Austin’s housing market braces for cool down after COVID

by Diego Bernal | Dec 9, 2025 | News Feed

Austin’s housing market braces for cool down after COVID

Why this “housing cool down” matters in Austin right now

For much of 2020–2022, Austin real estate felt like it was operating on fast-forward: bidding wars, waived contingencies, and prices rising so quickly that buyers struggled to keep up. The post-COVID chapter looks different. A housing cool down doesn’t mean the market is “bad”—it means the balance of power is shifting, and the rules of the game are changing.

Today’s Austin market is being reshaped by several forces at once: the return-to-work effect (more in-person expectations changing where people want to live), an inventory surplus compared with the tight years, affordability pressure from higher mortgage rates, and demand that’s become more selective. For buyers, that can translate to more choices, more negotiating room, and fewer “take it or leave it” decisions. For investors, it raises the bar on deal quality, underwriting, and property selection.

This article breaks down what caused the cool down, what the data signals typically mean in Texas, and how buyers and real estate investment strategies can adjust—plus a Texas metro comparison to keep Austin’s story in statewide context.

From boom to breather: a quick recap of Austin’s post-COVID shift

Austin’s pandemic-era surge had several well-known ingredients: ultra-low mortgage rates, remote work flexibility, strong inbound migration, and a tech-forward economy that supported higher incomes. That combination produced rapid price appreciation and historically low inventory.

The “cool down” is best understood as the market normalizing after an unusually hot stretch. Instead of buyers competing for scarce listings, the market has moved toward more typical seasonal patterns: slower activity in late fall and winter, a spring pickup, and a more pronounced summer plateau—especially when rates are elevated.

What a cool down looks like on the ground

• More homes for sale: buyers see an inventory surplus relative to the frenzy years, particularly in certain suburban and new-construction corridors.
• Longer days on market: well-priced, move-in-ready homes still sell, but overpriced listings often linger.
• More price reductions: sellers “test” the market less successfully than in 2021–2022.
• Negotiations return: concessions (closing costs, rate buydowns, repairs) become realistic again.

What caused the housing cool down in Austin?

There isn’t a single switch that flipped. Austin’s housing cool down is the result of multiple demand and supply changes happening at the same time.

1) The return-to-work effect reshapes location preferences

Remote work supercharged Austin’s appeal. When offices loosened attendance rules, households could prioritize lifestyle, space, and affordability. Austin benefited from that flexibility, especially among buyers relocating from higher-cost coastal markets.

As more employers adopt hybrid or in-office expectations, the return-to-work effect changes the “map” of demand:

• Commute sensitivity increases: some buyers shift interest closer to major job centers and established commuting routes.
• Suburban premium softens in places: areas that spiked when space mattered most may see more competition from closer-in neighborhoods.
• Rent-versus-own decisions change: households uncertain about long-term work arrangements may rent longer rather than buy immediately.

This doesn’t erase Austin’s long-term job story, but it does make demand less “anything goes” and more neighborhood-specific. That’s why two homes at the same price point can behave very differently depending on commute access, school zones, and nearby amenities.

2) Higher mortgage rates reset affordability—and buying power

Even without a recession, higher rates alone can cool a market by reducing what buyers can comfortably finance. When the monthly payment jumps, many buyers either:

• drop to a lower price tier,
• pause and wait for better rate conditions, or
• expect the home to be more “perfect” for the money.

In practice, that means fewer emotional overbids and more value-focused decision-making—especially for first-time buyers.

3) Inventory surplus: more supply, more choice, less urgency

An inventory surplus doesn’t always mean there are “too many homes” overall—it means there are more listings relative to active demand than the market had during the tightest years. In Austin, that surplus tends to show up unevenly:

• New construction and newer resales: when builders deliver a wave of homes, buyers get options and leverage.
• Similar homes clustered together: when multiple comparable properties hit the market at once, sellers must compete on price and condition.
• Investor-heavy segments: where demand was fueled by short-term expectations of rapid appreciation, listings can rise when returns compress.

For buyers, more inventory is usually good news: you can compare layouts, negotiate repairs, and avoid rushed decisions. For sellers, it means pricing and presentation matter more than ever.

