How to Reach FIRE Based on Your Income ($45K – $100K/Year)

What does it mean to “win” financially in your income bracket? To us, the end goal is always FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early), and if you’re chasing financial freedom, this is the show for you. We’re breaking down the money moves you need to make based on your income bracket, going from $45,000 to $100,000 per year, and how to stretch your dollar the furthest so you can invest, save, and reach FIRE faster.

If you’re at the lower end of the income scale, we’ll give you time-tested methods to boost your income and use your time wisely so you can start stockpiling cash TODAY. If you have a high income, there’s still work to be done as you need to find the best way to keep the most of your income so you can use it to acquire wealth-building assets.

Regardless of how much money you make, you CAN achieve FIRE if you know the proper steps. The good news? We’re sharing those steps today, so stick around!

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Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Mindy:
Wealth building isn’t just about how much you earn, but how much you save and invest, which is why today we are diving into a topic that I think is going to resonate with a lot of people how to win financially. No matter what income bracket you’re in, whether you’re just starting out with a low salary, climbing your way up or already earning a six figure income, there are strategies that can help you reach your financial goals. Hello, hello, hello and welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and with me as always is my definitely in sum income bracket. Co-host, Scott Trench,

Scott:
Capital introduction, Mindy, just capital BiggerPockets has a goal of creating 1 million millionaires. You are in the right place if you want to get your financial house in order and achieve some capital gains because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for everyone no matter when or where you’re starting. And today we’re going to discuss how to make the biggest financial impact that 45, 75 and a hundred thousand dollars a year in income to propel you on your financial independence journey. We’re going to talk about what investment strategies should stay the same between those three income brackets and what should be different as you increase your income. Okay, Mindy, so let’s start off with how you would approach a $45,000 per year salary starting today.

Mindy:
Okay, at the very beginning of the intro I said wealth building isn’t just about how much you earn, but how much you save and invest. And in the $45,000 tax bracket in the $45,000 income, you don’t have a ton of opportunities to save and invest in large amounts. I want you to first go back to the basics. You are likely at more of the beginning of your career and you have time on your side, which is what I am assuming. I want you to max out your Roth IRA. The contribution limits for under 50 20, 24 is $7,000. That is a little bit over $500 a month. I want you to figure out how you can take $500 a month and put it into your Roth IRA. I think that would be a huge benefit for you right now. I also want you to look at your company’s 401k options.
Do you have a 401k? Do you have a 4 0 3 B? If you’re a government employee, you may have a 4 57 plan. So I want to know what your company is offering as far as a match to your 401k because we are looking for ways to invest and when your company matches the money that you’re putting into the account, we call that free money here. I want you to take advantage of every free dollar you possibly can If your company has a Roth 401k option, I think that’s a great thing to look into as well. It’s got the difference between a Roth and a traditional account is that you pay the taxes now on the rough and then it grows tax free and you withdraw it tax free down the road. So if you’re 20, 25, 30 years old, you have a long runway for this to grow tax free.
If you’re 45, 50, 60, you don’t have as much time for that to compound and grow in the Roth plans. You also might be making more money, in which case reducing your current taxable income could be your goal. That’s what my goal is. But if you are making $45,000 a year, let’s say you’re spending 25 or 30, you’re paying taxes on it. There’s just not a ton of money leftover and I hate to say leftover to contribute to these accounts. Again, assuming that you’re a younger person, I’m going to encourage you to look at side income side hustles so that you can generate more income to more easily fund that Roth IRA and potential 401k contributions. Scott, what are your tips for people making $45,000 a year?

Scott:
I’m going to get way more aggressive than what you just said there and say, look, if you’re making $45,000 a year, you’re just getting started or something drastic needs to change if you want to achieve financial independence because you ain’t achieving financial independence in a hurry, making $45,000 a year. So the whole game becomes how do we change the fact that you’re making $45,000 a year, which is fundamentally incongruent with the achievement of very early financial independence like 10, 15, 20 years at minimum here. So I would be throwing out a lot of the long-term saving and investing advice. The question is how can we get expenses extremely low and build up a cash position, which allows us to exploit the next set of opportunities and how do we gear up for the career pivot or entrepreneurial venture or house hack that can actually begin exploding income?
I was in this position to start my career. I was 23 making 48 KA year. That’s more today adjusted for inflation of course than 40 5K. It’s about 60 K, but in that situation, my day was I would get up, make my own breakfast, pack my own lunch drive or bike to work in my Corolla if I was driving or on my $250 bicycle that I purchased from a coworker. If it was a nice day and I could bike and in the evenings as soon as I stopped, I would uber or tutor or figure out a way to earn side hustle income and this way I saved up about 20 K by living with a roommate to be able to make the next big investment. So that’s the goal. I would forget the Roth or the 401k or whatever and I’d just stick cash in a savings account because the problem isn’t whether, which vehicle you’re taking, the problem is that even if you saved all of the $45,000, you wouldn’t achieve fire in the next 10 to 15 years on that unless you got pretty lucky from an investment standpoint.
So we need to increase that income with that cash position and the very low cost lifestyle. I would be looking for an opportunity within the next six months to a year to dramatically accelerate that income. If that was in the current position, that’s one thing, but probably unlikely I’d be looking for a sales gig or an opportunity to go to work at a startup or I’d be thinking about the small business and a world and how to maybe acquire or get into that if I could partner with somebody, but I would be stockpiling cold hard cash in the form of digital savings in the bank account, of course in the checking your savings account and I’d be looking to use that opportunity. So example what that could look like. You earn $45,000 a year, you try to save 10, $15,000 of it in emergency reserve, maybe 20, and then you go after a house hack.
The ideal house hack I would say in Denver, Colorado at this moment or where I’d be sniffing around for opportunity is I’d be looking for a four or five bedroom house in a specific part of town called Aurora near a medical campus. I have this all located, you should get this specific for yourself over the next six months to a year while you study this in your market, wherever that is. By way looking to it for a four to five bedroom house with two to three baths, I’d be looking for a large yard that would enable or allow the option for an A DU to be constructed and I would be thinking about can I live in that house and rent out the other bedrooms? Can I construct an A DU and live in that and Airbnb the house? What are my options there to be able to provide a really good opportunity?
I’d also be looking at consumable mortgages in that particular area of town. It may be different in yours. There’s a lot of assumable mortgages which are perfect for somebody in this position because you don’t need as much income to qualify for an assumable mortgage if it has that last year’s or 2021 or previous lower interest rate mortgages. So I’d be getting really aggressive about those things and stockpiling cash to enable myself to make that career or house hacking pivot because the investing doesn’t make sense at this base or it’s way dramatically outweighed by the opportunities to switch career or house hack, which the cash directly enables by giving you some cushion there. So how do you feel about that? Very different answer, Mindy. I

Mindy:
Will agree to disagree. I like what you’re saying about stockpiling cash and taking advantage and reducing your expenses. You said you packed your own lunch, you biked to work, you did side hustles and you had a roommate. I have heard story after story from people who aren’t on the path of financial independence who make 45, $50,000 a year and go out to lunch every day because that’s what all their coworkers do. They drive to work in that brand new car that they bought for high school or college graduation because they deserve it and they don’t do side hustles because I’m in my twenties, I want to live my life and they don’t have a roommate. They had roommates all through college and they just want to be by themselves and those are choices that they’re making. I’m not sure if those are choices that they’re making, consciously understanding the financial impact.
I think those are choices that they’re making based on wants once instead of needs. So I see where you’re coming from. I love that advice. I still want to go back to the Roth IRA. If you are young, you have so much runway to grow tax-free. That is a gift. Also get an HSA, but I think that the bottom line, Scott, is that income needs to increase if you want to reach financial independence and at $45,000, there’s just not a lot of extra to be putting into your wealth building, which is why your tip about reducing your expenses is really, really, really key.

Scott:
Stay tuned for more on how to change up your investing strategies with more income after a quick break,

Mindy:
Let’s jump back in.

Scott:
I’m literally saying if you’re trying to go retire, traditionally you can retire traditionally by saving 10 15% of that 40 5K salary and investing it in a Roth, IRA, Dave Ramsey, Ramit, all these other great personal finance folks, they’re good resources for that and you should do that. But if you’re trying to fire, if you’re trying to retire early in 10 to 15 years, don’t do that. Save a bunch of cash and use that to manufacture opportunities. Don’t blow the cash but just stockpile it for one year and I promise that if you couple that with reading 30 50 business books in your spare time and tons of side hustles, the opportunities that emerge for you will be better than a 10% stock market return on average around that. For that I promise I don’t know, but I would way rather take that bet and that’s what I did when I was in that position and I think that it will pay off really handsomely to have that cash stock piled rather than having a little bit of money in that first Roth.
Again, if you’re trying to get there very quickly, there’ll be time to catch up that Roth and 401k later when we really go after our income, but that’s a huge, I am literally suggesting that you go through 30 to 50 business books during this time period, side hustle a lot and really treat the situation of earning 40 5K is an emergency and that in the next year that is going to be going up and there’s going to be an opportunity set that will emerge that will allow me to make much more than that. On a go forward basis, if you want to fire well in advance of traditional retirement age, there’s no really way around how to fire with 40 5K. The answer is, and you’ll find a lot of people here on BiggerPockets money who fired starting from an income of $45,000. You’re going to find very few who never materially changed that starting point of $45,000 and that’s also a frustration people say is, oh, this person made 150 K.
Well guess what? If you’re capable of saving 30 40% of $45,000 salary and you read a bunch of business books and you listen to podcasts, you will accumulate first tens and then hundreds of thousands of dollars in assets, maybe a million dollars in assets, people who are capable and disciplined enough to amass and then effectively manage a million dollars in assets, often have job opportunities and can drive much more value than that at businesses to earn more money. So this will all work together and compound. It just needs to start with a major pivot and new orientation around that I think and the aggressive accumulation of cash to seize those opportunities.

Mindy:
Scott, now let’s look at a $75,000 income you’re making. I would say significantly more than you need to live off of, especially if you’re able to live off of this 45,000, I think you’re making significantly more than you need to bare bones live. I know there’s people that are going to say, oh, I can’t live off 75. Okay, great for you, but these are people who are living off of 75. What would you do differently at a $75,000 income than you would or recommend at a $45,000 income?

Scott:
So I think that the game has changed a little bit at $75,000 and it depends on the type of income, right? So if you’re a salesperson making $75,000, well there’s opportunity to really expand that and that changes the way I think about investing a little bit more than, for example, a teacher who may be making $75,000 between their base salary and summer gig for example in there, if you’re in the teaching profession for example, with that $75,000 in combined income and benefits, again including a summer job, I know that many teachers do not earn $75,000 per year, especially earlier in the career, but that’s a case where I would say, okay, now let’s go down the ladder of these retirement accounts and say, okay, how do I put this into tax advantaged accounts like the Roth, like the 401k, like the HSA. I know the teachers actually have different versions of those here, but I think that that’s where I would be thinking about, I’m going to use these tax advantage retirement accounts.
Maybe in the off time I’m going to be thinking about maybe a real estate project every couple of years, save up some cash for that, but I’m going to be moving down that stack and thinking, can I get to 30 40% of the income and yeah, you can probably fire in about 17 to 22 years starting from upstanding position if you’re able to save 30, 40, maybe get approaching that 50% mark on that income, which of course will get easier as the investments pile on and add a little bit more income on top of that base salary. So that’s one approach. If I’m going to be a little bit more aggressive about this and I’m in more of that sales approach or I am expecting my career to accelerate at a faster clip, maybe I’m on the corporate finance track and I’m thinking that the 70 5K today should be bumping up against a hundred thousand in three to five years.
Okay, maybe now I’m actually thinking about this is the more aggressive period of my investment career and I’m going to start saving up as much cash as possible and getting a couple of those rental properties done now so that by the time I fire in 15 years or 10 to 15 years, there’ll be a little bit more lightly leveraged and producing a little bit more cashflow. So that’s how I’d be thinking about it in those kinds of maybe two different types of scenarios. One that’s a little bit more static, 75,001 that’s more in a trajectory that’s moving me towards six figures or beyond.

Mindy:
I like what you’re saying there. Did you say index funds? Because I think at 75,000 you should be starting investing in the stock market.

Scott:
So lemme put this, I’ll restate this. If I’m in the more static progression in my career, I’m not expecting my income to surge over the next two to three years, then I would be investing in index funds or thinking about those types of investments. The decision about how to invest really depends on my aggression and timeline here. Let’s say that I am a teacher and my pension is going to mature in 20 years. Well, I’m probably not going to retire in 15 years. Even if I’m capable of doing that because I’m giving up one of the best assets of that profession, I’m probably going to be thinking about a more passive approach that’s going to get me there with a lot less headache. Maybe at that point I’m going to invest in index funds if I’m in a more aggressive pursuit of financial independence and I don’t have those types of timelines and I always want to get there as fast as possible, I’m probably waiting much more heavily towards real estate in the early years because real estate comes with the benefits of leverage and that compounding, and I’m thinking about maybe if I’m going to take the 401k match, maybe I’ll max that HSA, but I’m probably going to be, if I’m having to make trade-offs here, which most people at the $75,000 per year income range are going to have, I’m probably thinking if I want that portfolio, my end state and maybe a million in real estate, maybe a million in stocks, it’s a great idea in my view to buy that real estate earlier in the journey because you get the benefits of leverage and by the time you want to retire, the portfolio will be de-leveraging and you’ll be able to get more cashflow from that as you’ve paid off the mortgage and as rent growth has come on.
So I would probably wait towards real estate first and then as I get closer to financial dependence, really focus on that stock portfolio in these tax advantaged accounts.

