years.

Dave:
It’s our fault.

John:
I’m sure there’s a couple from Waco that’s involved too, and there’s other people that are involved. It’s kind of a quick buck and there’s a lot of people that have not seen a downturn before, and so they had a tailwind while they were doing this and they’ve made a lot of money and there are a lot of homes that are in need of a lot of repair. So I think it’s a good business. It does cause an affordability problem because it takes a home that’s 250 grand off the market from somebody who might afford it and puts a 450 grand home back.

Dave:
Yeah, that’s right.

John:
So we do a fix and flip survey, and so financing has become available to these groups. They’re actually securitizing those loans now, by the way, nine month long mortgages. They’ve figured out how to securitize them

Dave:
Like hard money loans.

John:
Absolutely. And they’re only nine months of maturity too. Yeah, tour Act Capital has been a leader in that

Dave:
Man. The financial system will find a way to bundle and sell anything.

John:
Yes, they will. So those guys make the loans and then they’re not even on the hook of something goes bad in the first place. So to answer your question, the flippers have not been getting a lot of tailwind price appreciation in the last 12 to 18 months. So their returns have come down, the costs of the remodel have gone up dramatically. It’s 40%. Construction costs are 40% since 2019. So that’s been a struggle. But our surveys are showing that everybody’s doing fine. Very few people are kind of losing money, but the crazy heyday of remodeling a home and getting a bunch of price appreciation while I was remodeling it and not having to pay a hell of a lot more for the remodel seemed to be over.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s interesting. I’ve heard more people even who aren’t investors who wouldn’t call themselves investors, I would say, considering a flip or buying a home that needs significant renovations and doing the work themselves just because of the affordability problem. And hopefully you can build some equity for yourself, but it also just might be an easier way for you to afford the type and style of home that you are dreaming of.

John:
So one question for you, and this is Census Bureau data, we’re seeing the numbers of single family rental homes in the country, decline. They spiked during the great financial crisis and then they’ve been down. So are you seeing a lot of people who bought homes finally saying, you know what insurance costs are going up. I am just going to sell the house and pay the capital gains. That seems to me that’s showing up in the data, but I don’t hang out with that world.

Dave:
I would love to see that data. I don’t know. I’m curious because this is just gut instinct. My instinct is that we have more people who are trying to be a landlord rental property owner deliberately where we have growing audience and BiggerPockets these people, although some of them flip primarily are looking for long-term rentals to move up their retirement date, offer some additional income, perhaps what we would call the quote accidental landlords are choosing just to sell. I think there was times where it was more appealing, where if you inherited a home or you moved, it was like, Hey, maybe I’ll hold on to this property and rented out. But with the way the finances work right now, it’s not always going to cashflow. And maybe people are just choosing to put those back on the market. But that’s a total gut instinct response to your question.

John:
Well, I just looked. We grew at about 15 and a half million rental homes at the peak. We’re down to about 14.2 million.

Dave:
Interesting. That’s a big drop.

John:
But when the great financial crisis hired, we were more like 12. So we went from 12 to 15 and a half. Now we’re back to 14 too. Interesting.

Dave:
Well, it’s hard to say what’s better, right? Because as long as they’re occupied, that’s the good thing. But whether hopefully it’s first time home buyers or people who need those homes, buying them instead of renting them. But it does make you curious about rent prices

John:
And it’s also supply hitting the market. So going back to your home price appreciation, boy, if 2 million investors decided to sell their rental homes, that would create a soft home pricing situation.

Dave:
Oh yeah. So I don’t know if you know this, John, but I am American. I’m in the States right now, but I live full-time in Amsterdam. And they sort of famously about two years ago, enacted a rent control law where they were capping rents. And it has helped soften the housing market because all of the rental property owners are selling their properties. But rents are skyrocketing because the supply of rents have just gone down and it’s not actually helping. It’s helping some people afford homes, but it’s not actually helping the people. The law was designed to help because rents have just absolutely gone through the roof. So I wonder if something like that is also going to be happening here.

John:
Nobody’s going to build any more apartments if that’s the law. And that’ll cause demand to go, demand supply to get out of balance.

Dave:
Alright, well, thank you both so much for being here, Eric and John, is there anything else, any other trends you think our audience should know about before we get out of here?

John:
Those are the big ones, but we’re surveying flippers. We’re surveying landlords. If any of your folks want to be involved in that, please just email me. It’s just [email protected]. We’ll make sure you get on the list and then you’ll see the results too.

Dave:
Well, thanks again. We’ll absolutely put a link to John’s contact information and all the research they do over there at John Burns research and consulting. And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On the Market. We’ll see you soon for another episode In just a few days on the Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • The newest immigration and housing data pointing to some surprising conclusions for landlords
  • Why immigrants crossing the southern border are NOT just settling in border towns
  • How immigrants may have “bailed out” multifamily investors struggling to fill units
  • New multifamily supply and why builders are becoming more bullish in today’s market
  • Whether or not lower mortgage rates will lead to higher home prices 
  • The state of house flipping in 2024 and whether flippers are still making money
  • And So Much More!

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8 Rentals in 3 Years While Working a Full-Time Job AND Remote Managing

Three years ago, Luke Otto knew next to nothing about rental properties. His interest was instantly piqued when he got into a conversation about real estate investing with an old friend. He went home and immediately started reading The Book on Rental Property Investing, and from there, he knew what his next move was. Shortly after, he was at the closing table, feeling the “fear” of putting a five-figure down payment on a rental property. Did it work out for Luke? It did, indeed!

Fast forward to today, Luke has an eight-unit rental property portfolio and has become the investing “expert” in his group. He’s done what most rookies wouldn’t even think of, taking on renovations of old, outdated homes and turning them into performing rental properties for his portfolio. He’s done seller financing, got five percent interest rates (yes, even in TODAY’s market), and did most of it while self-managing his portfolio remotely and working a full-time nine-to-five.

Luke has taken the right risks, leveled up his skills to scale the right way, and made massive progress in a short amount of time. Today, he shares how he pushed through fear to build wealth, when to hire a property manager, and how having the right agent can help you explode your real estate portfolio.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Tony:
Alright guys. Our guest today started investing in real estate just three years ago, and he has already snowballed his portfolio to eight properties. Now, what sets him apart in a competitive market is his unique niche, and that’s preserving and revitalizing historic building. Now Lucas found a way to stand out by blending his passion with strategy and it creates value in a way that few other investors do. And look, I’m super excited to dive into his journey today and learn more about his approach to balancing profitability with preservation. So guys, welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast. My name is Tony J Robinson and I’m sadly not joined by my co-host Ashley Care because she’s out traveling today. But we’ll be back together soon in a few weeks, so don’t worry. But this SD podcast where every week, three times a week, we bring you the inspiration, the motivation, and the stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. Luke, thank you so much for the show. We’re excited to be having you on today, brother.

Luke:
Thanks, Tony. Been a fan of BiggerPockets for many years and look forward to the conversation today.

Tony:
Same here, man. And look, we’re going to discuss how to build and maintain your portfolio remotely, why writing letters to sellers still works today and how to make you stand out. And lastly, we’re going to talk about why networking is so crucial and how you can use it to land a 5% interest rate. So look, super excited to dive in, man. I guess where I want to start, maybe just start by giving us a snapshot because you’ve scaled your portfolio pretty quickly, but just give us a snapshot of your life, where you’re based and your career when you started investing in real estate.

Luke:
Yeah, absolutely. So I live in Chicago, Chicago, proper full-time. I’m in the Lincoln Park neighborhood right now. I live right across the street from Lincoln Park Zoo for those who know the Chicago land area. I’ve been in Illinois my whole life, born and raised. I am originally from a town called Bloomington Normal. Technically they’re twin cities and I’m from a town called Normal Illinois. It’s about two and a half hours south of Chicago and that’s where all my properties are today. They’re in that Bloomington normal market. I’ve been in Chicago for about eight years now. Got into real estate right around three years ago and for the past roughly six years since I graduated from business school, I’ve been working in an industry completely unrelated to real estate and that is management consulting. I love what I do have no necessary intent to leave, but I’ve developed this pretty strong passion for real estate over the years.

Tony:
Let’s dig into that just a little bit. Luke, what sparked that interest in real estate? There are a lot of other ways that you could spend your free time other than tenants and toilets. What was it about real estate that piqued your interest?

Luke:
Yeah, everybody has a really unique, at least I think, unique origin story and how they get into real estate. And I think mine is as well. For me, it started in 2021, a very vivid memory that I have. It was actually the 4th of July. I was up in Wisconsin with a lot of my friends. I played football in college and a lot of my friends now are my former teammates. And so we were all there together spending the 4th of July with one another. And one of my former teammates has been fortunate enough to continue playing in the NFL. So he’s going into his now sixth season right now with the Jacksonville Jaguars. And as we all know, the NFL pays pretty well. And so he was talking a few years ago about how he was using some of the excess funds that he had from his career in the NFL to invest in real estate.

Luke:
And also serendipitously just so happens that he’s from a small town close to where I’m from in central Illinois as well. So very similar markets. And I was just listening to him talk really passionately about the type of fun, joy and also financial benefit that he was getting from real estate. And I didn’t know a thing about it. And so truly I just wanted to read a book about real estate investing so I could connect with him in the future and we could talk about real estate and I could just understand what he meant by a lot of what he was referencing. So I ended up in August and September reading of course the book on Rental Property Investing by Brandon Turner. And after reading that book, not only did I now understand real estate, but I thought I can do this and I think I want to. So that was how I started, ended up buying my first property a few months later.

Tony:
And first kudos to you on getting that first property a few months later. I think a lot of people, they have that light bulb moment where they say, I think I want to invest in real estate, but then it takes them 12 months, 18 months, two years, five years before they actually end up pulling the trigger. And I want to get into that, but I guess one final follow-up question at the outset, what was your exit plan with real estate?

Luke:
I didn’t enter into real estate to build a path for me necessarily to leave my nine to five. For many people out there who are listening, they may have a nine to five. I certainly do. I’ve been fortunate that I actually love what I do. The people that I work with been there for six years. I have no intent to leave anytime soon. So I wasn’t in much of a hurry to build a very strong and robust passive income stream to pursue that full time. It was something that really just interested me and also a bit of how I’m wired. I’m somebody who likes to continually learn, grow, challenge myself. If I don’t feel a little bit scared, then I feel a little bit complacent. And this for me felt like I was jumping off of a high dive and I felt pretty scared and it was something that I think motivated me to decide that it’s something I should pursue and I’ve continued to do that. I still feel like I’m on an even higher diving board today.

Tony:
Luke, you said something that I think is incredibly profound and I want to make sure we don’t pass over that. But if I heard you correctly, you said as you thought about getting into real estate, you felt a little bit of fear, but it was that fear that made you realize that you were doing the right thing. Is that what I heard?

Luke:
That’s right. And I remember a particular moment where felt the most fear, where I absolutely doubted myself, questioned myself, should I continue with this? I can still pull out if I need to. And that was when I was walking in for what felt to me like this massive amount of money in my pocket. I had a cashier’s check when I was going to the closing table for this first property that I purchased and it was only a down payment of around 10 or $12,000, but that was the most money that I ever held in my hand at one time in my life. And it felt like I was cutting the parachute or whatever kind of safety harness there was. And when I had the keys for the first time, my emotions flipped and I felt that it’s time to get ready and start moving.

Tony:
Now Luke, you were obviously able to push through that kind of fear pretty quickly because you said it was only a few months after that conversation on 4th of July that you actually got your first deal. So maybe walk us through that. What was your strategy for that first investment?

Luke:
Yeah, so my initial strategy for my first investment was about as traditional as it gets. I was specifically looking for a single family home, something that had maybe been on the market for a little while and was being overlooked by other buyers, whether it’s a family moving in, first time home buyer potentially, or investors. So I was exclusively looking for places that were hanging out there for one reason or another on the MLS and again, only single family homes in the Bloomington normal market. My plan was knowing that that there were probably going to be naturally some renovations that needed to happen. I was not looking for something significant. I was looking for places that only needed light to maybe moderate renovations. My plan was to not do the work myself, but hire a contracting team to do that work, take however many months it needed and then turn it around and rent it for a long-term rental. So that was my plan going in and that’s how it ended up panning out overall.

Tony:
So stay tuned after a break from more from Luke. Now look, if you’re hoping to invest out of state, you will need a team to help you manage your properties. So head over to biggerpockets.com/property manager to learn more. Alright guys, welcome back to the show. We’re joined again by Luke Otto. So can you quickly break that deal down for me? Luke, you had a pretty tight buy box and I guess again, just a few months later you actually found it. Just break it down. How did you find that deal so quickly and just go over the numbers for us as well.

Luke:
So this is a fascinating property. I still have it. I love this property. A lot of people feel an emotional pull to their first property. I absolutely do. It was owned by an investor, a single family home, two bed, one bath, and it was vacant when I purchased it. The tenants had moved out a few months beforehand and this property had been on the market for about two, two and a half months. Despite it being a two bed, one bath property, it is six and 76 square feet. It is tiny, it is a tiny property, has a living area, a full kitchen and a bathroom all on the first floor. Very small dollhouse. And so I ended up offering on that. It was listed for $70,000. It had not come down in price. I had not seen based on any other previous offers that were out there, any sort of deal activity. So it was just sitting. I ended up making an offer right around I believe $55,000. I tended to be and still am more aggressive in earnest money to show that with any offer that I make, I’m serious about it. So I tend to offer a pretty substantial earnest money amounts. And it was a pretty traditional offer financed with the conventional loan. And when I made that offer, the counter that I received was instead of $70,000, $63,000 and I ended up accepting that. So it was $63,000 for this two bed, one bath hole.

Tony:
I want to ask one question, Luke, because you offered significantly lower than what the asking price was. What gave you the confidence to do that? I guess let me preface this question. A lot of times when we’re talking to Ricky Investors, they’ll say, man, it’s listed at 70,000, but that’s more than what I can pick it up for, so I’m not going to submit my offer. What gave you the confidence to say, Hey, I’m going to submit my offer at 50 or whatever it was.

