Bigger. Better. Bolder. Inman Connect is heading to San Diego. Join thousands of real estate pros, connect with the Inman Community, and gain insights from hundreds of leading minds shaping the industry. If you’re ready to grow your business and invest in yourself, this is where you need to be. Go BIG in San Diego!

Mortgage rates surged Monday after Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating over concerns that “successive U.S. administrations” and Congress have failed to tackle the nation’s annual budget deficits and growing interest costs.

With Republicans poised to extend tax cuts implemented during the first Trump administration — and with mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare and interest payments on U.S. debt also expected to rise — Moody’s downgraded the U.S.’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa.

“This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” Moody’s analysts said.

TAKE THE INMAN INTEL SURVEY FOR MAY

The downgrade represented “a major symbolic move” since the other major rating agencies had already stripped the U.S. of its top credit rating, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients.

The announcement — made minutes before bond markets closed Friday — helped drive rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages up seven basis points Monday, to 6.99 percent, according to data tracked by Mortgage News Daily.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a barometer for mortgage rates, briefly touched a high of 4.56 percent Monday, up 17 basis points from Friday’s low of 4.39 percent.

Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the downgrade by Moody’s and other agencies as a “lagging indicator,” and pointed the finger of blame at the Biden administration.

“We didn’t get here in the past 100 days — it’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years,” Bessent told NBC’s Kristen Welker. “We inherited a 6.7 percent deficit relative to GDP — the highest when we weren’t in a recession or not in a war — and we are determined to bring the spending down and grow the economy.”

Welker pointed out that the first Trump administration added $8 trillion to the nation’s debt, which economists attribute to 2017 tax cuts and a surge in spending during the pandemic.

Bessent objected that the Trump administration handled “the rescue portion of COVID” while the Biden administration was responsible for “the recovery portion.”

Moody’s analysts said U.S. debt, which hit $36.2 trillion last year, has been rising sharply for more than a decade, as federal spending increased and tax cuts brought in less revenue.

They noted that most federal spending — 73 percent in 2024 — is on mandatory entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and interest on the U.S. debt, which has soared to more than $1 trillion annually.

“Without adjustments to taxation and spending, we expect budget flexibility to remain limited, with mandatory spending, including interest expense, projected to rise to around 78 percent of total spending by 2035,” Moody’s analysts said.

If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended — as Trump and Congressional Republicans are pushing for — that would add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade, Moody’s analysts concluded.

Just back from a trip to the Mideast, Bessent claimed countries in the region are poised to invest trillions of dollars in the U.S.

“Who cares?” Bessent said of the Moody’s downgrade. “Qatar doesn’t, Saudi [Arabia] doesn’t,  UAE doesn’t — they’re all pushing money in. They’ve made 10-year investment plans. This administration, we’re doing peace deals, trade deals and tax deals.”

Federal deficit as a percentage of GDP

Economist Stephen Moore — a Project 2025 author who Trump tried to appoint to the Federal Reserve’s governing board in 2019 — lashed out at Moody’s Ratings in a Fox Business op-ed Monday.

Although Moody’s was the last of the credit rating agencies to downgrade the U.S.’s credit rating, Moore called the timing of the downgrade “particularly suspicious,” coming “just as Congress is voting on the Trump tax cut.”

“What Moody’s and other credit-rating agencies still can’t understand is that tax cuts like Ronald Reagan’s in 1981 and Trump’s 2017 bill grow the economy and, over time, lower the debt burden as a share of the nation’s wealth,” Moore wrote. “More people working and less people on welfare is a great way to lower debt spending. If we can get the growth rate up to 3 percent — which President Trump is aiming for — the debt burden starts to shrink.”

Get Inman’s Mortgage Brief Newsletter delivered right to your inbox. A weekly roundup of all the biggest news in the world of mortgages and closings delivered every Wednesday. Click here to subscribe.

Email Matt Carter

This May marks Inman’s sixth annual Agent Appreciation Month. Look for profiles of top producers, opinions on the current state of the industry and tangible takeaways you can implement in your career today. Plus, the prestigious Future Leaders of Real Estate return this month, too.

Keller Williams is expanding its publishing empire with “Rookie Real Estate Agent,” a book that helps agents navigate their first years in the industry without falling victim to common — and potentially career-ending — mistakes.

Jay Papasan

The book is based on a decade’s worth of insights from 250 top-performing agents, which have been organized into 18 chapters covering topics such as:

• Adopting the mindset​ needed to thrive as a real estate entrepreneur
• Mastering industry fundamentals​
• Developing a six-figure business plan​ and managing finances
• Driving effective lead-generation strategies​ to find motivated buyers and sellers
• Delivering exceptional client service​
• Managing transactions from agreement to close​
• Building a reliable database for predictable future income​

Alongside the book, KW leaders are working on new training materials and workshops for rookie agents.

