Mortgage rates are coming down. Does the trend have any legs?

by Matt Carter | Jul 1, 2025 | Industry, News Feed

Real estate is changing fast, and so must you. Inman Connect San Diego is where you turn uncertainty into strategy — with real talk, real tools and the connections that matter. If you’re serious about staying ahead of the game, this is where you need to be. Register now!

After staying stuck in the high sixes for two months, mortgage rates are coming back down as investors seeking certainty pull money out of the stock market and move it into bonds and mortgage-backed securities that fund most home loans.

But there’s no guarantee that the downward move in mortgage rates is sustainable, economists say, and hopes that home sales will pick up may hinge more on additional inventory coming onto the market, which is expected to cool or reverse home price gains.

After popping in April over concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff policies could reignite inflation, mortgage rates have been trending down since May 21.

At 6.67 percent Monday, lender data tracked by Optimal Blue shows rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down 25 basis points since May 21 and 38 basis points from the 2025 high of 7.05 percent registered on Jan. 14.

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A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. So rates have come down by 1/4 percentage point in the last five weeks — more than halfway to the 2025 low of 6.48 percent seen on April 4.

“The drop in rates is small but still helpful,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement to Inman.

Mortgage rates trending down

Yun noted that 10-year Treasury yields — a barometer for mortgage rates — have made a similar downward move, and pointed out a few key reasons behind the trend.

Lawrence Yun

“First, there is an improved prospect of tariff negotiations,” Yun said. “Second, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September — or possibly even sooner — has increased, with two voting members publicly stating support for a July rate cut. Finally, actual inflation is calmer than forecasted in April and May, helped by decelerating shelter costs.”

Although the Trump administration has been putting the heat on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates, mortgage rates are determined largely by investor demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

When the prospects for economic growth look precarious, investors pile into MBS and government bonds seeking safe returns. More demand for bonds and MBS drives up their prices and brings down their yields.

But when inflation looks like a potential threat to their returns, investors will demand higher yields — driving up borrowing costs for homebuyers.

When the Fed cut short-term rates three times at the end of last year by a full percentage point, mortgage rates went up as investors weighed incoming data showing inflation moving away from the central bank’s 2 percent goal.

Where interest rates are headed next depends in large part on the outcome of ongoing tariff negotiations and Congress’ tax and spending policies, and forecasting mortgage rates can be a tricky business.

But in their latest forecast, economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association on June 20 predicted rates for 30-year fixed rate loans will end the year about where they are now — at 6.7 percent.

Mortgage rates forecast to stabilize

The MBA sees mortgage rates coming down only gradually next year, to 6.4 percent by Q4.

Edward Seiler

A June 12 forecast by Fannie Mae economists was slightly more optimistic, predicting rates will drop to 6.5 percent by Q4 2025 and to 6.1 percent by the end of next year.

MBA economist Edward Seiler, the executive director of the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), told Inman that cooling home price appreciation is likely to have a bigger impact on affordability than mortgage rates.

Home price appreciation expected to cool

Source: Forecasts by Fannie Mae (April 2025) and Mortgage Bankers Association (June 2025).

Fannie Mae’s home price appreciation forecast is published quarterly, and hasn’t been updated since April.

MBA forecasters in June predicted that national home price appreciation will cool to 1.3 percent by the end of this year, and to 0.3 percent by Q4 2026.

Since the MBA’s forecast also predicts that inflation will swell to 3.2 percent by the end of next year, that implies national home price growth will be negative in real terms.

Price declines are expected in markets where inventory is coming online faster than houses are sold.

Among the 20 largest housing markets tracked by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, two saw year-over-year declines in April — Tampa (-2.2 percent) and Dallas (-0.2 percent).

Nicholas Godec

“The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire,” S&P Down Jones Indices analyst Nicholas Godec said in a statement.

Elevated mortgage rates are keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs, and the mortgage lock-in effect continues to constrain housing supply, he said.

The supply-demand imbalance “continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp [price] corrections that some had feared.”

It’s a market in transition, Godec said, where “local fundamentals matter more than national trends.”

Housing and mortgage experts polled by Fannie Mae in May saw Austin, Tampa, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Phoenix, Washington, D.C., and Atlanta as markets where home prices are most likely to underperform national home price appreciation over the next 12 months.

Among the 20 largest U.S. housing markets, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Nashville and San Diego were viewed as places where prices are most likely to go up faster than the national average.

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Rocket reorganizes to close Redfin acquisition, Mr. Cooper on deck

by Matt Carter | Jun 30, 2025 | Industry, News Feed

Real estate is changing fast, and so must you. Inman Connect San Diego is where you turn uncertainty into strategy — with real talk, real tools and the connections that matter. If you’re serious about staying ahead of the game, this is where you need to be. Register now!

