How to Calculate Rent On Any Property

Knowing how to price your rental property has been an issue since the dawn of time (or whenever the first rental was). Before the internet and modern technology, investors were driving around hoping to see a “for rent” sign and writing down (on paper) how much each place was going for. 

Fast-forward to today, and calculating how much to set the rent for your property has changed dramatically. Let’s jump into how to correctly price your rental in today’s world from our friends at Baselane. 

Do a Market Rental Analysis

A market analysis is a deep dive into every metric involved locally in your investing journey. Identifying trends will set you up for long-term success in any market and allow for higher rent increases in the future when identified correctly. Your property will most likely be similar to others in the rental market area, and you can compare earnings using this data.

Using actively listed properties can give you insight into a rental range, but only the ones leased in the last 12 months or less (six is better) can give you the accurate range that the market is dictating. Comparable properties should be within a half-mile of your property, and it would be even better if you could grab direct neighborhood comparisons. A trusted, investor-friendly real estate agent can help you learn what properties are renting for accurately if you live in a nondisclosure state (like myself in Texas), or you can utilize rental estimate tools. 

Once you have shrunken your search size to properties in your area, the next step is ensuring they are truly comparable. A 2009-built, five-bedroom house with a 10,000-square-foot lot is not the same as a 1987-built, two-bedroom townhouse, even if they are across the street. Choosing at least three comparable properties will help you confidently estimate current market rent.

There will also be varying vacancy rates and rental demand in each area to consider. Rent could have fallen in an area over the last five years, but only one year has been steady. A market in a different state could be rapidly rising because a new, massive distribution warehouse center has begun construction. 

Each market also has management and maintenance costs that can vary. This will all be part of your due diligence process, and understanding the nuances of investing in your market will help you thrive. 

Research Rent Control Laws

Rent control laws differ by state, so it’s crucial to consider local regulations when setting your rental price. For instance, in California, rent increases are limited to 10% or 5% plus the rate of inflation, whichever is lower. Meanwhile, in Florida, landlords are unrestricted in how much they can raise rent, though they are required to provide tenants with proper notice ahead of time. 

Always ensure you know the specific laws in your area before changing rent and ending up in hot water.

Calculate Operating Costs

Operating expenses are another critical factor many investors overlook. Unfortunately, you have quite a few more expenses than just the mortgage. Your ideal scenario is to receive your rent, take out all of your expenses, and then still have some cash left over each month, depending on your goals. 

Common rental property operating costs include:

  • Maintenance
  • Repairs
  • Utilities
  • Landlord insurance
  • Management fees
  • Property taxes
  • Vacancy

This list can be added to, depending on your location. 

The rental market is ever-evolving, with each location balancing appreciation and cash flow, which you need to consider. The 1% rule provides a quick way to estimate how much rent to charge. It suggests that your monthly rent should be about 1% of your property’s value.

For instance, if your property is worth $300,000, you’d aim for $3,000 in rent. Once you’ve calculated this, compare it to your expenses, ensuring your operating costs (like maintenance, taxes, and insurance) are less than 50% of your gross rental income. This ensures profitability while covering essential costs.

These are just some baseline rules to examine, and in today’s market, these rules may not even be completely achievable. I use them as a rule to see if I want to examine a deal even further. The 0.8% rule may actually be the new standard; it is just not as catchy. 

Determine the Value of Amenities

You can typically increase rent for units that offer desirable amenities. 

Features such as smart home devices, fitness centers, and pet-friendly services can significantly boost a property’s appeal. Other popular amenities that may justify higher rental rates include outdoor kitchens, package management systems, lap and lounge pools, and community gardens. Additionally, co-working spaces, courtyards, or rooftop decks offer communal areas that attract tenants looking for a modern lifestyle. 

Offering these features can enhance your property’s value and differentiate it in a competitive rental market.

Adjust Rent Based on Seasonality and Inflation

Rental demand fluctuates throughout the year, with higher rents during peak periods like summer and winter holidays and lower rates in off-seasons like fall and spring. People would rather not move their kids during the school year or pack during the holiday season.

Inflation also affects rent. As operating costs increase, landlords may need to raise rents. Always monitor the local market, inflation trends, and cost of living to determine appropriate rent increases.

Final Thoughts

Determining the right amount to charge in rent is essential to maximizing your revenue and success for the future. If the market is competitive, consider adding upgrades like parking spaces or smart home features to attract tenants. Pet-friendly properties often allow for higher rent as well, but come with their own concerns of possible pet damage. 

For collecting rent and tracking expenses, Baselane streamlines the process with automated payments, reminders, and even late fees. Tenants can pay easily through ACH or card from any device, helping to ensure on-time payments and a smoother experience for both parties. The days of mailing rent checks, writing down when you paid your bills, and driving around searching for “for rent” signs are thankfully in the past. 

Start analyzing today

A good investment begins with a solid plan built upon solid math. Quickly and efficiently analyze a potential real estate investment using BiggerPockets’ investment calculators. We’re here to help you maximize your profit while lowering your risk—no matter your strategy.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Rental Demand Could “Catch Up” in These Oversupplied, Struggling Markets

America is experiencing a strange housing supply problem. On one hand, we don’t have enough housing supply nationally; on the other, we have too much housing supply in cities like Austin and Fort Myers, and as a result, these cities are seeing significant rent declines. Meanwhile, rents are still going strong in much of the Midwest, as their supply-constrained markets give landlords and real estate investors the upper hand. But, even in the “oversupplied” markets, is there a chance for rent price redemption in the future?

We brought on BiggerPockets’ own Market Intelligence Analyst, Austin Wolff, to share his latest findings on housing supply. Austin talks about why rents are growing in some parts of the US but declining in more oversupplied markets. But with the slowing down of construction, will these oversupplied markets become undersupplied? Will landlords in these markets be happy they held onto their properties in a few years?

Austin also shares the exact market he’s making his first real estate investment, which boasts high demand but has yet to see a significant supply bump for his asset class. Does higher supply always mean lower rents? Not quite, and we’ll get into why in this episode!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
Right now in the US there is a shortage of somewhere between three and 7 million homes or housing units depending on who you ask. And this constrained housing supply is one of the biggest hurdles for investors and everyday home buyers alike. But supply is slowly starting to change, and today we’re going to dig on where supply is growing and what it means for investors. Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and I’m super excited to be honest about today’s episode because our guest is Austin Wolf, who is a BiggerPockets employee. We work on the same team together. He is our new market intelligence analyst and his job at BiggerPockets is to study the housing market to look at what’s going on in different markets and bring them to our audience in different formats. He has contributed to the Market Finder tool. He is a regular blog author for the first time he’s coming on the market to share some original research that he did into housing supply, what’s going on in various markets and how it’s impacting rental performance, vacancy rates across the entire country. It’s super cool research. I think you’re going to learn a lot. First and foremost, I’ll provide a little bit of background about housing supply and how we got where we are. Then we’ll talk about where supply is increasing across the us and of course we’ll send our conversation around how investors might use current market conditions and the research that we’re sharing to benefit your own portfolio. So let’s bring on Austin and dig in.

Dave:
Austin Wolff, welcome to On the Market. Thanks so much for being here today.

Austin:
Thank you. Happy to be here.

Dave:
Well, this is a thrill for me. I’m very excited to have you. As I said in the intro, Austin is an analyst here at BiggerPockets, and this is something we’ve been talking about and dreaming about for a while, having a great analyst who could dive deep into research topics and bring them to us here on the market and other parts of the BiggerPockets content world. And today is the manifestation of all of that planning and thinking. Austin, maybe you could just give everyone a quick intro, a personal background before we dive into today’s episode.

Austin:
Yeah, absolutely. When I was just coming out of high school, that’s when I started listening to BiggerPockets around 2018, and I absolutely loved the show and eventually I found myself in a career as a data scientist as well as an analyst. And the number one piece of data that I loved analyzing was real estate markets. And so me coming on to BiggerPockets as the market intelligence analyst is probably the absolute best fit for me and my skills and my career. So I am very happy to be here and I’m very happy to look at and talk about markets all day long.

Dave:
Great. I mean, as you could probably tell, Austin and I are kindred spirits in this regard, but Austin, can I actually put you on the spot? Are you willing to tell everyone your story about your first deal?

Austin:
Yeah, sure. Okay. So I’ve been living in Los Angeles and when I first started listening to BiggerPockets, that’s when I was just leaving high school. So I didn’t quite have the savings to invest in my first deal. And then I started to save because I wanted to do a house hack in Los Angeles. I didn’t want to leave. And then interest rates went through the roof and house hacking in Los Angeles became almost infinitely harder. And so what I wanted to do was look at all of the markets, all of the data, population growth, job growth prices, went to price ratio, all of that good data, and look at what are the best markets for a beginner like myself to either invest out of state or possibly move into a house hack. And so out of all this research, I found some great markets. The market that I picked was Fayetteville, Arkansas,

Dave:
Shout out to Henry

Austin:
And spoken about a lot on this show and I finally understand why. So last month I flew there and I went around, this is just a subjective opinion, but it reminds me of Phoenix 2016. I actually grew up in Phoenix and I go there a lot. It reminds me of the growth that happened in Phoenix 2016 with almost Phoenix 2016 prices. So that looks very similar to me. It’s booming over there for its size, and I put an offer on a new construction house that I’ll be moving to and house hacking and yeah, we just signed yesterday, so

Dave:
Yesterday, right? Yes. It’s so exciting. I love this story so much that Austin joined BiggerPockets. He had been working on this for a while, but did some research into markets and different markets and went out and just bought his first house hack within a couple of weeks of being a BiggerPockets employee. Super excited for you, Austin. I love that you’re just living, you’re walking the walk here with your research too, which is super cool. Thank you for that background. Sorry to put you on the spot, but it’s so cool. I wanted to share, but let’s get into today’s topic, which if you’ve forgotten by now is we’re talking about housing supply. And just before we get into Austin’s research, I just wanted to give a quick recap to where we are in terms of housing supply. So first and foremost, we use the supply word supply in real estate in two ways that can get a little confusing.

Dave:
One is the overall total supply of houses in the United States, so how many physical structures, how many housing units exist across the entire country. Then oftentimes we talk about inventory as supply because when you’re looking at the marketplace of real estate and you’re trying to measure current demand versus the current supply, you want to look at what’s actually for sale right now. And so that’s why inventory can often be called supply. But from my understanding, your research we’re going to talk about here today, Austin is really sort of the first one, right? We’re talking about housing units, the total number of housing units that exist in the United States.

Austin:
Yes, yes. So supply has been increasing over the years if no one has noticed the amount of new construction that has been added into the marketplace across the entire United States on a per metro basis, an MSA is a metropolitan statistical area on a per metro basis. On average, each metro has been adding about 4% of its total supply per year every single year. That being said, there are certain areas that are adding much more than that, and that’s something that we can get into and how that impacts rents.

Dave:
Okay, great. So this is sort of the theme of the conversation and we definitely will be getting into individual markets, and I’m really excited to hear about what it’s going to do to rent, but I just wanted to remind people that the context of this, because we’re going to be talking a lot today about supply growth, and sorry to spoil a little bit how some markets, there’s a lot of supply coming online, but the important context here is that the United States by pretty much every measurement is in some sort of supply shortage. Now, depending on who you ask, that shortage could be one and a half million. It could be 3 million, it could be 7 million, but pretty much everyone agrees that there aren’t enough housing units to meet total overall demand for housing. And we’ve talked about this on the show before, but just as a quick reminder as to some of the reasons for that, a lot of it goes back to the great recession.

Dave:
A lot of building companies went out of business, it was just not very appealing for many years to build homes when prices were in the gutter. And so for many years, from about 2008 to the mid 2010s, we were underbuilding. And even though construction levels have sort of picked up since then, it created a deficit. Now, fast forward construction’s picked up, but construction’s just one of these things for at least for single family homes that it doesn’t scale so high because it takes time for houses to get built. It’s also just the way the construction industry works. A builder doesn’t want to sell a hundred units in one zip code all the same time because there’s probably enough demand in that moment for that supply. And so they spread it out. It takes time. There are zoning restrictions, cost of labor and material up, all those reasons, we are probably in a housing shortage. So that is the situation. Now let’s turn our conversation to what’s going on today. And Austin, maybe you can just help all of us understand why is this important in the first place? Why are we even talking about total housing supply? Why should real estate investors care?