Luke:
So I never want to offend anybody. Every offer that I’ve ever made has never been above the asking price. It’s always been below. And of course there’s a line that you tow with being realistic and also not being offensive to the individual who is selling this property. And something that I’ve actually done with every property that I have purchased, every property that I’ve bought, I have asked the agents if I can meet the seller directly for the property and I’m happy to do that in the presence of the agents, I’m happy to do that in any location. And I had done that with this property as well. So I met the owners and I first just wanted to learn about their story, their history with the property, how long have they owned it, how has it transformed or not transformed in their tenure that they’ve had the property, what do they do for a living?

Luke:
Why are they selling it now, what are they looking to accomplish? Turns out this was owned by an older couple, both of whom were teachers at a local school in the area and they had built up a portfolio of about 40 properties over many years of teaching and they were offloading their properties so they could go retire and move to Arizona. And I had told them, I’m at the opposite end of my career. I’m looking to get in. I think this is frankly the perfect type of property. It’s exactly what I’m looking for. It has, I think what could make it a successful property. It needs some work. I want to that I will make an offer and I’m serious about this, acknowledging the work that’s needed. It will be below the asking price. And that was how I had the confidence to make that offer.

Tony:
I always take the emotion out of any offer that I submit and I’ll run my analysis and whatever my maximum allowable purchase price is and the little calculator that I use, I’ll copy that number and I’ll drop it into the email where I submit my offer. So if they’re asking 500, but my maximum allowable offer is $397,826, that’s what I’m going to put in the email. So for me, I always remove the emotion and I say, Hey, here’s the number that I needed. If it doesn’t work for you, no harm, no foul. But if it does work, let’s have a conversation. I’ll give you a quick example, Luke. There was a cabin that we were looking at purchasing and I’ve been watching it for a while and it was initially listed for over a million bucks, I think it was 1.2 million. And I was like, that’s a little steep for me.

Tony:
We offered 700, they didn’t even counter, they’re like kick rocks, we’ll go find someone else. The property continued to sit, they dropped it from 1.2 down to I think just over a million, offered 700 again, didn’t get a response. They dropped it from a million to nine 50, offered 700 again, and they countered at eight 50. That was the third offer that I had submitted all at the same number. And now they finally countered. I still said no because it’s getting my max is 700, but it’s been sitting at, they actually dropped the price at eight 50, it’s been sitting at eight 50. So guess what I’m going to do again in a couple of weeks, resubmit that same offer at 700 and hopefully now they’ll come down to maybe seven 50. So always submit based on what number makes the most sense for you.

Tony:
Okay, so you got this first deal, again, moved pretty quickly, but now you’ve scaled Luke from zero to eight in three years. And I think when people hear that kind of scale, they can maybe understand the first acquisition, the second acquisition, like, okay, cool, maybe you’ve got 10%, 15, 20% down on each one of these and you’re kind of making it work. But the idea of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, I think that part starts to get a little bit more less clear for folks. So at a high level, how did you grow your capital? What capital did you leverage to keep scaling in such a short period of time?

Luke:
Great question. So I ended up buying my next property about six months later, so not too long after this first property, it had just rented out. And then I closed on again, a single family home, very similar in style. This time it was a three bed, one bath, a little bit larger, and it was the same playbook, I’ll say I was looking for the same type of property, maybe a little bit more in terms of the renovations that were needed. But I financed that with my own cash, I sold stock. That’s where this is coming from, either in a brokerage account or I have done this number of times. Now I have gone into, and I don’t necessarily advise or not advise against this, but what I’ve done is I have sold some of my funds in retirement and invested that in real estate and I did that to buy my next property.

Luke:
And then I had no intent to continue purchasing properties at that time. I wanted to wait, stabilize both of these, grow as a property manager and get that under my belt and then continue from there. But as luck would have it, I was talking about real estate just a few months later with again, a very similar group of friends. And somebody else said to me true story. They said, Luke, hypothetically speaking, if somebody came to you with half a million dollars of cash to invest in real estate, how would you invest it? And I said, well, his name’s not John, but I’ll call him John. I said, John, I have a feeling this is not a hypothetical and you actually have money to invest in real estate. And he said yes, and it was a crazy story there, but we ended up partnering together. So I partnered with a friend of mine who became the passive investor to put money down for the down payments for properties and to finance the renovations. And I did everything else and we split all the returns that come in for those properties that we ended up purchasing, again, single family homes there. And then from there, I’ll just say in terms of other methods that I’ve used since then to buy the other properties that I’ve had, it’s gotten progressively more creative over time. I’ve used HELOCs now I’ve also used stellar financing twice to buy three properties that are all multifamily.

Tony:
And I think there’s a lot to unpack here, Luke, but a couple of things I want to point out. So the creative finance piece, I think I want to touch on that. I think it’s an interesting way to scale up. The partnership piece is important as well. But did you after that second property, consider yourself an expert real estate investor?

Luke:
I still wrestle with that question. Am I an expert real estate investor? I would say I know my way around. I know my way around now, but after that second property, I still felt like I had a lot to learn.

Tony:
Okay, and I’m glad you said that. That leads perfectly into the point that I was trying to make here, Luke, is that in your mind as the Luke that had just completed his second real estate transaction, you still felt that you had a lot to learn, but in the mind of your friend John, you were the resident expert in his life, so much so that he said, I’ve got half a million bucks and let’s go invest this together and look Luke, I’m going to trust you to figure out what to do with this. Now it’s a large amount of trust, but here’s the thing, and this is for all of the rookies that are listening, people invest with people that they know that they like and that they trust. And even if maybe Luke hadn’t done a thousand real estate transactions, John knew Luke, John liked Luke and John trusted Luke, and that’s what gave John the confidence to say, Hey, let’s go in on this together.

Tony:
So for all of the rookies that are listening, even if you’ve only done one deal, and believe me when I say this, even if you’ve only done one deal, the knowledge gap between the person who’s at zero and the person that’s at one is much bigger than the person who’s at one deal and the person who’s at two, right? It’s a much smaller knowledge gap. So in John’s mind at zero and you at two, that’s a massive, massive gap of knowledge and you were able to use that in a way that was mutually beneficial. I think that’s super important for Ricky to understand.

Luke:
I agree. And that was another time in my journey where I felt, again, an immense sense of fear because I was taking on how I perceived it, the responsibility of somebody else’s money, someone else’s investment. Now I was going to treat it with the same level of care that I would for any of my own. But again, it was another step where along that journey it was uncomfortable, but I felt it was the right thing to continue forward.

Tony:
Now the first property, at least the first couple, sounds like you found those on the MLS. Have you gone any other ways to find those deals or have all of those been directly on market?

Luke:
The most recent properties, those most recent four properties have come to me through my now current real estate agent who I found on the BiggerPockets network. He’s the only agent in the Bloomington normal area who was affiliated with BiggerPockets. And that is why I reached out to him to network with him about a year and a half, two years ago. And he has been tremendous. He’s also now my property manager and he’s a fellow investor. He’s doing a house hack of his own and he’s been in the market for many years and knows it extremely well. He has been by far the most significant cornerstone of the team that I’ve built over the past few years. And so everything did start on the MLS, but then most recently the properties have been brought to me through my agent just at different appropriate times where he says, Luke, I think this fits what you’re looking for right now.

Tony:
So he’s kind of got these off market pocket listings that he feels suits your buy box and he’s coming to you and saying, yeah, these aren’t on the MLS yet, but I think you should take a look at these before they get there.

Luke:
Exactly.

Tony:
Okay. Now let me ask Luke, these off market deals, it sounds like most of them kind of needed some work. How big of a rehab project are you taking on? Are these now all just kind of the same lipstick, quick in and out type deals, or have you maybe matured and graduated to bigger rehab projects?

Luke:
Yes, the latter. I have matured and graduated to bigger rehab projects, gotten a bit more confident in knowing what to do and how to do it. I now have a contracting team that is wonderful and I’ll tell you that took some time to build. I’ve been through a number of teams and now I have one that I trust, but I ended up deciding to pursue the Burr strategy for the remaining properties that I’ve purchased. And coincidentally, they’ve all been these old hundred to 120 year old Victorian style or Queen Anne style properties that have been chopped up over time to become a duplex or a triplex. And so that’s what I’ve purchased most recently. One of them, just to give you a sense of the magnitude of what has gone into these things, one of them I purchased recently for $50,000. It’s a four unit building.

Luke:
Now why would a four unit building sell for $50,000? A number of reasons, but the primary reason was last year it had a fire, unfortunately a pretty catastrophic fire on the front porch and it destroyed one of the units of the property. Thankfully, most of it is still preserved and fine and it’s beautiful on the inside, original hardwood floors, pocket doors as well. I love that kind of character, but it was uninhabitable and it had been for many months. And so that property, despite it being purchased for $50,000, the renovation there is very significant. It’s well over $400,000 to renovate this property,

Tony:
120 years old. That’s insanity. I’ve never purchased anything that old before. Do you feel that that maybe gives you a leg up in that market? I dunno, I guess because I would think an old Victorian home, there’s maybe an appeal to that that you don’t get with a new construction home or something that was built more recently. I guess what impact do you feel that maybe focusing in on that niche specifically has as you’re going to either refinance, obviously on the appraisal, the backend appraisal, but also when you’re looking to get tenants into the homes?

Luke:
Yeah, absolutely. I think people appreciate as a renter, even if it’s a short-term rental or midterm or long-term, there’s generally an appreciation for character of older homes if they are restored properly and truly and fully. And so when I went down this path and I was evaluating whether I do purchase some of these really old homes that are going to have renovations, there are going to be surprises that are going to come up and oh, by the way, I’m going to be investing a lot of money, tens of thousands of dollars in updating things like mechanicals that renters don’t necessarily care about. If you’re at a property for a few months, you don’t really care if it’s brand new electrical or old knob and tube unless there’s an issue. But I knew that for these properties to be truly well preserved in terms of their character but also restored so that they’re breathe a new sense of life them, I would have to update things like the mechanicals.

Luke:
And that’s not very appetizing for many investors who might not be looking to take on renovations that cost that much or take that much time. So to answer part of your question, I do believe it gives me a leg up in that I’m competing with less people. There are just less people who want to go into something as messy as that. And then on the back end, I think it gives me a leg up because when these properties are finished and you can appreciate these original hardwood floors and you can appreciate the higher ceilings and the custom crown molding, then it’s an added level of quality that I think stands out against the other properties on the market for rent in the area.

Tony:
Alright, Ricky, we have our final ad break, but while we’re away, we’d love to hear from you. Alright. Now, do you invest in real estate remotely just like Luke does? You can answer in the Spotify app or the YouTube app during the break. We’d love to hear from you. Alright guys, let’s jump back in. I want to circle back, you briefly mentioned this about getting creative with the ways that you funded some of these deals as well. And you mentioned getting a heloc, you also mentioned seller financing, and I think both of those are great tools today that Ricky should consider leveraging the HELOC because a lot of folks who bought pre pandemic, they’ve probably seen properties appreciate a lot over the last four or five, six years. And then the seller financing piece works well because if there are folks who, especially in the elevated interest rate environment that we’re in right now, if you have a homeowner who has a property that’s either fully paid off or mostly paid off and can give you the loan instead, well maybe now you can negotiate a slightly lower interest rate. So I want to focus in on the seller financing piece. I think the biggest questions that a rookie has is how do you actually go about negotiating that with the landlord? Are you just coming out and saying like, Hey, will you sell our finances for him? Are they bringing it up themselves? But how do you open up the door to have that conversation?

Luke:
Yeah, so I always ask whoever is representing me in the transaction, if they can run this by the representation of the seller, whoever that agent is, can you see and check with them? Is this worth even pursuing with seller financing? Are they open to it? Do they have motivations that wouldn’t work for seller financing in this case? Just let me know. And if there is flexibility to at least being interested in offer being seller financed, then I will make an offer that is an owner or seller finance deal. I will say though, despite the fact that I do have now two different deals that I’ve closed with seller financing, I have probably lost at least a dozen. So there have been plenty of offers that I have made with all kinds of different terms I’ve proposed not only a traditional structure also wraps, I’ve gotten very familiar with wraparound mortgages. It’s a very niche style of seller financing. I have not closed any of those, but I began to know my way around after frankly many failures before finally two of them ended up closing recently.

Tony:
And I think that’s the important thing to call out here too, Luke, is that just like how you analyzed hundreds of deals before you found that first one, it’s very much the same thing when you start trying to negotiate some of these more creative finance strategies as well because yeah, a lot of people, they’re going to tell you like, Hey, I have no interest in that. Right? But all you need is that one person with the right situation where it is appealing to them. We closed on our first seller finance deal earlier this year and it’s actually a commercial property, and we were able to negotiate, it was 30 year amortization on the actual note, but it was a 10 year term. So we’ve got a full decade before that balloon payment is due. The first three years were interest only, so we had a lower payment during those first three years and the interest rate was 7%, which we felt was pretty good given where rates were when we closed in that deal, especially for commercial property.

Tony:
And it was a win-win for all parties involved. They got consistent cashflow for the next decade without doing any work whatsoever on this property. And we got a very low cost of acquisition to come in and take this deal down. So I think asking that question is super important and much like you, we gave them two options. We said, Hey, if we have to go out and get some kind of third party financing, here’s the offer, but if you guys do it in-house, here’s the offer. And that in-house offer, the seller financing offer is a little bit more enticing.

Luke:
Absolutely. And along those lines, most recently when I’ve had some of those conversations to test the waters about seller financing with the sellers, again, I try to meet everybody who I end up offering for their properties. I’ve asked to see if they’re open to it. They’ve indicated that that has been the case. But that said, similar to you, a commercial property came through recently and I proposed seller financing. I thought it would be something very mutually beneficial in this case they declined and that’s completely fine in that case.

Tony:
And you said you got a 5% interest rate?