Mindy:
We have to take one final break, but stick around for more on maximizing your income when we’re back.

Scott:
Welcome back to the show.

Mindy:
I want to look at $75,000 a year. I’m thinking that your job has a little bit more responsibility so you have more obligations to be at work to be doing things for work and you have less free time. I don’t see side hustles as a really big part of your wealth building journey At 75,000 and above. I see more unless you have some rockstar side hustle that is taking little time or easy to automate. I’m looking more at passive income streams. The stock market is a great go-to especially when you don’t want to be doing real estate syndications. If you can get a really great syndicator, if you can get a really great product, if you can get a really great property, syndications are a great source of passive income. I also really like private lending. That’s one of my favorite ways to generate some pretty good income short-term loans that I am doing like three-ish months. We had the authors of Lend to Live, which is a BiggerPockets book on the show a few months ago. They both have different ways of looking at the way that they lend, they lend. One of them lends more to the person than the deal and one lends more to the deal than the person. I am definitely on person more than the deal side. I typically lend only to people that I know can pay me back.

Scott:
How much capital do you need to privately lend?

Mindy:
I do private. I have done many private loans at around $50,000.

Scott:
Okay.

Mindy:
I have done private loans at higher amounts, but I don’t think that’s necessary to get into private lending. There’s also a lot of ways that you can lend without being the middleman. You hand the money to the middleman and they take care of it, and that’s a way to get into it at lower amounts. You don’t like private lending at 75,000.

Scott:
I was just thinking, I’m putting myself on the, I know you can do this with less capital, but I’m just putting my hat on of I earn less than $75,000. I’m listening and I’m like, well, can I really actually buy a $50,000 loan on a rental property? Is that even possible? And then do I have the capital to do that in liquidity at that point in time? So I wanted to just check in on that to see for those who might think that it’s less feasible to actually pull that off in that income bracket.

Mindy:
And that’s a good point. You do have to have some income to lend. You can’t just be like, yeah, I’ll lend you 50,000 and then like, Ooh, where am I going to get 50,000 from? But I like that as a passive income source. Again, you have to know what you’re doing. You should definitely read that book and learn about this process before you get into it. But I like the passive income streams at 75,000 and above the stock market. I am always going to be pro stock market. I have done very well in the stock market, but again, in your $75,000 income, this is not a free for all spend, whatever you want, keeping your expenses low, investing intelligently and with purpose at $75,000 a year, you’re working with other people who are now saying, oh, I got this hot stock tip. There’s no such thing as a hot stock tip.
Don’t buy that hot stock. That’s never going to work out. You’re making a good income. I wouldn’t say this is fire income yet. It’s fire a bowl, but your fire journey is going to be longer, especially with how much you’re spending if you can get your income or your expenses way down. Again, house hacking, living in a low cost of living area, having an older car riding your bike to work, living close enough that you can ride your bike to work. There’s lots of ways to cut down your expenses so that you can save more.

Scott:
Yeah, look, I think that a reality of fire that we probably need to just address is even at 45, 45, let’s take the 45 example. If you just saved a hundred percent of your income for 20 years, that’s 900 grand plus the investment returns, maybe you’re getting to fire in 20 years, it’s just not enough income. You just can’t do it with that. It has to change. The income has to change. If you want to fire, let’s use the same example with 750 in 10 years, you’re going to save 750 grand. If you save 100% of that and paid no tax on it, it’s still fundamentally the blocker for fire. So you either have to be on a trajectory to increase that income there or begin taking much more risky or more aggressive or sacrifice investments or you have to sacrifice like the house hack so you’re still in that position.
This is not an income level that will support rapid achievement of fire unless you’re going to serial house hack, unless you’re going to live and flip, unless you’re going to make big changes here. But I’m still not in the position of saying that we can achieve fire with 70 5K in income in a really robust timeline without continuing to make changes on those fronts. You’re looking at at least 20 years, I think even if you’re saving 30, 40, 50% of that in the stock market, and that’s if things go well and the trajectory kind of continues to climb. But I think that that’s still fundamentally the issue here and that’s how I’d be thinking about it. Even at 70 5K, I don’t even know. Moving on to the next bracket, if it changes that much at a hundred K here, a hundred K is now we’re earning a pretty serious income and if we save 30 to 50% of that, we’re talking about maybe 30 to 40 grand a year after taxes, for example, and that’s going to take you what?
400 k, 800 k, 400 k in savings over 10 years, 800 k over 20 years, and you’re still living a very modest lifestyle at that point in time on that income. So I think we continue in the fire journey to have this dependence on these fairly high leverage investments. Remember, our goal here is to achieve a retirement level of wealth way before most people, so a hundred k, we’re starting to get this much more doable. If you do go down the traditional retirement stack ladder, I don’t think you’re going to be able to do it at 75,000. I think you’re going to have to do the live and flip Mindy for example, or whatever. You might be able to do it at a hundred, especially if there are, like we mentioned earlier, good income jump opportunities, but now we’re really flirting with that border of yeah, I think you could get pretty close in about 15 to 20 years if you had a low cost of living and you went down the traditional money guy or Dave Ramsey retirement planning stack, and he said, okay, I’m going to max out the HSA, I’m going to take my 401k and then max out the 401k.
If I can contribute anywhere else and maybe save a little bit in after tax brokerage account. You could get there with a fairly passive investing strategy if you are really tight on the expense side and consistent over a decade or two, at least almost about two decades, maybe two decades plus in this route. But I would still be thinking I need to layer in a couple of fairly substantial bets or using my housing as a tool to supplement the journey to fire. Even at a hundred thousand dollars a year in income, I think you’d still have to house hack live and flip or think about some other side project like building a real estate portfolio in order to really get there in a reasonable timeframe. What do you think about that? Mindy?

Mindy:
I don’t want to agree with you, Scott, because I see a hundred thousand dollars a year and I think, wow, that’s a great income and it is a great income, but I don’t really think that you’re wrong. I’m trying to think back to all the people that we have interviewed who got to a position of zero net worth and then started building and they reached financial independence within 10 years and none of them made $45,000. None of them made $75,000.

Scott:
Some of them started there, but none of them finished there.

Mindy:
Started, yes, but they didn’t finish there, and I don’t think many of them were only, and I do this in air quotes, only making a hundred thousand dollars. They had two. Now I’m assuming that a hundred thousand is household income, not per person.

Scott:
We’ve had several couples who have neither of them made more than a hundred thousand dollars a year.

Mindy:
Yes, neither. But together that’s like 150 or $175,000 a year, which is a much more, normal is not the right word. I know people are going to [email protected] to tell him that they don’t want me to say it’s a normal income, but it’s a much more normal tofi income at 175,000 than it is at a hundred thousand. It just takes a lot of money to reach financial independence because you are taking your 35 year career or your 45 year career and you are compressing it. Well, if you’re not going to make all this money for 45 years, you’re going to have to save a whole lot more in order to be able to reach your financial independence goals. So I don’t want to agree with you, but I think you’re right. I think even at a hundred thousand dollars a year, you’ve got to focus on keeping your savings rate at 30, 40, 50, 60%.
You need to avoid lifestyle creep, especially if you were in that $45,000 bracket and then increase to a hundred, oh my goodness, I got, I doubled my income, now I can spend more. No, you doubled your income now you can save more. Again, reach with the goal of early financial independence, you will have to be saving more and REIT encourages you to enjoy your best life, live your rich life, that’s great. He’s not wrong, but living your rich life and achieving early financial independence is not really two goals that you can do At the same time, you can live a great life while achieving financial independence. You can live a rich life depending on what your definition of a rich life is and reach financial independence, and I encourage you to enjoy the journey to financial independence, but income is going to have to increase because your savings has to increase because you are decreasing your timeline to get to retirement money.

Scott:
Yeah, I think that’s right. I think that’s the problem with, again, you can get there. I think a hundred thousand dollars a year in annual income is the starting line for, and let’s define fire. Let’s define fire. There’s all these crazy things here. Jacob Lund, Fisker, early retirement Extreme living off of $7,000 a year out of a trailer. That’s not what we’re about here. That’s awesome that he does that. That’s not what you’re probably listening to. BiggerPockets money in order to achieve fire for, I think the vast majority of listeners, I said this before, I’ve never gotten challenged on it. Please do challenge me if you disagree, is one and a half to two and a half million dollars depending on where you’re located. So when we say that, when we frame that goal, that makes it a little bit more clear that, again, a hundred K is just not going to cut it in terms of firing in a reasonable amount of time.
You can get there by 55 if you want, if you’re starting at 2025 in there. That’s possible with a hundred K, but we got to still got to supplement at all three of these income levels with them. 40 5K is so little income relative to the needs for fire that the game has to be around. How do I dramatically increase my income at 70 5K? We’re still kind of there, but we can get there if we’re able to have enough side pursuits that can really stack on there, and a hundred K is just a little bit reducing the pressure for those side hustles a little bit more. But in the 70 5K to a hundred K range, I still think you really have to throw in a couple of live-in flips or house hacks at the very least to really have a shot there if there’s not serious potential to expand the income by just sticking with it in the career and continuing to climb the ladder or advance the skillset there.
And those options I think are necessary that, or building the machine of a real estate portfolio, if your area is conducive to that in that and that income bracket, that’s not going to be practical in Los Angeles, although perhaps a hundred thousand dollars a year income earner or two could find some way to make it work within 50 to a hundred miles of Los Angeles with some sort of live-in flipper house hack getting going here. You’re probably going to need that dual income to really have that opportunity or find something creative. But in other parts of the country that are lower cost of living, that is a reasonable way to go about it. But I think you’re going to have to have that side business where you’re truly adding value as a business and not just passively investing in order to supplement that income and have a real crack at fire within 10 to 15 years.

Mindy:
Okay, I want to hear now from our listeners who are sitting here saying, Scott, I totally did that. If you reached Financial independence making 45, 75, a hundred thousand dollars a year household or similar, please email [email protected], [email protected], tell us your story. We want to hear it. But those of you who were making a higher income, we want to hear your stories too. Email me anyway just to say hi email Scott just to say hi. But I do believe that, Scott, you are correct. We’re both correct.

Scott:
Yeah, I think there’s a lot of right ways to approach life and building wealth. And again, if you’re not trying to fire, go down the traditional retirement stack, put the money in the 401k and the Roth, start investing today and build for the long term, even if you’re starting at $45,000 a year. But if you want to get rich in 10 to 15 years, you got to play a different set of rules because that ain’t going to do it. It’s just not going to happen there unless you get extremely lucky. And I think I’m not, this is a one to two year delay. I’m not saying do not invest in your 401k. I’m saying for the first next two years, pile up a bunch of cash, read a bunch of books, and find some opportunities to expand the income and then contribute to the 401k in Roth once you solved for the income problem and used every resource at your disposal, including your cash position to seize that next opportunity and then go after it’s a two year delay. And don’t do that. If you’re the type of person who’s just going to blow your money on a boat instead of actually investing it in the next opportunity or investment on this, don’t put it in cash, put it somewhere you can’t touch it. But for the fire community, if you’re going to go after this, go after it and recognize that the investment returns in your first $15,000 are totally immaterial to the 1.5 million to 2.5 million goal you’d know you’ll actually have in terms of reaching fire within the next 10 to 15 years.

Mindy:
Alright, Scott, I thought this was a great conversation. I would love to hear from our listeners, either through our Facebook group or if you want to send me or Scott a message [email protected]. [email protected] or the Facebook group, facebook.com/groups/bp money. We would love to hear from you, how did you reach financial independence? What business books do you have to recommend share with our listeners? Alright, Scott, we get out of here.

Scott:
Let’s do it.

Mindy:
That wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast. He is the Scott Trench. I am Mindy Jensen saying Tooles noodles.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • How to speed up your path to financial independence based on your income bracket
  • Why we disagree about retirement account investing when you’re just starting your career
  • Ways to make more money and side hustles that can boost your income
  • The headache-free vs. hands-on approach to investing for FIRE (and who should take which path)
  • Lifestyle creep and avoiding overspending (EVEN if you have a higher income)
  • How much money we reasonably think you’ll need to achieve FIRE 
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Is Investing in Hotels a Better Move Than Scaling Short-Term Rentals?

Pre-pandemic, short-term rentals (STRs) seemed to answer burned-out landlords’ prayers. Guests paid their money upfront, eliminating the need to evict, and homeowners could use their personal residences to earn extra income should they wish to travel or rent out individual rooms. 

The hotel industry quaked and pressured cities to introduce restrictions. However, STR fever was rampant. Soon, entire apartment buildings were dedicated to the vacation rental phenomenon. Everyone with a granny flat, RV, and spare room seemed to be competing for STR dollars. Would it last? Were hotels over?

Inevitably, some markets became saturated, and the narrative about short-term rentals changed amongst investors. Post-pandemic, the number of vacation homes in the U.S. increased by 23.3% from October 2021-2022. That spring, at the height of the STR booking season, 80,000-88,000 new short-term rentals were added to the market monthly.

Bookings dropped, and landlords fretted. Hoteliers breathed a sigh of relief. 

After a shaky couple of years due in part to the economic downturn, the short-term rental business is expected to grow at a stable pace. Equally, the hotel business in the U.S. is predicted to exhibit an annual growth of 3.8% (CAGR 2024-2029), with a projected market volume of $133.3 billion by 2029. 

So, which makes a better investment for investors looking to scale their hospitality business? Hotels or STRs? 