Austin:
So as supply is added into the market, an easy example to pick on is Austin, Texas. I love that town, but it’s currently experiencing large rent declines because of a high number of vacancies in these apartment buildings. And why do apartment buildings now suddenly have a lot of vacancies? Well, it’s because there are new apartment units that existed before. So when supply is added into a market, the owners of these buildings have to fill these units. And when there is a large number of these buildings going up all at once, all at the same time, there’s a large number of vacancies in these new apartments, and they essentially might have to lower the rents that they’re charging in order to get tenants into these buildings because tenants now have more options between all of these new apartment buildings that have gone up. So the more supply that gets added into the market, it puts downward pressure on rent growth and can even drive rents lower than they were before in order to get these apartment units filled up, so to speak. So long story short, new supply can put downward pressure on rents, which is good for renters, can be not so good for investors. And then in a minute we’ll talk about why that still might be a good thing for investors, but we’ll get to that.

Dave:
We have to take a quick break to hear from our sponsors, but stick with us because Austin is going to break down his research including where supply is increasing right after this. Welcome back to On the Market, I’m here with analyst Austin Wolfe. Can you give me an overview then of what you started to look into? What questions were you trying to answer about housing supply when you started this research you’re going to share with us?

Austin:
I had a hunch that looking at supply would give me insight into which markets are currently seeing the most rent declines and will likely continue seeing either rent declines or just stagnant rent growth. So rent’s not growing, rent’s not declining because of the new supply. I started there. First I wanted to get a picture of where are rents at right now? Are they growing on a national level? Are they shrinking? What metros are currently experiencing rent declines? What I found was nationally rents are up in the past year by almost 2%. That’s on average across all markets, but as we alluded to, there are certain markets where rents are declining. Fort Myers for example, has added a lot of new supply they have. They’re seeing a rent decline of about 5%, 5.7% over the past year. Dallas, Texas, 1.6% rent declines, Phoenix, Arizona, almost two and a half percent rent declines.

Austin:
So that alone was very interesting, but in my opinion, it’s not enough to look at just rent declines over the past year. I also wanted to understand, okay, do vacancies have anything to do with this? Yes, they do is what I found. National vacancy rate is about 7.6% across all metros on average. So the national is 7%, right? Fort Myers has a vacancy of 15%, basically double the national rate. And as I said before, Fort Myers is experiencing a 5% rent decline, Dallas, Texas, 10% vacancy, Phoenix, Arizona, 11% vacancy, and the list goes on. I can do this all day, but it’s my favorite thing. But after I looked at vacancies, that’s when I also wanted to bring in supply into the equation. We have rent declines, we have vacancies. Now let’s just look at the amount of new supply that’s being added into this market and see how that is driving rents down or putting downward pressure on rents. Hope that makes sense.

Dave:
Yeah, it absolutely does make sense. And I just want to clarify, this is all multifamily supply, right? We’re talking about multifamily construction,

Austin:
Correct.

Dave:
And I think it’s important because obviously it’s a different asset class than residential construction, but there is a correlation and important relationship between multifamily rents and single family rents. And so even if you’re not a multifamily investor, I know just my experience living investing in Denver, we don’t have a lot of construction for single family homes. We have a lot of multifamily construction, but that is impacting rents for single family or small multifamily operators as well. But just to sort of summarize, I think what you’re saying here, Austin, is the cities where we are having the most supply, it stands to reason vacancies are going up. And when vacancies go up, rents go down because operators are competing for tenants. And so the way people compete for tenants is by lowering prices and that’s why rents go down. But I’m interested because some of the markets that you were talking about were or are some of the markets that have the strongest population growth, and so is it just that supply is coming on faster than even booming? Cities like Austin are growing?

Austin:
So the way that I like to think of supply is a lagging indicator of demand. Builders will build supply because they foresee growth in the near future or they see growth right now and they want to capitalize on that. So in these places that were essentially the pandemic Boone towns mostly across the Sunbelt, you’re right, there was large population growth, there still is good job growth in these places. I think that there is going to be a catch-up period. Essentially, all of these units came online, I don’t want to say at once, but over the long run, they came online at once. And because all of these new apartments are essentially sitting vacant with hundreds of units all at once, it’s going to take a while for the market, so to speak, to reach equilibrium. So I don’t think that rents are going to go down forever as new units are added, that will not happen. I just think that it’s going to take some time for the market to catch up, so to speak, with all of the new supply that’s being added.

Dave:
To me, this sort of was a pretty confusing part of market dynamics for a while, but it’s becoming more clear because I can imagine ever listening I felt the same way. You’re sort of like, okay, we’re at a housing shortage. We just talked about it. We have three to 7 million units short of what we need. How are you saying that there’s an oversupply, and I was actually talking to someone recently who compared it to a flood and obviously not in a good way. Floods are terrible things, but it’s like you can be in a drought and then experienced a ton of rain all at once, and that could be really damaging to the entire ecosystem. But at the end of the flood you could still be in a drought. And that’s sort of how the multifamily market seems to be right. We don’t have enough units.

Dave:
People just started building crazy three or four years ago and they’re all coming online. We’re getting the flood of units and it will take for those apartments a while to get absorbed. And I’m going to butcher this analogy, just like it takes a while for the floodwater to get absorbed back into the water table. Is that sort of what you mean? Austin is like rents aren’t going to go down to ever. We’re just in this period right now where not everyone moves at one point. Not everyone wants an apartment the minute all this stuff comes online, so it’s just going to take some time to sort itself out.

Austin:
That’s a great analogy. And just because Austin, Texas adds 20,000 units within the span of a few months doesn’t mean that there are 20,000 people ready to move into these units within those three months. You’re absolutely right. I really like that analogy. That’s clear enough for me.

Dave:
Alright, good. Well, I stole it from a guest on the BiggerPockets real estate show, so don’t give me any credit, but I like it and I butchered it. Okay, so when you were doing this research, you mentioned a couple of markets that were having negative growth. What about the markets that have little to no supply? Because I invest personally in a Midwest market where they just don’t build multifamily. And I am curious if that’s common and what’s happening in those types of markets?

Austin:
In those types of markets where they generally don’t build multifamily. Single family rents are going up. I don’t have an exact number in front of me, but they are positive and they are growing faster than multifamily. Personally in the market that I have chosen Fayetteville, there are a number of cities within the northwest Arkansas area. Bentonville is where the Walmart HQ is, and they are building many, many apartment buildings in that specific area. However, in Fayetteville where the college is south of Bentonville, there are no apartment buildings under construction currently, none at all. There are only a few multifamily buildings up already and everything else is single family and those rents have been going up. So there hasn’t been as much downward pressure on single family as there has multifamily.

Dave:
Alright, so you were talking about your research and sort of talking about you looked at rents, vacancies and how they were related. Where did you go from there?

Austin:
Okay, now that we know that rents are declining in certain markets, vacancies are high in those markets. What does the supply look like in these? Going back to the Fort Myers example, they’ve added 11% of its total supply over the past year. So just as a example, if a market has a thousand apartment units, let’s say 10% of that would be adding an additional a hundred units, right? So Fort Myers added an additional 11% of its total supply in the past year, which is God massive. Yes. And it has over 22% more supply currently under construction. So this is massive and that’s probably why it’s currently experiencing a 15% vacancy doubled the national average. Just a few more examples, Raleigh, North Carolina, I know that was experienced a relatively good boom during the pandemic. They’ve added 8% of its total supply over the past year, and they have 9% more under construction, and they currently have an 11% vacancy rate, so not as high as Fort Myers, but they’re still experiencing about a 3% rent decline. So what I wanted to do from there was, okay, I have these examples that I’m looking at with my eyes. What does the math tell me? Is there a way to mathematically measure the relationship between supply growth and rent decline?

Dave:
Yes.

Austin:
Turns out there is yes. Yeah, the answer is yes. And it uses, I’m going to get a little geeky. It uses this measure in statistics called the correlation coefficient. What does that mean? It’s just the measure of the relationship between, we’ll say two variables, and that’s measured between negative one and positive one. And the closer that relationship measure is to positive one, the more they have a, let’s say, positive relationship. If one goes up, the other goes up, the more the correlation coefficient is closer to negative one, they have an inverse relationship. If one goes up, the other goes down. You can see where I’m headed with this. In the past three years in which I measured this from 2021 to 2024, many of the biggest markets had a correlation close to negative one between supply and rents. Supply is going up, it puts downward pressure on rents.

Austin:
Now, no market has a perfect negative one correlation. That would just mean that anytime you add supply rents go down. That’s not realistic. These markets had anywhere between negative 40% to negative 70%. So a strong relationship but not a one-to-one. So as supply increases for many of these markets, it puts downward pressure on rents. And that correlation coefficient is essentially how we can measure and describe how strong that relationship is for each market. And each market is different. Not all markets have the exact same relationship. What did the data say? Well, New York actually had the largest negative relationship between supply and rents. They’re very highly correlated. They had a correlation of about negative 70%. So again, not perfect negative correlation at negative a hundred percent, but essentially what that tells me is if supply is added in New York, it puts downward pressure on rents more so than any other market in the nation right now.

Austin:
Why is that? In my opinion, it’s because rents there are already so high, they already have such a huge housing shortage that any additional supply can help alleviate a little bit how much of those rents have risen. And again, rents are very expensive in New York, so maybe any little bit helps. Another one was Washington, DC and Phoenix, they had about negative 69% correlation. So as units are added there, rents can go down. Fort Myers, that big example that I keep going back to, they actually only had a negative 40% relationship and Dallas had a negative 44% relationship. So again, these measures aren’t exactly one-to-one, but to me they’re a good ballpark of seeing, okay, which markets, if we add more supply, are rents likely going to go down or at least stay stagnant or have downward pressure on them? And that’s something that we’ve actually published on the blog, which maybe we can link to in the show notes. We analyze the largest rental markets and then I’ve sort of listed all of the correlations for these biggest markets between that time period. Again, you don’t really need to know this data. I just think it’s fun to see, oh, that’s interesting, Phoenix, the units we had in Phoenix, the more likely it is rents are going to go down.

Dave:
Just to summarize for everyone, there are different markets. We talk about supply coming online, but it’s not the same in every single market. In some places if you add supply, it doesn’t really matter all that much. In other places like New York or Phoenix, it’s going to have a huge implication for rent and it’s going to have a negative impact. Now, I think it’s important to remember though, when we’re talking about correlations that just because something has a strong correlation doesn’t tell us anything about the severity of the decline, right? So just because new supply pushes down rent doesn’t mean that New York is going to experience a bigger rent drop than another market that is not part of the correlation coefficient metric and what it’s telling us. So from there, I’m curious because the coefficient tells us something about what’s happened in the past, it’s looking at historical trends, but can we use it to look forward about where rent is likely to grow or decline?

Austin:
All the numbers I just said, were looking at the data between 2021 and 2024. That is a three year period. You could use that number as a forecast to forecast maybe the next year or the year after that. It’s going to be a very poor forecast with a large margin of error. So before answering the question, I wanted to look at what did the correlation coefficient look like between the years 2020 24? What did it look like on a longer time period? In my opinion, that would give us a better way to answer that question of what this might look like in the future. And what’s interesting is between the years 2020, 24, a 24 year period, most of these markets that I just said that had a negative correlation between 2021 and 2024 in the past three years, over the past 24 years, they had a positive relationship. As supply came online, as new supplies added into a market, it was highly correlated with rent increases. Now, before I go forward, I just want to give a disclaimer. Correlation does not equal causation. Just because supply units are coming online does not mean it directly causes rents to go up over that 24 year period. Does not mean it directly causes rents to decline in the three year period that we looked at. It’s possible that it could have a causation, but correlation does not equal causation. Just wanted to throw that disclaimer out there.

Dave:
That’s a good point because to me it’s sort of a chicken in the egg problem, or not question I guess not problem. But yeah, so supply comes online and in the short run it might negatively impact rents. But over the long run, I would imagine supply is coming online because that area is booming, right? Builders aren’t dumb. They’re seeing something that’s causing them to build supply. So it kind of makes sense to me that over the long run, supply growth is a positive thing.

Austin:
The amount of supply that’s being added into the market is a lagging indicator of growth. Builders and investors foresee growth either happening right now or in the future and they’re going out and they’re capitalizing on that. So like we see of the correlation coefficient between 2020 24, most of these markets have a very strong positive relationship in that 24 year time. It’s likely because those areas grew a lot. Builders saw that growth, they add a new supply into the market. It hurt in the short term maybe, but in the long term, all it is is a reflection of the growth that’s happening in that market.