“We asked the most successful agents in our industry what they did their first year that others don’t,” KW VP of Strategic Content Jay Papasan said in a written statement. “Their answers offered a clear formula for success. Treat your career like a business, not a hobby. Work your database early and often. Leverage technology to save money and time while amplifying your value proposition. The ‘Rookie’ lays out the fundamentals every agent needs to thrive.”

Rookie Real Estate Agent: Launch a Limitless Career That Lasts is available for pre-sale on Keller Williams’ KellerINK site for $16.00. Pre-orders will be sent in September, after which the book will also be available for purchase at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and other major retailers.

Keller Williams has eight other books, including The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results, The Millionaire Real Estate Agent, The Millionaire Real Estate Investor and SHIFT: How Top Real Estate Agents Tackle Tough Times.

“With tens of thousands of new agents entering the industry each year — and a third leaving before they close a deal — it’s time for a new playbook,” he added. “‘Rookie Real Estate Agent’ is that playbook. It’s built for the realities of 2025 and beyond.”

Email Marian McPherson

Bigger. Better. Bolder. Inman Connect is heading to San Diego. Join thousands of real estate pros, connect with the Inman Community and gain insights from hundreds of leading minds shaping the industry. If you’re ready to grow your business and invest in yourself, this is where you need to be. Go BIG in San Diego!

A former eXp agent sued the brokerage and a photographer who worked for one of its agents, saying she was drugged and sexually assaulted after a networking gathering that took place during an eXp event in 2023, and that eXp failed to properly investigate the incident.

Kirsten Childress alleged that she met the photographer, Nicholas B. Moore, at an open bar hosted by an eXp vendor during the eXp Shareholder Summit in May 2023 before the alleged attack took place.

After filing her civil lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida on Monday morning, Childress became the latest woman to sue eXp and allege she was attacked after attending an event affiliated with the brokerage and receiving a laced drink.

Childress said that she attended a networking event with an open bar and food hosted by an eXp vendor during the summit. She recalls drinking 1-2 vodka cranberry cocktails while eating and socializing during the event, her complaint says. 

“The next thing [she] recalls is being raped and strangled by [Moore] in his hotel room,” the complaint says.

Moore hasn’t been charged with a crime. He didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday, the day Childress filed her civil complaint against him and eXp.

In a statement, eXp said that it was “deeply concerned” about the allegations and distanced itself from the event that preceded the alleged attack.

“We are deeply concerned by any report of harm and extend our compassion and support to Ms. Childress,” the brokerage said in a statement. “The alleged incident occurred at a private, non-eXp-sponsored event, and the accused individual is not affiliated with eXp Realty. When the matter was brought to our attention, we immediately responded by offering support to the victim and by taking action to help to ensure the safety of other eXp agents. We want to be clear that eXp does not in any way condone, and had no involvement or control over, the actions of the accused individual.”

The allegations

The New York Times reported on Childress’s lawsuit on Monday. The outlet first reported on the case in an article about similar allegations involving eXp and its agents in December 2023.

The alleged incident happened in a hotel room after a networking event hosted by an unspecified eXp vendor on the Friday night of the event.

The NYT reported that detectives with the Orange County Sheriff’s Office interviewed Moore the morning after the alleged attack, during which he said they had consensual intercourse. 

Neither the hospital nor the Victim Service Center conducted toxicology screenings, according to the complaint. The state attorney’s office later declined to prosecute the case, citing the lack of toxicology testing, the complaint states.

Moore allegedly said that he had no sexual contact with Childress, and that he ordered a rideshare to take her to her hotel after he learned she was married, according to the lawsuit.

“However, DEFENDANT MOORE’s DNA was detected from vaginal swabs collected from the rape kit,” Childress’s lawsuit states.

“DEFENDANT MOORE later admitted to the law enforcement he choked PLAINTIFF during sex but claimed it was consensual,” the complaint says. “This is inconsistent with PLAINTIFF’s statements, memory loss, post-traumatic presentation, and physical evidence.” 

According to the complaint, eXp didn’t conduct an investigation into the alleged conduct, and Moore still worked as a contractor for at least one eXp agent months after the alleged incident.

“DEFENDANT eXp’s failure to investigate is consistent with DEFENDANT eXp’s pattern and practice of turning a blind eye and not investigating the conduct of its top agents, contrary to its own Policies and Procedures.”

In her complaint, Childress accuses Moore of sexual battery and intentional infliction of emotional distress. She accuses eXp of negligent misrepresentation and breach of contract.

She is seeking compensatory relief to be determined at trial, punitive damages from Moore and eXp, and an injunction requiring policy reform and reporting transparency at eXp.

Previous lawsuits

In February 2023, four women accused two eXp Realty agents of luring them to industry and company events with the promise of career advancement, only to then drug and sexually assault them.

That complaint ultimately argued that the two men participated in an “ongoing venture to entice women to travel in interstate commerce, recruit enthusiastic real estate agents with the promise of career advancement and coaching, and use their considerable influence in the real estate industry on these other real estate agents behalf, knowing that they would use means of force, fraud or coercion to cause these women to engage in a sex act.”

