Your next referral source is already in your phone

Your next referral source is already in your phone

Real estate is changing fast, and so must you. Inman Connect San Diego is where you turn uncertainty into strategy — with real talk, real tools and the connections that matter. If you’re serious about staying ahead of the game, this is where you need to be. Register now!

When people think of networking, they often picture shaking hands at events, exchanging business cards or connecting with strangers on LinkedIn. That’s important, but here’s a secret many overlook: The most powerful networking happens not with new contacts, but with the ones you already have.

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We all have a vast network: childhood friends, neighbors, former classmates, teammates, fellow members of a faith community, hobby partners, colleagues from past jobs and so on. The list is long. Yet we rarely tap into these existing relationships in a meaningful way.

If you want to level up your networking game, start by reconnecting with the people you already know.

Make reaching out a daily habit

You don’t need to call 20 people a day. Just three to five consistent, quality connections each day will have a massive long-term impact. The key is making it a habit — and making it personal.

Prioritize calls and visits over texts

Sure, it’s easy to fire off a quick text or email, but if you want to create real impact, go old school: Pick up the phone, or stop by in person. That human touch is far more memorable and meaningful.

And when you visit or call, be intentional. Avoid saying, “I had a few minutes and figured I would reach out” or “I happened to be in the neighborhood.” That often implies they were an afterthought. Instead, say:

“I made a special trip to connect because I was thinking of you.”

That subtle shift makes a big difference; it shows respect and genuine interest.

Be genuinely interested

These conversations should never feel like a pitch. They should feel like catching up with someone you care about. Ask about their life, listen actively, and be truly present.

Chances are, at some point, they’ll ask what’s new with you. That’s your opportunity to naturally mention your real estate work, not as a sales pitch but simply as part of what’s going on in your world.

Offer to help sincerely

One of my favorite lines when wrapping up a call or visit is:

“I am always available for you. Even though we are not constantly in touch, I frequently think of you — and anytime I can be helpful, just let me know.”

It’s heartfelt and honest — and it often prompts a similar response in return. That’s when you can comfortably say:

“If you ever hear of someone looking to buy or sell a home, I’d be honored if you’d think of me.”

No pressure. No hard sell. Just a natural exchange between two people who trust and appreciate each other.

Build a simple, repeatable system

You likely have well over a thousand contacts — and even if you’re just starting out, you certainly have hundreds. That’s a goldmine of opportunity sitting right in your phone.

Let’s break it down. If you commit to calling just three people a day, five days a week, and take a full month off for vacation, that’s 720 conversations a year. And if you reach out to five people a day to ensure you actually connect with three, you’ll touch over 1,200 contacts annually.

Personally, I make these calls while driving in the morning or winding down at the end of the day. The conversations are typically short — just a few minutes each — and I can easily knock them out in 20 minutes or less.

If I call and get voicemail, I immediately follow up with a quick voice-to-text message:

“Hi, it’s Ken. I just tried to call to catch up — it’s been too long. Please give me a call when you’re free. Looking forward to reconnecting!”

Here’s the key: I don’t stop until I’ve had at least three actual conversations. Not just calls made — conversations had. That discipline is what makes this system work.

Over time, this simple routine has allowed me to stay connected with more than a thousand people each year. It keeps relationships fresh, opens doors to new opportunities, and, best of all, it’s enjoyable.

Use your CRM to stay consistent

To stay on track, I use BoldTrail, which reminds me to reach out to each contact every 11 months. Why 11? Because it rotates the month of contact each year — December this year, November next, October the year after — which keeps your outreach feeling spontaneous and fresh.

And always take notes in your CRM. If someone tells you about a vacation, a child’s graduation or a job change, add that to the contact record. Then, when you reconnect next time, you can follow up with something like:

“Last time we spoke, you mentioned your daughter was applying to college. How did that go?”

That shows you were listening — and that you care.

If the conversation leads to speaking sooner the next time, add the next call in your CRM. It is so simple, yet done by so few.

The payoff

Make the calls. Ring the doorbells. Spark real conversations. You’ll reignite old friendships, strengthen meaningful relationships, and yes, you’ll generate referrals. People want to do business with those they know, like and trust. And trust is built not through mass emails, but through real conversations.

The best networking doesn’t come from collecting more business cards. It comes from genuinely valuing and nurturing the relationships you already have. So open your phone. Scroll through your contacts. Make the call. You’ll be amazed at what happens next.

Ken Baris is CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Jordan Baris Realty. Connect with him on Instagram and LinkedIn.

3 Things That Will Kill Your Rental Property Cash Flow (Rookie Reply)

Floods, evictions, and bad property managers on ONE rental property?! These are the kinds of things that spook rookies out of real estate investing altogether. Fortunately, many of these issues are avoidable, and today, we’ll equip you with some property-saving advice that could help you prevent a major blunder!

Welcome back to another Rookie Reply! While scouring the BiggerPockets Forums this week, we stumbled on a full-blown horror story that involves several problems with the same property. Tony and guest co-host Noah Bacon have encountered similar issues throughout their investing journeys, and in this episode, they’re going to break them down and show you how to handle them. You’ll learn why you should think twice before passing up on a sewer scope, how to adjust your tenant screening process and avoid evictions, and how to effectively manage your property managers!

Looking to invest? Need answers? Ask your question on the BiggerPockets Forums!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Tony:
Alright guys, let’s get your questions answered. Welcome to the Real Estate Rookie podcast where every week, three times a week, we bring you the inspiration, motivation, and stories you need to hear to kickstart your investing journey. Now, today’s rookie reply is going to be just a little bit different for a few reasons. Instead of answering your questions, we’re actually going to be featuring one forum users of the BiggerPockets form. We’re going to take one story bit of a horror story and use it as a jumping off point about what to do and what to look out for so you never end up in that person’s shoes. Now the second reason today is that Ashley, my co-host is Ashley Traveling. So I’ll be joined by Noah Bacon and you might recognize him from being on the Ricky Podcast before and from his YouTube series How I Got started, which aired on the BiggerPockets Real Estate Rookie YouTube channel. So Noah, thanks for joining us today, brother.

Noah:
Thank you so much for having me today, Tony. It’s a real, real honor to be here with you.