Dave:
All right, time for one last short break. We’ll be right back with more discussion on what this data means for investors and what you could do with this opportunity right after this. Hey, investors, welcome back to on the market. What should people do with this information? Austin, if you’re an investor listening to this saying, Hey, supply short term could negatively impact grants. It could be great. I have a market where let’s just say supply is growing or whatever it is. How would you use this information

Austin:
To answer that? I have one more piece of data to throw in there and then I can finally answer this question. In 2022, we had about 1 million units on our construction. In 2023, we had about 1.1 million units under construction this year we have about only 800,000 units under construction. So the amount of units under construction is decreasing. The supply that will be coming online will also be decreasing in these coming years. And so it’s possible that rents will either continue to decline in these markets by a very, very small amount, or they’ll stagnate or their growth will be very small. So if you’re an investor, I think it would depend on the type of asset that you’re buying. Single family is going to be a little bit different from multifamily. We’ve been talking about multifamily almost exclusively this entire show. And all the data I’ve spoken to at this point has been multifamily data. So if you’re a person that’s looking to buy or invest or own single family rentals, the multifamily market is going to impact you a little bit. But there are renters out there that want to rent a house and not an apartment unit, and that’s likely why we haven’t seen rents decline in single family markets as much as we have in the multifamily markets. There’s just not as much of them out there.

Austin:
They have things that apartments don’t like front yard, backyard. I know town homes are a little different, but we’re talking about apartment buildings right now. So if you own a single family rental, I think you’re fine. Things are going to be okay for you. That’s good. Yeah, I don’t think this impacts you that much if you own multifamily buildings, five units or more. I think that in the short term, and by short term I mean two to three years as this new supply continues to come online, I would doubt that there’s going to be rent growth in these major markets. However, rents can’t decline forever. It’s just not going to happen. So I think that if you currently own an asset, I think if you hold onto it as long as you cashflow, I think you’re going to be just fine in the next coming years. I think after a three year period is when we’ll start to see rent growth that is attractive. Again, I don’t think it’s going to be attractive for the next three years,

Dave:
Really. Three years

Austin:
20, 26 to 2027 is sort of my forecast. And again, this is an educated guess.

Dave:
No, but if you’re coming on the show, I make everyone make predictions and we record it, and that’s just part of being on the show is you have to go on the record to make a prediction. So here’s your

Austin:
Prediction. I’m kind of sweating right now. This is intense. Well, yeah. The only reason I have this prediction is because in 2022, again, we have a million units on our construction. In 2023, we have 1.1 million units on our construction, and then it starts to dive from there. Right now, we only have 800,000 units under construction, so it has decreased and it can take up to a few years to get this supply online. So we’re still going to see that supply coming online from projects that were started in 2022 and 2023. But again, the amount of supply that’s going to be added is going to taper off, and I think that the population growth and job growth that is currently happening in these areas will eventually catch up to this flood of supply, so to speak. So I’m putting it out there, 20 26, 20 27, that’s when we’re finally going to see attractive rent growths again. Again, rents can still grow in that time, but I don’t think they’ll grow as much as they will probably in the next three, five years.

Dave:
All right, makes sense. All right, we’re going to hold you to it and we’ll find out if Austin’s right. Austin, my last question for you is if people want to look for this research on their own or look up your research, where should they do this?

Austin:
So there are a few different sources that are public. There’s one source that I use that is not public, but the sources that I use that are public price information, rent growth, you can get from Zillow. And again, Zillow has a free page on their website where you can just download this data into a CSV. It’s very easy to do. Population growth comes from the census. Their website is not as user-friendly as Zillow, but it’s still free.

Dave:
It is certainly not. But they have really good data.

Austin:
They do, and they have a lot of it,

Dave:
Yes,

Austin:
Job growth you can get from a place called the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For example, if you wanted to look at job growth in Phoenix, all you have to do is into Google, type in Phoenix BLS for Bureau of Labor Statistics Economy or job Growth, and then a page will come up or it’ll say Economy at a Glance for Phoenix, Arizona. And so if you just have a few markets in mind that you want to compare or you just want to look at your market, that is a great place to start. And then there are more advanced options for advanced data analytics. You can use data from a subscription from CoStar, but again, I don’t think you need to do that if you’re just looking at a few markets or one market.

Dave:
Awesome. Well, thank you Austin, for telling us all about this and great job on this research. It’s super helpful. Austin also wrote a blog about this. If you want to see what’s going on in individual markets, you could check that on biggerpockets.com/blog. Of course. And if you want to connect with Austin, do that on BiggerPockets. And I’m just going to blow you up, Austin, I’m sorry. But I want to know what sorts of research projects you want Austin to work on in the future? Do you have ideas on new economic market-based research that Austin and myself should be working on? Send them to Austin Wolf on BiggerPockets, and we are going to prioritize them. We’re going to start working on them so you can get more data, more information that impacts your investing portfolio. It’s going to be a lot of fun. I’m super excited about it. And if you are listening on Spotify, we have a fancy new poll you can check out and you can vote on what you want the next research project from Austin to be. I’m very curious what it’s going to be. Austin, thanks again for being here, and congrats on your first deal, man. It’s really exciting.

Austin:
Thank you. I appreciate it.

Dave:
Thank you all for listening. I’m Dave Meyer for BiggerPockets. We’ll see you soon for another episode of On The Market.

Dave:
On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • The state of our 2024 housing shortage problem and why we may be under and oversupplied
  • Where rent prices are falling and the cities with the most supply coming online
  • When demand could finally “catch up” to the high supply these markets are experiencing
  • The correlation between supply and rent prices (and why they aren’t ALWAYS opposite)
  • Long-term rent projections as building starts to slow and demand stays high
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

The Right Way to Do “Value-Add” Real Estate in 2024

What’s the best way to build wealth in 2024? For many, it’s “value-add” real estate investing. You might know what this is, but you may have never heard the term before. Value-add investing is when you buy investment properties, improve them, increase the cash flow, equity, or both, and reap the rewards by holding onto them as rentals or flipping them for quick cash. Today’s investor, Tom Shallcross, is doing just this, but he’s making BIG returns (six figures on flips!) and funneling those profits into his sizable rental portfolio. And he’s doing it all in 2024.

We know that everyone has told you how impossible it is to invest in real estate in 2024, but Tom instantly proves the naysayers wrong. Not only is he flipping houses, but he’s also buying rentals, BRRRRing (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat), and doing it all in a competitive market—Chicago! So what’s he doing differently?

Tom gets the deals before the rest of the investors in his area can, takes on BIG house flips that most investors are too scared to, and constantly reinvests the profits into more real estate. He’s been doing it since 2016 and is STILL finding success in today’s market. How’s he getting the best deals sent to him? How’s he making such large profit margins? We’re uncovering his exact strategy and method in today’s episode.

Photo Credit Mike Richardson:

https://greaterlakesphotography.com/work

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
Value add investing is popular right now and with good reason. It is probably if not the single best way to make money in real estate right now. If you haven’t heard of this term, value add just basically means taking a property that’s not up to its highest and best use and improving it. That can be during a flip. It could be during a bur or just buying a rental property that you want to fix up and add value to it. And if you look on social media, you see a lot of people doing this right now. I’m sure you’ve seen some of the same Instagram posts that I’ve seen where people show these beautiful before and after pictures showing the purchase price and then the price that they sell it for, or how much they increased rents by renovating a property. And it makes it look super easy, super fun, and there’s no risk. But the reality of these projects is that they are profitable, don’t get me wrong, but if you’re in the industry, if you’ve done these types of projects before, you know that there are risks and it does take a lot of time and it takes a lot of skill to be able to do them correctly. And today, that’s what we’re talking about, how to do value add investing the right way in 2024.
Hey everyone, it’s Dave back with the new investor story on the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast. And today we’re speaking with investor Tom Shallcross, who went from operating properties in some of Chicago’s more C class type of neighborhoods to operating 12 month seven figure gut renovation flips in the city’s class A neighborhoods as a full-time career. And I’m excited to talk to Tom because he’s found some really innovative ways to set himself apart in one of the country’s most competitive markets. And he’s finding great ways to do all sorts of kinds of deals here in 2024. And I really want to dig into on his creativity and how he is designing deals to boost cash flow on his rental properties and how he’s mitigating risks on these house flips that he is doing that take nine to 12 months to complete. And he honestly doesn’t really know what macroeconomic conditions are going to look like when he goes to sell these deals. This and a lot more in my conversation with investor Tom Shallcross. Let’s get into it. Tom, welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. Thanks for joining us.

Tom:
It is an honor to be here. I’m pumped, Dave.

Dave:
Yeah, me too. Let’s start at the beginning. Tom, take us back to when you started in real estate. First of all, when was it and what were you doing at the time?

Tom:
Yeah, so I have what I’ll call an accidental house hack. So this is right out of college. I was working probably about 50 miles outside the city. I’m from Chicago, live in the city, so it’s long commute there and back. And at the time you can get a town home pretty cheap and anyone can get a loan, right?

Dave:
Well, what year was this?

Tom:
This is oh seven.
So this is right before everything crashes. It’s easy to get a loan. I end up getting a place down there just to stop traveling every single day. And then I had buddies who were doing the same thing. They were traveling back and forth, so they started living with me and each one of ’em paying me whatever, four or 500 bucks in rent. And all of a sudden it’s like, well, I’m living for free. This is pretty cool. And traveling back to the city on the weekends and it was a good experience. It opened my eyes to real estate and I didn’t hit the ground running though. After that I sat out the best time to buy real estate. I picked up when my W2 job was doing well and I focused on that. It was always kind of in the back of my head that, wow, this thing works. Other people can pay the debt for you and 10 years from now you have this thing X amount of equity. So that opened my eyes, but then like I said, we did not capitalize on it right away.

Dave:
So what was your job? Anything to do with real estate? Back in 2007?

Tom:
I actually, I did lending for a while, so I was kind of tangent to the game. I got to do lending from oh eight to 2011, probably the toughest time to get anyone approved for mortgage. And I think most of the people who did it during that time with me all went on to have decent careers. Just because you’re young, you don’t know any better how hard it is because you just didn’t have any other experience. But then from there, it took W2 jobs doing sales jobs, kind of white collar sales, traveling tech jobs. So that was going very well. So that was where the focus went. And real estate was kind of just on the back burner there.

Dave:
Were you scared of jumping in 2008 or what was preventing you? If the first deal went well and prices only went down from there, why didn’t you buy more?

Tom:
It was one of those things where other good things happened and I followed them, right? It wasn’t so much like, oh, I don’t know if the market’s going to do this. It wasn’t top of mind. And then what happened was things were going well. So I had a buddy who approached me who was in real estate, who was doing this full time, and he approached me to do some private lending. And I said, okay, I trust him. And to this day, we’re still friends and we still do deals together. But I got into it, I private lent for him, and then we started sharing profits on deals. I started seeing what he was making on these. I was like, all right, we hold on a second. We got to jump in. This is ridiculous. You are no smarter than I am, and you’re making very good profits, very good margins on these things. And that’s really when I, all right, we got to start reading the books, found BiggerPockets and started really diving in at that point.

Dave:
And what year was that?

Tom:
That was probably about 2016 ish, 17, somewhere in that range.

Dave:
So you, you’re out of game for a while, and basically, for lack of a better term, you got fomo. You’re doing this private lending, which does offer great returns, but just generally speaking, I do some private lending myself. You’re getting a good cash on cash return, but you’re funding someone who, if they’re doing their job or making huge chunks of equity from flipping houses and doing value add types of investing. And so basically it sounds like you were a little jealous and wanted to get in there.

Tom:
Yeah, absolutely. This was a guy who’s just like me. It wasn’t like he didn’t go get some fancy MBA, he didn’t go do whatever. It’s the guy I knew and was like, hold on, if you can do this, this is an attainable goal.

Dave:
So to me, being a private lender and being active in flipping houses are two pretty different strategies for real estate investors and might be oriented around different goals. So what was your goal when you moved from being a lender into more active investing?