A fifth eXp agent filed a lawsuit that made similar allegations in December 2023.

Those lawsuits are still in litigation.

Email Taylor Anderson

This report is available exclusively to subscribers of Inman Intel, the data and research arm of Inman offering deep insights and market intelligence on the business of residential real estate and proptech. Subscribe today.

While U.S. importers, retailers and homebuilders found themselves on the front lines in the government’s sweeping new tariffs on imports, American real estate brokerages were already beginning to feel the pain.

Just over 1 in 10 agents who responded to April’s Inman Intel Index survey said that they had witnessed a sale fall apart in their market because of “tariff impact.” Brokerage leaders Intel surveyed, from their higher perch within their respective organizations, were even more likely to have seen a deal blow up because of tariffs.

This early temperature check was taken a few weeks after the Trump administration announced — then paused — sweeping reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports, leaving in place a new 10 percent baseline tariff on imports from most countries. 

They also reflect a period of time when duties imposed on Chinese imports were as high as 145 percent, before those too were temporarily brought back down.

The ever-changing policy environment has introduced a fresh wave of angst within the brokerage world, which by late April was broadly concerned about the direction of the U.S. economy, Intel’s survey found.

Dive into the numbers in this week’s full report.

A lurking threat

At first glance, real estate brokerages aren’t the most exposed business model to the impact of broad universal tariffs.

Brokerages have relatively low reliance on capital goods to conduct transactions and make commissions, aside from the computers and electronics that they need to do their jobs.

And the broader impacts of new tariffs on housing supply — such as on prices of lumber and other inputs to residential construction — are unlikely to be fully felt for months or years.

But that doesn’t mean brokerages have seen no effect in their day-to-day experiences with clients, who are weighing the same uncertainty of the new policy in their own complex and often high-stakes decisions to list or buy a home.

• Nearly 14 percent of real estate agents surveyed in April by Intel said they had seen a recent deal fall apart due to job loss.
• 11 percent of respondents said “tariff impact” had caused a deal in their market to fall apart.
• And 8 percent pointed to unexpected complications involving the Federal Housing Administration, the Department of Housing and Urban Development or the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

It should be noted that a large majority of agents surveyed — 74 percent — said that they had not seen any of these factors blow up a deal at any point in the last three months.

It’s also unclear in what ways the tariffs have impacted these deals, or whether the transactions in question were for their clients or those of other agents in their market.

In future surveys, Intel will dive deeper into this group to better understand this complex and evolving issue for the industry.

But in the meantime, part of the picture is clear: A lot of clients are asking about the tariffs during the homebuying process, and expressing unease about how they might affect them.

• 45 percent of agent respondents and 51 percent of brokerage leader respondents told Intel in April that clients have inquired about the effect of new trade policies on real estate prices — even though the tariffs are not expected to directly apply to domestic real estate sales or brokerage commissions.

Some real estate professionals also reported they are already anticipating a negative impact on their markets from federal layoffs — although the impact is expected to remain modest.

• 55 percent of agents surveyed in April said their market has seen no impact from federal government layoffs.
• 43 percent of agents in the survey said their market had been negatively impacted by federal job cuts, but less than 8 percent of all agents surveyed described a “very negative impact” from these cuts.
• Just over 1 percent of agent respondents in April described positive effects in their markets from federal job cuts so far.

This newfound unease was also felt by the broker-owners, executives and investors Intel surveyed last month.

The view from the top

When Intel has asked in the past about concerns over the market — such as with changes to commissions resulting from the NAR settlement — agents have often been more prone to worry than the leaders at their brokerages.

But when it comes to the tariffs, both groups reported a broad range of concern in late April. 

• 75 percent of agent respondents in April said they were concerned or very concerned about the U.S. economy right now, compared to only 8 percent who said they were pleased with the economy.
• For brokerage leaders, 65 percent told Intel that they were concerned or very concerned, while 15 percent said they were pleased with the state of the economy.

Brokerage leaders were just as likely as their agents to say that their business decisions have been affected by recent economic uncertainty, but less likely to describe that effect as “significant.”

• Only 28 percent of agent respondents said recent economic uncertainty has had no impact on their business decisions at all — nearly identical to the share of brokerage leaders who said the same.
• Meanwhile, 32 percent of agents said that uncertainty has had a “significant” effect on their decisionmaking, compared to 20 percent of brokerage leaders who said the same. 

The responses in this report reflect a slice of industry sentiment at a specific snapshot in time: specifically, the survey date range of April 17 through May 2. 

Since then, trade barriers have continued to shift — and in some cases, on a temporary basis, ease — as the White House has responded to market uncertainty and expressed openness to striking deals with major trade partners.

Intel will continue to track the effect of trade policy on brokerages in the months to come.

Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted April 17-May 2, 2025, and received 428 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.

Email Daniel Houston