Short-Term Rentals

As an active STR owner and landlord, I have found that the pros and cons of owning a short-term rental business are well-defined.

Pros

  • Tenants pay upfront 
  • Potential to generate more revenue than long-term rentals
  • Offer owners flexibility to rent properties when they want
  • Allows owners to scale at their own pace
  • Allows a diverse type of buildings to be used as rentals
  • Popular destinations enjoy high-traffic

Cons

  • Labor-intensive management
  • At the whim of STR algorithms for market visibility
  • Bad reviews can hurt your business
  • Potential for guests to cause damage/use the property for parties
  • Difficult to scale when using residential neighboring comps for appraisals
  • Outlawed in some cities

While the short-term rental space has benefited from property owners using high-end homes as vacation rentals, scaling with smaller units is more difficult. Using apartment buildings is harder due to increased restrictions. Buying small multifamily or single-family homes one after another takes time, and competition is tough. Still, STRs and hotels do well nationally within their catchment areas.

“We’ve seen the strongest demand in small and midsize cities, coastal and mountain locations, and areas outside of major urban centers,” Jamie Lane, senior vice president of analytics and chief economist at AirDNA, a market research firm that specializes in short-term rentals, told the New York Times of the STR market. “Hotel supply is primarily in larger urban centers or along interstates.” 

A Hotel Investing Case Study: Sathiyan Kadhiwala 

Sathiyan Kadhiwala came to the U.S. from India in 1995 and started working at his uncle’s Super 8 hotel in Allentown, Pennsylvania. He swept the car park, cleaned rooms, and eventually graduated to the front desk.

“One of the first things my uncle told me was that apart from customer service, the three most important things for guests were a clean bathroom, a working TV, and a comfortable bed,” Kadhiwala told BiggerPockets. 

Kadhiwala continued to work within his family’s business, investing with his brother, living frugally, and saving money. After being turned down by banks because of his lack of assets and cash, he saved $750,000 over 20 years, which he used as a down payment on a $5 million Hampton Inn Hotel in Clarion, Pennsylvania, in 2017, about 90 minutes outside Pittsburgh.

Kadhiwala said:

“The first thing I did was add lights to the exterior, particularly the parking lot. The next thing we did was a huge business outreach to attract customers, offering incentives. 

As with any business, cash flow is the key. The advantage of a hotel is, firstly, you have a brand name that many people trust. Beyond that, the profitability of your business depends on payroll, property taxes, and insurance. If you can minimize these costs and increase visitors, you are in a good position. Unlike a short-term rental, which is mostly a small building, a hotel is appraised on its cash flow, not the neighboring buildings.”

Kadhiwala has scaled his business over the last seven years using SBA financing. Today, he owns 10 hotels comprising four Holiday Inns, two Hampton Inns, one Super 8, one Ramada, an Econo Lodge, and a Motel 6. 

For ease of calculation, assume each hotel had 100 rooms (most of his hotels have 80 rooms). He gave me these numbers: 

“With economy hotels such as Super 8 or Days Inn, if purchased at $6 million-$6.5 million, you can expect to generate $1.5 million in annual revenue and $500,000 in cash flow. For Hampton Inns and Holiday Inns, purchased at $10 million+, the cash flow on a 100-room hotel is around $900,000/year. Obviously, that is very dependent on the location.”

Kadhiwala prefers more rural locations in Pennsylvania for his hotels to mitigate the expenses. 

The consensus on running a hotel is that it’s extremely labor intensive and far from the passive income model most investors prefer. Kadhiwala agrees, saying that he and his wife put in years of working 140-hour weeks to build their business. “My money was the time I put into the business,” he says. Me and my wife lived in a one-room apartment and saved our cash.”

Now, they outsource much of the day-to-day running to trusted third-party management teams and are looking to flip some of their hotels and diversify to more passive-type businesses such as gas stations. 

“The management teams have staff from their country—it’s often Egyptian or Indian, and they use the local community from that area,”  Kadhiwala explained. “They charge an $8/10 per-room fee, so they have an incentive to make the hotel as profitable as possible.” 

Hotels Are Changing to Replicate Short-Term Rentals

Many travelers have grown accustomed to the freedom and space that short-term rentals offer and have veered away from hotels entirely.

“Hotels have taken a page from the short-term rental playbook and said, ‘We want our restaurants open to the public, and we want rooms not to be beige boxes,’” Jan Freitag, national director for hospitality analytics at CoStar, told the New York Times. “On the amenities side, the room that used to be a place to crash now has to serve as an office.” 

Extended-stay hotels are the middle ground between a short-term rental and a hotel, featuring kitchenettes and expanded living spaces. Larger hotel chains have taken notice, with new brands expected to debut this year, including MidX Studios from Marriott, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, and Hyatt Studios. Onefinestay.com rents high-end homes and apartments with concierge service and was acquired by Accor Hotels in 2016. 

However, short-term rentals can be hit or miss. Despite online reviews, you can never be entirely sure what you’ll get, so many travelers prefer to eliminate the uncertainty, remaining loyal to trusted hotel brands.

Final Thoughts

There is no easy money in real estate. Passive income is largely a myth, especially while scaling a portfolio by leveraging. Take your eye off the ball, and things can quickly go south, especially in short-term rentals and hotel hospitality spaces, even with decent property managers. 

However, the less debt you take on, the more cash flow you will have, making you less stressed when problems arise. Kadhiwala and his wife put in the hard yards building their hotel businesses to a point where they can look at a future where they can transition to more passive sources of income while still keeping an eye on their core hospitality business. 

Invest to suit your risk tolerance, financial means, and appetite. Buying hotels requires deep pockets, either saved from years of working and living frugally like Kadhiwala or syndicated with other investors. Short-term rentals generally take less investment but generate less cash flow and equity.

If you’re looking to scale, examine the pros and cons of both, along with your borrowing ability and comfort level. Some investors prefer not to partner with others, in which case smaller short-term rentals could be a better investment. Hotels, however, generate more cash, equity, and the ability to exit quickly with greater profits due to increased cash flow—provided you know what you’re doing.

Find the Hottest Markets of 2024!

Effortlessly discover your next investment hotspot with the brand new BiggerPockets Market Finder, featuring detailed metrics and insights for all U.S. markets.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Property Insurance Is Changing—Here’s What to Expect Next Year

Property insurance is a key component in any real estate investor’s business plan. Depending on the area of the country you’re investing in, property insurance costs can add many thousands to your annual property expenses—and in some areas of the country, these are rising rapidly. 

Almost everyone knows by now that California and Florida are experiencing property insurance crises, with insurance increasingly scarce and/or unaffordable. This is, of course, ironic for investors because, in many other ways, these continue to be lucrative investment destinations. 

Here, we’ll look for silver linings for investors in these states. (Spoiler alert: There are a couple.) We’ll also take an in-depth look at destinations that have traditionally been seen as “safe” from the insurance point of view, thanks to a more stable climate. We’ll see how this is changing and point to the factors investors need to be aware of when doing property research.

The Midwest Is No Longer Automatically ‘‘Affordable’’

Of all U.S. regions, the Midwest has been investors’ favorite for the last couple of years. There are many reasons for this, but they can be effectively summarized as the golden combination of affordability and relative stability. The reasoning goes like this: The Midwest may not be as hot of a market as the South, but it will deliver steady returns because people are keen to move there, and property prices are more stable.

This reputation is beginning to shift, however, with the Midwest now experiencing increased pressures on its property insurance market. The reason is a changing climate. The Midwest is experiencing more rain and more frequent and intense storms, resulting in more damage to homes.

According to the 2023 U.S. National Climate Assessment report, ‘‘More frequent and intense heavy precipitation events are already evident, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.’’ It’s not just that the Midwest is getting more rain—annual precipitation has already risen by as much as 20% in some areas, according to the EPA. It’s the fact that heavy precipitation now tends to arrive all at once during extreme downpours. 

The results are obvious: heavy flooding. Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota all experienced historic flooding levels in June 2024 following heavy rainfall.

Extreme weather patterns are affecting the Midwest in more ways than one, however. According to a recent study of observational data from 1951-2020, Tornado Alley is shifting. Since the middle of the last century, ‘‘tornado activity has shifted away from the Great Plains and toward the Midwest and Southeast United States.’’ While everyone knows to expect tornado activity in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota, it increasingly includes places like Ohio, which recorded 71 tornadoes in 2024 so far

Additionally, the Midwest is already prone to seasonal thunderstorms, with lightning and hailstorms. These, too, are increasing in intensity, which means that the hail is larger and causes more damage to infrastructure and property.  

The impact on property insurance premiums is severe. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, premiums increased by 34% over just seven years. Some states recorded even faster hikes, notably 41% in South Dakota, which is significantly more than the national average of 34% over the same time span.  

When insurers aren’t raising premiums, they are reducing coverage. According to the report, increasingly financially stressed insurers ‘‘impose new conditions on coverage of common perils, such as wind and hail damage.’’

That’ of course, is because wind and hail ‘‘are second only to hurricanes in the damage they inflict,’’ which means they’re among the most expensive weather events for insurers. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), straight-line wind and tornadoes caused $246 billion in damage to U.S. properties from 2014 to 2023. Tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes, caused $695 billion in damage. While there’s a very significant gap between the costs of tropical versus nontropical weather events, the amounts are still huge. 

What do Midwest investors need to be aware of?

Hail, in particular, is now being treated differently by insurers in hail-prone areas of the Upper Midwest (e.g., Minnesota). While hail used to be covered in the same way as other types of natural disasters, i.e., with a standard deductible, the deductible is increasingly tied to the current value of the home and is around 2%. That can have huge implications for how much an investment property is actually going to cost you. 

Moreover, many insurers are refusing to provide full coverage for older roofs and are subtracting depreciation from the amount covered. 

The other big thing that’s happening (not just in the Midwest) is that insurers increasingly rely on newly available data about extreme weather patterns and increase their insurance premiums accordingly. In the world of climate data, hyperlocalism is now the thing, which means that two houses on the same street may have different risk profiles for the same type of weather event.

If you get substantially different quotes on two properties that are nearby/in the same town, it’s worth digging into why. Chances are high that there will be a weather-related reason.

The California Property Insurance Crisis Deepens

The situation is much more dire in California, where insurers’ responses to the intensifying wildfires are increasingly extreme: They are canceling policies, refusing to issue new ones, or even exiting the state altogether. At this point, we are talking about an exodus, with these insurance companies (all subsidiaries of Kemper Corp.) announcing earlier in 2024 that they would not be renewing their California policies:

  • Merastar Insurance Co.
  • Unitrin Auto and Home Insurance Co.
  • Unitrin Direct Property and Casualty Co.
  • Kemper Independence Insurance Co. 

In the meantime, large household names like State Farm, Allstate, Farmers, USAA, and Nationwide all announced that while they would not be leaving the California market, they would be significantly limiting new homeowner policies. 

The exact implications of this overall trend vary by insurer. For example, State Farm has mainly gone down the route of not renewing the policies it perceives as risky, with 30,000 California policies affected as of 2024. In a statement from last year, the company said that  it ‘‘made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.”

Other insurers, notably Farmers, are limiting new applications or drastically increasing wildfire safety standards for new applicants, which is what USAA has done. 

The California property insurance crisis is summarized by Bankrate as California homeowners ‘‘scrambling for coverage” or being ‘‘unable to find it.’’ Part of the problem is that California insurance rates have historically been lower than the national average, thanks to stringent insurance hike regulations enshrined in the Proposition 103 legislation. Under this law, insurance companies can’t raise premiums over 7% without first getting approval from California’s Department of Insurance.

What do California investors need to be aware of?

This used to be great news for homebuyers and investors: After all, who doesn’t want to pay less for their property insurance? However, as it turns out, this model works poorly for California’s ‘‘new normal’’ of wildfire risk. Insurers simply cannot afford the huge costs of repairing or rebuilding so many wildfire-damaged homes. 

All this doesn’t mean that if you were planning to invest in the California market, you necessarily need to reconsider. But it does mean that you need to tread very carefully when choosing an investment property. The easiest way to mitigate the risk of your deal falling through because you can’t find insurance is by buying a home that already meets California’s fire-hardening building codes, which have been in place since 2008. 

However, if you are buying a home in a fire-prone area that was built before 2010, the seller, by law, has to give you a written summary of an inspection report confirming whether the home meets current standards and what fire-hardening features it has. If it does not meet the standards, you have the right to refuse to close on the home.  

These are useful strategies for new investors. If you already own a property that’s near a wildfire risk area that was in a state of emergency, your insurer cannot cancel your policy for at least a year, which gives you time to explore other options.

Investors should also be aware of the fact that wildfire-related problems and risks are not confined to California, even while it continues to be the epicenter of the crisis. Pretty much the entire West Coast is now grappling with the same issues, with Oregon and Washington developing property insurance crises of their own. Other states to watch include Colorado and Montana, where intensifying wildfires are causing soaring premiums.  

Florida May Be En Route to Improvements

No other state has had it worse than Florida when it comes to the property insurance crisis. Florida has lost coverage from some 30 providers in the past few years, with over 10 going into liquidation since 2017. The difficulties Florida homeowners face when trying to find property insurance have become legendary. 

As in Midwestern states, roof damage from intensifying extreme weather events is the main factor in Florida’s insurance troubles. Of course, hurricanes are to blame for torn and destroyed roofs in Florida and parts of Louisiana rather than tornadoes or hailstorms

Many nonrenewals and cancellations we’ve seen over the past several years have cited roof age as the reason. There is new legislation on the homeowners’ side, however, which stipulates that companies cannot refuse insurance if a roof is less than 15 years old and has a life expectancy of five years at the time the policy is issued. And even if the roof is over 15 years old, if an inspector determines it has another five years, the homeowner may still be able to get coverage.