4) Demand becomes more selective (not necessarily “gone”)

Austin still benefits from population growth and job creation, but buyer behavior has changed. After the COVID-era scramble, today’s buyers often:

• insist on inspections and appraisal protections,
• push back on functional obsolescence (dated kitchens, worn roofs, HVAC near end-of-life),
• prioritize energy efficiency, and
• compare monthly payments carefully against renting.

That selectivity can feel like a slowdown—even if the market is simply returning to a more balanced pace.

5) Investor math is tighter than it was in 2021

In the hottest period, many investors relied on rapid appreciation to make deals work. In a cooler market, cash flow and realistic rent growth matter more. With financing costs higher, a property that once penciled out may now require:

• a lower purchase price,
• a different financing structure,
• stronger rent-to-price alignment, or
• a longer hold horizon.

This is one reason some segments experience more listings: certain owners choose to sell rather than accept lower returns.

Is Austin becoming a buyer’s market?

Many locals are asking a simple question: “Is this finally a buyer’s market?” The honest answer is that Austin can feel like a buyer’s market in some price bands and neighborhoods, while still acting competitive in others.

How to think about “buyer’s market” in plain terms

In a buyer’s market, buyers generally have more leverage because there are more homes for sale than there are ready, willing, and able buyers at current prices. Common signals include longer days on market, more price cuts, and sellers offering concessions.

In Austin, a buyer’s market dynamic often shows up when:

• there are many similar listings competing for attention,
• homes need updates and are priced as if they don’t, or
• the property sits in a segment where affordability is stretched.

Where competition can still be strong

Even during a housing cool down, certain homes remain in demand:

• Well-located, updated homes: close to major employers, popular corridors, and strong amenities.
• Homes priced correctly from day one: realistic pricing can still create multiple-offer situations.
• Scarce property types: for example, a true single-story home in a sought-after neighborhood can attract quick interest.

What it means for Austin buyers: practical advantages and smart next steps

If you’ve been watching Austin real estate from the sidelines, the cool down can be an opening—but only if you use your leverage wisely. Here’s how buyers can approach the market with confidence.

Step 1: Get clear on payment comfort, not just purchase price

In a higher-rate environment, the monthly payment is often the real constraint. Before touring homes, estimate your comfortable payment range (including taxes, insurance, and HOA dues when applicable). That helps you avoid falling in love with homes that strain your budget.

• Green flag: you’re shopping with a monthly payment target and room for maintenance.
• Red flag: you’re maxing out approval because “prices might go up again.”

Step 2: Get pre-approved (and understand what it really means)

Pre-approval is more than a checkbox—it’s your proof of ability to close, and it helps you negotiate. In Austin’s shifting market, sellers may accept lower offers from buyers who look solid on financing.

Simple pre-approval steps:

• 1) Choose a lender: compare rates, fees, and responsiveness.
• 2) Submit documents: income, assets, credit authorization, and employment details.
• 3) Review your numbers: ask about loan type options and estimated cash-to-close.
• 4) Request a pre-approval letter: tailored to your offer price.

• Green flag: your lender can explain rate locks, points, and total closing costs clearly.
• Red flag: vague estimates or slow communication—delays can cost you a deal.

Step 3: Use the inventory surplus to comparison-shop like a pro

More inventory means you can take a more analytical approach:

• compare multiple neighborhoods at the same price point,
• look at recent sold comps (not just list prices), and
• factor in “hidden” costs like roof age, foundation maintenance history, and HVAC lifespan.

In Austin, it’s common for two homes listed at the same price to have very different long-term ownership costs. In a cool down, buyers can—and should—pay attention to those differences.

Step 4: Negotiate strategically (price is only one lever)

In a buyer’s market environment, negotiations often expand beyond sale price. Depending on the property and seller motivation, buyers may be able to request:

• Seller-paid closing costs: to reduce your cash-to-close.
• Rate buydown credits: temporary or permanent buydowns can help payment affordability.
• Repair credits or repairs: especially for big-ticket items uncovered in inspection.
• Flexible closing timeline: helpful when sellers are coordinating a move.

Pros and cons of common negotiation options:

• Lower price
  • Pros: reduces loan amount; can help long-term value.
  • Cons: doesn’t always reduce monthly payment as much as credits when rates are high.
• Closing cost credits / rate buydown
  • Pros: can materially reduce payment or upfront cash.
  • Cons: subject to lender limits; best evaluated with a loan estimate.