Tony:
Yeah, dude. Excited to jump in with you, man. So today we’re going to discuss the importance of sewer scopes during your inspections, why you need to stick to your strict application requirements and how to move on from your bad property manager. So I guess first let me maybe share a brief overview of this story that we found inside the form. So this form story was posted by someone named Rantz and here’s what Rantz wrote. It says in February of 2022, we purchased a newly renovated three unit building in the South Austin neighborhood of Chicago. The price was $500,000 and we used a debt service coverage ratio or DSCR loan for the purchase. We quickly found tenants and we were off to a great start. So it seems like everything’s going well so far within a week our ground tenant let us know that the sewage was backing into his unit.
Since this was a safety hazard, he had to move out and decided to find another place to live in. We refunded his rent and his deposit. So things are getting off to a rocky start here, right first weekend they lose their tenant. Flushable wipes and tree roots that had spread into our yard were seeming to be the root of the issue here. Luckily, we were able to fix the problem, but in total this all costs us about $15,000 after cleanup and remediation. The unit then flooded again after the nearby river flooded and cost us another $15,000 in cleanup. So not the best way to jump into your first investment is to lose another $30,000 in repairs and maintenance. Now I know you’ve got a similar story where you were looking at buying a property and identified some issues with the sewer. I guess how could Ransom maybe have avoided this issue altogether?

Noah:
Yeah, this is definitely a tough one and Ran is going to have some thick skin, some calluses early on in his investing career, that’s for sure. But yeah, like you said, Tony, I had a pretty similar story to this when I was actually under contract for a property. It was out in Colorado in the older part of Colorado Springs and there was a really, really shady sewer scope inspection that I had. And I think that part of the reason that ran is potentially in this situation is a lot of first time home buyers, a lot of first time investors, they waived that sewer scope inspection. And I found on mine very quickly that there was going to be a lot of damage down the road if I decided to close on this property. What I found was there was a sewage line that went 180 feet to the city tap and doing that sewer scope, there were offsets, there were roots, there was a lot of problems when you went through it and ultimately sent it over to the seller and there was going to be roughly about $30,000 worth of repairs, pretty similar numbers to what Ran was seeing here for cleanups down the road and seller basically told me to screw off.
I walked away and the contract was ripped up and I’m very, very thankful that we decided to walk away from this property because I certainly would’ve not been able to burden a $30,000 bill just right off the bat on my first property. So yeah, it was definitely a tough one, but I highly recommend sewer scopes.

Tony:
Yeah. Noah, let me ask, so how did you know to do a sewer scope? Is it just something that your realtor recommended or who pointed you in the direction to say this is something we need to check out?

Noah:
Yeah, so great question Tony. It was definitely my realtor. So I had an investor friendly realtor, this was before BiggerPockets had agent finders. So I actually went on the forums typed in, Hey, I’m Noah looking for my first property moving across the country and met with an investor agent. So he had a really great home inspector who obviously had the home inspection package and then offered a sewer scope edition onto it with a different company that he partnered with. So had I not had him on my corner, I definitely would’ve avoided that and been in a really, really big mistake my first time out.

Tony:
No, I know something that a lot of folks they get caught up on is the additional cost that comes along with doing some of these inspections because those are sunk costs, right? Once you spend the money on an inspection, whether you close or whether you don’t, that money is spent. So just so people understand, what did your sewer scope cost you? Ballpark?

Noah:
Yeah, great question. So I’ll start with first off, the home inspection package was about $500 without sewer scope. So I think that’s why you say Tony, a lot of people already have that fear of this is going to be a lot of money out of pocket and it’s Notre refundable if you walk away, the sewer scope was an additional 180 onto it. I actually looked back right before our recording here, so all in around $700 to potentially walk away from a $30,000 mistake. It definitely left me with an empty feeling not having the property. Of course I’m out close to $800 here, but it’s much better than being down the road and potentially going into foreclosure just immediately off the bat. So I’ll take that 180 to $200 spend to have a safety net and sleep at night to have my properties

Tony:
100% man. And I think about it like car insurance, we never get to December 31st and we look at the year, we’re like, I didn’t have any accidents this year. What a waste that I had car insurance. It’s like that’s the money you invest for that peace of mind. And I think the inspections to due diligence, it serves that same purpose of giving you that peace of mind. We had a similar, not quite as bad as this, but we had kind of a similar issue with one of the properties that we bought that was on a septic system and it was our first time buying on septic and we did not do a septic inspection and shortly after purchasing it, we get a call and this is a short-term rental, which is potentially even worse. You’ve got so many people come in and out, but we had a guest who called us and they were like, Hey, there’s some brown water coming up from the shower, we don’t know what’s going on.
And lo and behold, we had some issues with the septic and that was a lesson for us. At any time we buy a property with the septic again a few hundred bucks to get the septic inspection done and that really gives you the peace of mind to say, hey, we can move forward with this purchase. So that was my introduction though, really into the world of sewage and septic inspections and luckily it didn’t cost us all that much, we just had to pump the septic tank and I don’t know, it’s like a thousand bucks maybe something like that to get a rectified, but obviously $30,000 is a much, much bigger issue. So big lesson learned for ran here. No, and luckily I think you and I both avoided maybe the worst of those potential issues, but Ran is hopefully like a tail of caution for folks to spend the extra $200 to get the sewage inspection or for ITEP to get that done as well.
Alright guys, we’ve got to take a quick add break, but in the next part of Rent to Story, we’re going to discuss how to know when it’s time to move on from your property manager. Now while you’re away, if you need a good property management company to help you with your real estate portfolio, head over to biggerpockets.com/property management to find a trusted property manager in your area. Alright guys, so welcome back. Getting back into Rana’s story. Now as you heard before the break, there were some challenges around the septic got that fixed $30,000 later, but the story continues. So let me continue Rana’s story so you guys can hear what happens next. So Ran says, after fixing all the sewage issues, $30,000 later we were finally able to get a good tenant in that ground unit and he’s been there for just under one year now.
As soon as he moved in, our tenants in both upstairs units stopped paying their rent. So we decided to move forward with evicting one tenant at a time. After about five months of court, it took the city eight weeks to actually evict. Once the judge gave the order, they destroyed, the unit, trashed it and the turn cost almost $4,000, not to mention the court fees, attorney’s fees and lost rents. Man, I am feeling for rents right now, you $30,000 on the first unit and then as soon as you get that fixed, you got two other tenants to stop paying. Now let me ask, have you ever had to evict a tenant before?

Noah:
I have, and it was actually this year and the only reason I’m laughing is I feel the pain through this story right now ran and I can definitely feel that there’s a really big expense when it comes to these things and it’s sometimes avoidable and sometimes not. And it’s unfortunate that we’re in this business at times.