While there are signs that Florida is at least beginning to tackle its property insurance crisis with meaningful legislation, things are actually looking messier in neighboring Louisiana. This hurricane-affected state has had a unique three-year rule in place since Hurricane Katrina, which prohibits insurers from canceling or nonrenewing policies that have been in place for three years or longer. However, Louisiana has just relaxed this rule: It will not apply to policies taken out after Aug. 1, 2024. 

Technically, insurers won’t be able to cancel more than 5% of policies that are issued on homes in the same parish. In practice, however, insurers will be able to apply for permission to cancel more policies from the state insurance commissioner.

It remains to be seen how many policies will be nonrenewed or canceled, but if you are thinking about investing in southern Louisiana, you will need to be extra careful.

Final Thoughts

When we say, ‘‘be careful,’’ we mainly mean ‘‘do your research.’’ It’s much better to acquaint yourself with what’s going on in a local insurance market before just wading into it. And you need to adopt the same strategy insurers now commonly use to decide which homes are insurable. 

This strategy is granular and hyperlocal, with each home assessed individually. Remember: Even properties on the same street can have different risk profiles based on past extreme weather events. There’s a wealth of information available online about climate risk, but you should also speak to insurers directly when looking at multiple properties in a specific area.

This article is presented by Steadily

Steadily is America’s best-rated rental property insurance provider. Get coverage online in minutes for all property types and all policy durations, including short-term rentals. Visit Steadily.com to get a free quote today.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

13 Real Estate Hot Spots You Won’t Want to Miss Next Year

Certain cities across the United States are emerging as economic powerhouses, creating ideal conditions for real estate investors. 

I’ve published two previous articles on cities with growing tech hubs and high income increases, both of which are highly correlated with price appreciation. Just take a look at the relationship between income and price growth for the top 100 metropolitan areas: 

Now, for the third installment in this series, I’ve decided to filter and rank each city’s economy as a whole, under the assumption that the stronger a city’s economy is, the more likely wages will rise, and with them, real estate prices.

I’ve analyzed the data, crunched the numbers, and identified 13 cities with the strongest economies that should be ripe with investment opportunities. Read on to discover where you should be looking next to maximize your returns in 2024.

How I Calculated the Top 13 Cities

First, I downloaded employment and wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). I also included population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, I retrieved GDP-per-MSA data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Next, I calculated one- and five-year growth for population, total employment, and wages for each market. I also used the population data to help create GDP-per-capita data for each city.

Then, I filtered out all cities that had population, employment, or wage decline over the past year. The most robust economies shouldn’t be declining in any of these metrics.

I also only kept metros where the five-year wage and employment growth were greater than the national median (in addition to higher-than-median GDP per capita). I thought this was a good gauge of general economic growth.

Finally, I wanted to rank the remaining metros by job growth. So I created a “relevant employment growth” index that ranked five-year percentage employment growth while still keeping size into account (a 10% increase for a city with 1 million jobs is more impressive than a 10% increase for a city with only 50,000 jobs, but including only absolute growth into an index has its own problems). 

Note: Because I used some college-level data science to create the relevant employment growth index, I’ll spare you the details. But feel free to comment if you’d like me to explain how I derived it.

After filtering, I was left with 13 U.S. cities with the best economic metrics, ranked by relevant employment growth. If you don’t see your favorite metro in the list, it’s likely because it either had less-than-stellar employment growth or had an income decline over the past year. Many metros did.

The Results

Now, let’s jump into the results, going from the least relative employment growth to the highest.

13. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

The Allentown, Pennsylvania MSA has undergone a renaissance in the past few decades, from a failing steel manufacturing town in the 1980s to a growing hub for established businesses and startups alike. Allentown’s economy is currently supported by distribution, financial services, and healthcare jobs and remains in close driving proximity to Philadelphia (about one hour) and New York City (about two hours).

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $56,910.88
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 4.8%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 400,600
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 1.19%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.1%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022*: $53,539.79

*The most current GDP and population numbers are from 2022.

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $336,043.87
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 9.26%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,796.08
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.35%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.53%

12. Columbia, SC

The Columbia, South Carolina MSA is supported by the University of South Carolina, Fort Jackson, and healthcare and manufacturing companies. It’s also the second-most affordable market on this list (just behind Oklahoma City), with relatively high prices and rent growth.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $52,590.72
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 4.47%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 434,900
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 1.63%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.7%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $53,718.41

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $252,535.39
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 9.16%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,563.14
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.53%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.62%

11. Colorado Springs, CO

The Colorado Springs, Colorado MSA is supported by military, professional services, distribution, healthcare, and tech jobs. I think Colorado Springs is an example of a steady market that continues to show healthy growth. 

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $61,301.24
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 3.92%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 336,600
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 2.21%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.4%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $53,998.04

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $464,485.54
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 7.3%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,904.88
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 6.12%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.41%

10. Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC

The Greenville, South Carolina MSA is supported by distribution, professional services, and manufacturing jobs. It’s seen strong employment growth, particularly in the blue-collar and financial sectors.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $58,228.04
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 5.1%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 467,200
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 1.61%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.7%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $50,607.38

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $299,935.17
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 9.23%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,566.16
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 6.54%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.52%

9. Cincinnati, OH–KY–IN

The Cincinnati MSA is supported by healthcare, financial services, and logistics jobs. But I think Columbus has the better economy of the two Ohio metros thanks to its higher employment and wage growth. Keep reading past Fayetteville, Arkansas, to see Columbus’ metrics.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $57,448.04
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 4.21%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 1,166,200
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 0.8%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.7%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $69,222.47

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $288,937.75
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 8.61%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,546.9
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.15%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.54%

8. Fayetteville–Springdale–Rogers, AR

The Fayetteville, Arkansas MSA, commonly referred to as Northwest Arkansas, has an economic ecosystem supported by Walmart, Tyson Foods, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, and all the individual vendors that service these companies, comprising a healthy, growing economy. With strong job and wage growth, low unemployment, and appreciating prices, this market remains one of my top picks.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $54,845.96
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 6.21%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 311,900
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 3.24%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.0%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $56,074.19

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $342,107.28
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 10.86%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,612.96
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.51%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.47%

7. Columbus, OH

The Columbus, Ohio, MSA economy is incredibly diverse and supported by government, finance, healthcare, manufacturing, and tech jobs, and has seen strong wage growth in the past few years. If the property taxes were a bit lower, this might’ve been my favorite market. At a state average of 1.59%, I believe there are a few better metros for real estate investors. But if you don’t mind that, this market has excellent fundamentals.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $55,651.44
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 4.99%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 1,168,600
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 0.9%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.5%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $66,834.95

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $316,666.35
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 8.92%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,568.42
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 6.3%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.5%

6. Oklahoma City, OK

The Oklahoma City MSA has a growing number of professional services, healthcare, and government jobs supporting the economy. However, OKC sits in the heart of Tornado Alley, which drives up home insurance rates. According to Bankrate.com, “the average annual cost of home insurance is $4,846 for a policy with a $300,000 dwelling limit, which is 113% more than the national average cost of $2,285.” I’d prefer not to invest in a city known for its high occurrence of property-damaging weather events.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $56,676.88
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 3.92%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 706,200
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 1.56%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.5%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $52,153.23

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $237,117.57
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 7.96%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,365.59
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 5.66%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.58%

5. Boise, ID

Boise, Idaho, has seen a large increase in employment over the years. While unlikely to grow at the same rate it did during the pandemic, the city should continue to see healthy job growth for the foreseeable future. This is a solid market for any investor who can afford it. 

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $56,876.56
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 6.74%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 408,100
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 3.42%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.7%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $51,952.8

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $480,564.72
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 9.94%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,835.37
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.47%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.38%

4. San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX

San Antonio, Texas, offers many military, healthcare, and professional services jobs. The area remains relatively affordable and has solid employment growth. The only thing I don’t prefer is the high property taxes (a state average of 1.68%, even higher than Ohio’s). 

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $53,292.2
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 3.74%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 1,178,000
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 1.82%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 4.0%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $52,860.79

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $288,944.75
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 6.65%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,505.12
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 4.29%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.52%

3. Raleigh-Cary, NC

Raleigh, North Carolina, has seen growth in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and technology employment over the years, and it doesn’t look like it’s stopping anytime soon. STEM growth drives appreciation, and the rising number of STEM jobs will likely have a positive impact on price appreciation throughout the metro area in the coming years. This is currently one of my favorite markets due to its strong fundamentals, and I can’t recommend it enough.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $59,586.28
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 3.73%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 748,600
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 3.14%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.8%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $70,178.38

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $447,526.11
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 9.35%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,797.17
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 5.91%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.4%

2. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

The Tampa, Florida, MSA has experienced steady growth in the healthcare, finance, insurance, and technology sectors. Overall, it’s a good market with solid fundamentals and a diverse economy. However, insurance prices are likely to continue rising, as many properties are at risk from extreme weather events. Personally, I’ll be skipping this market.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $57,930.6
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 3.96%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 1,548,700
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 2.48%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.8%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $57,049.28

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $382,195.19
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 11.03%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $2,125.23
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 8.88%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.56%

1. Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, AZ

Powered by the nation’s largest nuclear facility (Palo Verde Generating Station) and containing the largest public university in the United States (ASU), it should come as no surprise that Phoenix is a booming metropolis. What is surprising is how much the city grew relative to its already-large size. The economy is diversified, ever-growing, and one of the strongest in the country. I also grew up here and have seen its enormous growth firsthand.

But does this growth have a downside? New-build developments may slow down—the Rio Verde Foothills neighborhood outside of Scottsdale had recently experienced a crisis when it lost its water supply (don’t worry, it’s back—just with a much higher utility cost to residents). 

Will Phoenix’s growth spur more water supply crises like this? Maybe, maybe not. But it may limit the rate of suburban sprawl, which may drive up prices in existing homes as demand for housing continues. If you can afford it, now may be an ideal time to enter this market.

Key economic indicators:

  • Average Wage in 2024: $63,566.88
  • Five-Year Compound Wage Growth: 4.41%
  • Total Employment in 2024: 2,413,300
  • Five-Year Compound Employment Growth: 2.58%
  • Unemployment Rate in 2024: 3.9%
  • GDP Per Capita as of 2022: $61,450.29

Affordability indicators:

  • Median Price in 2024: $459,067.25
  • Five-Year Compound Price Growth: 10.16%
  • Median Rent in 2024: $1,884.26
  • Five-Year Compound Rent Growth: 7.61%
  • Rent-Price Ratio: 0.41%

Final Thoughts

There’s no such thing as the perfect economy. However, each of these 13 cities saw wage, job, and population growth (and GDP per capita) greater than the national median over a five-year period, which could make them excellent markets for your next investment.

Personally, after I selected my market, I used the BiggerPockets Deal Finder to help me find properties that fit my investment criteria. It might be helpful for you as well.

Find the Hottest Deals of 2024!

Uncover prime deals in today’s market with the brand new Deal Finder created just for investors like you! Snag great deals FAST with custom buy boxes, comprehensive property insights, and property projections.

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

A Better Retirement After Buying Just ONE Rental (and Never FOMO-ing)

Mike Baum owns just one rental property, but this one property alone has changed his life. It’s allowed him to become such an investing expert that he’s constantly being asked for his opinion on the BiggerPockets forums, and he provides some of the most well-thought-out investing advice on the internet. So why does he have just one rental property, and why doesn’t he grow using his expertise? The answer isn’t that obvious.

You wouldn’t know it, but Mike is permanently disabled. After overworking so hard that he ended up losing his vision, he was placed on disability for the rest of his working career. This high achiever was forced to slow down and find something else that could replace his day job. Shortly after his diagnosis, he found BiggerPockets and turned a family vacation home into a short-term rental.

Now, he’s got systems and processes that help him self-manage with very few headaches, and he will probably keep this property as his one and only rental for life. Why didn’t he “FOMO” in when everyone was gobbling up real estate in 2020? Why didn’t he grow his portfolio to become the next tycoon? Mike has some clear answers for why he did what he did, and after listening to him, you might change what you want, too.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
As real estate investors, there’s a question we always need to be wrestling with. Is now the right time to expand our portfolios or should we be sitting back enjoying the portfolio we have or being patient and more opportunistic about finding deals? And for a lot of people who come on the show, either as guests or hosts, the answer is that they want to always be expanding and growing and scaling. But for other investors, being content with what they have is just fine even for years at a time. And today we’re talking to an investor who has carefully weighed all the factors. He’s done the analysis, and he has chosen to keep his portfolio literally as small as he possibly can. He has only one property. It’s very successful, but he only has one and he’s very knowledgeable. He knows everything there is to know about real estate, but he’s just kept it at that one property. And I was sort of fascinated by this and I think there’s a lot that we could all learn from this guest strategy.

Dave:
Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to the BiggerPockets podcast. Every Monday we like to start our week off by featuring a member of the BiggerPockets community and hearing about their investing journey. And today we’re hearing from an investor named Mike Baum. And fun fact, Mike is actually one of BiggerPockets communities top forum contributors. He has spent over 10,000 hours on biggerpockets.com posting and helping fellow investors learn about real estate. So if you’re a frequent visitor to our website, you’ve probably seen his name pop up, but Mike has a lot to share on top of just what he does for the community already. And in today’s episode, I’m going to talk to Mike about how an unexpected life change for Mike and a serious one started his journey in real estate. We’ll talk about how he selected his preferred strategy of short-term rentals and also why Mike has chosen to keep his portfolio small and how not investing can be an active and strategic decision. And this is going to be a great episode because I think it provides a really helpful and interesting counter narrative to what we hear most commonly in the real estate investing industry. And I get it. Not everyone wants to stay small, not everyone wants to scale, but I think it’s really beneficial for all of us to learn from people who are doing something a little bit different. And Mike fits that bill perfectly. So let’s bring ’em on. Mike, welcome to the show. Thanks for being here.