Mortgage giant Rocket Companies completed a reorganization of its capital structure Monday that will pave the way for the acquisition of tech-forward real estate brokerage Redfin — a deal it’s claimed could cut consumers’ transaction costs in half by compressing agent fees, mortgage gain-on-sale and title premiums.

The all-stock deal, valued at $1.75 billion when announced in March, went unchallenged by antitrust regulators and was approved by Redfin shareholders on June 4.

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In announcing the completion of its reorganization in a regulatory filing, Rocket said it reduced its classes of common stock from four to two in an “Up-C Collapse” that will improve its ability to use its common stock as acquisition currency for future deals.

That includes Rocket’s next big acquisition target, Mr. Cooper Group Inc., the nation’s biggest loan servicer, for stock valued at $9.4 billion.

Company executives have said acquiring Redfin will help subsidiary Rocket Mortgage capture 8 percent of the purchase loan market, and the Mr. Cooper deal will put Rocket in touch with more homeowners who might be ready to refinance.

Detroit-based Rocket wants to handle 20 percent of U.S. mortgage refinancings, and Rocket CEO Varun Krishna said last month that the company has invested about $500 million in AI and other technology that will help the company scale its business without a proportionate increase in expenses after the mergers.

In a March 10 investor presentation, Rocket executives said that by handling every aspect of homebuying and selling — from home search to mortgage financing and title and closing — they aim to cut transaction costs on the median priced home from $40,000 to $20,000.

“For far too long, the homeownership process has been outdated and disconnected,” Krishna told investment analysts in March. “Home search, brokerage, mortgage, title, closing, servicing, all exist in separate ecosystems, forcing consumers to piece together a complex and frustrating journey.”

Redfin shareholders will receive 0.7926 shares of Rocket common stock for each share of Redfin they own. Shares in Rocket closed at $14.18 Monday, up from $9.51 per share before the deal was announced.

Redfin will remain headquartered in Seattle, with CEO Glenn Kelman continuing to lead the business and reporting to Krishna.

“Rocket’s and Redfin’s approaches to lending and brokerage service have always just been two halves of one vision to make the whole home-buying process magical,” Kelman blogged in March.

In reporting first-quarter earnings in May, Rocket executives said the Mr. Cooper acquisition remains on track to close by the end of the year.

Rocket announced on June 3 that it would issue $4 billion in debt and use the proceeds to retire notes held by Mr. Cooper subsidiary Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify that Rocket Companies announced an “Up-C Collapse” reorganization Monday to pave the way for its closing of deals to acquire Redfin and Mr. Cooper. 

Get Inman’s Mortgage Brief Newsletter delivered right to your inbox. A weekly roundup of all the biggest news in the world of mortgages and closings delivered every Wednesday. Click here to subscribe.

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Zillow fires back at Compass, saying brokerage faces no harm from its listing policy

by Taylor Anderson | Jun 30, 2025 | Industry, News Feed

It’s reckoning day for private listings. What you should know about Zillow’s changes

by Taylor Anderson | Jun 30, 2025 | Industry, News Feed

How being a successful agent is like being a Broadway producer

by Darryl Davis | Jun 30, 2025 | Industry, News Feed

Real estate is changing fast, and so must you. Inman Connect San Diego is where you turn uncertainty into strategy — with real talk, real tools and the connections that matter. If you’re serious about staying ahead of the game, this is where you need to be. Register now!

Back in high school, all I wanted was to be on stage. Not the kind of stage where I’m training agents or speaking at events (although that is my life now). I mean acting and performing on the Great White Way of Broadway.

Acting was the dream. So, when I got into real estate at 19, it wasn’t out of a deep love for square footage. It was a strategy: Real estate would pay the bills while I auditioned in New York City.   

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Then something unexpected happened. I started doing really well. Like, really well. Real estate went from part-time hustle to full-time career, and eventually, I phased out of acting completely. I remember telling myself, “You know what? One day, I’ll make enough to produce my own show.”

Well … I didn’t quite become a Broadway producer. But I did get close. I’ve had the incredible opportunity to invest in Broadway through one of the best in the business — Ken Davenport, a two-time Tony Award-winning producer behind hits like Kinky Boots, Godspell, Oh Mary! and Othello. (By the way, he has an incredible new show called Joy – check it out!)

My first investment was in his revival of Gypsy (yep, that Gypsy, with Audra McDonald starring in the revival) — and even though I wasn’t the one calling the shots, being part of that world gave me a front-row seat to what it takes to put on a successful production.

Let me tell you something: It’s a lot like running a real estate business.