Tony:
Yeah, it is an unfortunate part and if you landlord long enough, what’s the saying? It’s not a matter of if you’ll evict someone, but because we focus mostly on short term, we haven’t had to evict anyone. It’s not something that necessarily happens in this side of the space. But no, I guess let me ask you because I think the best way to avoid an eviction is by getting a better tenant upfront. So for your eviction that you went through, was this a tenant that you inherited or was it someone that you had actually screened and brought into the unit yourself?

Noah:
This was somebody that I actually placed myself, so it was definitely hard to look in the mirror and say that I’m the one that was the root cause of this. Not to say the unfortunate events that led to the eviction, it’s not like personal finances were in my control, but I look back and there’s five to 10 to probably 20 things that I could have done better on my screening and it led right back to me.

Tony:
Yeah, so let me ask then, Noah, what do you feel you missed? What were maybe some of those red flags you overlooked during the tenant screening process that maybe if you would’ve caught those things maybe act a little bit differently, you could have avoided that eviction?

Noah:
Yeah, so my tenants had actually moved in with a pretty new job and I was okay with taking a future employment letter and it was a couple of phone calls with the employer, had a couple phone calls with the previous landlords and to me it checked off all the boxes, but the unfortunate part of accepting a future employment letter was that they didn’t actually show up to their job then. So they were hired and then within three months stopped paying rent. Essentially my first couple months you could see the writing was on the wall that yeah, we’re going to be late this week, or excuse me, we’re going to be late this month by a week, we’re going to be late by two weeks and now we’re late by an entire month. So it really came back to me not doing my due diligence on the employment side of things.

Tony:
Yeah, I guess I’ve never thought about that being a potential challenge because you think like, hey, job letters in hand, most people are probably going to show up when they get offered a job, but maybe something to say, Hey, we got to wait until you actually get that first paycheck or something to that effect. No, I guess just generally speaking, are there any other maybe potential red flags that you as a landlord now look out for?

Noah:
Yeah, absolutely. When I was obviously self-managing this property, I was the one who was doing the tenant screening. I was the one who was showing up to do the showings as well, and I had a couple of applicants including the one that I actually placed that offered me three months of rent, four months of rent upfront. And to me that was a massive red flag. The fortunate part for me was that they checked off every other box they had the employment history, they had the future employment lined up, they had great landlord references. It was a normal family it seemed like to me on paper and then meeting them in person and just unfortunately we went down the road of eviction almost immediately at the immediately off the bat. So I would say that somebody offering you a lot of money upfront or trying to give you any kind of sob story to move in is an immediate red flag to me. And then obviously any landlord reference has any kind of remarks that give you any hair, stand up on your arms with a yellow flag or red flag. I would trust those landlord references probably more than anything else that has to do with the application process because they just had these tenants and now they’re giving ’em to you. If it was a terrible tenancy, they’re likely going to let you know unless they’re not the right landlord reference.

Tony:
No, I totally understand, Noah, the sob story of like, Hey, here’s what’s going on in my life, here’s why I need to get this unit. But maybe give the Ricky’s a little bit more insight why someone who’s willing to pay for maybe multiple months upfront may not be a good tenant. I feel it might be somewhat counterintuitive because as a landlord you’re getting four months of rent all at once, so there’s guaranteed rent at least for that timeframe. Why in your mind, might that be a potential red or yellow flag?

Noah:
Well, I think the answer is actually in the question they give you the four months of rent, that’s potentially all the money that they’re going to give you in their tenancy. I mean I’m a long-term investor, so these are 12 month leases. What’s the other eight months look like? Because this contract is for an entire year, but you’re basically only promising four months upfront and that’s maybe not even including the security deposit. So in reality that could be only three months of rent and deposit and if they’re not a great applicant you might be charging double security deposit. So that’s actually what I did moving forward. Next is if anybody came in lower than what was required on my even more strict application. Now moving forward since I essentially burnt myself was that I require a one and a half or a two times security deposit just to give myself a little bit more of that safety net. So I would absolutely run away from anybody that says I’m going to give you more than one month’s rent upfront unless you require that as a landlord on your application.

Tony:
Guys, one thing I will say is always check your local landlord and tenant laws because it will vary from state to state, from municipality to municipality. I know there are some states, I think New York, there’s a cap on what your security deposit can be. Ashley talked about that quite a bit as well. So just check those things now. No, I want to get into the actual eviction process and what that looked like for you. But before I do, I guess just one follow-up question. A common way to avoid going through the eviction process is cash for keys is just telling your tenant, I’m going to give you x dollar amount, I want you out by this date. Did you offer that to your tenants and were they responsive or did you just go straight for the eviction?

Noah:
I did and one of the pieces that I did with that was still post the 10 day demand on their door because I wanted to show that I was serious that I had a deadline. It’s not just, Hey, I’m going to offer you this to get out, it’s that if you don’t take this offer, option B is going to be the unfortunate road that we’re obviously going to talk about here. And what it went to was eviction. So I did offer that they didn’t want that. Of course it wasn’t enough to get them out to move into the next home or next apartment or wherever they went after that. And then posting that 10 day demand was me being as serious as I possibly be that we’re going to go down this route if you don’t accept offer a,

Tony:
Yeah, and obviously every tenant’s going to be slightly different, but if we look at ransom story here, it was thousand dollars just for the unit just to get the unit ready and then he still had the court fees, attorney fees, and the lost rent. So I don’t know, maybe let’s tack on another 2000 bucks maybe just to be conservative. So 6,000 bucks rents lost. So in theory he could have offered anything $6,000 or less and still came out on top. So even if he wants that tenant said, Hey, here’s five grand to get you out, but I want the place spic and span spotless when you leave, he’s out five grand, but he’s got a unit that’s still in good condition, doesn’t have to worry about the lost time of the eviction and all that stuff, and he can hopefully re-rent that unit faster. So guys, I totally understand as a landlord, this is your pride and joy. You put a lot of blood, sweat and soul and work into getting this listing up and running and just the kind of ego of it maybe wants you to never give someone just cash to walk out of your listing. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, sometimes it does make sense. So Noah, let’s actually walk through the eviction process. So your first eviction, what did that look like? What was your very first step?