Luke:
Yes. So this particular transaction where there was a 5% interest rate is a pretty unique situation. I’d be happy to tell you about some of the context there and how that came together.

Tony:
I just think it’s really interesting as of this recording ratio’s starting to drop, but when you close in that deal, I mean, I don’t know what were rates at maybe 7%, somewhere in that ballpark.

Luke:
Absolutely. Right around seven and a

Tony:
Half. Yeah. So you got two and a half point discount on your interest rate. Why do you think the seller was so open and willing to give you a significantly lower rate than what the market rate was going for?

Luke:
And this is just such a unique story with these sellers. It ended up being a young couple, late twenties, maybe right around 30 years old, and they had purchased what was for them, their dream home. They had purchased, again, one of these 120 year old Queen Anne style homes. And this particular home they purchased had been developed many, many years ago by a prominent architect and has a lot of unique custom features on the interior. Not only is there beautiful crown molding, but there are even, it’s not just stick on plaster or wood piece, but there’s hand carved cherubs that are in the ceilings of some of the rooms in this house. Baby angels carved into the ceilings. So for some it works, for some it doesn’t. But this is a very ornate home. And this couple ended up with a property immediately next door, completely unrelated.

Luke:
It’s a three unit building that was built at a different time, different architect. It’s one of these traditional triplexes that they ended up also purchasing. So they found themselves with these two properties. And unfortunately last winter, it was over the course of Christmas when it was particularly cold in central Illinois, they were both visiting family and away from their property. And when they returned a few days later, they found that they had a flood that had started due to a burst pipe on their top floor, their third floor, and it completely destroyed everything beneath it, their kitchen, several bedrooms, and it was a several hundred thousand dollars fix to renovate everything. It just so happened that this couple, when they purchased the property, they bought replacement coverage for this property over double of what the property was purchased for. So their insurance payout was several hundred thousand dollars.

Luke:
It was about a half million dollars that they had to go do something else with. So they found themselves with their primary residence and a three unit building next door that they didn’t really want anymore. They didn’t want to go through the time and the money it would take to renovate that home again. So they moved out and bought a different property and they’re renovating that to live there, and they have a lot of money left over more than they have that they know what to do with, which is very rare. So for them, it didn’t really matter the purchase price that they got, it didn’t matter to get a lot of cashflow immediately. They were very flexible. And as a result of that flexibility, I was able to propose some different options for seller financing and they chose what was most appealing to them.

Tony:
And I think it all comes back, Luke, to understanding the motivations of the person on the other side. And the better you can speak to those motivations when you offer seller finance and the better your chance of actually making it happen right. Now. Look, you’ve obviously scaled up in a tremendous pace over the last couple of years here, but you’ve also been doing this, I’m assuming, like you mentioned, working a full-time job. So how do you balance the growing real estate portfolio with the demands of a full-time W2 job as well?

Luke:
Yeah. Now, there was a time where it was very, very stressful, especially before I hired a property manager. The maximum amount of properties that I managed on my own remotely from Chicago was four active units. They were all long-term rentals. And I had a duplex as well that was being renovated at the time. And I knew that I was at my tipping point, and I needed to find a property manager to manage all of these units once these renovations are complete with this duplex. But I’ll say during the time that I did manage the properties on my own, it is not a romantic love story with real estate. There were plenty of times that not only I traveled to and from this market on the weekend, there were times that I would travel to and from this market at night. And some of that was exacerbated by, unfortunately, a bad tenant that I had in one of my properties and never had to, thankfully never had to go through the formal eviction process, but had several late payments.

Luke:
And when it comes to some of the rules in Illinois about delivering notices for evictions, you have to do that in person with a physical piece of paper. That was a rude awakening for me. And so there were four consecutive months where I would drive down on, let’s say a Tuesday evening at 5:00 PM or 6:00 PM two and a half hours down south, and then two and a half hours back just to put a piece of paper in the hands of those who were living in this property and then go to bed around midnight and go back to work the next day. So it was a lot until I hired my property manager.

Tony:
And Luke, I asked that question because I think people want the easy path, but the truth is sometimes it’s just not easy and it requires a certain level of hard work if you really want to be able to build up this real estate portfolio alongside the demands of your existing life, work, family, community, faith, whatever it may be for you. We all have different things going on, but you got to find a way to sacrifice a little bit to really make some progress here. Luke, you’ve shared so much here, man, and there’s a lot of, I think, good nuggets from this conversation that I hope our rookies can take away. But I guess my last question, what would your advice be to rookies who are thinking about jumping into real estate investing today?

Luke:
Yeah, absolutely. There’s certainly the initial advice that I would have where I can say, listen, I can absolutely empathize if you feel a level of fear or trepidation to get into it. If you feel that something that I strongly recommend that you do is that you talk to others who have taken these steps in the past, how did they feel? How they overcome that feeling? Something else that I would say that I’ve really adopted as part of my core philosophy or mindset with real estate recently is I really approach real estate as something that is emotional and not necessarily transactional. I try to make it relational because everything that you do in real estate is with people. Yes, you are transacting for these properties, buying, selling, leasing, negotiating, but without other people that you can rely on that you trust. It’s impossible to achieve what it probably is that you want to achieve. And so I would strongly recommend to approach real estate in a way that is based on relationships and build those relationships with folks who have taken these steps, have the aptitude experience and some know-how that they can share with you and be a support system for you as you take your steps forward.

Tony:
Luke, I can’t think of a better way to wrap today’s episode. Again, congratulations to you on all of your success scale into that many properties in a relatively short period of time. Guys, if you want to connect with Luke, we’ll put all of his contact information in these show notes for today’s episode. And guys, if you are enjoying the Rookie Podcast, one very simple ask, share it with a friend who you think might enjoy it as well. And if you haven’t yet subscribed on whatever podcast platform or YouTube channel is you’re listening to make sure to do that as well. But that is it for today, guys. Again, my name is Tony j Robinson, and we will see you on the next episode of Real Estate Rookie.

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • The “fear” of investing in your first rental property (and why it’s OKAY to be scared)
  • Real estate partnerships and how to invest even when you’re low on cash
  • Why you DO NOT need to quit your job to build a sizable real estate portfolio
  • The gold of old and why outdated homes may make great renovation projects
  • HELOCs, seller financing, and other creative ways to buy more real estate
  • How to get deals sent straight to you by having an investor-friendly agent
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

3 Things That Will Kill Your Rental Property Cash Flow (Rookie Reply)

Floods, evictions, and bad property managers on ONE rental property?! These are the kinds of things that spook rookies out of real estate investing altogether. Fortunately, many of these issues are avoidable, and today, we’ll equip you with some property-saving advice that could help you prevent a major blunder!

Welcome back to another Rookie Reply! While scouring the BiggerPockets Forums this week, we stumbled on a full-blown horror story that involves several problems with the same property. Tony and guest co-host Noah Bacon have encountered similar issues throughout their investing journeys, and in this episode, they’re going to break them down and show you how to handle them. You’ll learn why you should think twice before passing up on a sewer scope, how to adjust your tenant screening process and avoid evictions, and how to effectively manage your property managers!

Looking to invest? Need answers? Ask your question on the BiggerPockets Forums!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Tony:
Alright guys, let’s get your questions answered. Welcome to the Real Estate Rookie podcast where every week, three times a week, we bring you the inspiration, motivation, and stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. Now, today’s rookie reply is going to be just a little bit different for a few reasons. Instead of answering your questions, we’re actually going to be featuring one forum users of the BiggerPockets form. We’re going to take one story bit of a horror story and use it as a jumping off point about what to do and what to look out for so you never end up in that person’s shoes. Now the second reason today is that Ashley, my co-host is Ashley Traveling. So I’ll be joined by Noah Bacon and you might recognize him from being on the Ricky Podcast before and from his YouTube series How I Got started, which aired on the BiggerPockets Real Estate Rookie YouTube channel. So Noah, thanks for joining us today, brother.

Noah:
Thank you so much for having me today, Tony. It’s a real, real honor to be here with you.

Tony:
Yeah, dude. Excited to jump in with you, man. So today we’re going to discuss the importance of sewer scopes during your inspections, why you need to stick to your strict application requirements and how to move on from your bad property manager. So I guess first let me maybe share a brief overview of this story that we found inside the form. So this form story was posted by someone named Rantz and here’s what Rantz wrote. It says in February of 2022, we purchased a newly renovated three unit building in the South Austin neighborhood of Chicago. The price was $500,000 and we used a debt service coverage ratio or DSCR loan for the purchase. We quickly found tenants and we were off to a great start. So it seems like everything’s going well so far within a week our ground tenant let us know that the sewage was backing into his unit.
Since this was a safety hazard, he had to move out and decided to find another place to live in. We refunded his rent and his deposit. So things are getting off to a rocky start here, right first weekend they lose their tenant. Flushable wipes and tree roots that had spread into our yard were seeming to be the root of the issue here. Luckily, we were able to fix the problem, but in total this all costs us about $15,000 after cleanup and remediation. The unit then flooded again after the nearby river flooded and cost us another $15,000 in cleanup. So not the best way to jump into your first investment is to lose another $30,000 in repairs and maintenance. Now I know you’ve got a similar story where you were looking at buying a property and identified some issues with the sewer. I guess how could Ransom maybe have avoided this issue altogether?

Noah:
Yeah, this is definitely a tough one and Ran is going to have some thick skin, some calluses early on in his investing career, that’s for sure. But yeah, like you said, Tony, I had a pretty similar story to this when I was actually under contract for a property. It was out in Colorado in the older part of Colorado Springs and there was a really, really shady sewer scope inspection that I had. And I think that part of the reason that ran is potentially in this situation is a lot of first time home buyers, a lot of first time investors, they waived that sewer scope inspection. And I found on mine very quickly that there was going to be a lot of damage down the road if I decided to close on this property. What I found was there was a sewage line that went 180 feet to the city tap and doing that sewer scope, there were offsets, there were roots, there was a lot of problems when you went through it and ultimately sent it over to the seller and there was going to be roughly about $30,000 worth of repairs, pretty similar numbers to what Ran was seeing here for cleanups down the road and seller basically told me to screw off.
I walked away and the contract was ripped up and I’m very, very thankful that we decided to walk away from this property because I certainly would’ve not been able to burden a $30,000 bill just right off the bat on my first property. So yeah, it was definitely a tough one, but I highly recommend sewer scopes.

Tony:
Yeah. Noah, let me ask, so how did you know to do a sewer scope? Is it just something that your realtor recommended or who pointed you in the direction to say this is something we need to check out?

Noah:
Yeah, so great question Tony. It was definitely my realtor. So I had an investor friendly realtor, this was before BiggerPockets had agent finders. So I actually went on the forums typed in, Hey, I’m Noah looking for my first property moving across the country and met with an investor agent. So he had a really great home inspector who obviously had the home inspection package and then offered a sewer scope edition onto it with a different company that he partnered with. So had I not had him on my corner, I definitely would’ve avoided that and been in a really, really big mistake my first time out.

Tony:
No, I know something that a lot of folks they get caught up on is the additional cost that comes along with doing some of these inspections because those are sunk costs, right? Once you spend the money on an inspection, whether you close or whether you don’t, that money is spent. So just so people understand, what did your sewer scope cost you? Ballpark?

Noah:
Yeah, great question. So I’ll start with first off, the home inspection package was about $500 without sewer scope. So I think that’s why you say Tony, a lot of people already have that fear of this is going to be a lot of money out of pocket and it’s Notre refundable if you walk away, the sewer scope was an additional 180 onto it. I actually looked back right before our recording here, so all in around $700 to potentially walk away from a $30,000 mistake. It definitely left me with an empty feeling not having the property. Of course I’m out close to $800 here, but it’s much better than being down the road and potentially going into foreclosure just immediately off the bat. So I’ll take that 180 to $200 spend to have a safety net and sleep at night to have my properties

Tony:
100% man. And I think about it like car insurance, we never get to December 31st and we look at the year, we’re like, I didn’t have any accidents this year. What a waste that I had car insurance. It’s like that’s the money you invest for that peace of mind. And I think the inspections to due diligence, it serves that same purpose of giving you that peace of mind. We had a similar, not quite as bad as this, but we had kind of a similar issue with one of the properties that we bought that was on a septic system and it was our first time buying on septic and we did not do a septic inspection and shortly after purchasing it, we get a call and this is a short-term rental, which is potentially even worse. You’ve got so many people come in and out, but we had a guest who called us and they were like, Hey, there’s some brown water coming up from the shower, we don’t know what’s going on.
And lo and behold, we had some issues with the septic and that was a lesson for us. At any time we buy a property with the septic again a few hundred bucks to get the septic inspection done and that really gives you the peace of mind to say, hey, we can move forward with this purchase. So that was my introduction though, really into the world of sewage and septic inspections and luckily it didn’t cost us all that much, we just had to pump the septic tank and I don’t know, it’s like a thousand bucks maybe something like that to get a rectified, but obviously $30,000 is a much, much bigger issue. So big lesson learned for ran here. No, and luckily I think you and I both avoided maybe the worst of those potential issues, but Ran is hopefully like a tail of caution for folks to spend the extra $200 to get the sewage inspection or for ITEP to get that done as well.
Alright guys, we’ve got to take a quick add break, but in the next part of Rent to Story, we’re going to discuss how to know when it’s time to move on from your property manager. Now while you’re away, if you need a good property management company to help you with your real estate portfolio, head over to biggerpockets.com/property management to find a trusted property manager in your area. Alright guys, so welcome back. Getting back into Rana’s story. Now as you heard before the break, there were some challenges around the septic got that fixed $30,000 later, but the story continues. So let me continue Rana’s story so you guys can hear what happens next. So Ran says, after fixing all the sewage issues, $30,000 later we were finally able to get a good tenant in that ground unit and he’s been there for just under one year now.
As soon as he moved in, our tenants in both upstairs units stopped paying their rent. So we decided to move forward with evicting one tenant at a time. After about five months of court, it took the city eight weeks to actually evict. Once the judge gave the order, they destroyed, the unit, trashed it and the turn cost almost $4,000, not to mention the court fees, attorney’s fees and lost rents. Man, I am feeling for rents right now, you $30,000 on the first unit and then as soon as you get that fixed, you got two other tenants to stop paying. Now let me ask, have you ever had to evict a tenant before?