Step 5: Don’t skip inspections—use them to protect your budget

Austin’s competitive peak saw some buyers waive inspections. In a cooler market, that’s usually unnecessary and risky. Inspections help you understand the home’s condition and future expenses.

Inspection steps for first-time buyers:

• 1) Schedule quickly: within your option period timeframe.
• 2) Attend if you can: you’ll learn how the home works and what needs attention.
• 3) Prioritize big-ticket issues: roof, HVAC, foundation, plumbing, electrical, drainage.
• 4) Request repairs or credits: focus on safety and major defects, not cosmetic preferences.
• 5) Re-check documentation: permits, warranties, and service records when available.

• Green flag: seller provides maintenance records, disclosures, and allows thorough inspections.
• Red flag: resistance to reasonable inspections or a pattern of quick cosmetic “flips” hiding deferred maintenance.

What it means for sellers: pricing, prep, and avoiding stale listings

Even though this article focuses on buyers and investors, sellers are part of the story. Austin’s housing cool down changes what works—and what backfires.

Pricing is a strategy, not a wish

In a market with an inventory surplus, “aspirational pricing” can lead to longer days on market and multiple price cuts, which often signal weakness to buyers. Many successful sellers now aim to:

• price close to recent closed sales (not peak-era headlines),
• account for condition and updates honestly, and
• create momentum early, when a listing is freshest.

Condition and presentation matter more during a cool down

Buyers are less willing to overlook dated finishes or functional issues when there are more choices. Small improvements can have outsized impact:

• fresh interior paint in a neutral tone,
• professional cleaning and landscaping refresh,
• fixing obvious deferred maintenance (leaks, broken fixtures, HVAC servicing),
• clear documentation of repairs and upgrades.

Concessions can be a smart alternative to price cuts

When rates are elevated, a concession that supports a rate buydown can attract payment-sensitive buyers without slashing the headline price. The best approach depends on the buyer pool, the neighborhood, and how the home compares to nearby alternatives.

Real estate investment in Austin during a cool down: what changes, what doesn’t

A slower market doesn’t eliminate real estate investment opportunities—it changes where they are and how they should be evaluated. Austin can still be compelling for long-term investors, but the era of “buy anything and wait” is less reliable.

Underwriting shifts: from appreciation-first to fundamentals-first

In a cooler phase, investors tend to focus on:

• Rent-to-price alignment: does current rent support the purchase price and financing?
• True operating costs: taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance, management, and vacancy.
• Realistic rent growth: based on neighborhood supply and comparable rentals.
• Exit strategy flexibility: can you hold longer if the resale market is soft?

In Texas, property taxes can materially affect cash flow. Investors who underwrite conservatively—especially on taxes and insurance—are typically better positioned during a housing cool down.

Watch the pipeline: new construction and competitive rentals

One Austin-specific dynamic is how new construction can influence both resale competition and rental supply. When builders deliver a large volume of homes or offer buyer incentives, resale listings may need to compete more aggressively on value. On the rental side, an influx of new units can flatten rent growth in certain submarkets.

Where investors may still find opportunity

• Quality long-term holds: homes in stable, high-demand areas where tenants value schools, commute options, and amenities.
• Value-add with discipline: modest renovations with clear cost control and realistic after-repair value assumptions.
• Properties with unique appeal: layouts, lots, or locations that are harder to replicate.

Common investor mistakes in a cool down

• Overestimating rent growth: especially when inventory surplus exists in nearby rentals.
• Ignoring insurance and tax trends: costs can rise even when price growth slows.
• Banking on a quick resale: days on market can stretch; carrying costs matter more.
• Assuming “Austin always goes up”: Austin has strong fundamentals, but timing and entry price still matter.

Austin vs. the rest of Texas: a Texas metro comparison

Austin’s story is closely watched statewide, but it doesn’t always match what’s happening in other major metros. A Texas metro comparison helps clarify what’s local versus what’s broadly Texan.

Why Austin can cool faster than some metros

• Faster run-up: markets that appreciated quickly often normalize more visibly.
• Tech and professional services influence: hiring cycles, office policies, and equity compensation can affect demand.
• New supply in growth corridors: when more homes come online, inventory surplus becomes more noticeable.