Noah:
Yeah, so first step, like we kind of just said option A was let’s see if cash for keys is an option. Obviously it wasn’t same day simultaneously 10 day demand probably should have set the boundary or set the scene here a little bit better. But it was in the state of Colorado. So I know ran to stories in Chicago, so the duration is actually a little bit similar to what I felt, but I know that every state is going to have way different eviction laws. So take that with a grain of salt of course if you’re not in Colorado right now. But I started off with the 10 day demand essentially that took, well obviously it went up to 10 days and then now I send it over to my attorney. So once it gets sent over to the attorney, the attorney contacts the tenant basically says, Hey, do you have X amount of money to pay your 10 day demand or are we going to go to court?
And they didn’t have the money that was on the demand, which was about two months of rent at this point. So I’m pretty close to rent’s number here at about $4,000 with a $2,000 rental rate on this property. A couple weeks go by now, I want to say it was about 18 days until it was sent over to the eviction court then so we go to eviction then this was about one month now since the 10 day demand. And right after we go through eviction, it took about another two weeks to get the sheriff to come out then and then actually remove the tenants. So all in all, it took, I want to say about 15 to 16 weeks. It was a much longer process than I would’ve ever anticipated and definitely the number that I was offering for cash for keys was certainly lower than the number that I ended up paying out of pocket after this entire process. And again, rant, I’m laughing with you because I feel this pain just as much as you my friend.

Tony:
No, just ballpark. What were those two numbers? What did you offer cash for keys and what was your actual end cost after you went through the entire eviction process?

Noah:
Yeah, my offer for cash for keys was $4,000. I was only looking at it at two months of rent and I was like, okay, if you can get out in the next 60 days, I can rerent this place and I’m going to basically make my nut and get back to where I want to be. All in all, I will talk to my accountant in April, but I want to say it was just north of 9,000. I know it was just under 10,000. So somewhere in that ballpark and it was certainly not a fun process. Found out that the tenant actually moved in pets that weren’t supposed to be there too. So the turnover was a lot more expensive than I was ever imagining. The court fees were pretty much what I was anticipating. And then the lost rent was, it just drags on further and further than you can ever imagine. So take it from me to be as strict as you possibly can up front.

Tony:
Yeah, so you could have offered seven grand and say, Hey, I want you out by next Friday. And maybe that would’ve been the motivation to actually get them out. But again, we learned these lessons together, man. So I 16 weeks, that’s a long time. That’s a long time for an eviction man.

Noah:
I hate to say that it was at this time of the year, but the eviction started right at Christmas time. So it took everything a lot more. Everything went a lot slower than I think everybody was imagining at that point.

Tony:
Let me ask one follow-up question I guess for you now having gone through this process, do you now at all set money aside when you’re closing on a property for the possibility of an eviction or are you just calculating that in with your CapEx, with your vacancy, with your repairs and maintenance costs?

Noah:
Yeah, I will say that before I did so I would always save three months of reserves and that was basically just the mortgage payment. Now I look at it a little bit differently. Like you said, I break apart my CapEx from my vacancy rate, from my potential, my losses. So I also factor in maintenance and eviction into another bucket now. And now I’m closer to saving about six months of reserves in my CapEx. So again, for just numbers on this property, like I said, it was about $2,000 of rent. I’m keeping over $10,000 in a safety net account now instead of just living by the skin of my teeth at the 6,000 because that well ran dry a lot faster than I thought it would

Tony:
Guys. So no, appreciate all the insight there man, and kind of sharing your lessons learned on the eviction process. Now the next part of Ransom story, because believe it or not, there’s a little bit more here. We’re going to discuss how to know when it’s time to move on from your property manager. So we’ll be right back with Ransom story after a quick word from today’s show sponsors. Alright guys, we’re back and we’re going to finish off with the final part of Ransom’s story and unfortunately the news doesn’t get much better. So we first we have the sewage issue, then we have the tenant evictions, now we’ve got another one and the bad luck is kind of coming to a close, but now it’s talking about finding the right property manager. So here’s the final part of Ransom story. Ran says our management company at the time was trying to find new occupants for months and it was not looking good.
One day the manager called my wife very excited about an application they just reviewed as my wife and I were reviewing it. We saw a few things in the application and the credit report that looked funny after what we had just been through. We were very, very cautious. After about 10 minutes of digging, we found out that same applicant was applying with fraudulent information, the same fraudulent information our previous tenant used. Needless to say, we were more than frustrated with our management company for not catching this. We found a new management company that has helped us flip both units, give our current tenants some more structure, and is now fan of two additional tenants, one of which is our first CHA tenant. And just to clarify, CHA stands for Chicago Housing Authority. We are very excited to finally have a fully occupied property after about one and a half years of issues and huge sums of money going towards them, man. So super frustrating as the landlord here to have a property manager that maybe isn’t paying close enough attention to some of these details. I think it is something you see, especially as some of these PMs start to get bigger, that the attention per client or the attention per unit starts to go down a little bit and sometimes you overlook these things, but I guess now let me ask for your portfolio, do you have a pm? What does that look like for you personally?

Noah:
Currently now I have a full-time property manager. Previously I was self-managing my properties but moved across the country and I did not like the option of trying to self-manage from really far away.

Tony:
How many property managers have you gone through? Have you chosen one and been able to stick with that 1:00 PM or have you had to maybe cycle through a couple there?

Noah:
I’ve had the same property manager and I’ve actually, I haven’t had to fire them, but I’ve had tough conversations that required a pretty decent explanation that either led to either a discount on something because I was very frustrated with the timeline of things and I can get into that, but I haven’t had to fire a property manager. What about you, Tony? Have you had to fire anything on your short-term rental side of things?

Tony:
No, we do all of our management, so we haven’t had to fire anyone on that side. And when we were investing in long-term rentals, we only had 1:00 PM that we were using. But part of the reason why we were somewhat, I think fed up with the traditional long-term rental space was because it’s like our PM, and this was maybe unique to our situation, but I feel like you see it a lot across the country. But our RPM, they had their property management company, but then they also had a repair and maintenance slash construction company. And whenever a maintenance request came in on one of the units, their only option was, Hey, here’s our quote, or if you want a quote from someone else, you’ve got to find it yourself. So naturally I was busy working a W2 job, obviously fine, you guys should take care of it, but when you look out over the course of a year, they were making more money on the repairs and maintenance from us than they were from the actual management.
So it’s like we’re talking a few hundred bucks of cash flow on some of these long-term rentals and it starts to get eaten up by all these little kind of small, maybe somewhat overpriced repairs they’re doing on the property. And that’s where you start to get a little bit of the frustration. So we didn’t necessarily fire them for that reason, we just kind of left the long-term rental space altogether. But that was my experience with the PM side, I guess. No, you said there’s been some tough conversations. What was the genesis of that? What kind of led to those tough conversations?