Tom:
The private lending was never intentional, was I had cash in around, he asked me and I did it. So it was never like, all right, if I keep doing this, I’ll grow my blah, blah, blah. There was never a formula there or any sort of long-term plan. So that was just by chance happened. And then once I saw what he was doing, it was like, alright, this takes some effort, this takes some work. But there’s definitely something here. And then once that trickles down and you start reading the books and you realize, all right, there’s a bunch of normal people living off of real estate, let’s go. There’s an opportunity here. It’s proven that this can be done.

Dave:
You said you started reading the books, you found BiggerPockets, you jumped in. What was your first active deal?

Tom:
So we started, Chicago is a very, very vast market and most people, I started just at the lowest price point, which some people make that work. Some people, it’s a mistake. We really started at, you could buy something for 50 grand, put another 50 into it and have it appraised out at one 50 and either flip it or rent it out for 1500 type of thing. And these were in what I would call C neighborhoods. These, I probably underestimated just the amount of effort and time that these would take. But the original game plan was, alright, there’s a low price point, I can recycle the cash and we’re just going to keep doing these until we get to a very scalable number. So that was the original plan coming out of the passive investing.

Dave:
Okay. So you did, it sounds like a bur, right? You bought something for 50 grand, you put 50 grand into it, and were able to refinance, take some money out of it and rent it out hopefully for some solid profit. What kind of cashflow were you generating?

Tom:
We were producing good cashflow, but it was to a point where this wasn’t going to be a sustainable model for what I wanted to do. We actually totally pivoted and moved up to more of a class areas for several reasons. One, it’s where I’m from. I’ve taken advantage of just my knowledge of the neighborhood, easier to manage, not driving an hour down to a property. And two, we discovered my partner who’s a general contractor, we are good at doing these full gut rehabs. And when you’re doing full gut rehabs, you need to be in a submarket where the RV on the backend can justify spending that much on the rehab. So those are two things that became a turning point for us to say, you know what? This can work. This can work for other people. If we pivot now, this is going to work better for us. And that’s where we kind of made the shift to different submarket within Chicago.

Dave:
Okay, cool. So did you sell off the stuff that you had bought in those C-Class neighborhoods?

Tom:
We did.

Dave:
Okay. And then you basically started doing full gut rehabs. Were those burrs or flips or what was the business plan?

Tom:
Yeah, so I look at it, I’m kind of geo-based. We do both. The flips are my income, that’s how I make a living, that’s how pay the bills. And then I take that money as well, whatever’s surplus and keep buying properties. So the goal is to keep buying units. The flips are still part of it. It’s not like, oh, let’s just flip a property. Like no, we need to intentionally do a couple of these a year because it keeps the lights on. But up here in this neighborhood, it is very hard to rent out a single family home because our price per rent ratio doesn’t work very well here. So almost every single family home is a flip in these areas. For example, if you’re all into something for 500 K and it rents for 2200, you’ll never make money. The market doesn’t justify it. So those are almost all flips. And then anything on the multilevel, we’ll do the heavy rehab and then hold onto it.

Dave:
Yeah, that makes total sense. I hear a lot of people transitioning from buy and hold or burr into flipping right now just because it’s better to live off of if you want to be a full-time investor. Tell me, were there challenges and what were they when you switched neighborhoods? Did it make everything easier or did you have some lessons that you had to learn?

Tom:
This neighborhood’s actually better suited for us. We have more knowledge up here. We have more connections up here. This was a better experience. But yeah, you invested in all these different wholesalers, all these different brokers, you feel like there’s a sunk cost there of this time and effort that you’ve put in. You thought you’d hold these buildings for a long time, so you did a lot of CapEx on the front end. You get a little bit of that back when you sell it, but no one really cares that you did brand new windows or some of the stuff that you don’t get that full. So there’s a little bit of that, but for the most part, coming up here was definitely the right move for us.

Dave:
That could be a painful lesson And an important one that you just mentioned, Tom, that you often make your business plan assuming that you’re going to do something that winds up changing. I think the CapEx is a perfect example. You buy a house, you’re like, Hey, I’m going to put 10 grand into this thing because I don’t want to worry about my windows leaking. But then you sort of have to continuously reevaluate your strategy and see if it’s working. Although putting in new windows might’ve been the right decision at the time. Things change, dynamics change, and you have to make sometimes painful decisions that with new information you have to pivot a little bit. And it sounds like you did a good job doing that, but I’m sure it hurt a little bit at the same time.

Tom:
Yeah, it just feels like a sunk cost. It feels like all that time invested of like, oh man, what? And also you’re walking into the unknown. Everything has worked out, right. It’s easy to look back and be like, oh yeah, that was a really good move in a time though. You’re walking into the unknown, it doesn’t feel awesome.

Dave:
Yeah, I’m sure. But it sounds like at least it’s improved your lifestyle. You said that investing in this first neighborhood was keeping you up at night, and do you feel the same way in this new neighborhood?

Tom:
No, this was absolutely the right move for us. We’ve found our niche here and this is ripping off the bandaid has been the right move for sure.

Dave:
All right. It’s time for a break, but stick with us and we’ll be back with more of this week’s investor story. Welcome back to the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast. We’re here with Tom Shallcross. So you mentioned you have a partner who is a general contractor, great partner to have. What part of the business do you run?

Tom:
I’ll just take an example. If we’re we’re looking for acquisitions, I have the relationships, I do the marketing as well. I’ll do a plug for deal machine. I know they sponsor your guys’ show. I’m a huge fan of them. We’ll try to get direct to seller, we’ll deal with wholesalers, we’ll deal with agents, et cetera. I’m doing everything on the acquisition side and before we start a project’s, probably 80% me, 20% him getting his intake on construction costs, getting his intake on how we’re going to do the layouts, but I’m in charge of the acquisition, the funding. And then once we’re into, I’ll call it that rehab mode where we’re going, we have our permits. It flips almost 80 20 to him. He’s running the show. He’s there day to day where I’m there twice a week type of thing. And then once we get back to disposition, it kind of circles back to me whether that be we got to lease up the place or we’re going to sell it.

Dave:
That seems like almost a perfect partnership. Can we dig into that a little bit? I’m sure there are a lot of people listening who would love to create a similar type of situation and just learn more about your deal flow and number of deals you do.

Tom:
Sure. Let’s do it.

Dave:
You mentioned you do a couple flips a year in 2024. What are you on track for

Tom:
Total? With the rentals that we’re rehabbing right now, we have five projects going on, which is about as much as we can do at one given time. Two of them are coming to an end here, so if the number’s going to become three in the next 45 days type of thing, they’re concurrent, but on all different stages.

Dave:
Alright, cool. And so you found all five of those deals, I assume, and were they all off market?

Tom:
One was on the private listing network, which was like the pre-market here on the MLS, but yes, all them either through broker relations, wholesalers, et cetera.

Dave:
You mentioned deal machine, but just what’s your go-to source for deals in today’s day and age?

Tom:
So deal machine plays a part of it, man, it’s not a sexy answer, but it’s reality is the last seven years I have just been every single broker. Every single wholesaler, Hey, do you got anything? They post something, Hey, congratulations. Good job. We have built up the reputation where we’re going to get our at bats, right? And then when we get the at bat and we like it, we’re going to close. I haven’t reneged on anything. So they know that it’s going to be there. I’d say another one that’s been a good help for us is with agents as well, especially with flips. We’ll give them the deal on the backend.

Dave:
Oh, nice.

Tom:
Meaning they bring us something, we pump 500 K of rehab into it. They know nine months from now, 12 months from now, they can go list that thing for 1.5 mil or whatever, and they have this big shiny listing and a big shiny commission. So when they hear in their office that something’s going to the market the next week or two, I’m the first phone call.

Dave:
That’s such a good example of relationship building and networking and real estate. Everyone wants a good off market deal, but the reality is if you want a steady of off market deals, it’s really about relationships. At least in my experience, it’s about connecting with real estate agents. And what Tom has done here is really understanding the mindset of the people he’s working with because an agent could go sell that pocket listing to pretty much anyone, but the biggest prize that you can give them, the reason they’re going to want to work with Tom is because he understands that the resale of this property is what really is going to get that seller motivated to work with him. And he’s finding mutually beneficial win-win situations where people are going to want to be excited to sell Tom a deal versus anyone else that they might be working with.

Tom:
Just put yourself in their shoes. Why would they bring a deal to you? What can I do to make this worth their while?

Dave:
And the commission is good, but also just being a person of your word, as you said, also matters. I’ve found, at least with pocket listings too. Just being quick and responsive is also really helpful. These people want to move stuff quickly. They don’t want to wait around for two days, for three days for you to look at it. And honestly, at least with me, I don’t know if you do the same thing, but if someone sends me a pocket listing and I’m traveling, I’ll be like, thank you. I really appreciate this. I don’t have the energy or the time right now to give this proper attention. You should go give this to someone else. Even though I would love to probably look at that deal, but it just shows I’m thinking of them and I understand their business and I’m not going to take advantage of their time or the fact that they brought this deal to me first.

Tom:
Yeah, absolutely. You can provide a lot of value by just telling them on a similar note, why it doesn’t work. Hey, this one doesn’t work for me. I know you’re saying the rehab’s 200, I’m at three 20. I’m not saying I’m right. You’re right. I can’t do this deal. My numbers are here. If you have someone else to do it, great. Or if it is not in my geo, like, Hey, like you said, you should call X, Y, Z.

Dave:
Yep, exactly. Yeah. Just help people out. They’re going to come help you out. And I know like Tom said, it’s not the sexy thing, but real estate’s a long game. It is and always will be a long game. And you’ve got to just start building those relationships now. And then Tom’s seven years into this, but I’m sure he is got a pretty big Rolodex of people calling him and people he can call what he needs a favor. And if you don’t have that now, that’s okay. That’s how literally everyone starts. But if you just start doing it now, two, three years from now, you’re going to have a great network. Seven years from now, you’re going to be firing on all cylinders and you could carry your business as far forward as you want to.

Tom:
The other thing too is if you don’t have those relationships, then you got to turn up the level of how much you got to grind. And any business. If you’re going to start and you don’t have the relationships, okay, well then you got to double down on those efforts to get direct with seller or do whatever you have to do to get out there. It is what it is. You have to work your way until you have those. And if you’re interested, you just do what’s convenient. You just go on Redfin, you do whatever. But if you are truly committed to this, then you will go be an animal. You will go find a deal.

Dave:
Absolutely. That’s absolutely what it takes to be successful in these types of deals. You can be a successful investor doing on market deals. So you could be successful doing buy and hold long-term rentals. But if you’re in Tom’s game, if you’re trying to do these gut rehabs, trying to get these best deals and getting them at the lowest possible price is a huge part of your business model. So can we just talk about an average deal, these five deals you’re doing in 2024, pick one if you want. What’s the entry point look like in Chicago?

Tom:
Yeah, so do you want to flip? Do you want to a rental? What do you want here?

Dave:
Let’s do flip. We’re talking a lot about flips, so let’s talk about flips.

Tom:
Sure. So again, we focus in higher end neighborhoods because like I said, the RV’s got to justify how much money we’re going to spend on the rehab. So a good example, one we just recently finished is we got this at 7 25, 7 50, and this was a 404 20 K rehab that we then sold at 1 6 4. So just hard costs, like hard costs. Now there’s holding costs, there’s permits, there’s a lot. You pay the agents that’s not profit, there’s a lot more that goes into it. But the three hard cost numbers are the ones I just listed.

Dave:
That’s pretty darn good. And how long did it take you to complete

Tom:
On a four or 500 K rehab? We can be done with construction depending on permits with the city. Chicago’s a little tough, but we can usually be done with construction nine to 10 months. And then if we’re lucky, we have a buyer lined up once we’re drywalled once the finishes are in and you can get in and out in under 12 months, but you kind of got to underwrite these things for 15 months, 18 months, model out when things don’t go according to plan.

Dave:
And what’s the market like right now? Are you able to sell these pretty quickly?

Tom:
Yeah, we’ve been fortunate. Two things. One, we’re disciplined. We say no to a lot of deals. So when we get one, we feel very confident in it. In those rehab numbers too, we are going to push limits, meaning we are going to do things that you’re not going to see in other houses. We’re at a point where it’s almost competing with new construction because in my opinion, new construction is pretty sterile. It might be brand new and all great, but if I can keep some of that charm from the 150 year old home or 120 year old home, there’s almost another value there to someone, especially someone born and raised here like, oh yeah, I see they kept a stained glass, they did this. That’s the original door that they refurbished. There’s a lot of value there I feel, and a lot of perceived value from the buyer’s end.