Noah:
I have, and it was actually this year and the only reason I’m laughing is I feel the pain through this story right now ran and I can definitely feel that there’s a really big expense when it comes to these things and it’s sometimes avoidable and sometimes not. And it’s unfortunate that we’re in this business at times.

Tony:
Yeah, it is an unfortunate part and if you landlord long enough, what’s the saying? It’s not a matter of if you’ll evict someone, but because we focus mostly on short term, we haven’t had to evict anyone. It’s not something that necessarily happens in this side of the space. But no, I guess let me ask you because I think the best way to avoid an eviction is by getting a better tenant upfront. So for your eviction that you went through, was this a tenant that you inherited or was it someone that you had actually screened and brought into the unit yourself?

Noah:
This was somebody that I actually placed myself, so it was definitely hard to look in the mirror and say that I’m the one that was the root cause of this. Not to say the unfortunate events that led to the eviction, it’s not like personal finances were in my control, but I look back and there’s five to 10 to probably 20 things that I could have done better on my screening and it led right back to me.

Tony:
Yeah, so let me ask then, Noah, what do you feel you missed? What were maybe some of those red flags you overlooked during the tenant screening process that maybe if you would’ve caught those things maybe act a little bit differently, you could have avoided that eviction?

Noah:
Yeah, so my tenants had actually moved in with a pretty new job and I was okay with taking a future employment letter and it was a couple of phone calls with the employer, had a couple phone calls with the previous landlords and to me it checked off all the boxes, but the unfortunate part of accepting a future employment letter was that they didn’t actually show up to their job then. So they were hired and then within three months stopped paying rent. Essentially my first couple months you could see the writing was on the wall that yeah, we’re going to be late this week, or excuse me, we’re going to be late this month by a week, we’re going to be late by two weeks and now we’re late by an entire month. So it really came back to me not doing my due diligence on the employment side of things.

Tony:
Yeah, I guess I’ve never thought about that being a potential challenge because you think like, hey, job letters in hand, most people are probably going to show up when they get offered a job, but maybe something to say, Hey, we got to wait until you actually get that first paycheck or something to that effect. No, I guess just generally speaking, are there any other maybe potential red flags that you as a landlord now look out for?

Noah:
Yeah, absolutely. When I was obviously self-managing this property, I was the one who was doing the tenant screening. I was the one who was showing up to do the showings as well, and I had a couple of applicants including the one that I actually placed that offered me three months of rent, four months of rent upfront. And to me that was a massive red flag. The fortunate part for me was that they checked off every other box they had the employment history, they had the future employment lined up, they had great landlord references. It was a normal family it seemed like to me on paper and then meeting them in person and just unfortunately we went down the road of eviction almost immediately at the immediately off the bat. So I would say that somebody offering you a lot of money upfront or trying to give you any kind of sob story to move in is an immediate red flag to me. And then obviously any landlord reference has any kind of remarks that give you any hair, stand up on your arms with a yellow flag or red flag. I would trust those landlord references probably more than anything else that has to do with the application process because they just had these tenants and now they’re giving ’em to you. If it was a terrible tenancy, they’re likely going to let you know unless they’re not the right landlord reference.

Tony:
No, I totally understand, Noah, the sob story of like, Hey, here’s what’s going on in my life, here’s why I need to get this unit. But maybe give the Ricky’s a little bit more insight why someone who’s willing to pay for maybe multiple months upfront may not be a good tenant. I feel it might be somewhat counterintuitive because as a landlord you’re getting four months of rent all at once, so there’s guaranteed rent at least for that timeframe. Why in your mind, might that be a potential red or yellow flag?

Noah:
Well, I think the answer is actually in the question they give you the four months of rent, that’s potentially all the money that they’re going to give you in their tenancy. I mean I’m a long-term investor, so these are 12 month leases. What’s the other eight months look like? Because this contract is for an entire year, but you’re basically only promising four months upfront and that’s maybe not even including the security deposit. So in reality that could be only three months of rent and deposit and if they’re not a great applicant you might be charging double security deposit. So that’s actually what I did moving forward. Next is if anybody came in lower than what was required on my even more strict application. Now moving forward since I essentially burnt myself was that I require a one and a half or a two times security deposit just to give myself a little bit more of that safety net. So I would absolutely run away from anybody that says I’m going to give you more than one month’s rent upfront unless you require that as a landlord on your application.

Tony:
Guys, one thing I will say is always check your local landlord and tenant laws because it will vary from state to state, from municipality to municipality. I know there are some states, I think New York, there’s a cap on what your security deposit can be. Ashley talked about that quite a bit as well. So just check those things now. No, I want to get into the actual eviction process and what that looked like for you. But before I do, I guess just one follow-up question. A common way to avoid going through the eviction process is cash for keys is just telling your tenant, I’m going to give you x dollar amount, I want you out by this date. Did you offer that to your tenants and were they responsive or did you just go straight for the eviction?

Noah:
I did and one of the pieces that I did with that was still post the 10 day demand on their door because I wanted to show that I was serious that I had a deadline. It’s not just, Hey, I’m going to offer you this to get out, it’s that if you don’t take this offer, option B is going to be the unfortunate road that we’re obviously going to talk about here. And what it went to was eviction. So I did offer that they didn’t want that. Of course it wasn’t enough to get them out to move into the next home or next apartment or wherever they went after that. And then posting that 10 day demand was me being as serious as I possibly be that we’re going to go down this route if you don’t accept offer a,

Tony:
Yeah, and obviously every tenant’s going to be slightly different, but if we look at ransom story here, it was thousand dollars just for the unit just to get the unit ready and then he still had the court fees, attorney fees, and the lost rent. So I don’t know, maybe let’s tack on another 2000 bucks maybe just to be conservative. So 6,000 bucks rents lost. So in theory he could have offered anything $6,000 or less and still came out on top. So even if he wants that tenant said, Hey, here’s five grand to get you out, but I want the place spic and span spotless when you leave, he’s out five grand, but he’s got a unit that’s still in good condition, doesn’t have to worry about the lost time of the eviction and all that stuff, and he can hopefully re-rent that unit faster. So guys, I totally understand as a landlord, this is your pride and joy. You put a lot of blood, sweat and soul and work into getting this listing up and running and just the kind of ego of it maybe wants you to never give someone just cash to walk out of your listing. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, sometimes it does make sense. So Noah, let’s actually walk through the eviction process. So your first eviction, what did that look like? What was your very first step?

Noah:
Yeah, so first step, like we kind of just said option A was let’s see if cash for keys is an option. Obviously it wasn’t same day simultaneously 10 day demand probably should have set the boundary or set the scene here a little bit better. But it was in the state of Colorado. So I know ran to stories in Chicago, so the duration is actually a little bit similar to what I felt, but I know that every state is going to have way different eviction laws. So take that with a grain of salt of course if you’re not in Colorado right now. But I started off with the 10 day demand essentially that took, well obviously it went up to 10 days and then now I send it over to my attorney. So once it gets sent over to the attorney, the attorney contacts the tenant basically says, Hey, do you have X amount of money to pay your 10 day demand or are we going to go to court?
And they didn’t have the money that was on the demand, which was about two months of rent at this point. So I’m pretty close to rent’s number here at about $4,000 with a $2,000 rental rate on this property. A couple weeks go by now, I want to say it was about 18 days until it was sent over to the eviction court then so we go to eviction then this was about one month now since the 10 day demand. And right after we go through eviction, it took about another two weeks to get the sheriff to come out then and then actually remove the tenants. So all in all, it took, I want to say about 15 to 16 weeks. It was a much longer process than I would’ve ever anticipated and definitely the number that I was offering for cash for keys was certainly lower than the number that I ended up paying out of pocket after this entire process. And again, rant, I’m laughing with you because I feel this pain just as much as you my friend.

Tony:
No, just ballpark. What were those two numbers? What did you offer cash for keys and what was your actual end cost after you went through the entire eviction process?

Noah:
Yeah, my offer for cash for keys was $4,000. I was only looking at it at two months of rent and I was like, okay, if you can get out in the next 60 days, I can rerent this place and I’m going to basically make my nut and get back to where I want to be. All in all, I will talk to my accountant in April, but I want to say it was just north of 9,000. I know it was just under 10,000. So somewhere in that ballpark and it was certainly not a fun process. Found out that the tenant actually moved in pets that weren’t supposed to be there too. So the turnover was a lot more expensive than I was ever imagining. The court fees were pretty much what I was anticipating. And then the lost rent was, it just drags on further and further than you can ever imagine. So take it from me to be as strict as you possibly can up front.

Tony:
Yeah, so you could have offered seven grand and say, Hey, I want you out by next Friday. And maybe that would’ve been the motivation to actually get them out. But again, we learned these lessons together, man. So I 16 weeks, that’s a long time. That’s a long time for an eviction man.

Noah:
I hate to say that it was at this time of the year, but the eviction started right at Christmas time. So it took everything a lot more. Everything went a lot slower than I think everybody was imagining at that point.

Tony:
Let me ask one follow-up question I guess for you now having gone through this process, do you now at all set money aside when you’re closing on a property for the possibility of an eviction or are you just calculating that in with your CapEx, with your vacancy, with your repairs and maintenance costs?

Noah:
Yeah, I will say that before I did so I would always save three months of reserves and that was basically just the mortgage payment. Now I look at it a little bit differently. Like you said, I break apart my CapEx from my vacancy rate, from my potential, my losses. So I also factor in maintenance and eviction into another bucket now. And now I’m closer to saving about six months of reserves in my CapEx. So again, for just numbers on this property, like I said, it was about $2,000 of rent. I’m keeping over $10,000 in a safety net account now instead of just living by the skin of my teeth at the 6,000 because that well ran dry a lot faster than I thought it would

Tony:
Guys. So no, appreciate all the insight there man, and kind of sharing your lessons learned on the eviction process. Now the next part of Ransom story, because believe it or not, there’s a little bit more here. We’re going to discuss how to know when it’s time to move on from your property manager. So we’ll be right back with Ransom story after a quick word from today’s show sponsors. Alright guys, we’re back and we’re going to finish off with the final part of Ransom’s story and unfortunately the news doesn’t get much better. So we first we have the sewage issue, then we have the tenant evictions, now we’ve got another one and the bad luck is kind of coming to a close, but now it’s talking about finding the right property manager. So here’s the final part of Ransom story. Ran says our management company at the time was trying to find new occupants for months and it was not looking good.
One day the manager called my wife very excited about an application they just reviewed as my wife and I were reviewing it. We saw a few things in the application and the credit report that looked funny after what we had just been through. We were very, very cautious. After about 10 minutes of digging, we found out that same applicant was applying with fraudulent information, the same fraudulent information our previous tenant used. Needless to say, we were more than frustrated with our management company for not catching this. We found a new management company that has helped us flip both units, give our current tenants some more structure, and is now fan of two additional tenants, one of which is our first CHA tenant. And just to clarify, CHA stands for Chicago Housing Authority. We are very excited to finally have a fully occupied property after about one and a half years of issues and huge sums of money going towards them, man. So super frustrating as the landlord here to have a property manager that maybe isn’t paying close enough attention to some of these details. I think it is something you see, especially as some of these PMs start to get bigger, that the attention per client or the attention per unit starts to go down a little bit and sometimes you overlook these things, but I guess now let me ask for your portfolio, do you have a pm? What does that look like for you personally?

Noah:
Currently now I have a full-time property manager. Previously I was self-managing my properties but moved across the country and I did not like the option of trying to self-manage from really far away.

Tony:
How many property managers have you gone through? Have you chosen one and been able to stick with that 1:00 PM or have you had to maybe cycle through a couple there?

Noah:
I’ve had the same property manager and I’ve actually, I haven’t had to fire them, but I’ve had tough conversations that required a pretty decent explanation that either led to either a discount on something because I was very frustrated with the timeline of things and I can get into that, but I haven’t had to fire a property manager. What about you, Tony? Have you had to fire anything on your short-term rental side of things?

Tony:
No, we do all of our management, so we haven’t had to fire anyone on that side. And when we were investing in long-term rentals, we only had 1:00 PM that we were using. But part of the reason why we were somewhat, I think fed up with the traditional long-term rental space was because it’s like our PM, and this was maybe unique to our situation, but I feel like you see it a lot across the country. But our RPM, they had their property management company, but then they also had a repair and maintenance slash construction company. And whenever a maintenance request came in on one of the units, their only option was, Hey, here’s our quote, or if you want a quote from someone else, you’ve got to find it yourself. So naturally I was busy working a W2 job, obviously fine, you guys should take care of it, but when you look out over the course of a year, they were making more money on the repairs and maintenance from us than they were from the actual management.
So it’s like we’re talking a few hundred bucks of cash flow on some of these long-term rentals and it starts to get eaten up by all these little kind of small, maybe somewhat overpriced repairs they’re doing on the property. And that’s where you start to get a little bit of the frustration. So we didn’t necessarily fire them for that reason, we just kind of left the long-term rental space altogether. But that was my experience with the PM side, I guess. No, you said there’s been some tough conversations. What was the genesis of that? What kind of led to those tough conversations?