Noah:
Yeah, so it was pretty similar it sounds like to what you kind of went through here where you were having those repair fees come up and you’re like, why are the maintenance hours this high on some of these? I actually just moved out of a property here in May and came out and thinking it was going to be pretty turnkey. I actually had the property manager walk the property with me and anticipate there was only going to be a couple hours of repairs. It turned out it came out to over 40 hours worth of repairs. So I immediately hop on the phone and I’m like, Hey guys, I need a really good explanation of what’s going on here on my owner portal. Nothing was being communicated all that well. So I was getting really nervous right out the gate. I already had one property being managed with them that had been going really smoothly, absolutely nothing, no repairs from the tenants, no problem getting it leased right away.
And I was really upset because I moved out of this place anticipating it’s only going to take about three weeks to turn this property and get a tenant in there. And it took about two months, so it was just starting to burn money. And with the repairs coming up, I started to question how much are we doing here? On one of the remarks it said we came, we didn’t have the supplies and we went back to Home Depot. So I said, why am I on the hook for this one? So they ultimately waived a leasing fee, they deducted some of the hours that were on the billing, but without that I likely would’ve started to look for a different property manager. But I do have, like I said, a pretty good relationship with my other property. This was hopefully only a one-off occurrence and it does give me a little bit of concern, but ultimately right now everything has gone smooth since that. And I can honestly say I’m happy right now, but definitely had a couple sleepless nights with what I was seeing on our timeline here.

Tony:
I think the challenge is, and this is maybe especially for the rookies, is that when you hire a property manager, you assume that they don’t need a lot of oversight, but that is not true. Property managers need oversight from you as the owner of the property and that’s called the asset management, right, where you’re managing the asset even though the PM zoom and the day-to-day stuff and reviewing things like why did it take you two hours to swap an air filter? You want to drill down on those things to get that insight and force them to be accountable to doing right by you as the owner. Let me ask you, what would cause you to potentially move on from the PM that you currently have?

Noah:
I would say lack of communication would be something that would make me walk away. Throughout this whole process though, I was extremely frustrated. I was being communicated to very, very fastly and I actually was able to talk to the owner of the company to really escalate my concerns and had a lot of really great conversations with him who wasn’t fully involved in the situation, but helped me remediate and resolve the issue. So I would say if there was no communication from upper level management or supervisor to say, Hey, I’m noticing something going on here, are other owners in your portfolio feeling this too? And ultimately that was what it came down to, which it did give me concern. But like I said, we’re at a point here today where things have gotten a lot better. Communication has been at an all time high. And like I said, if they didn’t talk to me throughout this process and I’m getting billed for all this and then hey, we have a tenant the next day, Noah, just to essentially shut me up, that would’ve left a really sour taste in my mouth and I would’ve definitely sought another property manager right at the gate.

Tony:
And I think going back to Rana’s story here, I think the lack of attention to detail is a big one. Also. It’s like, guys, you saw what we just went through of having to evict not one but two tenants and you’re trying to set me up and for the exact same thing to happen all over again. That would be a rather pretty big red flag for me as well, right, is like, guys, we got to do better here. We got to do better here. So no, you’ve gone through some ups and downs in your investing journey as well. We’ve seen the same thing in our portfolio as well. I guess just maybe what is your perspective or maybe advice for Ricky’s that are getting into this who hear ran a story and think, see I told you guys real estate investing isn’t as great as everyone makes it out to be. What’s your advice to folks who might be here or might be thinking that here in ran a story?

Noah:
I think as aggressive and as leveraging, you want to get right out the gate, be as safe as possible when it comes to your reserves. And I think Ran and I are great examples of, we have calluses from our first couple of properties, our first couple of years in investing, and I wouldn’t expect any rookie owner that is relying on a full-time property manager to go and dive into applications that they’re supposed to be screening. It took rants to get burnt a lot of money to go back and say, Hey, this is an application that you guys have already done. I don’t go and look at the applications that my property managers have screened because I haven’t had problems with tenant placing since I’ve had a full-time property manager. But I go and I look really deeply into my repairs now because I’ve gotten burnt once or twice on repairs being too high or repairs them not being prepared for them and things like that.
So I would say always have a reserve probably twice as much as you’re anticipating right at the gate. I know a lot of people like to say two or three times your mortgage. I was that way where I only had three times my mortgage in a savings account that I wasn’t really accumulating any money to say it’s going to be six times in a couple months. Have that reserve. I would even go as aggressive as one year. If you really are concerned about getting into the game and if you’re not concerned about getting into the game, let rants, let Tony, let my story be just a guiding light that you’re going to need money outside of your tenant’s rent coming in.

Tony:
Yeah, no, you framed that up perfectly and think a little more cash in the bank can oftentimes let you sleep a little bit easier at night. But I think the other piece to that’s important to understand here, guys, and this is for all of the rookies that are listening, there is always going to be some level of risk in investing in real estate. Just point blank period. But the reason that we’re able to get a reward is because we’re willing to accept some level of risk. So the goal that you start to invest is how do you maximize your upside while also minimizing your downside? And I think the purpose of today’s episode was to give you some tactical things you can focus on to help reduce that downside. So screening your tenants a little bit more effectively, keeping a really close watch over the work that your property manager is doing, not skimping out on your due diligence period and really doing all the inspections. It sounds simple, but those are the things you can put in place to help reduce the risk of actually owning this asset. Now, any final words on your side, brother?

Noah:
One thing I would say is if your home inspector recommends you additional packages onto their home inspection, don’t think that they’re the next average Joe salesman. These are going to save you money in the long term, I guarantee it. So absolutely do your due diligence upfront.

Tony:
Awesome. Well, no, thank you so much for joining us today, brother Ricky’s. If you guys want to get involved in the community and the same place that Ran went to share his story and get support and get advice, head over to biggerpockets.com/forums. Okay, that’s biggerpockets.com/forums. Look, we hope you guys got some value out of hearing the story today. And if you’re enjoying the Real Estate Ricky Podcast, whatever podcast player you’re listening on, make sure to subscribe and follow. If you’re on YouTube, do the same thing there, share it with a friend. But we appreciate you guys and we’ll see you on the next episode of Real Estate Ricky.