Here are five producer-style principles that every real estate agent can borrow from Broadway to put on a show-stopping business.

1. It’s not about being the star. It’s about assembling the right cast and crew

Sure, the lead gets the spotlight, but no Broadway show survives without a solid ensemble, a killer director and a behind-the-scenes crew that keeps the whole thing running. Same goes for real estate.

You might be the one with your face on the sign and your name on the business card, but you can’t do this alone — not if you want to scale up your business (and stay sane).

Your crew might include your mortgage broker, your home inspector, your stager, your transaction coordinator, your photographer and your go-to handyman. Every one of them plays a role in making you look good — and in making sure your clients have a smooth ride.

And when you surround yourself with people who are not only competent, but also care about your clients the way you do? That’s when the magic happens.

2. You’ve got to take risks, but smart ones

Nobody puts millions into a Broadway show unless they believe in the story. And yet, even with belief, talent and the best marketing, you still don’t know if it’s going to be a hit or a flop. That’s part of the thrill and part of the gamble.

Real estate is no different. Every listing is a bit of a risk. Every marketing campaign, every shift in your farming strategy, every door you knock or prospecting call you make — it’s a leap of faith. But the key is to take informed risks.

Track your numbers. Test new ideas in small batches. Know your audience. Invest in yourself and your business like a producer does: with heart and a spreadsheet.

3. You’re building an experience, not just a product

People don’t go to Broadway just to watch a show — they go to feel something. They want the emotion, the story, the energy, the escape. They want the full package: the lights, the music, the atmosphere, the wow moment when the curtain rises. 

Real estate is no different.

You’re not just helping someone buy or sell a property. You’re guiding them through one of the biggest emotional and financial moments of their life. That means how you show up matters. How you communicate, how you listen, how you make them feel during the process — those things stick with people far longer than the final price on a contract.

Members of our coaching program have started to shift their mindset this way. One shared how they stopped focusing solely on the transaction itself and started focusing on the experience — surprising clients with handwritten notes, giving thoughtful closing gifts, even staging welcome-home photo shoots. The result? More referrals, more repeat business and more clients saying, “You were the best part of this whole process.”

It’s not about the paperwork. It’s about the performance. And when you treat each client like an audience member whose experience matters, you’ll always get a standing ovation.

4. You have to believe in the project because not everyone else will

On Broadway, there are times when it’s not the show that’s in question — it’s the people behind it. Actors get passed over, producers get told “It’ll never work,” and directors are second-guessed at every turn. But the ones who make it? They believe in their talent, their voice, their purpose, even when others don’t.

The same goes for real estate. You’re going to have moments when a listing doesn’t sell, a client ghosts you, or someone questions your worth as an agent.

You’ll face markets that feel impossible and buyers or sellers who think they know better than you do. But here’s the thing — you don’t need to believe in every property, but you do need to believe in yourself. You need to believe that your guidance makes a difference. That your knowledge helps buyers build wealth and helps sellers move on to their next level in life.

You’re not just opening doors to houses; you’re opening doors to new eras in people’s lives.

When you believe in the contribution you make to others, in the heart you bring to this business, that’s what will carry you through the tough days. Not the price tag on a listing. Not the outcome of a transaction. But the impact you have along the way.

5. Your reputation offstage matters just as much as your performance

In Broadway, a producer’s name carries weight. If they’re known for putting on quality shows and treating people right, investors line up, actors want to work with them, and audiences trust the brand. But the moment a producer gets a bad reputation behind the scenes — being difficult, shady or cutting corners — it catches up to them fast.

It’s the same exact thing in real estate. You can crush it on listing appointments, stage homes like a rockstar and negotiate like a boss. But if other agents dread working with you, or clients feel like you’re only in it for yourself, your long-term success takes a hit. Word travels. Fast.

One of our coaching members shared that a big chunk of their business started coming from other agents — agents they had worked with on deals in the past who remembered them as professional, respectful and fantastic to work with. Those agents chose to refer their friends and family to someone they technically competed with. When that starts happening, you know you’re doing it right.

Your reputation is your real brand. Make sure it shines, even when the spotlight’s not on you. Especially when the spotlight’s not on you! As Charles Marshall said in his book Shattering the Glass Slipper, “Integrity is doing the right thing, even when no one is watching.”

So yeah, I never did star in a Broadway show, but I still found my stage. I coach and train real estate professionals across the country, helping them become the “producers” of their own careers. I may not be listing and selling anymore, but I still invest in real estate — and I see the business from both sides of the curtain.

And, just like Broadway, success in real estate is about more than just knowing your lines. It’s about casting the right team, believing in your vision, taking smart risks, building unforgettable experiences and protecting your reputation like it is opening night.

Now, go out there and break a leg