Noah:
Yeah, so it was pretty similar it sounds like to what you kind of went through here where you were having those repair fees come up and you’re like, why are the maintenance hours this high on some of these? I actually just moved out of a property here in May and came out and thinking it was going to be pretty turnkey. I actually had the property manager walk the property with me and anticipate there was only going to be a couple hours of repairs. It turned out it came out to over 40 hours worth of repairs. So I immediately hop on the phone and I’m like, Hey guys, I need a really good explanation of what’s going on here on my owner portal. Nothing was being communicated all that well. So I was getting really nervous right out the gate. I already had one property being managed with them that had been going really smoothly, absolutely nothing, no repairs from the tenants, no problem getting it leased right away.
And I was really upset because I moved out of this place anticipating it’s only going to take about three weeks to turn this property and get a tenant in there. And it took about two months, so it was just starting to burn money. And with the repairs coming up, I started to question how much are we doing here? On one of the remarks it said we came, we didn’t have the supplies and we went back to Home Depot. So I said, why am I on the hook for this one? So they ultimately waived a leasing fee, they deducted some of the hours that were on the billing, but without that I likely would’ve started to look for a different property manager. But I do have, like I said, a pretty good relationship with my other property. This was hopefully only a one-off occurrence and it does give me a little bit of concern, but ultimately right now everything has gone smooth since that. And I can honestly say I’m happy right now, but definitely had a couple sleepless nights with what I was seeing on our timeline here.

Tony:
I think the challenge is, and this is maybe especially for the rookies, is that when you hire a property manager, you assume that they don’t need a lot of oversight, but that is not true. Property managers need oversight from you as the owner of the property and that’s called the asset management, right, where you’re managing the asset even though the PM zoom and the day-to-day stuff and reviewing things like why did it take you two hours to swap an air filter? You want to drill down on those things to get that insight and force them to be accountable to doing right by you as the owner. Let me ask you, what would cause you to potentially move on from the PM that you currently have?

Noah:
I would say lack of communication would be something that would make me walk away. Throughout this whole process though, I was extremely frustrated. I was being communicated to very, very fastly and I actually was able to talk to the owner of the company to really escalate my concerns and had a lot of really great conversations with him who wasn’t fully involved in the situation, but helped me remediate and resolve the issue. So I would say if there was no communication from upper level management or supervisor to say, Hey, I’m noticing something going on here, are other owners in your portfolio feeling this too? And ultimately that was what it came down to, which it did give me concern. But like I said, we’re at a point here today where things have gotten a lot better. Communication has been at an all time high. And like I said, if they didn’t talk to me throughout this process and I’m getting billed for all this and then hey, we have a tenant the next day, Noah, just to essentially shut me up, that would’ve left a really sour taste in my mouth and I would’ve definitely sought another property manager right at the gate.

Tony:
And I think going back to Rana’s story here, I think the lack of attention to detail is a big one. Also. It’s like, guys, you saw what we just went through of having to evict not one but two tenants and you’re trying to set me up and for the exact same thing to happen all over again. That would be a rather pretty big red flag for me as well, right, is like, guys, we got to do better here. We got to do better here. So no, you’ve gone through some ups and downs in your investing journey as well. We’ve seen the same thing in our portfolio as well. I guess just maybe what is your perspective or maybe advice for Ricky’s that are getting into this who hear ran a story and think, see I told you guys real estate investing isn’t as great as everyone makes it out to be. What’s your advice to folks who might be here or might be thinking that here in ran a story?

Noah:
I think as aggressive and as leveraging, you want to get right out the gate, be as safe as possible when it comes to your reserves. And I think Ran and I are great examples of, we have calluses from our first couple of properties, our first couple of years in investing, and I wouldn’t expect any rookie owner that is relying on a full-time property manager to go and dive into applications that they’re supposed to be screening. It took rants to get burnt a lot of money to go back and say, Hey, this is an application that you guys have already done. I don’t go and look at the applications that my property managers have screened because I haven’t had problems with tenant placing since I’ve had a full-time property manager. But I go and I look really deeply into my repairs now because I’ve gotten burnt once or twice on repairs being too high or repairs them not being prepared for them and things like that.
So I would say always have a reserve probably twice as much as you’re anticipating right at the gate. I know a lot of people like to say two or three times your mortgage. I was that way where I only had three times my mortgage in a savings account that I wasn’t really accumulating any money to say it’s going to be six times in a couple months. Have that reserve. I would even go as aggressive as one year. If you really are concerned about getting into the game and if you’re not concerned about getting into the game, let rants, let Tony, let my story be just a guiding light that you’re going to need money outside of your tenant’s rent coming in.

Tony:
Yeah, no, you framed that up perfectly and think a little more cash in the bank can oftentimes let you sleep a little bit easier at night. But I think the other piece to that’s important to understand here, guys, and this is for all of the rookies that are listening, there is always going to be some level of risk in investing in real estate. Just point blank period. But the reason that we’re able to get a reward is because we’re willing to accept some level of risk. So the goal that you start to invest is how do you maximize your upside while also minimizing your downside? And I think the purpose of today’s episode was to give you some tactical things you can focus on to help reduce that downside. So screening your tenants a little bit more effectively, keeping a really close watch over the work that your property manager is doing, not skimping out on your due diligence period and really doing all the inspections. It sounds simple, but those are the things you can put in place to help reduce the risk of actually owning this asset. Now, any final words on your side, brother?

Noah:
One thing I would say is if your home inspector recommends you additional packages onto their home inspection, don’t think that they’re the next average Joe salesman. These are going to save you money in the long term, I guarantee it. So absolutely do your due diligence upfront.

Tony:
Awesome. Well, no, thank you so much for joining us today, brother Ricky’s. If you guys want to get involved in the community and the same place that Ran went to share his story and get support and get advice, head over to biggerpockets.com/forums. Okay, that’s biggerpockets.com/forums. Look, we hope you guys got some value out of hearing the story today. And if you’re enjoying the Real Estate Ricky Podcast, whatever podcast player you’re listening on, make sure to subscribe and follow. If you’re on YouTube, do the same thing there, share it with a friend. But we appreciate you guys and we’ll see you on the next episode of Real Estate Ricky.

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • Why home inspection packages aren’t just another sales scam to ignore
  • Why doing your due diligence upfront could stop you from buying a “problem” property
  • How to save thousands in eviction costs with a “cash for keys” offer
  • Why you need to create strict tenant screening requirements (and stick to them!)
  • The number one attribute to look for in a property management company
  • How much money a new investor should be keeping in reserves
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Why This “Physician on FIRE” Ignored the 4% Rule & Delayed Early Retirement

Why do many wealthy people wait so long to retire? Despite earning a physician’s salary, living frugally, and saving what most would call “more than enough” money, today’s guest worked for another four years before pulling the trigger on early retirement. Is he on to something? Does the four-percent rule no longer work in 2024? Stay tuned to find out!

Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Money podcast! Leif Dahleen, MD, the “Physician on FIRE,” was already financially independent when he discovered the FIRE movement. But rather than calling time on a successful healthcare career, he continued to beef up his nest egg. Why? Leif had determined that he needed forty-to-fifty times his annual expenses to feel comfortable walking away from his nine-to-five. Do more FI-focused folks need to follow Leif’s formula to account for the unknown?

We’ve all dreamed of what a day in the life of an early retiree might look like. Leif had his own expectations, but in this episode, he shares what he discovered when his schedule was suddenly clear. You’ll also learn about the mindset high-income earners need to avoid squandering wealth, and why putting down roots in a low-cost-of-living area could be the difference between fast-tracking retirement and keeping up with the Joneses!

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Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Mindy:
Do you have a career that’s hard to walk away from? Whether it’s because you’ve invested time and money into your education or took the time to climb the corporate ladder to finally be at the top? Can you really walk away when you hit the 4% rule and should you, we will break that down today. Hello, hello, hello and welcome to the BiggerPockets Money Podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and with me as always is my CEO on Fire Co-host Scott Trench.

Scott:
Thanks, Mindy. Always great to be here doctoring up someone’s financials here. Looking forward to it today, BiggerPockets is a goal of creating 1 million millionaires. You are in the right place if you want to get your financial house in order because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for everyone, no matter when or where you’re starting. We are so excited to have Leaf physician on fire here on BiggerPockets money today. And Leaf, of course, for those who know him, started in a great spot to approach fire. He is a doctor earning a very high income and spent very little out of the Midwest. No surprises that he was able to satisfy the financial independence equation and do that between the frugality and the very high powered offense on the income front. But we’re also going to talk about his business success, which he started Wall working full-time as an anesthesiologist and how that’s parlayed into the ultimate early retirement and incredible options. We’re also going to get into the mindset of actually retiring and how you might really have to go well beyond the 4% rule in order to pull the trigger.

Mindy:
Before we get into leave story, we want to thank our sponsor. This episode is brought to you by Connect, invest real estate investing simplified and within your reach. Now back to the show, leaf Darlene, physician on fire. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. I’m so excited to talk to you.

Leif:
This should be a lot of fun. I’m overdue to join you on the podcast, and so I’m glad we could be here. I’m glad Scott was able to join us and this should be a lot of fun.

Mindy:
This will be a lot of fun. For those of you who do not know, leaf is the man, the myth, the legend behind the Physician on Fire Blog and also not just a clever name. He is actually a physician. So Leaf, you have an unfair advantage. That’s a phrase we use here on the BiggerPockets Money podcast, and your unfair advantage is that you make a boatload of money because you’re a doctor. How did you go from being a doctor to being financially independent? I mean, it doesn’t seem like it’s that big of a stretch. Wow, you make a lot of money, you don’t spend a lot of money. You save it up, you invest and then you retire. But there’s a lot more to it, especially for somebody who is in a occupation that is so closely tied to your personality and your person.

Leif:
Sure. Cheryl, you answered part of the question for me. Earned a lot. Saved a lot invested, and lo and behold, we had enough money to do we wanted including retire. But I think one of the big challenges is the fact that there are expectations from society, maybe from family, from friends, like, oh, you’re a doctor, you’re a rich doctor. And it starts when you’re in medical school, which is many, many years for becoming a poor doctor and then maybe decades away from being a rich doctor. So the expectation to drive a particular type of vehicle or live in a certain neighborhood, it’s definitely there. And so I think for me, just my identity was somewhat tied up in being a position, but I looked at it more of a, that’s my job, that’s a career, but it doesn’t define me and it certainly doesn’t need to define how I live my life.
And I found it quite easy to save, believe it or not, when I was making three to $400,000 a year. But I certainly know many, many, many, many physicians who had similar earning power and were not saving because Ms. Delayed gratification that we all deal with in our twenties often leads to an explosion of spending in our thirties. And I feel like I was pretty well able to avoid that. I married someone who have both met and know were relatively frugal compared to our peers, even if we might look like spend thrift compared to the average American household.

Mindy:
So I think that that is the point that I want to dive into in this episode is you had to make different choices. I mean, you said it yourself, oh, I was making three or $400,000 a year. How on earth did I retire so early? I guess we’ll never know. It’s really not difficult to see the facts, but there’s a lot more nuance to it. Like you said, doctors drive fancy cars. They don’t drive HHR except they do sometimes. And did you ever feel like fellow doctors were kind of looking down on you when you were making these choices that didn’t align with the traditional rich doctor vibe?

Leif:
I can almost guarantee maybe looking down isn’t the right term, but questioning and being curious and wondering why I hadn’t yet upgraded to something better to drive. But the fact is I didn’t care that much what I drove, and it certainly helps to not care too much about what other people think. Like in rural Minnesota, rural Michigan, very few people drive really nice vehicles and if you do, that might get you some envy. It might get some weird looks like who does he think he is kind of thing, right? I am not in where I’m trying to valet park my little Chevrolet when there’s Lamborghinis and Ferraris all around the nicer cars in the doctor’s parking lot might be a Ford F-150. Maybe they got the Raptor version or something, but it was not, the Midwest, as you know, is not as showy, for lack of a better word. It’s some other places in the world. So living in relatively low cost of living areas and places where modesty is a virtue certainly makes it easier to live the way we did.

Scott:
I think that there’s not a lot of, it makes sense, right? Mid six figure salary, middle class lifestyle in the Midwest, numbers are going to work out. You don’t have to be a great investor, although I know that you are a great investor and because you index fund the index fund, so you’re a great investor, pretty easy to be. Great.
Yeah, there’s a big bull market, so not hard I think to understand how you achieve fire at the highest level. All that needs to pass is a couple of years and the wealth will begin to compound really nicely in that front. But I don’t think a lot of people set out to become doctors so that they can retire early. That’s not really the general life path there. I think there’s more to it around fire in the concept of being a doctor that is more of a mental challenge. Can you walk us through how you think about actually leaving the medical profession once the numbers make sense?

Leif:
Yeah, and I want to clarify, and I don’t think you really made that accusation or whatever it may be, but I certainly didn’t enter the profession with the goal of retiring early from it. Oh, of course not. It was one of those things where I was good at science and math and graduated top of my class and my grandpa was a doctor and my dad and his dad were dentists. We had to have healthcare in the blood. It was kind of an, I don’t want to say obvious decision, but it was one of those things I knew I could do and chose to do and it was a good stable career. And so I found my way into anesthesiology and about 10 years into it, into my career that is after college, after medical school, after a four year residency and then 10 years in, I was at a place where I like my job all right, but I always like my days off even more, my weeks off even more than that. And I guess the question is how do you stop making that $400,000 a year and be okay with it?
One thing that makes my case just a terrible test case, terrible case study, is the fact that when I did discover financial independence and it was what, 20 14, 20 15, I realized it was a whole area of study that I had kind of ignored. I knew enough to invest in mutual funds and not to buy whole life insurance, but I didn’t know all that much about personal finance or investing and I had never heard about financial independence until I discovered these fire blogs and I knew that other doctors were in the same boat. I probably had more of an interest in it than most people in my profession and I still didn’t know much. So I decided to start a website talking about it. You mentioned it in the intro position on fire and I’ve since moved on and sold the site to a couple of enterprising physicians who are doing a good job with it and they’ve had it in their hands for the last, almost a year and a half now.
But what makes my a case study terrible is the fact that I made additional money doing that while I was running it and then when I sold it. But the truth is I discovered financial independence or let’s say 2015 and that my investments realized at the time spending about 70,000 a year. Now this is after our mortgage was paid off after my student loans were paid off, all of that, our expenses were pretty modest, 70,000 a year, seven years ago, probably closer to a hundred thousand a year now, but we are financially independent. When I learned about it, I just did the numbers like 25 times that, yeah, that’s about where we’re at. I worked another four or five years in anesthesia, and so I would’ve been between the additional money I made and saved during that additional four to five years and the investment returns on our nest egg, which was already about 25 XI even without the website would’ve retired with probably pretty close to double what I would need to be financially independent. And then the earnings from running a fairly successful online business and then selling it put us even another level beyond that. So financially the decision was easy to make.