Speaker 2:
Thanks for having me, guys.

Dave:
Well, I am very curious to hear about your journey. And so let’s just start with your career. Prior to becoming a real estate investor, what were you up to?

Speaker 2:
So I was a engineer at Intel for 19 years. I was a product owner and what they call a technical marketing guy. So what I did was work with our IBM or Lenovo with some of those platforms and help them integrate our technology and supported our field sales staff. Plus I did demonstrations all over the country on stage and show prep and did shows and stuff like that. And then I did a ton of videos and how-tos and wrote a ton of technical documents. So that was my gig. Wow.

Speaker 2:
Yeah, and I did that until 2011 when I had a huge undertaking, was working 70 hours a week. I actually slept in the couch in our lab, just go, go, go, go, go to get a product launch completed. And then one morning I woke up and I couldn’t see. The next morning I could see, but I had one eye pointing up this way and one eye pointing this way, and it was a sixth and a third cranial nerve palsy. So that was the first indication. The stress of the work had put me over the edge. So basically Intel put me on disability short term, and then after about a year of, there was no improvement. There never really is in neurological degeneration. You can kind of arrest it as much as you can, but you can’t bring it back to where it was. So they put me on full-time disability, and that’s been 13 years now.

Dave:
Well, I’m sorry to hear that. It sounds like quite an ordeal. So did that mean you were left without an income after all that?

Speaker 2:
Yep. For me, yes. I mean, it’s not that we didn’t have any income. Intel has a very good taking care of their employees, so there’s a good solid long-term disability plan. And of course it requires that I sign up for Social security disability, which I did. So yeah, I’m on disability. It was a pretty drastic income reduction. My wife is working, so that is good. So it’s not like we’re broke, but we certainly went from upper middle class to middle class, I guess you could say. We were never rich,

Dave:
I’m sure is a change financially, but just emotionally and psychologically, that’s a big just life shift to being someone who’s working really hard to having to manage your output in a more concerted way At this point. Is that when you discovered real estate or started thinking about real

Speaker 2:
Estate? We’ve had a few rental houses we’ve bought and sold some stuff over time. Our vacation rental is located in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho on Lake Coeur d’Alene. And I’ve always wanted to have, I grew up there, always wanted to have a lake house, and a bunch of things kind of lined up for us to be able to afford to buy this house on the lake. And it was a way for us to replace because not contributing to retirement any longer because they have no way in normal ways. There are certain ways, but for the most part it’s very difficult when you’re on disability. You don’t have an actual earned income anymore, so you got to do something for retirement. So I figured, and initially we were not going to rent the house. We weren’t going to do a short-term rental. And basically BiggerPockets is what turned me all around to that. I have three kids, we have three kids and we have three grandkids now. So we figured, oh, we’ll have this lake house and we can go and I’ll hang out there. But I came to realize it’s going to sit empty 80% of the time. It’s eight hour drive from where we’re at to get there. It’s not something you can just kind of bop on over. And traveling with grandkids is certainly not easy for their age.

Speaker 2:
Pick up, pack up and drive eight hours across the state to get there. It’s easier now that they’re older, but back then they were very young. What year was this? 2017.

Dave:
Okay. So you, for a while after your diagnosis had got into real estate, it took a couple of years for you to start.

Speaker 2:
Yeah, well, we had a couple of long-term rentals we had sold.

Dave:
Okay.

Speaker 2:
Yeah. So I mean, it’s not that we were completely green, but never really looked at short-term rentals in 2017. It was kind of, that wasn’t to say the wild, wild west of short-term rentals, but it was a different world than it is today. So I mean, I got to get to know Luke Carl and Avery Carl on BiggerPockets. We joined, I think I joined a little after they did. And I started hanging out on the BiggerPockets short-term rental forum and was reading everything I possibly could about doing this. And we were a little nervous. I mean, when you, you’re first thinking about doing a short-term rental, you have this asset, I was like, you’re basically handing the keys over. It’s not a 1973 Toyota Corona, you’re letting your buddy borrow. It’s a whole house sitting on the lake filled with furniture. And when we got started, the house was completely empty, so we had to furnish it and get it all ready to go. And that took a long time. Not really that long, but it’s an expense and trying to figure it all out. But if it wasn’t for BiggerPockets, I don’t think I would’ve done it.

Dave:
Well, we’re glad to hear that and you’ve paid us back in spades because as I mentioned at the top of the show, Mike is one of the most prolific members of the BiggerPockets Forum communities, which we greatly appreciate. You’re always in there answering people’s questions. We got to take a quick break, but stick around because later in the show Mike’s going to explain why he’s almost immune to fomo or fear of missing out, and it’s super interesting. So stick around. We’re back with investor Mike ba. So what was the learning curve like you, because I imagine going from being in product development and software engineering, are there overlaps between that and managing a short-term rental?

Speaker 2:
There is because 50% of my job at least, was creating processes for people that needed to understand how to implement our technology. So you really just take that and you apply it to processes for short-term rental. I’m a huge believer in self-management of your short-term rental, but you have to have all your ducks in a row. You have to have everything working. You have to make sure your maintenance schedule is on right, on the money because the last thing you want is this X, Y, or Z breaking down. So all your hard systems need to have steady maintenance. You need to hire the right people to be a handy person to come over and take care of something. So you have to have somebody there. You have to have a top notch cleaner. And sometimes it’s going to take a while. I’ve been through four cleaners since we started.

Dave:
That’s actually not that bad. I think I’ve been through way more.

Speaker 2:
It isn’t that bad considering we’re really rural. I mean, we are 36 miles down the lake from Coeur over an hour to drive down there. And it’s a tiny little town, and there’s very few professionals of this kind. There’s another town about 18 miles farther south called St. Mary’s that has some, but the cleaner comes all the way from Coeur d’Alene. It’s a whole day job for her to drive down there, clean the whole house, top to bottom, do all the laundry, and then drive back. So that’s always a key, but getting all everything in place and all the processes in place, once those are running, then management becomes a lot easier. I’m a huge believer in personal communication with the guests. I don’t rely on automated communication. I don’t rely on bots of any kind to answer things. Somebody asks a question, does an inquiry on Airbnb or VRBO, I’m the guy who answers the question. I give them my personal cell phone number that they can get ahold of me anytime and I can count on one hand the amount of times I’ve been contacted for problems.

Dave:
Really?

Speaker 2:
Yeah. It’s been seven years.

Dave:
Is that because the house is just in great condition or you find great guests?

Speaker 2:
Both. I think I vet every guest. We do not have auto book turned on for anybody. Everybody has to talk to me and I got to get a feel for they are. We get a lot of fake bookings.

Dave:
Really.

Speaker 2:
Hi, this is Steve. We are looking at staying at your house. Are these dates available? You can almost hear it and it’s obvious the dates are available. We had one just come in the other day, November 1st through the 26th. I’m like, wow, that’d be a great booking. I’ve only had two bookings that long ever that were real, but I knew right away because of the wording. And then it takes them about a week and a half to get back to me when I say Yes, great. My wife and I and kids are going to be going on a vacation and my business is going to be paying for it. Can I please send you this fake third party out of country check?

Dave:
Oh gosh,

Speaker 2:
Give me all your personal information so we can make this happen. Yay. And you’re like, Nope, only work through the tool. I only take payments through the tool. Sorry. And then they disappear.

Dave:
Good for you. I mean, it sounds like you’ve got some really good systems in place. I want to take a step back quickly though, because you’re sort of in your timeline. You bought this house for personal use, you found BiggerPockets, and I think one of the common challenges that a lot of our audience hears is how long do you research and learn before just jumping in? Was it quick for you to just start renting it out or are you more the type that spent a lot of time educating yourself prior to, like you said, handing over the keys to this very valuable asset to people you’ve never met before?

Speaker 2:
Right. So analysis paralysis is probably the biggest hurdle for most folks who have never done anything like this before. It is a gigantic expense for most people, and it’s a real risk and roll of the dice. So both sides of that, what you just stated, because I am not risk averse, but I plan, plan, plan. If you fail to plan, plan to fail a L, you look at everything, you read everything. And I had an advantage being disabled. I basically had time so I could learn everything there was to learn. And being more technical minded, it basically allows me to get a better understanding of the way finance is supposed to work and how insurance is going to play out. I have a couple of algorithms that I have written that hunt the web that are for data that that’s why I can post Mike’s deals of the day because I scrub, I can scrub the internet on my own and find stuff that takes a while to become public to everybody else. That’s why BiggerPockets is, and I hate to keep coming back to that. I’m not trying to be a shill for BiggerPockets here, but that forum is so valuable because there’s so many of us on there that have done this and been doing it. And if you have a question, I can answer that question or John Underwood could answer that question or a dozen other people can answer that question.

Dave:
Well, first of all, Mike, if you want to be a shill for BiggerPockets, you’re in the right place. This is the one podcast you’re probably allowed to shill BiggerPockets as much as you want. We really appreciate it. But just so everyone knows, what Mike is talking about is a completely free resource to everyone. The forums are free. If you want to learn something about real estate, go ask a question. I think there are a lot of people who listen to this podcast who don’t even know these forums. Go check it out, ask a question, go see what other questions people are asking. I promise you’re going to learn something. And I think you’re right, Mike, I wanted to just get back to this idea of finding the right balance between preparation and fear. Everyone’s going to have some fear. That’s just a normal part of it, but you have to find the right level and the right way to cut it off and say, educating myself is not going to help me anymore once I’ve spent dozens or hundreds of hours, whatever it is, learning and reading, listening to the podcast at a certain point, you just sort of have to jump in.

Dave:
And it sounds like you did that and were you successful right away or did it take a while for your business to

Speaker 2:
It’s going to take a while.

Dave:
Yeah.

Speaker 2:
How long? The first year was lean, we lost money the first year because I was a little hesitant. We’re getting the house set up, we’re filling the house with all kinds of new stuff and I want to make sure that it works. I went through two different types of sheets before settled on a sheet brand that worked really, really well because the first one, really soft, super nice satine weave sheets that the first person with heels that were kind of needed some work on because they wear sandals all the time, pour the heck out of the sheets.

Dave:
Oh

Speaker 2:
Gosh. They were peeled up. You wouldn’t believe. So I had to toss ’em out after one stay, things like that. So your first year, anybody who’s going to do a short-term rental, your first year is probably going to be on the lean side. My area has got low saturation on Lake Coeur. There are not a lot of places for rent on the lake. I have dozens of people in competition, not thousands. So I price everything accordingly. But even then you can have a rough year. So you just really never a hundred percent all the analysis and all your thoughts and air DNA and the enemy method and going through and comparing everything, trying to set your prices and figuring out your occupancy and making sure you have the right amenities and the right stuff in the house isn’t a guarantee that you’re just going to knock it out of the park. So you have to go into it with a understanding that this is something that you could do less than break even. But like anything, no risk, no reward.

Dave:
Absolutely. And it sounds like, Mike, you got it together pretty quickly, I mean relatively quickly and in 2017, and by all accounts, from what we’ve talked about, you’ve run a successful short-term rental business. But one of the main reasons I was so excited to talk to you, Mike, is that you are clearly very passionate about real estate and about short-term rentals. You’re on the forums all the time. I can hear it in your voice, but you’ve also chosen not to scale your portfolio. You have one short-term rental and you’re happy with that. Tell me why you’ve made that decision.

Speaker 2:
So we have tried to buy a few other places. Unfortunately, as the farther down the road after Covid is when we started really starting to look well, the interest rates went nuts, and that was crazy. And property values went up and property values in an area where we were choosing to do our investing in Idaho, shot through the roof. I mean, it was one of the highest in the country.

Dave:
Oh yeah. I mean, if forever everyone listening, if you’re not aware, places like Quarter Boise just had some of the fastest appreciation in the whole country, was kind of going crazy during that time. But Idaho might’ve been the epicenter. Idaho and Austin I think were the two places that were just booming even more than the rest of the country. So sorry to interrupt, but go ahead,

Speaker 2:
Matt. No, no, that’s okay. Yeah, absolutely. Our house, our lake house is worth four times what we paid for it now.

Dave:
Oh my God. In seven years.

Speaker 2:
Yeah.

Dave:
So yeah, why buy poor if you’re doing it that well with your first one?

Speaker 2:
Well, we’ve looked at other places, did a scouting trip down to Sedona, Arizona, looking around there. We went out to New Mexico, angel Fire, looked at some things like that and all of it. We liked all of it, but unfortunately the places that we liked the best ended up either selling before we even got home, started talking about it, or they got pulled off the market or there was various different reasons. We took out a pretty good size HELOC on our primary, so we have cash for down payment and to get the house all prepped, and now we’re kind of in a holding pattern, but we found a place out on the ocean that we were looking at. It was a successful short-term rental. It was doing pretty well, and we were ready to pull the trigger on. It needed some updating, but we were ready for that.