Dave:
I’m totally with you. If I was buying a home, I would love that the combination of historical architecture and a little bit of character combined with a renovated interior that’s super comfortable and up to modern standards, to me at least, that’s the best of both worlds.

Tom:
Yeah, absolutely. And I joke about this, but we spend a lot of time and effort to incorporate that, which is good. And I do feel it helps us, but we are almost over indexed that way. We will spend too much money on some things that we find really

Dave:
Cool. Yeah, I feel like you sort of get that way, but it just shows that you care that you’re into the craftsmanship element and you obviously want to do the house justice and really put it to its highest and best use

Tom:
More times than not, that’s why these things sell. There’s been a few times, there was one good example, different home, but we sold it before we were done, right? We’re at drywall, it’s probably got tile and some finishes, but we go under contract at a number. They didn’t even realize that we were taking this little cellar area and making it a wine room under the porch.

Dave:
Oh, cool.

Tom:
And we were doing stained glass with grapes and rests and all about 12 grand expense. They didn’t even realize it when we were under contract. It’s like, oh crap.

Dave:
Yeah. I mean, is that an instance of renovating that something you didn’t need to do? Clearly, but I guess it depends on the buyer. Some buyer might’ve loved it.

Tom:
Yeah, we probably could have gotten more automated. We articulated better this is going to happen. But no, you just plug in like, oh, if I do this, then why happens? There’s no straight formula for it.

Dave:
Alright, well those sounds like great deals. You, you’re getting them flipped and under a year, all the hard costs are pretty good. Obviously permit costs, soft costs, like hard. I don’t know how you finance these. Well, how do you find that some, why don’t we go into that?

Tom:
A lot of them, we have a acquisition line here, Chicago based company, Renovo. I’ll give ’em a shout out. They’re awesome. They’ve been with me since I was nobody doing my first couple deals in the south side, so been very loyal with them. We do have private investors as well. And on some of these, if we’re taking down a four unit or a six unit and gutting it a lot of times there, I can go to community banks here in the area as well.

Dave:
So at least on the flip side, you have hard money costs, you have some lending costs, you have insurance costs. I’m sure you have to pay taxes. But at the end of the day, just those high level numbers make it seem like a pretty good margin. Do you have any data on what your average profit is?

Tom:
Yeah, so we kind of have two different categories on those big, big ones right there. If you’re selling at 1.6, this is back of the knack and 1% rule type of thing.

Dave:
Sure.

Tom:
If you’re selling at one six in this market, if you can still get 10% of that rv, that’s what you’re aiming for. Some go well above, some go below. Everyone wants the answer of, okay, if I put in this and this happens, then this will be my number I sell at. The reality of the situation is they’re all moving pieces and you’re selling something a year from now. You could look at comps today, it can go in your favor or against your favor there, but those are the high end ones. And then same thing on the lower end. We have a lot of bungalows here, so we’ll buy, so we have a good example now buy something at two 20, put another two 20 into it, get out at like six 50, and those are really good numbers. That two 20 usually got to pay like two 60. That’s kind of where the numbers are. And then you add all the other costs in there. The way we look at it is floor and ceiling, and then my degree of confidence because on these bigger ones, and I think it’s important to stress this, it sounds great how much money you’re making, you need to make that amount of money.

Dave:
Totally.

Tom:
You were taking on all the risk. If that home doesn’t sell, you’re not renting it out, you are taking on all that 500 k. Rehab goes 20% over budget, that’s a hundred K out of your pocket. You have to start with these margins. These things will happen. So it’s not being greedy. It’s not like, oh look, it’s just reality. You have to have that much buffer for when, if and when it does happen.

Dave:
I completely agree, and I think it’s so important for everyone to pay attention to this. The deals that have the highest potential for return are almost always the ones that have the most risk. And as an investor, you just have to decide if that’s worth it for you. It sounds like, Tom, you’re very good at this, and so you’re willing to say, Hey, I could dispose something for 1.6 million. Hopefully my profit’s going to be 160,000, but I understand there’s a scenario where I break even on this or potentially I even lose money on it. But that’s what you get when you take big swings and hopefully you hit a lot more often than you miss. But every once in a while when you take on these big projects that have a lot of variables and a lot of things that are out of your control that sometimes they’re just not going to go as planned.

Tom:
Yeah, absolutely. One other metric we’ll look at too in the front end is just the liquidity required to do the deal. How much am I putting it on the front end? How much do I got to front too? Yes, you’re getting draws and you’re getting reimbursements, but at the lowest point of the game here, how much money am I going to be out of pocket and is that going to affect anything else I’m doing? Is the potential return on the backend going to be worth it? Is this the best use of my money? Right. That’s the question we’re answering.

Dave:
Yes, exactly. I think that’s such a good way to think about it. Just the resource allocation piece. I always give these silly examples, but if you could earn 8% with no risk or earn 15% with a ton of risk, there’s no right answer there, but that’s how you should be thinking about it. It’s not just the total return. If you’ve never heard of this term before, people listening, it’s the idea of a risk adjusted return. You can’t consider the upside without also thinking about what things could go wrong and how much volatility there is in the type of investment and the type of deal that you’re trying to do.

Tom:
Yeah, just because you ignore the downside doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. It’s there. It’s there,

Dave:
Dude. And honestly, it’s like the more you ignore it, the more likely it’s going to come and bite you in the ass, I think. Right? Because I find at least that if you think about the downside, if you’re cognizant of the risk, then you’re going to be better at mitigating that risk. If you’re like, no, no, no, it’s going to be great. You’re just admitting you have a huge blind spot and you’re not going to be able to identify things that you could do to reduce potential downsides.

Speaker 3:
Yes.

Dave:
We have to take a final break, but we’ll be back with more from the BiggerPockets Real Estate podcast after a few ads. Let’s jump back in with Tom. All right, Tom. So yeah, you mentioned this is flips, they sound great. Tell me a little bit about the rentals that you’re doing in Chicago today.

Tom:
Yeah, it’s gotten extremely competitive. So we had to keep creating, I think you guys have used the term designing deals. So whether that’s adding units, we’ve built a coach house recently. We have started, alright, how can I continue to get more income out of this property? If you have a property, whether it’s four units, six units, five units, whatever it is, but if you have that property, the property taxes, the insurance, the water besides the mortgage, all those expenses are roughly the same. So what can you do to jack up the income there? And whether that be legalizing a unit, gutting the units, there’s costs associated with that. But more times than not, because you have those set costs on the front end, putting in all that effort is usually justified, especially when you’re in the true multifamily space where they’re doing it on NOI, what can I do to just jack up the gross rent coming through the

Dave:
Door? Yeah, because I mean, for better or worse right now, prices aren’t really coming down, especially in small multifamily and big multifamily prices in some cases are going down, but the biggest way that we as investors can impact the value of a property, as Tom said, especially in commercial deals where they’re looking at net operating income is boosting rent, and there is some elements of macroeconomics there. Rents go up and down based on things that are out of our control. But you can control the things that Tom was talking about and getting creative. So I’m curious, Tom, if you’re doing these things like adding a unit, permitting something, it frankly sounds like a bunch of work. Why is it worth it to you to do that versus just flipping?

Tom:
You want to hold deals, you want to have wealth? That’s the name of the game. Flipping is so I can do this part of the game, right? Flipping is the job. It’s fun, it’s cool, but you can pull your Instagram pictures, but at the end of the day, we all want to own real estate. That’s the whole reason we’re doing this. So that’s the end game. Why is it worth it? Especially when you’re in higher end neighborhoods. If you had a unit and that unit’s paying three grand a month, that’s a big number. So yeah, it might’ve cost you 120, 150 K to get there, and it might’ve been a ton of headaches. And that return on investment is insane.

Dave:
Yeah. You’re paying that off in five years when if you’re buying something at a 5% cap rate, you’re paying that off in 20 years. Right? That’s a four times faster return on your investment just by doing that.

Tom:
Not only that, but then you’re taking that number and put a cap rate on it, take it and divide it by 0.06 or whatever the cap rate in the given area is, and your value has just multiplied exponentially.

Dave:
Yep, exactly.

Tom:
And when you go for your refi, it’s like, all right, this is great.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. And just to make sure everyone understands what we’re talking about here, if you’re not familiar, typically in commercial real estate, the value of the properties is driven by two things, the net operating income and the cap rate in the area. Net operating income is just a measurement of income. It’s basically all of your income. So your rents minus your operating expenses. It does not include CapEx or capital expenditures or your financing costs, your debt service. So that’s your net operating income. And then there’s the cap rate in the area, which is kind of complicated, but it’s basically how much an investor is willing to pay for a certain type of asset in your area. And this varies pretty dramatically based on what region you’re in, what neighborhood you’re in, what type of asset you’re looking at, the quality of the asset you’re looking at. But the example Tom gave is if you had a cap rate of 6%, what you need to do is divide the net operating income by the cap rate, and you can calculate how much more the property would be worth. So I’m just going to do this right now. You said $36,000 basically in new income, right?

Speaker 3:
Yep.

Dave:
So if you did $36,000 divided by a 6% cap rate, you just added $600,000 of value to your property, and what’d you say? It cost you 150 grand.

Tom:
You paid 150 K to do it.

Dave:
Boom. Yeah. Beautiful.

Tom:
So that deal didn’t pencil at all, but now all of a sudden you’re able to pull your money out if you’re able to finagle this and make this all happen.

Dave:
Oh, that’s such a good example. Thank you for doing that. I’m, I’m glad we got into the details of these numbers. I think it helps people understand, yeah, you’re putting 150 grand in, but you’re improving your cashflow and you’re improving the value of the property. So you could either choose to just enjoy that cashflow or you can refinance now that you have the higher valuation and do something else with that capital.

Tom:
Yeah. I think one other thing with these low cap rate markets, it works the other way against you too. Your taxes go up, everything goes up, your value can diminish. Everyone thinks like, oh, real estate, no, it can, right? The cap rate, whether you’re going the right way or the wrong way, it’s going to amplify that.

Dave:
Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. I think you have to be, again, cognizant of those risks. So it sounds really cool. Tom, I mean, I totally get this. I think that your approach to your portfolio makes a lot of sense to me. It’s similar to what I do. I don’t flip houses, but I like to have active income, working a full-time job to fuel my passive investing, buying long-term rentals. You’re doing the same thing, but you’ve gotten really good at flipping, which is a very lucrative way to earn money actively as you’re doing, and then putting it into rentals. It’s a similar idea for everyone out there. I just want people to recognize that you don’t need to flip houses if you want to buy rentals, but it is a good way to do it. It’s just a different job. Or would you agree with that, Tom?

Tom:
Absolutely. I like it. I enjoy it. It also, it’s tangent to the other stuff. It keeps me in the game. But yes, it’s the same concept of this keeps the lights on. This keeps me liquid. This allows me to go make offers on multifamily deals.

Dave:
Absolutely. So what’s next for you, Tom, as you go into 2025? What’s the plan for the portfolio?

Tom:
I don’t want this to sound like a lack of ambition, but it’s a lot of the same. There’s a bunch of shiny objects out there, right? We’re going to do this, that and the other. No real estate works. Just keep going. The stuff I’ve owned, I’ve seen it work firsthand. It’s worked hundreds of years for other people. Just stay on the track man and kind of think of things in 10 year chunks as opposed to what’s going to happen in the next three months.

Dave:
I completely agree with that. I think you come up with a goal and you just figure out what you need to do each and every year with real estate. You don’t need to be changing your strategy all the time. I think you should change your tactics based on what’s going on in the market. Similar to what you’re saying, you’re changing and becoming more creative. You’re probably changing your acquisition tactics, like the things you’re doing each and every day. You might be changing the tactics with each and every flip, but your strategy of using flipping to fund your long-term investments, does it need to change each every year? If it’s working, why would you change it?

Tom:
Yeah. You evaluate it and you make the adjustments, but you don’t need to go, you know what? I’m going to be a short-term rental guy in 2025. Nothing wrong with that, but this is working, so let’s keep growing with

Dave:
It. Absolutely. You don’t need to be chasing every little shiny object. Well, Tom, thank you so much for being here. Appreciate it. Congratulations on all your success. It sounds like you found a really great business and a way to continue to grow your portfolio and make a solid income and improve your financial position, even here in 2024. Sounds like you’ll be doing the same exact thing in 2025. If people want to connect with Tom. We’ll absolutely put all of his contact information in the show notes below. Tom, thanks again for joining us.