Mindy:
You said after you discovered the concept of financial independence and you’d learned that you were financially independent already, you continued to work for four or five more years. Why did you continue to work?

Leif:
I liked the job. It really did. I just would’ve felt, I don’t know, to me irresponsible to just walk away as soon as I had the money in my hand. I liked where we were living. I just didn’t really want to make a drastic change and part of starting that blog and writing about it and putting my thoughts out there for the world to read and react to and respond to was a good way for me to work through the finances, the psychological impact, all of that. It really helped me kind of solidify I wanted to do where I was at and got quite a lot of good feedback. Other people in similar situations, how would they approach choosing retirement versus working part-time, which I did the last two years, and so I kind of eased into it, but it wasn’t so much part of my identity that my ego would suffer if I wasn’t working as an anesthesiologist. And so I learned that over the course of those three to five years by thinking about it, writing about it, and even practicing some mini retirement style tricks.

Mindy:
Stay tuned for more from Leaf on why the 4% rule didn’t work for him and why most people don’t use it today. After a quick break, welcome back. We’re here with Leaf dalene. Let’s jump back in

Scott:
Leaf mechanically, how do you fund your lifestyle? Is it from dividends from your portfolio? Is it from these other types of income streams? How do you actually pull money from your investment portfolio to fund your lifestyle full time?

Leif:
Yeah, that’s a great question, Scott. The plan I had was like you mentioned, dividends from a taxable investments, which are primarily index funds, a real estate fund or two, and then I would sell lots that have the least amount of gain to minimize my capital gains taxes. And I have been collecting on a 4 57 B account, which is a deferred compensation account that I grew to, again, multiple six figures to repeat that phrase over my 13 year anesthesia career. And so I get a few thousand a month from that. So I had it all planned out and then I sold the blog and I self-financed a significant portion of that. And so I get a check every month that covers our expenses and that will last for quite a while. So again, terrible test case. I did have a plan and it was working, but now I don’t really need that plan. I have this plan B.

Mindy:
So when you started the blog, did you start it with the idea that you were going to sell it eventually or did you start it just as something fun to do?

Leif:
I didn’t really think about an end game or an exit plan. I mean, if you would’ve asked me back then, do you think this will make money? I’d be like, well, I mean if it makes a hundred bucks a month, that’d be really cool. But I did not expect it to do way better than that. I guess I did realize maybe a couple of three years in that this truly is an asset that someday could be sold. And when you have a business that’s very much one person focused, you want to, if you think you might want to take that exit someday, you kind of have to pull yourself back a little bit from the focus and make it more about the reader, which I kind of always tried to do. But once I realized, oh, this is a business time to stay blog, I tried to make sure that my focus was on the reader and not just an online diary or here’s, here’s me, here’s what I’m doing. This isn’t about me, this is about you.

Scott:
One of the things that has bugged me for fire and for countless BP money listeners is this concept of nobody actually ever retires on the 4% rule. It is the math of sound. We’ve exhausted that. We’ve talked to the originator of the 4% rule, the Trinity Study, bill Bangin, we’ve talked to Michael Kites who has expanded on that work and refined it and polished it, made it really shiny. So we’ve talked about it then we’re not questioning the math, but nobody ever actually acts on that. Again, if you find that person who is truly a 4% rule early retiree with no other income streams, no large cash cushion, no social security, please refer ’em to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. We would love to interview them. We have never found that person and I don’t think we ever will. What is striking about your situation is not that you’re abnormal, but that is every early retiree we’ve talked to has this that’s actually living the early retiree lifestyle and is not working. Generating income has these ACEs in the hole. Something else beyond that, like a massive real estate portfolio or a large cash position or a pension or a business or a side hustle or they work, I went back to work or their wifi, that’s a popular one too. But I’m more curious about getting into your head here and thinking, do you think you would have been able to retire on the 4%

Leif:
Rule and make that leap? And when I was blocking, I wrote up an investor policy statement and in that I said that I would retire with 40 to 50 x hour spending and Y so much that gives me a two to two and a half percent withdrawal rate, which is quite a bit lower than 4%. And there are a few reasons I figured I wanted that cushion to allow myself to spend more to allow for inflation due to the fact that I still kind of enjoyed working. It wasn’t like a hardship or a travesty to continue to work and since I already had 25 x, well, if that goes up 10%, that’s another 2.5. And I was making a multiple of our annual spending so I could set aside about three x per year. So every year that I worked, I might be adding about five years worth of spending between my investment returns and my earnings when we were spending so little.
So it just seemed like, yeah, it seems well worth it to continue on another four to five years in what at the time was a fairly new job while my kids were young and going to be in school. So without, I can go back and look at that and that was written with no assumption of any online income and say that’s where I would’ve been comfortable. So we’re in that two to two and a half percent withdrawal rate based on what our spending was then. But also understanding that in retirement that can change. You’re going to, in our case, travel more, which is more expensive than staying home. We’re going to potentially regret the cars that we drive. You never know, and we probably, yeah, I guess we have upgraded. We bought our first new car in retirement. So just knowing that there are many unknowns and it’s the unknown unknowns that I wanted to have that large cushion for.

Mindy:
Do you believe in the 4% rule, do you believe that 4% is a withdrawal rate that is sustainable? You mentioned 2.5 and I know that leans more towards big earn and his thought process and the 4% rule is originally meant for a 30 year timeline and you God willing will be a much longer timeline, which is where big earns advice and recommendations towards the lower end.

Leif:
Yeah, excellent point. That’s another reason, but I do, I think the 4% rule can work for sure, and for some people they’re not adding four or five years worth of spending every year that they work. They might be adding a half years worth of spending every year that they work. And so boy, to get that far beyond 4% might be a hardship. It might be a decade or more. So I mean you can look at the historical data a million different ways kids has, baker has Bill Bein has and the Trinity study, all of that. I’ve certainly looked at all of it and yeah, it is sound for a 30 year timeframe. There’s a very, very, very good chance that you will not run out of money. So yeah, I guess my answer is I do believe it can work, but I thought it would be easy enough to just work a little longer, one more year, four more times and yeah,

Scott:
That’s it. That that’s the thing is again, I think what’s super valuable for people listening here is here’s a guy who’s actually retired 300 bucks time in the track, meet the local high school and who knows the math as well as anyone. You literally ran the website physician on fire for years, which is a great fire website that talks about the 4% rule and these types of things. Yet your policy statement does not allow you to retire on the 4% rule. By the way, neither does mine. Mine’s posted publicly on BiggerPockets website around that. I ain’t retiring on the 4% rule on that and nothing else because I’ve interviewed too many people to know that nobody’s mind actually works that way with just that level of wealth. You crossed the threshold to fire, but you’re not actually retiring early on that level of wealth, even if that’s what you do all day long.
And the math as well as anybody in the industry, and that’s the phenomenon that fascinates me here on BiggerPockets money is the 4% crossing. The 4% rule threshold is the starting point. Now the journey to actually retiring begins and that often takes people several years of transition or comes with so much abundance that it’s kind of like, what the heck did I go to work for today on this? Which we occasionally have crossed on finance Fridays where the guy’s job was clearly just holding him back and was a completely waste of time relative to the overall financial position.

Leif:
I can’t say that I won’t ever truly work again. I mean something might just cross my plate that just sounds like really cool or it might be something that I start independently on my own. I’m 48 years old today and tomorrow and the next day, so I’ve got plenty of time and youth and the sound mind I think to do something different if I choose to. Right now it’s still pretty fresh. I’m a little more than five years retired from medicine. I’m about a year and a half retired from blogging and I’ve spent most of that last year building this house, moving into it, making it our own and traveling in the summer and being a stay-at-home Dad married to a stay-at-home mom, but it’s all very fresh and at some point, especially when we’re in an empty nest situation, maybe I’ll feel differently about being retired and staying truly retired.
So if I come back on the show in five years, maybe I would have a very different perspective and I never try to make long-term plans more than about a five year plan because man plans, God laughs, right? It’s going to be very different no matter what I think it’s going to look like in five years, whether due to exterior circumstances or internal motivations and you change your mind and who knows. So I’m not saying I’m not going to announce anything. I don’t have anything to announce, but I know enough to not say that here I am, I’m retired and I’m never going to work again because that’s not how,

Scott:
This is the soft launch of smaller pockets from Leaf from 2027 that we just heard here. So love it here.

Mindy:
We have to take one final break, but more from leaf on life after Phi when we’re back. Welcome back to the show.

Scott:
Let me ask you another question here that relates to this question around the 4% rule and why I think very few people actually stop working at the 4% rule. Let’s say that my goal is let’s use a hundred thousand dollars in annual spend and the goal is 30 times that number, so it’s $3 million in wealth, and then you have a year like last year or the year before where the stock market goes up 20 percentish from that point. So now you got 3.6 million, which is 36 times and maybe you’re well past it, maybe it’s been five or six years since that point and there’s so much more than what you had intended at your retirement, which I think is actually going to be a normal because the 4% rule again is so conservative that most scenarios end up with wealth being much greater,

Leif:
Right? You started at that a hundred thousand and adjust for inflation, not adjusting for your portfolio at all if you’re doing it by,

Scott:
That’s right. If you’re just in stocks in that portfolio that’s happened to everyone who fired 5, 6, 7 years ago for example, from a relative wealth perspective, even after accounting for inflation around that. And so how does that change the perspective on life and time and money at that point? Do you feel like an obligation to some degree to do more travel upgrade things to a fancier level, buy the nice car? How does that change your perspective when what I think is the average outcome for folks in your situation that have retired five, six years ago transpires over a couple of years?

Leif:
Well, I guess what you’re saying is that anyone who retired in my cohort of that five to six years ago, four or five, six years ago, we’ve seen tremendous stock market returns over that timeframe. And what we’ve done essentially is survive the most critical period where a negative sequence of returns can really make the rest of your financial life a little more difficult. It makes it less likely that your money is going to grow over the 30 year period because if in that five years and the most important years for survival of your portfolio is about two years before you retire to about five years after there’s that seven, maybe 10 year timeframe where if the stock market goes down each of those years and you are spending now, it’s going to be a bit more than 4%, maybe it’s 5%, maybe it’s 6%. If you’re going by the book starting with 4% of the initial balance and adjusting with inflation each year and ignoring the actual value of the balance of the portfolio, then you’re actually spending a larger and larger percentage.
Now in that situation, a human might say, I’m not going to stick with this. Buy the book 4% of what I started with adjusted for inflation. I can see that I have 28% less dollars than I did two or three years ago. I’m going to spend less. We’re going to take one less vacation. We’re going to postpone buying a new car to replace the used car. And so you’re asking about the opposite. Well, we are no longer really at risk of succumbing to a poor sequence of returns. And I think you’re right that we could choose to spend a bit more than the formula might suggest. On the flip side, boom, times tend to be followed by bust times. There’s a lot of volatility over the years. So you don’t want to go hog wild. You don’t want to do a reset after they run up of 50% or a hundred percent. You don’t want to get, okay, now it’s 4% of the 3.6 million because the 4% rule does account for good times and bad times. But if you’ve only seen good times and you do a reset, now again, you are at risk of sequence of returns going downward, which they probably will in the not too distant future.

Scott:
So the answer is don’t move the goalposts, that’s it. And the pile gets bigger and bigger, which just continues to create to keep things very stable, but you just don’t move the goalpost and that just gives you more and more and more and more security. And it sounds like the other part of it is you’re just content with exactly what you have from a lifestyle perspective. And there’s also probably not that pull too with withdrawal more than what you have. Are those factors coming in?

Leif:
Yeah, that’s good. I’m not saying that you should never spend your investment returns because most of us who are following, not even the 4% rule, but something less than that are going to end up with piles of money when we die, unless we give it away while we’re still alive or choose to spend a lot more. And I think the younger you are, the more cautious you should be because I still know that I could have a 50 plus year investing timeframe, but my parents who just came to visit, they are in their late seventies and their investments have done well recently. I’m not going to tell them to forego that $30,000 trip to South Africa that they took or whatever it might be, right? They’re at a point where they don’t need to worry about 50 years, 20, 25, that’s a possibility. But 50 plus, no, it’s incredibly unlikely. And unless there are scientific advances that are coming and coming soon that will blow us all away.

Mindy:
What is the biggest difference between what you thought retirement was going to be like and what reality actually is?

Leif:
I think I probably assumed I would be more productive. Do you know Parkinson’s law?

Mindy:
I don’t.

Leif:
Yeah,

Scott:
Scott. I believe that’s the one where time or a task will swell to fill the time that you allot to it.

Leif:
Exactly. Exactly. So when you have unlimited time, the things that you want to accomplish have an unlimited timeframe and no deadline. And so I find it’s much easier to procrastinate and things that I might’ve gotten done in a weekend because I have the weekend and that’s all I had, well, I’ll work on it and I’ll putz around for an hour or two here and an hour or two there, but there’s much less urgency in many of those things that, oh, I’ll get to it eventually. So I guess I thought I would be more productive in certain ways, and I think I have found a balance where I like to do different things throughout the day and not just focus on one thing all day long.

Mindy:
Yeah, the productivity aspect. I am not retired, but my husband is, and I have seen him as soon as he was done working, he’s like, this is my time now. I have to run everywhere and be so fast all the time and just produce, produce, produce. And I was like, or you could take a break because now you’re retired and now he’s morphing into the, it takes a lot longer to get things done because I don’t want to say there’s no sense of urgency and I’m certainly not throwing him under the bus.

Leif:
Probably a better sense of balance, right?

Mindy:
Yes. It’s okay to read a whole book that doesn’t teach you anything. It’s okay to go and run a marathon if that’s your jam, which it is not mine, but I hope you win.