How that compares with Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio

While all Texas metros feel the impact of mortgage rates, each has different demand drivers and housing supply patterns:

• Dallas-Fort Worth: often supported by broad corporate relocations and a large, diverse job base. Inventory and pricing can vary widely by suburb, but the metro’s scale can absorb supply differently than Austin.
• Houston: typically more affordability-driven with a deep and varied housing stock. Price moves can be steadier in many submarkets, and the metro’s size creates multiple “micro-markets” behaving differently at the same time.
• San Antonio: often viewed as more value-oriented, with buyers comparing payments closely. It can attract spillover demand when Austin affordability tightens, though commuting practicality matters.

The takeaway isn’t that one metro is “better.” It’s that Austin’s housing cool down can be more pronounced because the preceding run-up was intense and because its demand is sensitive to the return-to-work effect and to higher-end affordability constraints.

Seasonal patterns in Austin: why timing feels different now

Texas real estate has seasons, and Austin is no exception. The difference today is that seasonality is more noticeable when the market isn’t overheated.

Typical Austin seasonality (in plain English)

• Spring: more listings, more showings, and often the strongest competition.
• Summer: active, but buyers may become more price-sensitive; heat and travel can slow momentum.
• Fall: activity tapers; serious buyers and sellers remain, but urgency drops.
• Winter: fewer listings and fewer buyers; motivated parties can sometimes negotiate more.

In a cool down, sellers who list at the wrong seasonal moment with aggressive pricing may sit longer. Buyers who shop in slower periods may find better negotiating conditions—especially on homes that have been on the market long enough to invite offers.

How to read the market: indicators that matter for Austin real estate

Headlines can be confusing, especially when one report says “prices are up” and another says “prices are down.” Austin’s market is best understood through a few practical indicators.

Inventory and months of supply

Inventory surplus is often discussed in terms of “months of supply”—how long it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace. Higher months of supply generally signals a shift toward a buyer’s market. Lower months of supply typically favors sellers.

In Austin, changes in months of supply can happen quickly when buyer demand pulls back seasonally or when more new listings hit the market at once.

Days on market and price reductions

When days on market rise and price reductions become common, it usually means buyers have options. That’s a classic housing cool down pattern. It also means the best listings (well-priced, well-presented) stand out more clearly than during the boom.

Pending sales vs. new listings

Watching the relationship between new listings and pending sales can help explain momentum. If new listings outpace pending sales, inventory builds. If pending sales start catching up, the market can stabilize—even if it’s not “hot” again.

What buyers should watch in 2026: likely scenarios (not guarantees)

No one can promise where rates or prices will go next, but buyers and investors can prepare for a range of outcomes. Here are a few reasonable scenarios for Austin real estate as the market continues to digest the post-COVID era.

Scenario A: Gradual stabilization with selective competition

If rates ease modestly or incomes rise enough to offset payment pressure, Austin could see steadier demand. In that environment, the market may feel balanced overall, with competitive pockets for high-quality homes.

Scenario B: Extended cool down with ongoing inventory surplus in certain submarkets

If affordability remains tight and supply continues to deliver in specific corridors, buyers could keep leverage in those areas. Sellers would need to price realistically, and investors would need stronger cash flow fundamentals.

Scenario C: Re-acceleration in limited segments

Even in a cooler market, some segments can heat up quickly—especially if a neighborhood has limited resale supply or if a school zone becomes particularly sought-after. This would likely look like “micro-markets,” not a citywide frenzy.

Actionable takeaways: how to move forward with confidence

If you’re buying a home in Austin

• Lean into the buyer’s market moments: compare options and negotiate beyond price.
• Keep inspections and appraisal protections: a cool down is not the time to take unnecessary risk.
• Focus on livability: commute realities and the return-to-work effect can influence resale appeal.
• Ask for concessions strategically: closing cost credits or rate buydowns can matter more than small price cuts.

If you’re investing in Austin real estate

• Underwrite conservatively: especially taxes, insurance, maintenance, and vacancy.
• Don’t rely on fast appreciation: make sure the deal works on fundamentals.
• Study supply pipelines: inventory surplus can be hyper-local and tied to new construction.
• Plan your exits: be prepared for longer resale timelines.