Watch the Episode Here

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • Why home inspection packages aren’t just another sales scam to ignore
  • Why doing your due diligence upfront could stop you from buying a “problem” property
  • How to save thousands in eviction costs with a “cash for keys” offer
  • Why you need to create strict tenant screening requirements (and stick to them!)
  • The number one attribute to look for in a property management company
  • How much money a new investor should be keeping in reserves
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Fathom shares bounce back on prospects for agent growth

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Shares of Fathom Real Estate’s parent company have more than doubled in value in less than three months as the company continues to add agents and pursue plans to expand operations to all 50 states and Canada.

Shares in Fathom Holdings Inc., which were changing hands for as little as $1.33 on June 21, have gained 125 percent since then, closing at $2.99 Friday.

In reporting a $1.3 million second quarter loss on Aug. 12, Fathom said it grew its agent count by 12 percent from a year ago, to 12,224. Although elevated mortgage rates and home prices were a drag on transaction volume, Fathom introduced new agent commission plans aimed at boosting profits while aiding agent recruitment and retention.

Fathom shares up 125% from June

Source: Yahoo Finance.

Shares in Fathom gained 13 percent last week alone after CEO Marco Fregenal detailed the company’s long-term growth strategy and held one-to-one meetings with investors Wednesday at the Gateway Conference in San Francisco.

At the conference, Fregenal said he’s confident that Fathom Realty’s flat-fee model will help it continue to attract agents, and that he expects U.S. residential real estate transactions to grow from roughly 4.2 million this year to 5.5 million in 2025.

While many real estate brokerages are bracing for new commission rules to dent their revenue, Fregenal doesn’t think commissions paid to buyer’s agents will come down much in the long run.

Any declines are likely to be short-lived, because “it’s now no longer a transparent system. In a sense, if you’re selling your house, you no longer know what other people are offering, right? So I think the lack of transparency eventually may drive prices.”

Fathom raised its agent transaction fees by 10 percent in 2023, to $550 for the first 15 completed transactions. After the first 15 transactions, agents were paying $150, up from $99 before the increase. Fathom raised agent fees again this year, boosting the annual agent fee by $100, to $700, and adding a new high-value property fee on sales of properties valued at more than $600,000.

In August, Fathom announced two new agent commission plans aimed at boosting profits while aiding agent recruitment and retention. The new plans give agents the option of choosing a flat-fee or commission-split model.

One plan, Fathom Max, offers a “highly competitive” transaction fee of $465 with a $9,000 annual cap, the company said. The other plan, Fathom Share, features what the company claims is an industry-low 12 percent commission split with a $12,000 annual cap, “providing twice the revenue share opportunity over the Max plan.”

“We believe that if commissions go down, our value [to agents] becomes even greater, right?” Fregenal said. “Because agents will pay less money to join our company. So if that happens, we’ll benefit from that. And if it doesn’t happen, that’s perfectly fine as well.”

Fregenal said two things separate Fathom from many of its competitors in real estate brokerage.

To further its goal of building an end-to-end real estate services platform integrating residential brokerage, mortgage, title and insurance, in 2021 Fathom acquired E4:9 Holdings and subsidiaries Encompass Lending Group, Real Results and Dagley Insurance for $28.88 million.

Although Fathom announced in May that it was selling Dagley Insurance back to its founder, Fregenal said the higher profit margins in the company’s mortgage and title insurance operations will continue to provide a boost to its bottom line.

“We just brought in John Gwin to run our mortgage and title businesses,” Fregenal said of the 20-year industry veteran who was named as Fathom’s chief operating officer in May. Gwin has 20 years of experience in legal, compliance, and sales in the mortgage, real estate, securities and insurance industries.

“It’s an incredibly profitable business for us, and so it will continue to make a significant impact,” Fregenal said of mortgage and title.

Second, Fregenal said, Fathom’s efforts to build its entire technology platform in-house give it an advantage over competitors who rely on third-party providers.

“The best way to describe it is it will be an ERP system for a brokerage,” Fregenal said of enterprise resource planning software many businesses use to manage all aspects of their day-to-day operations. “It runs and it manages the entire life cycle, all the way from an agent joining the company to closing a transaction and integration with title and mortgage. So one of the great benefits of that is it allows us to compete at a much lower cost.”

Fathom’s expansion plans

Source: Fathom Holdings investor presentation, Sept. 4, 2024. 

Fregenal said the company’s real estate brokerage, Fathom Realty, plans to be operating in all 50 states by mid-2025.

“Probably the biggest states that we’re not in are New York and Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania actually is open already,” he said. “New York will probably be open within the next 60 days. And then after that, we’ll cover the rest of the country. We’ll probably expand into Canada sometime next year as well.”

It’s a similar story for Fathom’s mortgage business, Encompass Lending Group, which Fregenal said “will cover the whole country, with probably the exception of New York,” by the end of next year.

“If you’re from New York, I apologize, but mortgage in New York is a nightmare” from a regulatory standpoint, Fregenal said.

Fathom’s title insurance business, Verus Title, is also jumping through regulatory hurdles in “three or four states, but must likely we’ll cover 45 or 46 states” next year.

After going public in 2020, Fathom acquired North Carolina-based Verus Title for $1.7 million, — $700,000 in cash, and $1 million in Fathom stock, the company later disclosed.

In April, Fathom launched a new joint venture, Verus Title Elite Texas LLC, with individual teams and top-producing Fathom agents throughout Texas. Fathom said it plans to have joint ventures in most of the states where its Verus Title subsidiary operates by the end of next year.

Two months later, Verus Title announced it had boosted its coverage area in three states with Fathom’s acquisition of Utah-based LW Traveling Title.

Annual meeting

At the company’s annual meeting on Aug. 19, Fathom Holdings shareholders approved a proposal to increase the number of shares reserved for employee stock incentives by 1.6 million shares, boosting the number of shares set aside for incentives by 28 percent, 7.36 million.

Founder Josh Harley, who stepped down in November as CEO and a board member, remains the largest individual shareholder in the company, Fathom said in providing advance notice of the annual meeting. As of June 21, Harley owned 4.5 million shares, constituting 21.5 percent of outstanding common stock.

Harley’s father-in-law and former board member Glenn Sampson owned 7.4 percent of the company, or 1.6 million shares, followed by Fregenal, whose 1.3 million shares amounted to a 6.4 percent ownership stake in the company.