Speaker 2:
And then the people pulled it off the market. That was late last year, so we looked at a couple other places, one in Coeur d’Alene, it was on the pond, Dorey River, which is a major inflow into Lake Pond Dorey, which is an enormous lake north of where we’re at. And it was beautiful. It was great. And they pulled it off the market as well. So it’s not that we don’t want to expand it, but now we’re getting to the point where my wife’s going to retire in a couple of years, and we started kind of late in life in this particular game. So had we known more earlier, I think we would’ve done better. If you’re younger, I think there’s a lot more, still going to be a lot more opportunity moving forward. It’s a more sophisticated market now than it was seven, eight years ago.

Dave:
All right. We got to take a pause for some ads, but we’ll back this week’s investor story on the other side. Let’s get back to the show. Has it been hard, Mike, to be patient? So much has gone on in the last couple of years. Is it like to take the patient approach?

Speaker 2:
Well, you know what? I’m not really much of a FOMO guy. Fear of missing out. It happens on occasion that I get frustrated, but for the most part, I look at it like, well, you know what? It just wasn’t meant to be, so I’m not going to worry about it. I’m just going to move on and see what else I find. I still scan. I spend actually a lot of time on Craigslist looking at buy owner stuff and what people have been trying to sell. I’ve been driving around North Idaho quite a bit, down back roads, seeing if there’s something interesting, just kind of floating around and I’ll write an address down and nothing’s popped up. But if you get mad and try to jump on every single deal that comes along, it’s going to bite you, in my opinion. Eventually it’s going to bite you. You really got to watch that.

Dave:
And what do you attribute that lack of FOMO to? I mean, I think it takes confidence, right? To not be jealous or running, chasing every little shiny object. How do you stay disciplined?

Speaker 2:
Well, I would have to say that it’s easier for me being someone who is older than, I mean most of the investors that come in that are asking questions, they’re in their twenties, twenties and early thirties, husband and wife or a single person trying to get started. They liked the idea of short-term rentals, and when I was younger, I was probably way more aggressive than I would be. Now, we have to plan for retirement. We can’t be, you have that looming over your head the entire time. Do I sit there and I just take $200,000 and put it down on black? Because sometimes you feel like that’s what you’re doing. You’re putting it all on black

Speaker 2:
Hoping that it’s going to pay out in the end. Now, it’s not like that, but every real estate deal is a bit of a gamble. You can plan and you can get processed. You can do all kinds of things, and you could still lose and nobody wants to lose. We saw a lot of that in the last few years. I think things have evened out now. So experience and just life experience in general and seeing things come and go and come and go, and your life isn’t worse because you didn’t jump on this or you didn’t jump on that. I mean, I don’t spend a lot of time kicking myself in the butt for not buying Apple at $25.

Dave:
Right? Yeah. That wasn’t the part of life you were in

Speaker 2:
Right at that time. I just don’t think about it. We get quite a few young folks coming in. They want to do short-term rentals. Off the bat, they’re single. And my to every young investor wanting to get started is to not do short-term rentals.

Dave:
Oh, really? Why is that?

Speaker 2:
Well, because there are better options to build a base off of.

Speaker 2:
There was one young guy, he’s 19, he’s in the military. He’s going to be able to take advantage of VA loans, and he wants to get into short-term rentals once he gets out in about three years. And I told him, what you should really do is take advantage of the VA loan. Or for those who don’t have access to VA loan, it would be FHA low down 3% down loans. Buy a duplex, buy a triplex, buy a fourplex, right? You buy something like that, you live in one and you have three renters. You do some minor rehab. You do it after a year, you have to live in the place for a year. Then you basically exit the place, rent that last unit, and then do it all over again. You have to convert that one FHA loan to a conventional, you refinance. Then you move over here and you do it again, and then you do it again, and maybe one more time.

Speaker 2:
And now you’ve got duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes, all of them producing all of them, income producing for you, maybe 10, 15, 20% at this point. After doing it for a few years, maybe you have one that’s paid off. You have all these assets that form this really, really nice piece of bedrock that you can build the rest. So if you’re young, you don’t have kids, you can move every couple of years or every other year or whatever without dragging a whole family and changing school districts and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Then that’s what I would do. And then once you do four or five years of that, then you can start looking at some other things.

Dave:
You’re speaking my language. I mean, that’s sort of what I did is just started with long-term rentals. And over time I’ve branched out. I started investing in syndications. I do some private lending. Now you do some different stuff, but I feel comfortable taking risk because I have a solid portfolio of low risk, high performing assets. And not all of them were amazing when I first bought them, but I bought 10, 15 years ago. And that’s the beauty of real estate is over time you hold onto these things, they perform.

Speaker 2:
Yep.

Dave:
Well, Mike, I want to just say thank you because I have only been hosting this podcast for a few months, but I’ve been a member of the BiggerPockets community for a long time, an employee for a long time. And it’s honestly, people like you who choose to share their time and share their knowledge with people for free out of the goodness of their heart, that it’s made the community so strong. So I just wanted to personally thank you. Thanks. So last question, Mike, what are you excited about in the short-term rental or real estate industry right now?

Speaker 2:
I think there’s a lot of opportunity to be had, unfortunately, at the expense of folks that were overzealous in their FOMO purchases of short-term rentals. I guess you could say. Sometimes you can almost feel the desperation of some folks just to get out from underneath that mortgage because they bought high at the top of the market. Their interest rate is crazy. Interest rates are starting to drop. I think we’re going to see a couple more drops in the next few months. I think it’s going to be a very interesting 2025.

Dave:
Yeah, likewise. Well, Mike, thank you so much for sharing your story and your insights with it. We really appreciate it. And if you want to connect with Mike, we’ll put his contact information, but just go check out the BiggerPockets forums. You’ll see him all over the BiggerPockets community. Thanks again, Mike.

Speaker 2:
Thank you. Have a good day guys.

Watch the Episode Here

https://youtube.com/watch?v=YfCudmjIFhE

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In This Episode We Cover:

  • Why you DON’T need a large real estate portfolio to find financial success when investing
  • Why Mike tells beginner investors that they should NOT buy a short-term rental property
  • The systems and processes Mike made to automate his vacation rental self-management (so he works less!)
  • One thing you should do NOW before you start investing in real estate (it’s free!)
  • The real result of “FOMO” investing and how to stop shiny object syndrome from blowing you off course
  • And So Much More!

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

Are Real Estate Syndications Dead?

Are real estate syndications dead? Some multifamily syndicators are making capital calls and hiding information from investors who anxiously wait (and pray) for their money to be returned. A lot is going wrong, so should you pause investing in real estate syndications for now, or should you write them off entirely? Brian Burke, who saw it coming and sold almost everything before prices fell, is on today to give us his answer.

Joining him is a fellow syndication investor and BiggerPockets CEO, Scott Trench, who’s had his fair share of syndication headaches over the past few years. We’re going back in time, talking about what exactly went wrong for multifamily syndications, why we saw a rise in untrustworthy/inexperienced syndicators entering the market, and why multifamily specifically is taking the majority of the headwinds.

We’re also sharing the numbers on the almost unbelievable amount of multifamily investors who have short-term loans coming due, all at a time when interest rates are still high and values are close to (if not at) the bottom. We’ll even talk about our own failed deals and whether or not we’d continue investing in syndications.

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Dave:
For anyone looking to invest in real estate, the more passive options like investing in a syndication can be really appealing. There are great returns and you pretty much don’t have to do anything. But in recent years, we’ve seen syndication returns diminish. So today we’re diving into what’s behind the trend and whether there are still good syndication deals to be found. Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and we’ve got a super fun episode for you today. We are joined by Brian Burke, who’s a seasoned multifamily investor. He is been on the show many times, and he always offers very spirited and fun takes about the state of the multifamily market. And we have the BiggerPockets CEO Scott Trench, who’s also an active investor in syndications. He participates as an lp, which I’ll explain in a minute, in a lot of syndications, as do I.
So we’re gonna have a really good discussion and debate about the topic are syndications debt. And in this conversation we’re gonna talk about the pretty rapidly growing number of distress multifamily properties. We’ll talk about how syndications arrived at this point, where there is distress in the first place. We’ll talk about some regional variances and some markets that have seen the worst multifamily returns, and we’ll talk about ones that have held up pretty well. Plus we’ll also be talking at the end about whether or not we’re still personally investing in syndications and how our current deals are performing. So let’s bring on Brian and Scott. Brian Burke, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me here, Dave. It’s great to be back. Always enjoy your colorful commentary, an honest commentary about the multifamily and syndication market. Scott Trench, thanks for joining us as well.

Scott:
Thank you, Dave. Super excited to be here.

Dave:
Well, I’m, I’m gonna outsource my job to both of you to just start here and just create some context around what we’re talking about today, which is of course, syndications, which in our world, at BiggerPockets, most of the time what we’re talking about is a multifamily syndication for, there are other types, but that’s mostly what we’re talking about. So, Brian, can you just explain to us what a syndication is and why the term syndication is so closely associated with multifamily, at least in our community?

Brian:
Yeah. So syndications really are just a vehicle to finance a business venture. And you know, I, I know on BiggerPockets we often talk about syndications in the context as a way to acquire large multifamily properties. And certainly that is one of the uses for syndication. But syndication in and of itself is really just a group of people getting together collaboratively to execute some business model. And that might be to start up a new company to make widgets. That could be a syndication, could be to buy, uh, office buildings, self storage, uh, any type of real estate. It could be a race horse. I mean, any kind of different thing that requires money to be pooled from a group of investors that’s managed by one person or one company is a syndication.

Dave:
So just to, to establish this for everyone, a syndication is a way to fund any type of business. It is a popular way to fund multifamily acquisitions, but not all multifamily acquisitions are syndications. It’s just one way to do it. All right. Next contextual background goes to you, Scott. There are two different classes. Uh, typically in a syndication, there’s something called the limited partner, an lp. There’s also a general partner, a gp. Can you tell us what those two things are?

Scott:
Sure. The general partner is typically raising the money and operating the deal. Hopefully they’re doing both of those things. In many cases, they and their team are doing both of those things. Sometimes duties are distributed, and I’m sure we’ll get into why that has created a little bit of chaos in the space here. And then the limited partner just basically hands over the money and most operating control and, you know, hopes that they did a good analysis in the front end and hopes to receive the, those returns in the back. That’s the blessing and the curse of passive investing in syndications. It is truly passive. You give up essentially all control, um, with limited exceptions once you hand your money over to a syndication, either in a single asset deal or a fund structure.

Dave:
Given what you said, what type of investor, let’s put the profile of the average investor who syndications appeal to, or who would you at least recommend consider being an LP in a syndication?

Scott:
Sure. I’ll build a profile of a typical lp. I mean, this can run the gamut from anybody, but the typical probably bigger pockets listener that folks might know or have met in the past that’s gonna be in this category of an LP is probably a modest accredited investor, right? So let’s talk about 1 million to maybe $5 million in net worth. Um, they can be, of course go up the whole gamut to institutional capital with hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in assets. But probably most people listening to this that would be relevant to the, uh, to thinking about investing in syndications are gonna be in that modest accredited investor category there. And the big theme is a mentality shift. Most of those people just don’t want to build big real estate businesses. Maybe they’ve got a career, maybe they just wanna live the financial independence, retire early lifestyle, and they want to put some portion of their portfolio in deals that provide either diversification away from traditional stock market investments, their existing real estate portfolio, um, or they want a different type of return, like cash flow, for example, in a preferred equity format. But that’s what I would say is a typical bread and butter limited partner in this space. I see Brian nodding his head and agreeing with, with most of what I’m saying there. I’ll talk about the GP next.

Dave:
Well, I, I feel so seen, Scott, I feel like you’re just describing me. I invested in syndications as an LP for a lot of the reasons you, you just listed. And I do think most of the people I’ve met who also invest in syndications sort of fit that bill. It’s not typically the first thing you do as an investor unless you have a, a lot of money and a lot of comfort with the real estate investing space. I’m actually gonna throw it to Brian though on the GP here, Scott, and, and ask him since he is a GP or has been in the past, I know he is not buying a lot right now, but is a gp. What’s the typical profile or who makes a good gp, Brian?

Brian:
Well, I think, uh, there’s a difference between the typical profile and who makes a good gp because there’s, there’s a lot of, uh, syndicators out there, quote unquote gps that might throw off the average and make typical a little bit less than what would be considered good . Uh, so I think, uh, a, a typical GP is somebody that’s working their way up the real estate investment ladder, and I’ll kind of layer this in with what I think makes a good GP to, is somebody who, uh, has invested all the way up from single family homes to small multifamily, to midsize multifamily, to large multifamily, has a long history of investing in real estate, successfully creating value, uh, for themselves and for their investors, and uses syndication as a tool to grow their business into something larger than they could grow on their own. Now we see a variety of syndicator types all the way from, you know, first time real estate investors who think that you can invest in real estate with no money if you just simply syndicate out large apartment buildings and have somebody else provide the cash.

Dave:
Is that not how it works?

Brian:
Well, yeah, that’s, it’s how it’s done in a lot of cases, , but that’s also where, you know, if you were to look at syndications that are going down in balls of flames, they, uh, tend to fit that description more often than not. Uh, now I think, you know, what makes a good syndicator is somebody that’s in this business as a financial services provider and recognizes that their role is to safeguard their client’s principle and grow their investments. Not someone who is in the business to become financially free, work the four hour work week or invest in real estate with no money, no skill, no knowledge, and do it on the backs of others. And, you know, I think the, the field is, is, uh, populated with people that fit all sorts of descriptions. And it’s really important that LPs or investors are very careful in making their sponsor selections. Because I think I’ve preached this a number of times on this show and elsewhere, including in my, uh, BP published book, that the sponsor that you invest with is more important than the deal you invest in because, you know, bad sponsors are out there and they’ll screw up a perfectly good real estate deal.