If you’re selling in Austin

• Price for today’s buyers: not yesterday’s headlines.
• Compete on condition: address deferred maintenance and present the home well.
• Consider concessions: they can attract payment-sensitive buyers in a high-rate environment.

Bottom line: Austin cools, but the market grows up

Austin’s housing cool down after COVID is less about a collapse and more about a reset. The return-to-work effect, affordability pressure, and an inventory surplus have shifted Austin real estate into a more negotiable, more discerning environment—often closer to a buyer’s market than the city has seen in years.

For buyers, that can be a welcome change: more time to decide, more leverage to negotiate, and more protection through inspections. For real estate investment, it’s a reminder that the best deals are built on fundamentals, not hype. And in the broader Texas metro comparison, Austin’s shift stands out—but it’s still part of a statewide story shaped by rates, supply, and the ongoing evolution of where and how Texans live and work.

The Future of Texas Housing: Growing Inventory and What It Means for Homebuyers

by Diego Bernal | Nov 15, 2025 | News Feed

The Future of Texas Housing: Growing Inventory and What It Means for Homebuyers

For years, many Texans felt like they were shopping for homes in a sprint: listings disappeared in days, bidding wars were common, and buyers had to compromise on location, condition, or price just to get under contract. In 2024, the conversation shifted. Active listings across Texas climbed more than 30% year over year, a meaningful jump in Texas home inventory that signals a more balanced market taking shape.

This matters because inventory is one of the clearest “temperature checks” for real estate. When more homes are available, buyers gain choices, sellers face more competition, and prices tend to stabilize—especially when higher mortgage rates limit what buyers can comfortably afford. In plain terms: growing housing supply Texas can reduce the pressure-cooker dynamic and create a healthier, more predictable market.

Below, we’ll break down what rising inventory means for supply and demand, how it changes negotiating leverage, what homebuyers should focus on right now, and a forecast-oriented look at what could happen by 2026–27 if inventory continues to build. Along the way, we’ll highlight the practical takeaways—green flags, red flags, and common mistakes—to help you shop with confidence.

Why Texas Home Inventory Is Rising in 2024

Texas is not one single housing market. Dallas–Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and the fast-growing Hill Country and suburban corridors each behave differently. Still, the statewide rise in inventory reflects several overlapping forces that many Texans are seeing on the ground.

Higher rates changed affordability and slowed demand

When mortgage rates are elevated, monthly payments rise quickly. That reduces the number of buyers who can qualify for (and feel comfortable with) a given price point. As demand cools, listings tend to stay active longer, which mechanically increases Texas home inventory even if new listings don’t surge dramatically.

More new construction in key metros added options

New home construction has been a major part of housing supply Texas, especially around Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and in many suburban master-planned communities. Builders can respond faster than the resale market because they’re delivering completed homes and offering incentives to move inventory—an important factor in how affordability is evolving.

Seller expectations are adjusting after the “peak frenzy” years

In a fast market, many sellers price high and still receive multiple offers. In a more balanced market, overpricing leads to longer days on market and price reductions. As more sellers test the market and adjust, overall active listings can rise.

Seasonal patterns still matter in Texas

Texas typically sees more listings and activity in spring and early summer, a slowdown in late summer, and a quieter winter period. In 2024, the usual seasonal lift has been layered on top of a broader inventory expansion, making the increase more noticeable to everyday buyers browsing online.

How Inventory Affects Supply-and-Demand Dynamics (And Why It Matters)

At its core, housing is like any other market: price and leverage are influenced by the balance between supply (homes for sale) and demand (buyers ready and able to purchase). Inventory is a practical way to measure that balance.

Understanding inventory in plain English

When people talk about inventory, they’re usually talking about “active listings”—homes currently for sale—and often translating that into “months of inventory.” Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell the current supply of homes at the current pace of sales.

• Low inventory: Fewer choices for buyers, stronger competition, faster sales, and more seller leverage.
• Rising inventory: More choices for buyers, slower sales, and increased pressure on sellers to price accurately.
• High inventory: Buyers can be selective; sellers may need stronger pricing, better condition, and concessions to win offers.

What “balance” looks like in practice

A balanced market is not “bad” for sellers or “perfect” for buyers—it’s healthier for everyone. Buyers can make thoughtful decisions without panic, and sellers who price correctly and present the home well can still sell on a reasonable timeline.