Tom:
Alright, awesome. Thanks, Dave. Been a pleasure.

Dave:
And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast for BiggerPockets. I’m Dave Meyer. We’ll see you next time.

Help Us Out!

Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

In This Episode We Cover:

  • “Value-add” real estate investing explained and why it still works in 2024
  • Knowing your neighborhood “class” and why Tom switched from C to A
  • How Tom is making six-figure profits on house flips even in today’s market
  • Real estate partnerships and the skillsets you need to build a profitable flipping/rental/rehab business
  • How to get real estate agents to send you properties BEFORE they hit the market
  • Using short-term projects (flips!) to fund your rental property portfolio
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Buying Her First Rental (on a Teacher’s Wage) by Looking Beyond Her Backyard

Do you want to buy your first rental property but can’t find affordable real estate in your area? You’re not alone! As a science teacher living in New York City, Lauren Mattina was priced out of her own market. But a simple move helped her find a cash-flowing property and brought her one step closer to financial freedom, and YOU could do the same!

Welcome back to the Real Estate Rookie podcast! Lauren never had a high-paying job, but she knew that real estate investing could give her the option of early retirement. So, she continued living below her means and saved for her first property. With NYC out of the question, she turned her attention to Oklahoma City, where she found, bought, rehabbed, and rented out her first single-family home!

Are you being priced out of your own backyard? In this episode, Lauren will show you the steps she took to choose an out-of-state market, analyze her first deal, and build an out-of-state investing team. You’ll learn the secret to overcoming analysis paralysis, how to properly vet a property manager, and how to get your offers accepted in a hot market!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Ashley:
Today we’re diving into the world of real estate with someone who’s just getting started. But don’t let that fool you with only one property under her belt. She’s a true rookie, yet she’s already picking up invaluable lessons that all of us can learn from whether you’re new to investing or looking for that push to finally get started, this episode is packed with takeaways for everyone. This is the Real Estate Rookie podcast. I’m Ashley Kehr, and sadly not joined by my wonderful co-host, Tony j Robinson. But he’s busy being a real estate investor this week, and we will have him back soon. But anyways, welcome to the podcast where every week, three times a week, we bring you the inspiration, motivation, and stories you need to kickstart your investing journey. So let’s give a big welcome to Lauren Mattina.

Lauren:
Thank you so much for having me. I’m so excited to be here.

Ashley:
Lauren, I should have asked, is that how you say your last name?

Lauren:
Yes. Nailed it.

Ashley:
Okay. Okay. I am always so nervous that I usually always ask or have Tony just say someone’s last name. Okay. Okay. So welcome Lauren. Today we’re going to be discussing how to select an out of state market and how to analyze your first deal as a rookie. So let’s get right into it. Lauren, before you bought your first investment property, kind of give us an idea of what your life looked like. Were you working a W2 job? Give us that overview.

Lauren:
Yeah, so I was an MA science teacher here in New York City. I live in Staten Island, New York, which is, if you don’t know, one of the five boroughs of New York City. So very high cost of living area. And before that I was a zookeeper, so I was never in a job where I was making tons of money and had tons of disposable income, but made it work. We made it, we figured it out. So I’m excited to share kind of how we did that.

Ashley:
Yeah, awesome. And then why did you decide on real estate as that path that was going to give you more income and build wealth for you?

Lauren:
Yeah, so I think my big why for this kind of went back a couple years ago, my dad was a lawyer, he had his own law firm and he did a lot of landlord tenant work. So I was really scarred from that actually. I knew I never wanted to be a landlord in New York City because oh, it was awful. So that scared me from starting. So I didn’t start until my thirties really. But then he had a big health scare and I just thought to myself, this is someone who worked like a dog their whole life. He worked so much and I felt like he should have had more to show for it at that point in his life and should have had more cushion when he did get sick. So I was like, you know what? I don’t want to be in that position and I want to be able to retire early if I choose to. So this way I’m not forced to retire maybe in my mid sixties and now I don’t have my health. So I really started thinking about, okay, what can I do to get some more passive income, just build up my wealth? And I started looking at stocks and I did a lot of work there, read a lot of books there. But then naturally I just feel like real estate kind of follows when you start digging into that stuff.

Ashley:
So what did you decide on for your first strategy when getting into real estate?

Lauren:
I decide on when I think a lot of people go. So I did a single family rental, buy and hold. It seems like the safest to do. That’s where most people start. So that’s where I started and definitely may not stay there, but that’s okay. So went out state, totally out of state. I ended up in Oklahoma City, a three bed, two bath home and bought it conventionally. I’m pretty risk adverse. I was like, this seems pretty safe, let’s go this route. And it was fine. It was definitely a base hit, not that home run, but it’s what got me started and I’m really happy I did it.

Ashley:
So you mentioned you did conventional for this first property, how did you save? Was it 20% and what are some tips so that somebody else could save 20% down for an investment property?

Lauren:
So I actually ended up doing 25%, which I will probably never do that again, but I’ve always lived below my means. I’ve always been a saver from the beginning. So if you’re going to get into real estate, you really have to make sure that you are good with your finances first, you have an understanding of what money’s coming in, where your money’s going. And so have a strict budget and you need to start exploring options. So instead of money sitting in a savings account, a regular savings account, you should be in a high yield, you should have money in maybe like a Roth or something else long term, but just growing somewhere. And so even as a zookeeper, I was literally making $1,100 a month in my early twenties. I was still able to save up $20,000 just by living below my means. I still have an iPhone seven with a home button. I get made fun of all the time, but you know what, it’s paid off. So

Ashley:
I have to ask, was this in New York City that you were living still on $1,100 salary and living for cheap?

Lauren:
That was in Greenwich, Connecticut, which is also pretty costly.

Ashley:
Yeah. Yeah. That’s amazing. And I just want to highlight that is it is possible to save money and invest in real estate. You may have to make some lifestyle changes if you don’t think it’s possible for you right now to live below your means. And that may be moving to another house to decrease your living expenses or house hacking, renting out a bedroom. But continuously, there’s stories that are coming out and we actually just had somebody that I interviewed yesterday that literally said, I did it the boring way. I saved up money for a down payment and I bought it with a loan. There was no creative strategy of how I got in there, but that is literally the easiest way to get into it is to going path. But it is hard. It is hard to change your spending habits for sure. And definitely tracking. So do you track your expenses now? And what do you use to do that?

Lauren:
So I really just use, there’s so many great resources out there from Rachel Richards has some really good spreadsheets. So a lot of people offer these for free on Instagram and just online. Allie and Josh Lupo, the PHI couple have a great one, tracks net worth and everything, but every week, so I started doing every month with my husband and I. We would sit down and I was like, too much time goes by. If you made a mistake, you don’t catch something in a month has gone by. So we upped it to every week, every Sunday morning, we have a fun breakfast and then we sit down and we do that. And I learned that from reading Atomic Habits because they’re like, if it’s something you don’t love doing, which he doesn’t, my husband does not love doing the budget. We try to make it more fun by having an nice pancake breakfast beforehand. And so he tends to look forward to it more.

Ashley:
Yeah, yeah, that’s such a great idea. Okay, so let’s move into your deal. So you decided to invest out of state. Let’s do a little rapid fire here to kind of get a background on the deal, but what was the market again?

Lauren:
Oklahoma City.

Ashley:
Okay. And what was the purchase price?

Lauren:
1 65

Ashley:
And then it was a two bed, one bath, single family,

Lauren:
Three bed, two bath.

Ashley:
Three bed. Two bath. Okay. And did you do any rehab or renovation on this property?

Lauren:
Of course. And of course it was more than we thought, but ended up putting about 15,000 into it.

Ashley:
And then what did you end up renting the property out for?

Lauren:
So I rented it for 1500 and then they just renewed my tenants for 1550 after a year.

Ashley:
And what was your all in cost with the down payment, closing costs and the renovation, that 15,000,

Lauren:
It was about 62,000.

Ashley:
Okay. And what is your cashflow on that property?

Lauren:
This is why I call it a base hit and not really like a home run. For rookies out there listening, please make sure your cashflow is after you pay your property manager, after you take out your reserves, then what’s left is your cashflow all said and done. It’s probably like a hundred a 50 left, not huge. And I don’t touch that money at all, so I’m just really shoving it all into reserves for right now. But everything’s covered. Yeah,

Ashley:
That’s exactly what I did. Starting out, it was just a little bit of cashflow on the property and then after a little bit, I literally just used it to pay down my student loan debt and that was it. I didn’t touch it for so long, even now I reinvest it. But that’s such a great mindset to have as in you’re not going to increase your lifestyle by that 150 and just spend it. It’s like, Ooh, we got one extra dinner this month. How much a dinner for two costs about these days. But having that mindset of this is wealth building that you are not trying to use that cashflow right now or get into a property where you can quit your W2 job after buying two houses or something like that. This is where I think there’s a big misconception that you can go and buy coupled duplexes and yeah, there are people that have gotten these amazing deals and properties where they cashflow a thousand dollars with no money into the deal and they hit that home run. But you want to go into real estate, you got to have that expectation of you’re going to need money to have reserves and there will be unexpected costs where it’s nice to save that little bit of cashflow and not depend on it and rely on it too.

Lauren:
Absolutely. Yeah. I’m not leaving teaching anytime soon with this cashflow.

Ashley:
Stay tuned after a break from more with Lauren. If you’re hoping to invest remotely, you’ll need a team to help manage your properties. Go to biggerpockets.com/teams to learn more. Okay, welcome back to the show. We’re joined by Lauren. What is the value of the property now once you went in and rehabbed it?

Lauren:
So I never got it. It’s like I’m not going to do anything with it in the near future, but I see things here and there on stream and Zillow about the value, and so it ranges from 180 5 to 200,000, so it’s okay, but like I said, I’m not really doing anything with it. I might eventually pull something out of it or rent to own it. We’ll see. But it’s definitely in a neighborhood in the path to progress. So I only imagine that’s going to go up

Ashley:
And you’re getting mortgage pay down by your tenant, paying down the debt and some appreciation.

Lauren:
Yeah, I love watching that net worth grow every week. It’s amazing.

Ashley:
And tracking your net worth is also something everyone should be doing. Okay, so let’s talk about the rehab on this property. So what was that like doing it out of state? Kind of walk us through that whole process.

Lauren:
So I did end up flying out there for the closing. I knew I wanted to just get eyes on the market myself once at least.

Ashley:
Did you see the property beforehand at all or that was your first time?

Lauren:
Just through video. Video and pictures. So I literally fell out there for closing. I was like, well, I’m past my due diligence period. It’s not like I can really back out for any small reason now. So I really just, this is it. And I brought my husband out there and so we closed on a Thursday night and then went back to the property and slept there for a few days while we did some work on it. We literally flew out with one suitcase. We had an air mattress in it, so we were really rough in it for a few days, but it was really fun. So it was like noon morning to night. We were working on that property. So everything we could do ourselves, we did. But beforehand I had vetted some contractors and I ultimately ended up going with one that my realtor had recommended. So right from the beginning, she had sent me a list when she first reached out to me about all these people she works with from lenders to property managers. So I had a nice list to work off of, but I spoke to at least three of every type of person just to make sure I also felt comfortable with them.

Ashley:
I think that’s really great that your agent gave you several options instead of just like, this is the guy I use, you have to use him and kind of push him on you, giving you the selection to choose.

Lauren:
It was a little scary because when I met my property manager, she did not like that contractor. She’s like, oh my God, you’re going with him? And I was like, oh no, please, I already sent him a first amount. Don’t scare me. But it ended up being fine. The work was great. I didn’t love the lack of communication, which I know I hear a lot of people have that issue. And so I think next time I have to set up a little bit more expectation on my end. How often are we communicating? What pictures are you sending? How am I not verifying that work is being done? But yeah, ultimately it did get done. I did have to replace the plumbing, which I was not expecting, but it was okay.

Ashley:
And that’s why it’s important to have reserves of before you’ve even purchased the property and close on it, making sure you have that money in place instead of relying on just the cashflow to build up your reserves. Because at that point when you’re doing the rehab and that cost comes up, you don’t even have a tenant yet that’s paying rent that you could take some of that money from the investing out of state. So you talked, there’s a little bit of miscommunication between, or not miscommunication, but lack of communication between you and your contractor. But how did you even decide on doing out of state and why did you select your market?