Other shareholders owning 5 percent or more of the company are AWM Investment Company Inc. (8 percent) and Cannell Capital LLC (7.9 percent).

Sampson, who was named to Fathom’s board in 2019, was one of Fathom’s earliest investors. Having turned 83, Sampson decided not to run for re-election to the board in August. The board elected to downsize from seven to six members, with the remaining directors reelected to one-year terms.

Fathom Holdings board of directors

Marco Fregenal

Marco Fregenal

Fregenal, who before replacing Harley as CEO last year had served as Fathom’s CFO and COO, was named to Fathom’s Board in 2019 and is credited with diversifying the company’s market presence, developing its technology, and completing multiple acquisitions.


Scott Flanders

Scott Flanders

A CPA and former CEO of companies including eHealth Inc., Freedom Communications and Columbia House Company, Flanders has served on Fathom’s board since August 2022. He also serves on the board of directors of Deepwell Inc., 890 5th Avenue Partners and 200 Park Avenue Partners.


Ravila Gupta

Ravila Gupta

As the CEO of Bagchi Group Inc., Gupta leads the company’s efforts to provide business strategy, financial services, and board and executive coaching support to clients. Named to Fathom’s board in March 2021, she also serves on the board of Marsh Cabinets, a privately held cabinetry company, and holds an advisory board role at Primo Partners LLC, a real estate and Ben & Jerry’s franchise development company.


David C. Hood

David Hood

An audit partner at Ernst & Young from 2005 until his retirement in 2015, Hood has served on Fathom’s board since May 2019. As an executive at contract research services provider IQVIA Holdings Inc. from 1993 to 2000, he helped take the company public. A CPA, Hood has experience in taking organizations public, raising capital and mergers and acquisitions.


Stephen Murray

Steve Murray

A co-founder, partner and senior advisor at REAL Trends Consulting Inc. and senior advisor to HW Media, Murray joined Fathom’s board in July 2023. Murray’s “extensive experience in the residential and brokerage industry” qualifies him to serve on the board, Fathom said.


Jennifer B. Venable

Jennifer Venable

As vice president and general counsel at Capitol Broadcasting Company for 11 years, Venable has experience with complex legal issues, corporate governance, international business and project management. Before being named to Fathom’s board in February 2019, Venable was general counsel at Alfresco Software Inc. and also served as commercial counsel and senior partner manager of Red Hat Inc.


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When is a buyer contract required? At showings — but not open houses

A version of this story was originally published on May 1, 2024, under the headline, “NAR clarifies when a buyer contract will be required under settlement.” Inman has republished it in an effort to assist agents as commission rules change.

The National Association of Realtors’ proposed nationwide settlement agreement for antitrust commission cases requires brokers and agents to sign contracts with buyers they are “working with” before a buyer “tours any home.”

But what exactly does that mean?

NAR Chief Legal Officer Katie Johnson answered that question and others in May, offering some clarity about rules around the contracts. In her email, Johnson pointed members to NAR’s facts.realtor site and an updated FAQ page.

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‘Working with’ a buyer

Under the proposed settlement, just marketing services to a buyer or just talking to a buyer on the seller’s behalf — for instance, at an open house or showing a client’s listing to an unrepresented buyer — does not mean you are “working with” a buyer, according to NAR’s FAQ.

Therefore, buyers who attend open houses or who arrange to see a property through the listing agent do not have to sign anything to do so, under the NAR rule changes. The changes do not require that listing agents and buyers sign any agreements together so long as the listing agent remains solely a representative of the seller.

But providing actual brokerage services to a buyer, i.e. identifying potential homes, arranging a showing with the listing agent, negotiating for the buyer, presenting the buyer’s offers, or performing other services for the buyer, are “working with” a buyer, the trade group said.

“If the MLS participant is working only as an agent or subagent of the seller, then the participant is not ‘working with the buyer,’” the FAQ says.

“In that scenario, an agreement is not required because the participant is performing work for the seller and not the buyer.”

Alternatively, in a situation where the agent is an authorized dual agent and/or in a designated agency situation where the broker represents both the buyer and the seller but has different agents work with both, he or she is working with the buyer, as well as the seller, so a contract would be required before a home tour.

Asked when dual agency is created, a NAR spokesperson told Inman, “Agency is a matter of state law, including how dual agency is defined, what disclosures are required, and whether it is a lawful choice for consumers.

“Typically, dual agency requires a brokerage seeking to provide brokerage services to the seller and buyer in the same transaction to obtain consent and enter into a written agreement with both the seller and buyer. Dual agency is not typically created when a listing broker answers a buyer’s questions or shows a home to an unrepresented buyer.”

According to NAR, a written buyer agreement is required when an MLS participant performs “ministerial acts,” but not if the participant doesn’t expect to be paid for those acts and hasn’t taken the buyer to tour a home.

“Like dual agency, ministerial acts are generally defined by state law,” NAR’s spokesperson said.

“Typically, ministerial acts are acts performed by a brokerage that are purely informative or clerical and do not involve providing brokerage services or active representation.”

‘Touring’ a home

First things first: A home is a residential property of between one and four dwelling units, according to the FAQ.

“Touring a home means when the buyer and/or the MLS participant, or other agent, at the direction of the MLS participant working with the buyer, enter(s) the house,” the FAQ says.

“This includes when the MLS participant or other agent, at the direction of the MLS participant, working with the buyer enters the home to provide a live, virtual tour to a buyer not physically present.”

A written agreement doesn’t necessarily mean a written agency agreement

On Aug. 6, NAR updated its FAQ to specify that an MLS participant working with a buyer can enter into the written agreement with the buyer “at any point but must do so by no later than prior to the buyer ‘touring a home,’ unless state law requires a written buyer agreement earlier in time.”

While many interpreted the requirement for a buyer agreement to mandate an agency agreement, that is not the case, according to NAR.

“MLS participants and buyers will still be able to enter into any type of professional relationship permitted by state law,” the FAQ says.

“NAR policy does not dictate:

  • What type of relationship the professional has with the potential buyer (e.g., agency, non-agency, subagency, transactional, customer).
  • The term of the agreement (e.g., one day, one month, one house, one ZIP code).
  • The services to be provided (e.g., ministerial acts, a certain number of showings, negotiations, presenting offers).
  • The compensation charged (e.g., $0, X flat fee, X percent, X hourly rate).”