Leif:
Yeah, no, that’s definitely, definitely true. Before the, we started recording, we were talking about what we did on the weekend and I was like, gosh, which days were the weekend? Oh yeah. Let’s see. We had a family gathering and I made a bunch of pizzas and then I watched football the rest of Saturday and most of the Sunday too. And that’s okay. I enjoy football. Didn’t get a lot done this weekend.

Mindy:
Yeah, but also, what else do you have to do?

Leif:
Talk to you, talk to Scott.

Mindy:
Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think it’s perfectly valid to take your time and enjoy your life.

Leif:
I

Scott:
Make dinner most days. Yeah. Alright, well Lee, thank you so much for coming on today and sharing your story with us. Thanks for sharing my day in the life of retirement looks like and being so open about the actual reality of getting way past it from a financial standpoint before making a leap. Super interesting. Congratulations on your fantastic retirement and your multi marathon. Your mornings you have won’t even run the full marathons on there. That’s just trading for you it sounds like at this point. So congrats on that and can’t wait to see what the next couple of years bring for and last. Super excited for the launch of smaller pockets.

Leif:
I got to check that before you do. If I log off quick, you know why domain name.com

Mindy:
Leaf, it was great to talk to you. Thank you so much for your time today and we’ll talk to you soon.

Leif:
Sounds good. Thank you, Mindy. Thank you, Scott. We’ll see you soon.

Mindy:
That wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast. He of course is the Scott Trench, and I am Mindy Jensen saying, take a bow, Highland Cow.

Watch the Episode Here

https://youtube.com/watch?v=eHjoI2L5sPo

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In This Episode We Cover

  • Why most people DON’T retire on the four-percent rule (even though it works!)
  • Fast-tracking the path to early retirement in a low-cost-of-living area
  • How to actually leave your W2 job once you have enough money to retire
  • Why earning a high income doesn’t guarantee FIRE (and common pitfalls to avoid!)
  • Choosing the right retirement withdrawal strategy for your financial situation
  • Why Leif won’t adjust his retirement lifestyle as he continues to build wealth
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

BiggerNews: Will Lower Rates Remove America’s “Golden Handcuffs”?

For years, we’ve been told that lower mortgage rates could reignite homebuyer demand and help improve affordability so first-time homebuyers (or even rookie landlords) can finally buy their first property. But, with mortgage interest rates lowering right before our eyes, we’re noticing something peculiar—affordability isn’t improving. Home prices are staying stagnant, if not rising. Thanks to America’s “golden handcuffs,” we’re still in a housing market standoff, but there might be some solutions to fix it.

We’re bringing on The New York Times’ Rukmini Callimachi, a real estate correspondent, to shed light on the vast affordability crisis affecting America. With homes “unmanageably expensive,” regardless of whether you’re renting or buying, we need solutions that don’t just spark up demand (like lowering mortgage rates). There’s one glaring problem plaguing the property market, but why won’t anybody fix it?

Today, we’re cracking this discussion wide open, speaking on the solutions that could ACTUALLY increase affordability in the future, the rising homelessness problem affecting working Americans and students, and how NIMBYism (not in my backyard) could be forcefully put to stop as communities struggle to build enough housing. If you want to get in (or get back in) the real estate game, whether as an investor, house hacker, or first-time homebuyer, these solutions could directly affect you!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
Mortgage rates are starting to come down, which is of course encouraging, but affordability actually isn’t starting to budge yet, and that’s creating this massive, massive log jam in the American housing market. One estimate actually says that as many as 800,000 moves didn’t happen last year because of this golden handcuffs effects that’s going on, it’s affecting everyone from homeowners to renters to real estate investors like us. So what can we do about this huge problem? There is unfortunately no perfect solution, but there are some interesting options that we’re going to be digging into to Happy Friday everyone. It’s Dave here, and I’m back for another bigger news episode, and today we’re talking with New York Times real estate correspondent Rui Kalama, and she spends a lot of her time talking to some of the foremost economists and experts on the real estate market and choose some amazing takeaways about what’s going on with affordability, its root causes, the lack of supply that’s going on, and what some potential solutions are. In today’s episode, we’re going to talk about the relationship between interest rates, home sales, and affordability, how we even got to this point in the first place, which is spoiler lack of housing supply. And we’ll talk about some of the more creative solutions to the supply side of the housing crisis. If you want the latest on modular housing and a DU zoning, stick around for that conversation, which we’ll be having at the end as well. Alright, let’s get to Rick Meany. Rick Bini, thank you so much for joining us today.

Rukmini:
It’s my pleasure to be here, Dave. Thank you.

Dave:
Let’s start by having you just tell us a little bit about yourself and the topics you cover for the New York Times.

Rukmini:
Yes. I cover real estate for the New York Times. I’ve been a journalist for 25 years, and I spent the bulk of that overseas in Africa, in West Africa as a correspondent and later a bureau chief for the Associated Press. From there, I got into terrorism reporting, so for about seven years I was covering ISIS and Al-Qaeda for the Times, and I now cover real estate and housing.

Dave:
Wow, that’s quite a career and hopefully a little less stressful covering real estate than some of your previous positions.

Rukmini:
You’ll be amazed at how many opinions people have about real estate.

Dave:
Oh, I’m very familiar with that.

Rukmini:
They’ll feel strongly about it.

Dave:
They do. Yeah, it’s a big part of American culture of real estate, and so I think people do have strong opinions and for good reason, and that’s why I have a job, so I’m very grateful for it.

Rukmini:
Yes.

Dave:
So let’s just talk a little bit about one of your more recent pieces where you’re talking about the relationship between mortgage rates and home prices, and this might be familiar to some of our audience, but we always have new people joining this. So can you just tell us briefly how those trends have evolved over the last few years?

Rukmini:
Well, I think the biggest takeaway right now is that according data from federal sources, six out of 10 American homeowners who have a mortgage have rates that are under 4%. If you’re like me, you have rates in the 2%, right?

Dave:
Ooh, twos. Those are rare. That’s

Rukmini:
Impressive. I think a lot of people refinanced in the twos in lead up to the pandemic. What that means is that there’s what economists are now calling a rate lock effect or a golden handcuff effect where people do not want or cannot afford to sell their home because they would be hit with, I was just checking the rates on Freddie Mac, and as of this morning we’re down to 6.09% for the mortgage rate, which is lower than it was in the fall where it was close to 8%. But if you are one of the majority of homeowners who has rates under 4%, why would you want to give up that rate? The second thing that’s happened is that there’s been such a dramatic increase in home prices that if all things were equal and I was just to move across the street, put the rate aside, my home here, I bought it for roughly half the cost of what a very similar looking home across the street would cost. So people are being hit by these two forces, both the very high cost of homes and the fact that they would now be entering a rate that is for the majority of people, several points higher than they currently have, and that’s created a gridlock where people don’t want to sell. And because there’s no churn in the market, it’s created all sorts of secondary effects where people can’t move, people can’t buy, and affordability is at an all time low.

Dave:
Thank you for providing that context. And I just want to provide one other point that this is a major reason, not just why transaction volumes down, which it is a gridlock. We’ve actually seen total number of homes sold. It’s dropped 50% since the peak of the pandemic. It’s well below what it normally is. And so in addition, this is really impacting the whole industry, especially people like agents and lenders, property managers, people who live off transaction volume are obviously feeling this, but it’s also a major reason why prices are not moving so much. Is that correct, Rukmini?

Rukmini:
I think that’s right. And a couple of data points that I collected recently when I was writing the most recent piece in the period of fall 2022 to sort of third quarter of 2023, 800,000 moves were deferred. 800,000 families households basically put off moving. So this movement that you tend to have in the industry is just not occurring. People are deferring the move up that you traditionally go through when you get married, have a kid, have a second kid. That family that pre pandemic had maybe a 1-year-old now has a five-year-old and maybe a second, and they still have only a single bathroom. They would perhaps have liked to move into something bigger and they just can’t. Another data point, since we’re on track in 2024 to have the least home sales since 1995, but the country has 70 million more people since then.

Dave:
Wow.

Rukmini:
So it’s just we’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel as a result of these conflicting forces.

Dave:
That’s a stat I had never heard before. Of that, the 800,000 moves had been deferred.

Rukmini:
Yes.

Dave:
What is the source for that, just out of personal curiosity?

Rukmini:
Oh, it’s a paper published last month actually by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Dave:
Oh, okay.

Rukmini:
It was Lance Lambert at Resi Club who I think does a really good job of amassing some of this data, pointed it out to me and it’s concordant with everything that we are seeing anecdotally.

Dave:
Well, the reason I’m asking, it’s a really interesting stat because there’s ways to measure demand that’s on the sideline, but that’s a new one for me because as an investor or an economist, I’m just curious if their demand is just permanently lost or are people just waiting until conditions change? And at least the wording you use that it’s deferred, means that all these people still intend to move, that they still want to. And is the idea then that they’re just waiting till affordability gets restored and then they’ll move?

Rukmini:
So the economist that I serve, and I spoke to seven for this one piece, they seem to all agree that rates need to get into the mid to low fives for things to start to move in some shape or form. And that’s still a long ways away. That’s 2025 if predictions are on point. And what we don’t know is even if rates come down, will the prices of homes continue to rise? There’s this kind of sisyphean battle that’s happening for people who are sitting on the sidelines right now. Imagine first time buyers, they may be waiting for the rate to come down, but every month that they wait, the home price index is going up. I was speaking to an expert at Harvard at their housing center, and who calculated the numbers for me? Who said that back when I published this piece, which was a few weeks ago? Yes, the rate had dropped more than a point since it’s high back then, but he said that in order to get back to where the home prices were, you’d have to rewind the clock to around January of 2024.

Dave:
So yeah, you have these sort of conflicting forces and just want to define this for everyone because talking a lot about affordability basically means how easy is it for the average American to buy the average price home?
And it’s sort of this three-legged stool. There’s three components that go into affordability, home prices, pretty obvious. Mortgage rates also pretty obvious. Most people use debt. And then the third one is real wage growth. So that’s basically how quickly wages or income are growing. And so basically how easily someone can afford the price point at a given interest rate. And so what Edia is saying and makes sense is that unfortunately, it’s sort of like this whack-a-mole situation where even though we’re having mortgage rates start to come down, which would help affordability, it would improve affordability, but at the same time, home prices have been going up depending on who you ask, like four or 5% year over year, which is pretty considerable. If you think about 5% on the average home, that’s $420,000, it’s another $20,000 that you’re paying even though mortgage rates go down. So unfortunately, it sounds like affordability, although it’s probably trending in a decent direction, I would imagine, hasn’t really improved all that much.

Rukmini:
It really hasn’t. And I think it’s getting to the point where the federal government may need to step in a more robust way. We’re seeing now that this is the first election in my lifetime when housing has actually become an issue that is being debated in front of millions of viewers on television that speaks to the fact that this is a real stressor. I think for people first time want to be home, buyers are not able to buy. And then on the flip side, you’re seeing people can’t move. And then beyond all that, you’re seeing seniors who are on a fixed income, who are being squeezed by every force from rising taxes to rising insurance. The shelter and the roof of our heads has just become unmanageable, expensive for a lot of the country, put aside the homelessness crisis, but just for I think the average American, it’s become something that is really shrinking people’s wallets.

Dave:
And that extends beyond home ownership too, because home ownership is expensive, but rent is expensive too. Actually, previously this year, the first time I think at least that I’ve seen data that the nation as a whole was unquote rent burdened, which means that more than the average American was spending more than 30%. That’s the line that personal finance experts, economists say, should spend 30% or less if your disposable income on housing. And we were over that. It’s actually since come down, which is a positive sign, but this is obviously happening across the whole country and the spectrum of homeownership to renters. And Rick said, you’ve talked to a lot of people. Does anyone have a solution for this?

Rukmini:
Look, a lot of people seem to be falling down on the same thing, which is of course, rates have to, rates have to come down. That’s one thing. But beyond all that, this is really a supply problem. There’s just not enough housing. Our country has not built enough housing stock going all the way back to 2008. The housing crash, I’m sure you know this very well, Dave, but on that front, you have so many forces that are getting in the way, excessive zoning in so many places where people want to live. I was talking to an affordable I housing project coordinator on a planning commission, and this is in California where there’s been emergency mandates that this has to be built. And there are now such excessive rules about parking at an affordable housing development where, for example, for every studio in this building that has maybe 60 units for every studio, you have to have one spot for every one bedroom.
You have to have 1.5 spots for every two bedrooms, this huge amount of parking, which makes the project that is already so expensive, that much more expensive and makes it very hard to pencil out. But variations of that are happening all over major metro areas where people want to live. It’s difficult, it’s onerous to get new projects built. And so builders, they’re going for what makes sense financially and what makes sense is going for the higher price point, making a bigger house rather than making those small ranches, you imagine from the 1970s, which would be a good starter home for somebody.

Dave:
Yeah, I see solutions coming up, at least ones that seem more credible or are actually getting enacted on a local level or even on a state level. And some of those things can work. I mean, the parking thing is totally true. There’s these crazy ratios that you have to form, and it is total digression here, but there’s all this data that shows that adding parking doesn’t actually increase the availability of parking.

Rukmini:
I see.

Dave:
That’s interesting. Yeah, there’s this thing called in economics called induced demand where it’s kind of like if you build it, they will come. If you build more parking, more people will buy cars. And so it doesn’t actually help. Same thing why a widening a freeway doesn’t work because it just gets more people to drive. So anyway, that’s a whole other topic. It’s time for a break, and afterward we’ll have more of my conversation with Rini Kalama from the New York Times. Welcome back to Bigger News with Rini Kalama. You alluded to before that the federal government might step in, and I was curious, are there proposals, because we’ve heard some things from the presidential campaigns, but I was just curious from less of a political standpoint, when you’re talking to these economists, does anyone have ideas that could work on a national level?