Lauren:
Yeah, so definitely out of state, because I had mentioned earlier I was just scarred about being a landlord in New York City. I knew that was not going to happen. So since I was young, I knew that was just not even an option. So I always knew I was going to go out of state. And then I started, my big thing was I liked to bounce ideas off of people, so I knew that I needed to get a mentor. And so probably February, 2023, I was in the BiggerPockets Rookie Bootcamp. And so I was learning, it was actually you and Tyler Madden doing that one. So I loved it. And then right when that ended, I hired a coach. And so it was one-on-one, which was amazing.

Lauren:
She helped me a lot with the market research where I was really getting that analysis paralysis. We made it into chunk size bites week by week, what I was doing. But we really started with like, okay, what are the red states? They pretty landlord friendly. BiggerPockets also puts out a lot of articles about top 10 landlord friendly states and stuff. So just take all that stuff in and all that information and then you’re looking at population growth was big for me. Make sure people are moving to the area and not leaving in droves year over year price to rent ratio, big things like that. Top four job markets in the area. If it’s just one and that company leaves, it can become the next Flint, Michigan, Detroit. So you want to make sure that you have enough jobs and people in the area. We did that and I kept narrowing down and I had a short list of five, then three, and eventually I was just like, you know what? Everyone’s in Ohio, I want to try something different. Let’s go Oklahoma City.

Ashley:
And it’s working out for you so far.

Lauren:
So far so good. Yeah,

Ashley:
I think that’s a great way to select a market is to look at something that’s important to you, like you started out with what’s an investor friendly state. Narrowing down from there, you can also go and look at where other people are investing or go to biggerpockets.com/resources and there’s market selection data there and see, okay, what’s the recommended here? But always verify because what someone else is doing or what the data says, it may not actually work for what your strategy is. So one market may be great for cashflow, but it may be very heavy intensive as to managing tenants and dilapidated properties and things like that. Or it’s more better for flipping than actually having a rental. So paying attention to what is actually important to you in not just following what someone else did because it worked for them too. So once you selected your market, how did you find your deal and how did you find your real estate agent too?

Lauren:
So I found my real estate agent actually on BiggerPockets. I did a lot. I found my original CPA there. So yeah, I reached out to a few on BiggerPockets and talked to a few of them as well. So my mentor and I was working with her for about five months. She, she pretty much bought all her properties on the MLS for 10 years. And then looking back, that’s definitely a big thing I learned, lesson learned is you really want to vet your mentors as well. And when you’re first getting into it, you may not know how to vet a mentor, which is what I knew I needed to. But then I realized after the fact I didn’t really know how to vet a real estate mentor. So I would definitely talk to someone who has done mentorships and ask them, how did you vet the mentor? What did you wish you knew beforehand? And things like that because she bought all her properties on the MLS, which was fine. It ended up working okay for me, but long-term, that’s not going to be the strategy I want to use. So I probably should have looked for someone who does off-market deals, maybe doesn’t buy with 20, 25% down conventionally lessons learned right first time in it. But yeah. So we brought on the MLS.

Ashley:
Why do you want to make that transition from MLS to off market and talk about why you wouldn’t want to do 20 to 25% down again?

Lauren:
So yeah, when you’re buying on market, have a lot of people to pay including those real estate agents. So that’s just another cost you have to keep in mind and write, underwrite basically with the property you find a lot better deals off market. It is harder to find them, it takes more work to find them, but they typically end up being a better return on investment. So whether you do it creatively or just whatnot, it’s just usually better numbers altogether. And I do talk to a lot of sellers now who have listings on market and they are the most difficult people to talk to. Even if they have had it listed for five months and not a single offer, a lot of them aren’t budging. I often hear, I know what my house is worth, and I’m like, well, it’s worth what someone’s willing to pay for it, but okay, so it’s going to be a lot tougher conversations with people listed on market too.

Ashley:
And what was the offering for you with this property that you did purchase on the MLS? Were you competing with other people and did you have to negotiate at all?

Lauren:
Yes, it was very, I don’t know if it still is because I haven’t bought there in this last year, but summer, spring of 2023, it was a very competitive market there and I had put in about five offers. This was my fifth property. I put an offer on and we’re like, you know what? Let’s try a different approach with this offer. My realtor and I sat down, even my lender, we talked altogether, what is going to make this the most competitive offer? So we just straight up offer what they’re asking. No contingencies, no nothing. We had put a lot of that in the previous offers and it just sometimes the more complicated the offer just scares sellers off. So she’s like, you always have your due diligence period to go ahead and put that stuff in and come back and ask for these things. So come in with a clean straight offer. And despite all the other offers on the table, they chose ours.

Ashley:
Wow, that’s awesome. What was the emotion like when that happened?

Lauren:
Absolute terror. Totally terrifying. I was like, oh my god, it’s actually happening now.

Ashley:
That’s it. When you get that first property under contract, it is that mix of excitement but also terror at the same time. Oh my god, this is real now.

Lauren:
Yeah, I basically told everyone I knew. I was like, don’t talk to me for the next 10 days. I have due diligence. I need to figure this out.

Ashley:
Speaking of due diligence, I just did a rookie YouTube video. We’re doing a new series on the real estate rookie YouTube channel called Rookie Resources where we’re giving stuff out like a due diligence checklist, a closing checklist and things like that too. So if anyone is getting ready to close on their first property and make sure that you go and check out those new YouTube videos. We’re going to take one more final ad break and then we’ll jump back in with Lauren. Okay. Welcome back. Okay, so building your team. You’ve mentioned several people that you have found. What would be your advice for someone that is also looking to build a team, whether it’s in their area or out of state?

Lauren:
So I definitely got a lot of interview questions from people who were already in real estate and some of it was from my coach, some of it was from just people passing things along. You definitely want to get questions to ask these team members from people who have been in real estate because there are just some things you don’t even know about that you should be asking about. The saying goes, you don’t know what you don’t know, so try to pull on your network as much as you can. So go to meetups and go to things beforehand. Before you’re buying. You should be going to meetups and meeting people, doing what you’re doing and even beyond. So talk to at least three to five of every type of person. And it’s scary. I don’t like talking on the phone, I really don’t. So I literally have to pump myself up before making these phone calls. But afterwards, you feel so good. You’re like, I did that and now I have this information, and you just feel more confident moving forward.

Ashley:
And then property management, you mentioned having a property manager, so I’m assuming you’re not self-managing. Walk us through that process of what it was hiring and kind of what the agreement is for them, what they take care of.

Lauren:
So their agreement is really simple, which was almost very scary. It was like something I’m missing here, but I spoke to a few people. Some people took my phone calls in the middle of the day checking out at the grocery store, and so immediately I was checking them off my list. It’s just not professional. That’s important to me. So I was like, okay, nope. So the people who actually took the time to talk to me were shot to the top of my list. I also liked that they really didn’t have any hidden fees at all. I kept asking, well what about this? What if this happens? Because so many property managers will have these little hidden fees that’s not just a 10% a month that you’re paying them, but so many other things. And so my property manager only charges half the first month’s rent when they find a tenant.

Ashley:
So they’re leasing fee?

Lauren:
Yeah, many charge a full month’s rent. They also, if you have two or more properties with them, they drop from 10% a month to 8% a month.

Ashley:
Oh wow. That’s a significant,

Lauren:
Yeah, I want to get that second property now. So there was a lot of good things. And also if we feel like it’s not working out between the two of us, we just have a 30 day notice we can get out of the contract. And that was also important for me too. It was like I don’t want to be stuck in something a year, two years long if I’m not happy with it.

Ashley:
And then what about the maintenance side of things? Are they taking care of the maintenance? Do they have their own maintenance crew? Do they have a spending limit where they have to get approval for you over a certain amount?

Lauren:
And these are all questions I ask them too, so definitely make sure you guys are asking them this. They always email me before really any work is done unless it’s an emergency, no heat in the winter, which has not happened thankfully, but they’ll always get approval for me beforehand, no matter how small or large it may seem, which I do appreciate that even though every time I see an email come from them, I’m like, oh no, it’s like a gut punch. But no, I really do appreciate the communication with that. And they do have their own handyman and maintenance team, but like I mentioned earlier, I had replaced all the plumbing when I did my renovations. So when the tenant just came back a couple of weeks ago saying there was a little issue with the plumbing, the flow was really low. So you know what, let me call my plumber instead who did the work because it’s probably still under warranty. And I did and they fixed it. And so instead of having to pay for their plumber to go out, I was able to save a little money doing it that way.

Ashley:
And then so they take care of the whole leasing process for you. Did they actually have you review applications?

Lauren:
I did tell them a couple of deal breakers I had beforehand the credit score, how long they’ve been in their W2 job or whatever is at least three months of pay stubs, a six 50 or higher credit scores, what I wanted. And then they’re like, yep, that pretty much lines up with what we already do. I made sure I liked their process and then I just let them handle it.

Ashley:
That’s the nicest way is when it’s taken care of, but you’re so informed and they will also listen to what some of your expectations are as long as it’s not overly demanding. I’ve been a owner for a property management company and I will never take on clients now that I have my own property management company just because of how I was. I would never want somebody that needy and want to know that information and want things done their way. Okay, so this property now, what is next? So you’re going to get that decrease to 8% property management. So is Oklahoma the next stop again or do you have somewhere else in mind?

Lauren:
Yeah, I would like to get a second property in Oklahoma. I also would like to just add a second market. I think it’s also good just to have a second market in case one slows down. The market is very city neighborhood specific, so you may look at the news headlines and think one thing’s happening in all the markets in the us but it’s really, really specific down to the local markets. So I think it’s always good to have two. So I’ll probably end up branching out into Cleveland at some point. I know a lot of investors in Cleveland, I’m involved in a lot of group chats with them, so I have a lot of resources there, but I want that 8% drop in my property management fee. So I’ll probably focus on Oklahoma City first and I would like to eventually transition to doing some midterm rentals

Ashley:
And what is the plan financially to purchase that second property and what’s kind of the timeline for that.

Lauren:
So I did something, I was actually inspired by you and Tony when I started listening to this podcast a long time ago when you both, and correct me if I’m wrong, really started getting into real estate. One of the ways you started was you started working for someone and I think you worked for a property management company, right?

Ashley:
Yeah, yeah, definitely. So my property manager for my short-term rentals, she’s a physical therapist, but she started working for me just managing the few short-term rentals I have. She kind of built out my systems and my software and everything. And then she ended up getting another job working for a larger short-term rental company, and she’s their lead manager in a resort destination by us for skiing and snowboarding. And so it’s just so cool to see how she actually kind of had a similar path to you. She started out in investing out of state in Indiana. She bought a single family home there conventional, and then since then she’s bought a couple more apartments. But yeah, it’s just awesome and what she’s been able to learn working part-time is just like a side job doing the management of the short-term rentals.

Lauren:
Yeah, it’s amazing what you can learn from other people, so don’t count that out. That’s a huge, huge win.

Ashley:
And I have to say too, when I started out knowing that when I worked as a property manager having that, it just gave me a little bit more confidence. That’s what I was so confident about was I knew I could get a tenant in there. I knew what I could charge for the rent because it was the same market that I was managing in. I knew the leases, I knew exactly what to do to manage it was the thing that scared me was like, oh my god, what if the furnace breaks the day after we close or the roof blows off and now I have a $20,000 expense? So that was the things that I was nervous about, but I was really confident at least in that property management portion, which I think really gave me the momentum to actually get started in real estate or else it probably would’ve been a lot longer before I found that confidence.

Lauren:
You’ll never be confident in every aspect when you’re starting, right? So if you can be confident in one and that’s enough to get you into it, I think that’s amazing.

Ashley:
Before we wrap up here, what would be one last piece of advice that you would give to a rookie investor who’s listening to this thinking, I want to get my first property?

Lauren:
I would say definitely get a mentor. That would be my biggest thing. Get a mentor, vet them, or if not, work for them. But to me that’s been the biggest thing that has propelled me and my understanding of how to buy properties for the next one. So get a mentor, it will kick you out of that analysis paralysis, and you’ll be held accountable so you can’t just sit on the sidelines anymore.

Ashley:
Yeah, I love that advice and just learning from someone, especially if you’re working for them, you’re getting paid while you learn too, so that’s even better. Well, Lauren, thank you so much for joining us and Lauren talks a lot about teams. So if you’re looking for team members, you can go to biggerpockets.com/teams and you can find your property manager, your lender, your agent, everything you need to get your first or next real estate deal. If you want to learn more about Lauren, we’re going to link her information into the show notes and you can also find it in the description on YouTube. Thank you guys so much for joining us. I am Ashley, and we’ll see you on the next episode of Real Estate Rookie.