Scott:
I just wanna piggyback on a, a couple of items that we talked about here, right? I would just simply define the GP as a professional investor or that’s what they ought to be here. The GP in its definitional sense, raises the capital and deploys it. It’s an active role in managing the asset at the highest level. And they run the gamut from career professionals like Brian Burke here to these folks who bought, I mean, sometimes the rackets in the space get crazy. And now with the tide coming out, we’re seeing some of the folks that really shouldn’t have been in there or just doubled the penny over and over and over again, all the way through the peak, really starting to recede. And we’re starting to see that pain come out and LPs are gonna be the ones that are gonna get smarter. The GPS will just keep doing it, right? This is ingrained in some of them. There’s this, it attracts a certain high ego person.

Dave:
Oh yeah. Like Brian.

Scott:
Yeah, exactly right. , it attracts us. And, and it should, the, the allure of money is a motivator. And the l as the lp, you wanna align those interests with the, these gps so that they work the 60, 80, a hundred hour weeks necessary to get these deals through to completion and have the big payday at the end. But that’s been the, the problem in the space that we’re coming out. And I also wanna call out that I just slightly disagree with Brian on the, the sponsor is more important than the deal piece because I believe that, uh, you can invest with a great sponsor and if you buy at the peak at a three and a half cap, you lost everything. Didn’t matter how good they were, uh, to that front. And they can behave ethically and do all the right things. Maybe you should invested them again, but sometimes you’re gonna lose the deal too.

Dave:
But would a good GP buy at the peak with a three and a half cap, is the real question, right? It’s that, would a good sponsor do that?

Brian:
But what you’re describing there, Scott, is a risk adjusted return if you’re getting those high returns because of those ultra low cap rates you’re doing so at higher risk. And yeah, that’s how some of those deals blow up. And just to kind of dovetail onto something else that you said there about LPs and their knowledge, there’s an old saying that says, you know, when a deal starts out, a GP has the knowledge, the LP has the cash, and when the deal is over, they switch places, .

Dave:
All right, so now that we’ve gotten all those definitions outta the way and we’re all on the same page about what syndications are and the upsides and the risks, we’re gonna dive into the juicy stuff. Brian will walk us through the state of syndications today and how we got here right after the break. Investors welcome back to On the Market. I’m here with Brian Burke and Scott Trench talking about syndications. All right, well this has been helpful context to just make sure everyone understands sort of where we are and how we got here in, in the world of syndications. But before we get into where we’re at today, Brian, I’m just curious, you’ve been doing this a long time as a GP and I was just kidding about your ego. You’re a very humble, very competent person. Has it changed? I hear this narrative that social media sort of invented these sort of inexperienced, I should say, uh, GPS and that it got popular. But has this always been the case? Has there always been suspect operators in this industry?

Brian:
Yeah, of course there have, I, I had a friend of mine, uh, 15 years ago that lost her entire savings, investing in a real estate syndication when the sponsor turned out to be a crook and basically raided the account, stole the money and let the properties all go into foreclosure. Uh, she’s, you know, broke for life and he’s wearing an orange jumpsuit in a prison to this day. So, uh, these kinds of antics have been going on for a while. And, you know, that’s one of the jobs of a, an investor is to try to root that out. Now, one of the problems I think we’ve seen, uh, over the last, I’d call it maybe 12 years and got exacerbated over the call it, you know, 2019 to maybe 20, 23 period, is you have this blind leading the blind situation where you have newer gps that probably shouldn’t even be in the business but are able to be in the business because there’s this low barrier to entry.
And the low barrier to entry was there was a lot of LPs that had cash that didn’t know any better, and were funding these, you know, newer GPS in deals and, you know, basically nobody knew what they were doing. You know, the, the, the gps were inexperienced and, and untested. The LPs were just blindly throwing money around because it was a, it seemed like a better investment than maybe the stock market. And ultimately that, you know, led to complete collapse in a lot of these deals. And, and, and that’s really been part of it. Now, in the earlier part of this, uh, they were getting away with it because, as Scott alluded to, the market was re, you know, cap rates were compressing, rent growth was growing, interest rates were declining, and the market was essentially bailing out, uh, these blind leading the blind deals, and they were actually making really good returns.
And to your point, Scott, earlier, yes, they were even more than our returns in a lot of cases, I wasn’t willing to take the same amount of risk. So, you know, those days are over. And I think, you know, when you ask if things have changed, they’ve changed a lot because going forward, you know, you’re the operator’s skill and, you know, finding good deals is gonna make a world of difference because the market’s not going to bail you out. When things start to come around and get better, they’re gonna get better slowly, and it’s gonna take work and, you know, solid fundamentals to make these things pencil, not just blind luck.

Scott:
One of the things I wanna talk about is, you used the word antics, um, earlier, and one of the things that bugs me, right, is somebody raised a syndication in 2019, exited in 2021 or 20 18, 20 21, did really well and thought they were awesome and thought things were going well and raised a bunch more capital. You know, when, when going after it, let’s actually take our 20 years of syndicating and all that type that take that hat off and just say, is that unethical? Is that, do we have, is it an ethics problem or is it a, is it just a, a mistake? Is it just people getting too excited on there? Like again, I bought that three and a half cap and I, I don’t think the operator was unethical. I think that was just very silly. In hindsight, we should obviously not have bought a three and a half cap multi-family deal. Um, and those days aren’t coming back. So what is your opinion on that, Brian?

Brian:
Yeah, I, that’s, that’s a great question, Scott. And I think, uh, I think there’s unethical operators out there, and I think that there’s ethical operators that don’t know any better and got in over their head. And, you know, you see the whole, the whole, uh, bit of it there was, I remember looking at a deal one time where it was so badly messed up, and it was a newer property in a great market, and it was just fundamentally operating horribly. And when I asked, I was trying to dig in to figure out, you know, why is this such a problem? Obviously the owner couldn’t possibly be an idiot because this was being sold as part of like a five property portfolio. And, and so I’m talking to the broker, I learned that the, the operator had bought thousands of units in about a two year period of time.
And this was, I think around 20 18, 20 19, and then decided to take management in-house and go vertically integrated, did that, but really knew nothing about what he was doing. So he hired all the wrong people, he had a lot of turnover, people were quitting. The thing just fell into complete chaos. And ultimately it got so bad that they couldn’t even evict non-paying tenants because the syndicator wasn’t even, didn’t pay the bills to their eviction company, and the eviction company wouldn’t process evictions for them. It was that bad. And, and so, you know, I don’t think the guy was unethical. I think he just got in way over his head and didn’t appreciate the risk of growing too quickly. And, you know, when you have early success, you think you’re invincible. And that real estate is like being a kid in a candy store. Everything looks like a deal. I mean, isn’t there an old saying, like, when you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And it’s kind of the same thing with, you know, some of these groups that got in and had early success in a really good favorable market environment, uh, that think that they did that ’cause they were great operators and really they did it because they had high rent growth and cap rate compression. So not unethical, no, but certainly disastrous.

Scott:
One other thing i i, that always comes up for me when I think about this situation is the incentive misalignment. When you buy a hundred million dollars of real estate as a gp, you often collect a one to two and a half percent acquisition fee. Forget the other millions of dollars in fees potential that can come up in that situation. You got two and a half million dollars for buying a few apartment complexes in there. And look, I am all for paying a gp, right? If I’m gonna give somebody a hundred grand, I want them to earn a high enough salary where they’re not worrying about their side hustle or their Instagram account or whatever it is. I want them earning enough money to be focused full time, and I want them to have a huge carrot. I want them to have many millions of dollars at the end of that. I just want them buying their beach home after my money is returned , not with the money I just gave them. How important do you think that structure is in creating misalignment here? It’s very easy to convince yourself that what I’m doing is ethical when the more I buy, the more money I make right up front, right? Is that a part of this?

Brian:
I think it’s a part of it, but maybe not. It, it just depends upon the, again, going back to the sponsor, right? For a newer sponsor that’s doing this ’cause they don’t have any money, uh, the, the lure of a big payday, even if it’s a few hundred grand, is overwhelming to them. And, you know, they’ll, they’ll take a 300,000, $500,000 acquisition fee for a deal that they have no money in just because they can, you know, whether it’s a good deal or not, no one cares. Or at least on the GP side, you know, that’s not, that’s not their focus right now. Somebody that’s been in this business for the long haul, on the other hand, I think looks at it differently. You know, the way I look at it is I look at the future potential of, you know, the aggregate of acquisition fees and other fees that you earn over the long haul. And if you screw up a deal, you have a real tough time raising money for the next one. And if that next deal doesn’t happen, that next fee doesn’t come in. And you really have to look at this as a career, not as a transaction. And I think that’s kind of the difference between what you see with newer sponsors and season sponsors.

Dave:
All right. This has been a great conversation about the state of syndication, specifically what’s going on with LPs and GPS right now and some of the challenges that have arisen over the last couple of years. But what we’re here for today in this podcast is to talk about are syndications dead? Are there good syndications to be invested in today? Will there be good deals in the future? And so I think we need to turn our attention now towards the state of multifamily in general, not just the the ownership structure of a syndication, but what is going on with the asset class. Most people like Scott and myself as LPs invest in in today’s day and age. So Brian, maybe you could just give us an overview of h how would you describe the multifamily market today?

Brian:
Total crap . Uh, that’s, that’s, that’s probably the best, the, the best way I could put it. If I’m, if you really want me to be succinct and clear,

Dave:
I said in the intro that you’d offer colorful commentary and you’re, you’re living up to the billing. Thank you, .

Brian:
Well, you know, I, I try, if you look at some data on how far prices have collapsed since the second quarter of 2022 and look at peaked trough measurements, uh, I’m seeing reports of like 25 to 30%. Now, if I look at data myself from deal to deal, uh, peak to trough, I’m actually seeing deeper decline than that. Uh, about 35 to 40% in value. And here’s an example. We had a property that I had an accepted LOI, uh, that I was looking to buy in 2021 for $55 million it brand new construction. And the seller, after accepting the LOI didn’t sign the purchase agreement because he said, you know what? I think I’m selling this too low. I’m just gonna keep the property and sell it for more next year. Now, how do you think that worked out for him? Well, I’ll tell you how it worked out.
Uh, he’s still trying to sell it. They just brought the property back to me. My new offer was $35 million, so that’s $20 million less for the same property and I’m underwriting to essentially the same performance. Now, I’ve never been more happy that I didn’t get a deal, I’ll tell you that. Uh, but that’s an example, just a real live deal example of how far values have come down. Now why is that? There’s a lot of reasons. I think I described this on a previous show as a traffic collision where if you imagine a four-way intersection and all the lights are green and from one direction you have interest rates from another direction, you have rent growth from another direction, you have cap rates and from another direction you have expenses. And they all went the wrong direction at the same time and they collided in the middle of the intersection and left this tangled mess of metal. And that’s what we’re dealing with right now. That’s the state of the mar multifamily market. Now we’re at the bottom. That’s another discussion, but it’s certainly, I think we’re closer than we, uh, than we have been.

Scott:
I love that. I just wanna agree very, uh, emphatically with Betty, the points Brian made. I will say, I’ll go, I’ll even one up a couple of those and say, if interest rates are 5%, cap rates should be 6%. I bought a deal at a three point a half cap. That thing should be trading at a six cap. Like that’s what I would be wanting to buy it at today. One of the things Brian didn’t say is, transaction volume is not happening in this space. So even more than what you’re seeing from a a, a valuation drop in the multifamily space, you’re seeing no transactions, right? We’re, we’re doing a, a capital call on a deal. I meant, and I don’t know if there’s any comps to, to tell what the thing is worth at this point and that should scare multifamily investors that are out in, in the industry right now.
So there’s no comps. I believe that multi-family properties should trade at a premium to borrowing costs. Uh, fundamentally I think that’s an absolute, like that’s a, a fundamental thing for me. I’m not gonna put any more money into multifamily until that is true. The opposite of that, buying at a cap rate that is the same as your debt costs or below it in a negative leverage environment fundamentally means that you are all in on NOI growth either through rent growth or expense, um, expense reduction. So you better have a real good plan if you’re gonna go into something like that. Or you better pray that the market delivers, uh, massive rent growth that will bail you out because that’s the only way out of a negative cap rate situation. Um, and then you have the supply headwinds. I mean, this is the year 2024 with the most multifamily construction hitting the market ever.
You talk about how there’s a housing shortage all you want, multifamily developers are doing everything they can out of their own pocketbooks to solve that housing shortage problem. So we have debate on the demand side, but the brutal reality of what is going to happen to you on the supply side will drive your absorption down and will drive your rents down at the same time. And that will happen through the middle of next year. It will abate in 2026 by that point. So maybe you get some rent growth at that point. But this pain is here through 2025. And I don’t think there’s a world where cap rates don’t end up being above interest rates in markets like a place like Austin, for example, uh, in the near term. So I think that that’s, that should scare the heck out of people and I’m very bearish on the space for the next 12 months in most regions.

Dave:
Yeah, I was actually just gonna ask you about some regional changes and uh, shout out to our colleague Austin Wolfe, who pulled some data for us about the multifamily market. And Austin, Texas is one of the places he pulled Scott. And to your point, just in the last year, they’ve had 28,000 units delivered in Austin and rent for multifamily has gone down 6%. Just like you said, even though there is population growth, even though there is employment growth markets like that, where there’s just this oversupply are getting hammered. Meanwhile, if you look at markets, to your point, Chicago places in the Midwest where there is a lot less multifamily construction rents are still growing. So even though Brian, uh, categorically described multifamily, uh, as total crap, I think was exactly the words you used, I agree, uh, there are, of course there are of course regional differences, but I think the national summary is spot on.