But the agreement must specify the compensation charged

According to the proposed settlement, if an agent or broker will receive compensation from any source, the written agreement with the buyer has to specify the amount or rate of compensation to be received or how that amount will be determined, but the amount has to be “objectively ascertainable” and can’t be “open-ended.” For example, the  contract can’t say “buyer broker compensation shall be whatever amount the seller is offering to the buyer,” the settlement says.

In addition, the deal specifies that the compensation an agent or broker receives for brokerage services can’t exceed the amount or rate to agreed to in the agreement with the buyer.

But that does not mean that brokerages can only have one agreement with a buyer, the FAQ says, once again referring to the components of a contract that NAR policy does not dictate.

“Compensation continues to be negotiable and should always be negotiated between MLS participants and the buyers with whom they work,” the FAQ adds.

Active agreements should be amended before the MLS policy change

While the policy changes in the proposed settlement were enacted over the weekend, if an agent or broker will be working with a buyer after the policy goes into effect, then he or she “should take steps to ensure that the buyer has agreed to the necessary terms required by the settlement agreement,” the FAQ says. This includes terms where compensation is currently not “objectively ascertainable” or is “open-ended” or where the buyer broker is allowed to keep any offers of compensation exceeding the amount agreed to with the buyer.

MLS participants are required to disclose that compensation is not set by law and is fully negotiable, but they can disclose that separately and therefore don’t have to amend active agreements to add that disclosure, according to the FAQ.

Regarding active listing agreements, if the agreement tells the listing broker to offer compensation to the buyer broker without referring to the MLS, the agreement doesn’t need to change.

“But if the listing agreement specifies that offers of compensation be made ‘on the MLS,’ then the listing broker should work with the seller to amend the listing agreement before the MLS policy change is implemented, to make it clear the listing broker will not make an offer of compensation on the MLS and will not be violating the listing agreement by failing to make an offer of compensation on the MLS,” the FAQ says.

Michael Ketchmark of Ketchmark & McCreight, lead plaintiffs’ counsel in the Sitzer | Burnett case, declined to comment on NAR’s reading of the agreement.

“Under the law, once the settlement is finally approved, anyone covered by the agreement is required to abide by it,” Ketchmark said. “If we believe, as class counsel, that somebody is not abiding by the agreement, we can take appropriate steps.”

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Inflation cools again in June, giving mortgage rates room to ease

As inflation gets closer to Fed’s 2 percent target, economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict mortgage rates will continue to drop into the low sixes by the end of next year.

At Inman Connect Las Vegas, July 30-Aug. 1 2024, the noise and misinformation will be banished, all your big questions will be answered, and new business opportunities will be revealed. Join us.

After holding steady for two weeks, mortgage rates look poised to resume a pullback from 2024 highs, after the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation fell for the third month in a row.

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The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.51 percent in June from a year ago, just half a percentage above the Fed’s 2 percent target, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

Core PCE, which excludes the cost of food and energy and can be a more reliable indicator of underlying inflation trends, was up 2.63 percent from a year ago, essentially flat from May.

PCE and Core PCE trending down

“We see a decent chance that core PCE hits 2 percent in the middle of next year, much sooner than the Fed’s forecast,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note to clients. Projections issued by Fed policymakers in June showed they didn’t expect inflation to hit 2 percent until 2026.

Ian Shepherdson

“If we’re right, the clear and obvious progress towards the target across [the second half of 2024], coupled with a loosening of the labor market, will push the Fed into easing much more quickly than their current forecasts,” Shepherdson predicted.

Pantheon Macroeconomics is predicting the Fed will cut short-term interest rates by 1.25 percentage points this year, starting with a 25 basis-point cut in September, followed by 50 basis-point reductions in November and December. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

That would bring the federal funds rate to between 4 percent and 4.25 percent, down from the current target of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent.

Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool show investors aren’t anticipating the Fed will cut that drastically. As of Friday, futures markets investors put the odds that the Fed will cut rates by at least 75 basis points this year at 65 percent, and only about a 7 percent chance for deeper cuts.

The latest PCE data came on the heels of a surprisingly strong gross domestic product (GDP) report released Thursday. The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis put second-quarter GDP growth at 2.8 percent, up from 1.4 percent in Q1.

That rate of growth “was undeniably robust, easily beating both our own and the consensus forecasts,” economists at Pantheon said in their July 26 U.S. Economic Monitor. “Looking under the hood, however, we see good reasons to think this strength will be short-lived.”

The biggest driver of Q2 GDP was stronger than expected government spending, Pantheon economists said, which “looks unlikely to be repeated, given the pressure that much weaker revenue growth is putting on state and local government finances.”

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a barometer for mortgage rates, dropped 6 basis points Friday after the release of the June PCE price index. Treasury yields had climbed by about the same amount Thursday on the strong GDP report.

Rates for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages averaged 6.77 percent Thursday, down half a percentage point from a 2024 high of 7.27 percent registered on April 25, according to rate lock data tracked by Optimal Blue.

A survey by Mortgage News Daily showed rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were down 5 basis points Friday, back to about where they were a week ago.

Economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict mortgage rates will continue to drop into the low sixes by the end of next year.

Mortgage rates projected to ease

Source: Fannie Mae and Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, July 2024.  

The recent decline in mortgage rates hasn’t sparked a rush to buy homes, with a weekly MBA survey of lenders showing requests for purchase loans fell by a seasonally adjusted 4 percent during the week ending July 19 when compared to the week before, and was off 15 percent from a year ago.

A series of encouraging consumer price index (CPI) reports have also raised expectations that the Fed will ease, although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers at the central bank have consistently warned that they won’t cut rates until they’re convinced inflation has truly been tamed.

That was the gist of remarks Fed Governor Christopher Waller made on July 17, following the release of a CPI report showing price appreciation cooled to 3 percent annually in June.

Christopher Waller

“On the one hand, it is essential that monetary policy get inflation down to a sustained level of 2 percent,” Waller said. “If we start to loosen policy too soon, and allow inflation to flare up again, we risk losing credibility with the public and allowing expectations of future inflation to become unanchored.”

The credibility the Fed has gained by keeping rates elevated “has helped inflation fall as quickly as it has in the past 18 months and squandering it would be a grave mistake,” Waller said. “Monthly PCE inflation has very recently been running near 2 percent at an annual rate, but I need to see a bit more evidence that this will be sustained.”

Waller also acknowledged that there’s also a risk that if the Fed waits too long to cut rates, that could contribute to “a significant economic slowdown or a recession, with unemployment rising notably.”

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