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • How Lauren bought her first rental property (on a teacher’s salary)
  • Analyzing rental properties (and markets) as a complete beginner
  • How to find up-and-coming, out-of-state markets to invest in
  • The number one thing that will help you overcome analysis paralysis
  • The “rule of three” to follow when building your real estate investing team
  • How to make your offers more enticing in a competitive market
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

The Problem With Cash for Retirement Planning—And How Real Estate Solves It

“I saved up a million dollars—and all I got was this lousy $40,000 a year.”

That’s the metaphorical T-shirt that the average retiree wears. 

Actually, it’s worse than that. The average retiree aged between 65 and 74 doesn’t have a million dollars saved as a nest egg. They have $609,230, and that’s the mean average, not the median. You can be sure the median is a lot lower. 

Based on the traditional 4% rule, the average retiree takes an annual income of just $24,369 from that nest egg. Don’t blow the party kazoos all at once. 

All this means that the traditional retirement model just doesn’t work well. To put it bluntly, the math sucks. 

I can do better—and so can you. 

The Root of Paper Assets’ Problem: Volatility

Over the long term, stocks perform pretty well as an asset class. The S&P 500 has averaged around a 10% annual return over the last century. 

But “average” doesn’t mean “stable,” “dependable,” or “predictable.” In some years (and decades), it’s performed atrociously, losing massive amounts of money. 

When Bill Bengen first developed the 4% rule back in the 1990s, he did it by looking back at stock and bond returns over every 30-year period in modern history. He honed in on the worst 30-year stretches over that time and calculated how much retirees could have withdrawn in the first year of retirement without draining their nest egg over those bad 30-year stretches. (There was more to it than that, but you don’t want to read a treatise on economic theory.)

The bottom line: He determined that 4% is a safe withdrawal rate based on worst-case scenarios. Retirees who withdraw 4% of their nest egg in the first year of retirement and adjust upward by the inflation amount each year thereafter have almost no risk of running out of money over a 30-year retirement (assuming historical returns continue playing out).  

The Result for Most Retirees: Oversaving

Think about that: Retirees earn an average of 10% each year on their stocks but only withdraw 4%. 

To avoid any risk of running out of money, retirees plan for the absolute worst-case scenario. This means most of them die with far more money than they actually need. 

I don’t want to hustle and scrimp to save up a million dollars just to earn a measly $40,000 on it. I’m guessing you don’t either.

How Real Estate Can Help

In our real estate investment club at SparkRental, we meet and review different passive investments every month. We aim to earn 10% to 12% interest on real estate debt investments and 15%+ annual returns on our equity investments. 

We collect the interest in real-time every month. The returns on real estate equity investments are a combination of income (distributions) and eventual profits upon sale. 

“Yeah, but what about the risk on those investments? Don’t high returns come with high risk?”

Not necessarily. In fact, there’s a term in finance for investments with high returns and low risk: asymmetric returns. Experienced real estate investors know what I’m talking about. 

Ask someone who has flipped 300 homes about the risk in their flipping returns. Actually, I did. The operator responded, “Our win rate for flips is between 93%-95%. Occasionally, one misses because you can’t foresee every problem. But when you do 70-90 flips a year like we do, the profit averages are inevitable.” 

Our Co-Investing Club invested with that operator for a note paying 10% interest. The note is backed by a personal guarantee from a multimillionaire, a corporate guarantee from his company that owns over $15 million in real estate, and a first-position lien under 50% LTV. 

Does that sound like a high-risk investment? 

A retiree could live on that 10% income (as part of a diverse portfolio, of course). And that changes the math for retirement. Instead of saving up $1 million to generate $40,000 in income, you’d only need to save $400,000. 

Avoiding Sequence of Returns Risk

The greatest risk from stocks comes from a market crash right after you retire. If a crash occurs too early in your retirement, you end up selling off too many stocks while prices are low, and then there’s not enough left to recover your portfolio even after stocks start climbing again. 

Finance nerds call this “sequence of returns risk:” The timing of crashes matters just as much as your long-term average returns. 

You can avoid it by simply not selling off stocks if a crash happens early in your retirement. That means you need enough to live on from other sources for the first few years of retirement in the event of a bear market. 

My Approach: Real Estate for Now, Stocks for Late Life and Legacy

You get it: Stocks make for great long-term investments, but you can’t predict what they’ll do in any given year. I can tell you with near certainty that my stock investments will have done great in 30 years from now, but I couldn’t tell you how they’ll do over the next three years. 

I’ll feel comfortable selling off stocks later in my life to cover my living expenses. And they’ll make a straightforward inheritance for my daughter when I kick the bucket. But I also want to build predictable passive income and wealth in the short- and medium term. 

Our Co-Investing Club invests in a mix of private partnerships, notes, debt funds, equity funds, and real estate syndications. Some pay strong income right away, such as the note outlined. We just invested in a land-flipping fund that pays 16% annualized income. 

Most of the syndications pay solid distributions each quarter, with a cash-on-cash return between 4%-8%. Some will sell to cash out our profits over the next few years; others will refinance to return our initial capital while continuing to pay us distributions. A few growth-oriented investments don’t pay distributions for the first year or two. 

The end result: I don’t worry about “safe withdrawal rates” or the 4% rule. I earn higher returns than that now, in real-time. 

And by “now,” that includes the not-so-strong market we’re living in at this moment. The last two years have been a bear for many real estate investors—and we’re still doing well. Imagine how you can do in a decent market. 

The Trick: Avoiding Downside Risk

When we look at investments together as a club, we hone in on downside risk. 

There’s no shortage of real estate investments promising 15%+ returns. But some of them come with high risk, and others with low or moderate risk. 

If you want to build a portfolio that you can live on, seek out that extra downside risk protection. From there, your retirement planning opens up in a way that people following the 4% rule can only envy.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

6 Creative Ways to Cover Your Kids’ College Costs with Real Estate

When you start them early enough, your investments can perform shocking feats of strength. They can even keep pace with the runaway cost of college tuition—which has more than doubled since 2000. The average cost of private college tuition and fees has reached $38,768, according to the Education Data Initiative, and you can expect that to keep skyrocketing between now and when your little one reaches college age. 

Fortunately, real estate can help. Try these creative approaches to paying for your kids’ college education so you can stop worrying and start getting excited about your children’s university years. 

1. Let Your Tenants Pay for Tuition

Imagine that the year your child is born, you buy a rental property for $360,000 and put down 20% on it. You borrow the rest ($300,000) with a 30-year mortgage at 6% interest. 

Here’s how the next 18 years of property equity look:

(Insert chart here: Property Equity Over 18 Years (30-Year Loan))

After 18 years, you now have $554,870 in equity. That’s a tidy sum to pay for tuition, hopefully with plenty left over to go toward your retirement. 

Your tenants have paid down your mortgage balance even as your property has appreciated in value. I assumed a 4% annual appreciation rate. For context, U.S. home prices appreciated an average of 4.8% annually from 1987-2023

Oh, and that says nothing of your cash flow. Your rents have risen alongside inflation, even as your mortgage payments remained fixed. Your rental property should be paying a princely sum each month by now. It probably cash flows so well that you won’t want to sell or refinance it.

If you want to get even more aggressive with paying down your loan balance, you could buy with a 15-year mortgage. Just beware that your cash flow will take a hit. Here’s that chart, too:

(Insert chart here: Property Equity Over 18 Years (15-Year Loan))

2. BRRRR: One Down Payment to Rule Them All

If you wanted to get more aggressive with your rental strategy, you could follow the BRRRR strategy (buy, renovate, rent, refinance, repeat). The idea is that you force equity through renovation, then refinance to pull your initial down payment back out. 

In the example, you still had to plop down $60,000 plus closing costs—no trivial amount. Imagine instead that you buy that property’s run-down neighbor for $240,000, put $50,000 into renovating it, and borrow the same $300,000 mortgage. 

You end up with all the same long-term numbers for appreciation and rental cash flow. But now you don’t have a penny tied up in the property. You can reinvest that money in stocks, syndications, or more rental properties. 

In fact, you could repeat the same BRRRR process indefinitely to generate infinite returns. Because there’s technically no limit on how many times you can recycle and reinvest the same capital, there’s technically no limit on your returns. 

3. Infinite Returns on Real Estate Syndications

The BRRRR strategy comes with a huge drawback: It requires a lot of labor. Sure, you can get your money back out of each property, but your time? That’s gone forever as a less visible but no less real part of your investment in each property. 

Some passive real estate syndications follow a similar strategy, just on a far larger scale. A syndicator buys a dilapidated apartment complex, renovates and repositions it as a higher-end property, and leases the units for much higher rents. They then refinance it and return passive investors’ initial capital—but all the passive investors retain their ownership interest. 

In other words, you and I get our money back, which we can reinvest elsewhere. But we also keep collecting cash flow from the original property. 

Many syndications target annualized returns in the mid-teens or higher. Here’s how your investments would compound over 18 years if you invested $5,000 per month at 15% returns:

(Insert chart here: 15% Compounding Returns on $5K/month)

“Uh, don’t most syndications require a minimum investment of $50,000-$100,000?” 

They do indeed—if you invest by yourself. That’s why I don’t. Our Co-Investing Club meets every month to vet deals together, and members (including me) can go in on them together with $5,000 or more. I use it as a form of dollar-cost averaging, a way to consistently invest more manageable amounts each month in high-performance real estate investments. 

And the math shifts even more to your favor when you get your principal back to reinvest again and again. But that’s messier to project forward into the future, so we’ll leave the graph at the standard compounding rate. 

Besides, we invest in other types of passive real estate investments, such as private partnerships, private notes, debt funds, and more. Infinite returns sound great on paper, but I’m more interested in finding asymmetric returns

4. Flip Houses with Your Teens

As your kids get closer to college, you can involve them in paying for their own higher education. 

Flip a few houses with them. The profits from each house you flip could cover the cost of tuition for a year or more. 

Even better, your teen will learn real-life skills such as forecasting ROI, negotiating, budgeting for projects, managing contractors, navigating bureaucracy such as permits and inspectors, and home improvement. 

And maybe they’ll actually show up for those 8 a.m. classes if they helped pay for them by swinging a hammer and sweating all summer. 

5. Kiddie Condo House Hacking

It turns out there’s a loophole for owner-occupied mortgage financing: Your adult children can satisfy the occupancy requirement. 

That means you can buy student housing for them and their roommates with a primary residence loan. And their roommates can cover the mortgage payment for you, removing the need for either you or your child to pay for housing. 

Again, your kids can learn some real-life skills, such as property management. Just make sure you only partner with them if you can trust them to manage an asset worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

When they graduate, you can decide whether to keep the property as a rental or sell it and hopefully walk away with some profits. 

6. Roth IRA Real Estate Investments

Roth IRAs offer more flexibility than any other retirement account. You can withdraw contributions at any time, penalty- and tax-free. You can even withdraw earnings early if you put them toward qualified education expenses, such as:

  • Tuition and fees
  • Books and other school supplies
  • Equipment required for attendance
  • The cost of special needs related to attendance

Imagine you invest in passive real estate investments for those 15% returns in the chart through a self-directed IRA. After 18 years, you decide you have enough to spare to help your kids with tuition—and so you do, tax-free. 

Just make sure you actually can spare it. Your kids have dozens of ways to pay for college. You only have one way to pay for retirement. 

Look Into Creative Combinations of Real Estate Investments

You can mix and match all these strategies, like Lego sets, to build an education fund. And these are just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. 

Have you considered house hacking your own residence? You don’t necessarily need to move into a multifamily or bring in a housemate—my cofounder at SparkRental and her husband hosted a foreign exchange student, and the stipend covered most of their mortgage payment. Or you could add an ADU. Or you could rent out some or all of your home as a short-term rental, perhaps even when you’re not using it. 

As mentioned, it helps if your kids have some skin in the game. Make them contribute in some way, and make your help contingent upon performance. That could mean a minimum GPA or some other metric to make sure they don’t take your help for granted. 

Get creative with paying for college with real estate. It doesn’t have to take a huge bite out of your net worth, but it does require advanced planning, thoughtful strategizing, and clean execution.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.