Scott:
But even Chicago, right? Like I, I don’t know what’s going on with cap rates, but it’s hard for me to imagine that the asset value is not impaired. So like in Chicago, I would be surprised if you’re seeing cash flow really getting crushed for many in the multifamily space. I’d love to hear some feedback on that. I’ll not be surprised to hear it getting absolutely wrecked in a place like Austin, which by the way, that’s just the, that’s just the, the rent growth, the expense growth in the south has been even worse. You have huge increases in insurance and that is the worst possible thing for a multifamily operator. ’cause there’s nothing you can do about it. And it just gets taken right outta NOI and right outta your valuation on top of whatever cap rate expansion that you’re seeing in the asset. So I worry like in a place like Chicago, you’re still gonna see valuation declines, but your cash flow has an evaporated and in Austin you’re seeing both.

Brian:
Well, one one quick comment is that, uh, the, the things that you described there, Scott, are the very reasons why I haven’t bought anything in three years. I’ve been completely pencils down. I think a lot of prudent buyers have been completely pencils down, which is why transaction volume is off 80%, uh, from the peak of the market. So that, that definitely speaks to, uh, to why no one’s buying. You can’t, you can’t make the numbers pencil simple as that. Now, can you make the numbers pencil in some markets, perhaps, but it’s still difficult. Now, Chicago has actually had a higher, uh, level of transactions in a lot of other markets because it does still have rent growth and the cap rates never got as low. So the cap rate decompression has been less of a factor than it has been in other markets, uh, just because of that.
But I can’t find deals in any market right now that make any sense at all. Now, if I were to find them, uh, it depends on how you’re evaluating them. If you’re looking solely at like historical, uh, near term rent growth, the Midwest markets have been kind of ruling the day over the last couple years while the Sunbelt markets, which were far favored in earlier years have been getting hammered. Now, having said that, they’re getting hammered mostly because of new apartment deliveries. You know, like, like you said, Scott, the developers recognized that there was massive rent growth and they wanted to capitalize on that by building more units. And boy did they ever, uh, now that’s starting to fall. I mean, construction permits are down 50% over last year. There’s a lot of units still in the pipeline that will be built and delivered. But when those are done and delivered and leased up, the market’s gonna get back more into balance.
Now that’s gonna take one to two years for that to play out. But when that does, I think that the southern markets, the sunbelt markets are gonna once again return to be the bell of the ball because you still have people moving there. And I always believe that you want to invest where people are moving to, not where people are moving from. So if you’re looking at this in the very short term, you know, maybe those sleepy Midwestern markets look really good, but if you’re looking at this in the long term, uh, those, uh, Sunbelt markets will look much better. And there may be an opportunity to buy some undervalued distressed assets in the next year or two in those markets at the bottom, and then capitalize on the ride back up after all the new apartment deliveries have tapered off.

Dave:
Okay, time for one last quick break, but if you’d enjoyed the conversation so far, if you’re curious about passive investing, BiggerPockets has a brand new podcast for you. It’s called Passive Pockets, the Passive Real Estate Investing Show. And you can listen and follow now wherever you get your podcasts. We’ll be right back. Welcome back to On the Market. Let’s jump back in. All right, super helpful. Brian, I have one more question for you about this. Uh, tell me about distress in the market. ’cause you, it’s like every day in the Wall Street Journal or some financial news talking about, you know, some credit emergency in the commercial real estate space. Are you seeing a lot of distress in the multifamily market? And if so, is it coming from banking or where is it coming from?

Brian:
There is a lot of distress and it’s coming mostly from loan maturities and, uh, floating interest rates. You know, your fixed rate loans that still have many years left on them. The, the subset of deals that rather maybe small subset of deals financed that way, uh, are doing fine. You know, their values have declined, but they’ll ride it out. ’cause you know, their debt service hasn’t, uh, gone up and their maturities aren’t steering ’em in the face. So those deals aren’t, aren’t really, uh, problematic, but there is a lot of distress that’s, uh, coming forward in shorter term lending. And, um, you know, Austin pulled up some great data before this show, uh, talking about, uh, 8.4% distress rates in the multifamily lending sector. Uh, that some data that came through and, and I actually had seen that data, and there’s newer data now, uh, from the same source that that multifamily distress rate has reached 11%.
Now the headline is, wow, multifamily distress is 11%. That’s a lot. The nuance though is that data was restricted to a subset of loans called CMBS, which was commercial mortgage backed securities, which comprises only about 10% of the multifamily market, uh, for financing. So if 11% of 10% are in distress, that’s only 1%. But what about the other 90%? How were they financed? Well, a lot of ’em were financed with short term bridge debt that had three year maturities. Now, if the CMBS is generally a five year maturity, and if 11% of those loans are in, uh, distress because of a maturity issue, which, which is the case in most of those, that means that, you know, you’ve got 5-year-old loans reaching maturities they can’t get out of. What about the 3-year-old loans that are now reaching maturity? There’s a bigger number of those. And, and this is where I think things start to get kind of interesting. I got some data from Yardi Matrix on this acquisition since 2020 with two to three year loan maturities. There’s 3,200 properties and these are, uh, multi-family properties, a hundred units and larger. 3,200 buildings were purchased since 2020 with two to three year loan maturities. That’s a lot of inventory.

Dave:
Wow.

Brian:
Uh, since 2021, there were 1700 properties with floating interest rate loans. There’s 3,500 properties with construction loans between 2021 and 2023. Now, construction loans, for those of you who don’t know, tend to have short maturities. Generally two years, maybe three years, maybe five years if you’re lucky.

Scott:
They’re just hard money.

Brian:
It’s, it’s essentially hard money and or bank money, which is recourse, which is a real, uh, a whole other can of, and there’s over 2000 properties with debt service coverage ratios, uh, less than a break even. And, and that’s just in this subset of data that was found. And there’s concentrations of this in certain markets. , you’re talking about crap here,

Scott:
You’re stressing me out, man. Please stop. Please stop. , I’m just kidding. Keep going with this in a second here. But I wanna interrupt and I wanna talk, I wanna talk about this deal that you passed that you didn’t get the deal you used to . Let, let’s go through that example. Okay, 2021. Let’s say you buy this thing for $55 million with one of these three year fixed rate GSE debt loans, right? Today it’s worth $35 million. What would’ve been your debt to equity when you bought it?

Brian:
Well, it would’ve, when we bought it, you know, generally those three year loans are 80% to cost, sometimes 85% to cost. So your debt to equity is really high. You know, your sometimes, you know, 70 to 80% is debt and the rest is equity, and that’s all gone. It’s, it’s a hundred percent wipe out.

Scott:
Let’s literally do that math. It’s down $20 million. So you would’ve bought with, with, uh, $11 million in equity and 44 on your GSE debt. The NOI has gone nowhere to refinance it today. What would, you know, what, what would that take? How you, you’d have, you’d have a $35 million property. E the equity is well gone. How much would you need to raise to refi it?

Brian:
Well, I can tell you that in preparing to write this offer, uh, the debt sizing for the acquisition this time around was 25 million. So that’s the size of the loan. So now let, let me clarify one thing before we get too far down this road. I would never have bought that property with a high leverage three year loan. Uh, we would’ve been at like 50 to 60% LTV with 10 year maturity. So I wouldn’t be stuck in that position. But other buyers who were looking at that deal at that time would’ve been looking to finance it that way.

Scott:
But that’s it. You just said there’s 3,300 deals that did that. You just said that. That’s right.

Brian:
Right

Scott:
On. That’s right. So, so those deals, so now you’re the operator on that deal. Are you, and, and let’s not, let’s not take you, let’s take somebody who’s a little bit more naive and not as you know, in this, the one of these folks we talked about earlier in the call, are they gonna actually say that the deal is now worth $35 million?

Brian:
No. And you know how I know that they aren’t? I, so I have a deal that, that I got stuck with when the market, uh, fell. Uh, we had it in contract to sell, but the switch got flipped on the market and the buyer couldn’t close because the market had declined. So I still own that property. I got a broker’s price opinion of value on that property. And when the broker, uh, had the number for me, he called me on the phone instead of sending me the price opinion, he called me on the phone and he said, you know, this is what the number is gonna be. Do you want me to send it to you? And I’m like, of course I do. Why wouldn’t I want you to send it to me? He said, because a lot of my clients are asking me not to send the broker’s opinion of value, because if they, if I did, they would have to share that with their investors, and they don’t want their investors to know. Wow. And I was floored. I couldn’t believe it. I mean, sponsors are actually hiding this stuff from their clients.

Dave:
Okay. There’s the immoral, uh, GP that you were talking about, Scott,

Scott:
And that’s the, that’s, that’s the problem.

Dave:
Yes.

Scott:
Right? Like that, that I see in here. So you just described all that, but what is happening out there is that $55 million deal that’s now worth $35 million is getting capital called by the sponsor. Yeah. Who’s saying it’s worth $45 million and somehow they’re making that case look palatable to investors. And that’s showing up in the BiggerPockets forums, for example, and on passive pockets as a question. And I think that’s, I I think that you’re gonna see transaction volume down until cap rates are at least at or above interest rates for the time being here or until the supply abates. But that’s the decision that syndicators and their LPs are facing with right now. And Brian, I guess the question here is what do you ethically do in that situation?

Brian:
Well, I’ll tell you what we did. I mean, in the deal that, that I just described to you a second ago, uh, I, we fully disclosed what the value was. You know, I’ll take the phone calls from people who are like, oh my gosh, I can’t believe the value’s falling that much. I mean, what are you gonna do? That’s the truth. All you can do is tell the truth. Sponsors ethically should just be telling their investors the truth and let the chips fall where they may, that’s what they should be doing. Now in terms of like this, uh, $55 million deal that we were describing before, if you finance that thing at max leverage, let’s say 80% to cost bridge debt, that’d be a $44 million loan, $11 million in equity. Now it’s worth 35 and your loan is 25. So to refinance the $44 million loan with a $25 million loan, you need $19 million of equity, right?
So there’s your capital call, but here’s the rub. You only raised 11 million. So that means you would have to be asking your investors to put in basically two times what they originally put in just to salvage this deal. It’s a complete wipe out. The best choice for the sponsor in this case is they have to let the lender, they would have to let the lender foreclose take the property back and everybody’s a hundred percent wiped out. And you’re seeing that happen in some of these deals for that very reason. And there’s 35, 3200 of ’em here that might be in that position. Now, us as a buyer in the future, those are the deals I want to be buying because those are the ones I bought after we came out of the last recession when I was buying stuff at 50 cents on the dollar from lenders. I mean, that day could come again.

Dave:
Well, that, that just sets up a great transition to what the future holds. To answer the question of our episode, our syndication’s dead. I feel like we’ve sort of answered it. Uh, I’ll, I’ll defer to you, but my summary of this conversation is that syndications aren’t dead, but multifamily is dead right now, let’s just call it. It will of course come and run through a cycle, but it’s not the structure of syndications that’s causing problems, it’s just the multifamily market that’s causing problems. Would both of you agree with that?

Brian:
I would agree with that as a, uh, broadly, yes, certainly there’s some problems with some syndications

Dave:
Yes,

Brian:
Uh, where people run over their head. But the, the most of the issue here is actually with the market. And I think the market’s been in the toilet for three years. That’s why I haven’t bought anything for three years. But from every disaster opportunity is bred there, there will be a moment when, uh, multifamily acquisitions make a lot of financial sense. Uh, I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but that day is coming and there will be opportunity. I mean, this isn’t all doom and gloom. Uh, housing is a, is a very valuable and sought after resource and it always will be. And you know, this, this too shall pass.

Scott:
I’ll also chime in that I had a debate with our analyst Austin, who is phenomenal. And I told him about how supply is such a good predictor of negative rent growth like in Austin. And here’s the silver lining for everyone listening here. He said, Scott, that’s right, generally, but what you missed here is that long term that supply growth is correlated with even better rent growth and appreciation on assets in those classes. So if you’re in a place like Austin, for example, that new supply that’s all coming on the market has a high correlation to predicting long-term success. So it’s not all doom and gloom forever, uh, but you’re gonna be in a lot of pain of you have some of a, a loan maturing in the next year or two, I think, in those markets.

Dave:
Well guys, I have to say this, this episode came at the right time for me. Someone sent me a, a multifamily deal the other day that I’ve been looking at. It’s pretty interesting actually. But I think you talked me outta it, . So I’m gonna pass on it. Thanks for the advice. Well, Brian, thank you for joining us, Scott, as well. Of course, if you wanna connect with either of these two, we’ll put their BiggerPockets profiles in the show description below. Scott, thanks for being here.

Brian:
Thank you Dave

Dave:
And Brian, always fun to have you.

Brian:
Thanks for having me back, Dave,

Dave:
For BiggerPockets. I’m Dave Meyer and we’ll see you next time. On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we wanna extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

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In This Episode We Cover

  • Real estate syndications, general partners, and limited partners explained
  • Why the multifamily real estate market is a “traffic collision” in 2024
  • Areas of the country with the highest/lowest risk for real estate syndications
  • The astonishing amount of distressed investors with short-term loans coming due
  • Our own failed investments and whether we’d still invest in syndications
  • When multifamily real estate investments could finally rebound and become investable again
  • And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.