Rukmini:
I mean, I don’t know if these will work or not, but what I’m hearing from economists is that what happens is you have all of these valorous recommendations from reducing zoning around transit to building more, et cetera, and then what happens is that they get clogged down at the level of the q and a session at open mic fight in some little zip code somewhere, and that’s where it gets killed, right?

Dave:
It’s the nimbyism, right? Yeah.

Rukmini:
And it’s been watching some of these public comments for a different story that I’m working on, and it’s so funny how many people stand up at the open mic and begin. I am not against affordable housing. This list of things they’re not against, but they just don’t want another building, another development, anything in their backyard. Nobody wants anything to be built anywhere where they live. And so some of the economists that I’ve been speaking to, including at Freddie Mac, et cetera, are saying that there may need to be a larger mandate where the state and the federal government steps in and goes, you know what? That’s it. This you have to build.
You’re seeing that in California where you have this emergency measure that’s going on, but even there, I was looking at this one affordable project in Southern California, and immediately the neighbors file a lawsuit claiming that it’s going to create more traffic, and then the lawsuit has to work its way through the legal system. By the way, it’s worked its way through the legal system. The price of the two by four has gone up, so the price of the project is no longer accurate. And anyway, it’s this endless loop where it seems that communities are just not able to solve it on their own own. But Dave, I’m actually curious to know what you think are some solutions still myself learning about this.

Dave:
I don’t have any sort of silver bullet, but I do think some of the common things that I’ve heard about are upzoning, which is increasing the density that is allowed for our listeners. A lot of what you hear, especially in big cities all over the country, so much of the physical land in area is zoned for just single family homes. And if you could just zone it for multifamily, people would build on that property. You also see in states, like I know in Washington state, but I think in Michigan and Colorado it’s getting popular, this idea that you could adding ADUs where you can build secondary units, but personally, I think that’s nice. It’s kind of a stop gap. The quantity of homes that need to be built not going to be fixed by a ds, right? So I think those types of things, and personally, this is a pie in the sky idea. So here’s my

Rukmini:
Proposal. I’d love to hear Jason pie in the

Dave:
Sky. Actually, I have two pie in the sky proposals for you. One is having municipalities make it easier to build modular and prefabricated homes. And technology has really improved a lot around prefab homes. They’re nice. It’s not old school kind of trailer looking homes. They could be really, really nice homes, but the permitting process is the same in most places for a prefab home that it is for a custom built home. Whereas why can’t, and I think there are examples of this. I think in Seattle, there’s some examples of this where the city will just say, we’re going to work with the manufacturer and pre-approve everything or deny, but whatever. We’re going to prepec all of these different plans, and then people could just build them. And I know it doesn’t sound like a lot, but permanent costs are very high. Interesting. And even more importantly, when you are planning to build something, if the permits take 3, 6, 9 months, which they can, those are holding costs. You’re paying your mortgage, you’re paying insurance, you’re paying taxes, that’s tens of thousands of dollars that gets added to the price of construction. And so that’s either going to get tacked onto the project or people are going to choose not to develop because it’s too expensive.

Rukmini:
Right. That’s so interesting, Dave. There was a recent study out of the Harvard Joint Center on housing a couple months ago, and I might be misquoting this data point, but if I remember it correctly, they said that 11% of municipalities around the country have only single family zoning. Only. What? Yes. So you’re thinking of the Westchester Counties, these very fancy bedroom communities outside of New York where that is the only type of housing that is allowed. You can’t even build an apartment building with nice condos. And I’m starting to look at the history of zoning to try to understand how we got here. This is just a little bit of homework I’ve done, but I was told that the very first zoning ordinance that was passed was actually in New York City at the turn of the century or so, and it involved a building complaining about the fact that another building was being built in front of it, so therefore blocking the view. Okay. So that’s one type of thing. You then fast forward some years, and then in the middle of the country, you had a big decision that ended up going to the Supreme Court, which involved the separation of areas. So this is an area where people reside, and this is an area where industry is done, factories, et cetera. Well, that seems to make sense, but from there, you have this proliferation of rules where you end up with communities that can only build

Dave:
Single

Rukmini:
Family homes on a one acre plot.

Dave:
On a one acre, you could have dozens of people living in one acre.

Rukmini:
That’s right.

Dave:
You could have hundreds of people living in one acre if you were serious about affordable housing.

Rukmini:
So among the interesting things I’ve been reading about, so on ADUs, I’ll give my community here another bedroom community of Manhattan, an A DU ordinance was passed. Great. So you can build ADUs, but they didn’t change the parking rules. And so for example, in my house, I have a driveway, both my husband and I drive to work. We have two cars and there’s no room for a third car. So I can build an A DU allegedly on my lot. I have a deep lot, but then where’s that person going to park? They’re going to Uber everywhere, right?

Dave:
Yeah.

Rukmini:
I mean, it hasn’t been thought through,

Dave:
Right? Yeah. I think that’s a good example though. We hear that those types of things all the time where the intention is good, but the practicality either for the homeowner or from who I talk to developers, it just becomes impractical. It’s like these rules and the layers of bureaucracy, it just makes it, the risk reward profile for real estate developers is really tough in these types of market. It is so risky, and there’s so many hurdles to go through. A lot of people are just saying it’s not worth it, and I don’t blame.

Rukmini:
Yeah. Another interesting example, I think in Austin where they’re doing something called, they call it a B units. So imagine a house and then something that looks like an in-law or an A DU, but the two houses they basically created zigzag down the middle of the property and they create two deeds. So you’re literally, it’s not just that one is kind of grandfathered into the other is that you have two deeds with two water meters, two addresses, and they’re allowing that kind of subdivision. This is to your point of upzoning, where you’re allowing the actual lot to be cleaved into and creating basically something smaller out of it. This is for Buttonin in so many communities because you’re really creating density there, but they’re allowing it in Austin. And some real estate agents there told me that this seems to be helping in terms of creating a little bit more supply than before.

Dave:
And for everyone listening, a lot of our audience is real estate investors. And just to be candid, real estate investors often benefit from a lack of supply because if you’re an existing investor who owns a lot of property that pushes and there’s a lack of supply and excess demand, it pushes up prices and that can help investors, but at least my personal belief is the best thing for investors and homeowners is to get back to a state where we have a predictable housing market where
Prices go up at three or 4% a year. That’s what it was for most of American history and what investing in real estate was still good then. And that was a period where people could choose housing, they could afford a home if they wanted to, they could afford rent, and it made the whole economy go better. We had more transaction volume. And I think that part is really important for our audience to remember is that we’re sitting right now, even if prices are going up a little bit at half the normal transaction volume, and that hurts the entire industry and it hurts the broader American economy. And so I think that’s why it’s so important to figure out long-term solution to this where we get reliable, affordable housing back into the American housing market.

Rukmini:
Yes, and on the very flip side of this, what’s happening with homelessness is just, it is actually quite shocking. Some months ago, I did a story about working Americans who are living in their cars. I discovered that there are now dozens of parking lots all over the country that have been set aside for what they call the mobile homeless. So basically somebody who’s homeless, but who still has a car. So there’s parking lots that are being set aside, a community college in Santa Clara, California for homeless students. These are students. The dean was telling me that some of these students are straight A students, they just don’t have anywhere to live.

Dave:
It’s terrible.

Rukmini:
Yeah, it’s really kind of shocking, especially to me as somebody who is an immigrant. We came here because America is the dream, and it’s a little bit striking how bad things have gotten, and it’s not happening as badly in other places,

Dave:
Like in other states or in other

Rukmini:
Countries. In other countries. In my native Romania where a doctor in a village can make a salary of $500 a month, it’s a very low income place. You don’t see homelessness.

Dave:
You don’t.

Rukmini:
So what has gone wrong here that we’re ending up with so many people in these real dire straits and then just a notch above and a notch above middle income, middle class people that are so cost burdened as a result of their shelter.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s clearly a real problem, and hopefully we can start working on some long-term solutions here because unfortunately, at least my belief is a lot of the things that are being proposed are like maybe it’ll help in the short run, but it’s basic economics. You just need more supply. That’s the answer. Everyone agrees both sides of the aisle, everyone agrees, more supply, more

Rukmini:
Supply. It’s just nobody wants it facing their house. And so at that point, it becomes for the greater good, and it seems like a greater force needs to step in and make it happen.

Dave:
All right. Time for a quick break. Stick with us. Thanks for staying with us. We’re back with more from Brooke. Meaty. Do you want to hear my last hair brain idea for how to improve supply?

Rukmini:
I’d love to, yes. And I’m still a student of the speed, so I’m actually interested in learning about it.

Dave:
So there’s not a real suggestion in here. It’s just sort of a rant. But I gave this rant on our sister podcast on the market the other day, but here’s the fundamental problem with housing supply is that construction has fundamentally not changed for literally centuries. If you went back in time and looked at someone building a house in the 17 hundreds, there’d be a guy up on a ladder hammering wood with

Rukmini:
Nails

Dave:
Putting on a roof. And it’s the same thing today. I don’t know how you fix it. I don’t know how you have robots or whatever, but someone needs to solve this problem. And I am half joking, but I also think there are examples of this that have worked in the United States. The government passed a bipartisan, yes, it’s possible bill to bring chip manufacturing to the United States because it’s an important national priority. We fund research on construction technology the same way the Trump administration put together operation warp speed, and they were able to accelerate a vaccine. Why can’t we, if this is a national crisis and it seems like everyone agrees to it, how do we invest in technology that’s going to make this better for the future and create an American advantage in our economy? If the American economy can come up with the solution, it’s going to be incredible for the economy, for generations to come. I have no idea how to do this, but that’s my rant about it.

Rukmini:
It’s a good rant. But what I would point out is that I get press releases, and I’ve spoken to various experts who have sent me to the websites and to speak to people who are doing really innovative things. The modular construction that you mentioned, a colleague of mine is just now reporting on 3D printers where entire houses are being made with 3D printers. I think the technology is actually there. The problems, they don’t have anywhere to put it, right? You go back to, you have to have a piece of land to put this down on, and that’s where suddenly the entire system gets fried, program permits, regulations, parking, streaming, neighbors, open mic night, and then nobody wants to get involved, and then another project falls apart.

Dave:
Yes. I also, I love how you call community meetings, open mic night. I’m going to start calling it that. That’s a great way to term it. But I’ve actually, on our other podcasts, I interviewed a 3D printing company, and it’s super cool. The technology’s pretty amazing and it’s still emerging, but even the early signs are pretty incredible. But they were describing the same thing, that to get a 3D printer in an urban infill lot, which for everyone just means if you bought a random plot in the middle of a city, it’s super expensive. What you need is tracked sort of the way big developers, big subdivisions, but those require huge investments. Those are nationally, publicly traded company that can buy 10 acres and sit on it for 15 years. Startups can’t do that. So it’ll be interesting. Maybe these toll brothers, these types of huge companies start buying up these technologies. I don’t know. But they were also saying a lot of the places where they’re permitted to build are places that no one wants to live. So I’m hoping that will change, but there are encouraging things. But yeah, let’s just, I don’t know. Someone needs to spend a lot of time on this, and it feels like within a few years we could really have a better construction industry. But maybe I’m just overly optimistic about this.

Rukmini:
An economist pointed out to me that the most iconic neighborhoods in America think of the village in Manhattan. Think of Chinatown and San Francisco. Just think of the most beautiful places in America in terms of neighborhoods. The French border in New Orleans, they’re all dense. It’s people living on top of each other, and yet in the regulation landscape that we’ve ended up in, it’s very, very hard to build anything like that anywhere in America anymore. So I really do think there’s a regulation arm, a zoning arm of this that has become unhelpful, that has become a source of problems as opposed to a source of solutions.

Dave:
Yeah, that’s definitely true. There needs to be some reduction of bureaucracy and red tape to make this happen.

Rukmini:
You’re seeing it with the lack of the ability to have workers in a lot of, think of all of the resorts in America. I’ve seen stories here and there about in the beach communities near New York, in Florida, the workers can’t live there, and therefore they’re having a hard time staffing the coffee shop, changing the linens. Basically, if you’re not able to have multiple income levels live together, then you end up in a situation where the system can’t run at all.

Dave:
Yeah. It’s not a sustainable economy.

Rukmini:
Yeah.

Dave:
Yeah. I mean, I just noticed, I used to live in Denver and I ski a lot, and you see that in ski towns too. People who work at the resorts and who they are, the heart of that economy. If you don’t have people working at the ski resort, you don’t have that town and they can’t afford to live there.

Rukmini:
If you don’t have this ski instructor in Aspen, it’s no fun to go to Aspen.

Dave:
Right, exactly. So I know that there’s a couple of ski resorts that are building workforce housing, which I think is an interesting idea. I don’t know enough about it, but they’re building units that they rent to their employees at a subsidized pretty cheap rate. So I think it was a test. It was just like 60 units, which is not nothing, but I assume these resorts have hundreds of employees.

Rukmini:
One real estate source told me that in Arizona, in the Sedona area, that the hotel chains, the Hyatts, the Hiltons, those guys that they were getting involved in lobbying for affordable housing because they can’t change the linens in their hotels if their workers can’t live nearby.

Dave:
Yeah. Well, I mean hopefully that continues for whatever their motivations, but when big businesses like that start lobbying, maybe people will start.

Rukmini:
Right.

Dave:
Well, Ricki, thank you so much for joining us today. Is there anything else from your reporting and research that you think our audience should know?

Rukmini:
I think we’ve covered it. Dave, thank you so much for having me on.

Dave:
Well, thank you to Ricki. We’ll put her contact information and links to all of her reporting below, and thank you all so much for listening. We appreciate you, and we’ll see you soon for another episode of the BiggerPockets podcast.

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • Housing inventory update and the “golden handcuffs” keeping housing constrained
  • Why homebuyers are stuck and the magic interest rate that could unlock demand
  • The root of our housing problems and what we must do NOW to fix it
  • Growing homelessness (even among working adults) and why housing costs have gotten too high
  • Modular home building and how this new type of construction could change the housing market forever
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.