With Texas home inventory up significantly in 2024, many areas are moving away from the extreme shortage conditions of prior years. That shift is one reason you’re seeing fewer bidding wars and more normal negotiations in many zip codes.

Inventory, price growth, and real estate affordability Texas

Inventory doesn’t automatically mean prices will fall. But rising supply often cools rapid price appreciation. That matters for real estate affordability Texas because affordability is driven by both home prices and the cost of financing. Even if mortgage rates remain elevated, slower price growth (or modest price declines in specific neighborhoods) can help stabilize monthly payments over time.

What Inventory Growth Means for Market Balance Across Texas

Texas is experiencing a gradual rebalancing. Instead of one statewide story, think of it as a map of micro-markets. Some neighborhoods are still tight—particularly those with great schools, short commutes, and limited new construction. Others have shifted quickly due to a surge of new builds or a concentration of similar resale listings competing head-to-head.

Where inventory growth tends to show up first

• Areas with heavy new construction: Suburban corridors where builders have added supply can see faster inventory growth and more incentives.
• Price-sensitive segments: Mid-range and move-up buyers often feel rate pressure the most, which can slow demand and lift inventory.
• Homes that need work: When buyers can choose, they often avoid major repairs unless the price reflects the condition.

Where demand can still outpace supply

• Established neighborhoods with limited turnover: Older, built-out areas often have constrained supply.
• Homes with standout value: Updated homes priced right still attract quick interest.
• Entry-level pockets with limited inventory: Some starter-home segments remain competitive due to persistent demand.

The takeaway: rising housing supply Texas improves buyer options, but it doesn’t eliminate competition everywhere. The best strategy is local and data-driven—neighborhood by neighborhood, not headline by headline.

Impact on Sellers: Pricing Power, Time on Market, and Competition

Inventory growth changes seller leverage. In the strongest seller markets, sellers could set terms and buyers accommodated them. As Texas home inventory rises, sellers increasingly need to earn the sale by pricing accurately, preparing the home, and being flexible in negotiations.

1) Sellers’ pricing power is moderating

When there are more comparable listings, buyers can walk away from an overpriced home and choose another. That pushes the market toward more realistic pricing and reduces the “name your price” environment that dominated earlier years in some Texas metros.

Common seller mistake: Pricing based on last year’s peak comps rather than current competition and current buyer payment sensitivity.

Green flag for buyers: A seller who has priced close to recent comparable sales and is open to reasonable requests is often a sign of a workable deal.

2) Average time on market tends to rise

As inventory grows, it’s normal for homes to take longer to sell—especially if they’re not updated or if they’re competing with new builds offering incentives. Longer “days on market” doesn’t automatically mean something is wrong with the property, but it does change negotiation dynamics.

Buyer tip: Look closely at how long a home has been listed compared to the neighborhood average. A listing sitting longer than most may indicate overpricing, condition issues, or simply a seller who needs time to adjust expectations.

3) Competition increases among similar listings

In neighborhoods with many homes of similar size and layout, sellers must differentiate. That could mean fresh paint, staging, pre-listing repairs, or offering concessions. In 2024’s environment, condition and presentation matter more than they did during the most frenzied years.

• Seller “must-dos” in a higher-inventory market: strong photography, clean and decluttered spaces, clear repair disclosures, and pricing that matches the home’s true condition.
• Seller “nice-to-haves”: pre-listing inspection, roof certification (when available), and an allowance for minor updates.

Impact on Buyers: Negotiation Leverage, Concessions, and Smarter Choices

When people ask if it’s a buyers market Texas right now, the most accurate answer is: it depends on the neighborhood and price range. But broadly, rising inventory improves buyer leverage compared to the recent past.

1) More negotiation leverage on price (but not everywhere)

In many Texas markets, buyers are seeing more price reductions and fewer multiple-offer scenarios than in prior years. That can open the door to negotiating the purchase price—especially if the home has been sitting or if there are clear condition issues.

How to use this leverage wisely: Base your offer on comparable sales, the home’s condition, and how it stacks up against active competition. A low offer without support may be ignored, but a well-justified offer often starts a productive conversation.

2) More leverage on closing costs and rate buydowns

One of the biggest shifts with rising inventory is not always the sale price—it’s concessions. Buyers may be able to negotiate for seller-paid closing costs, prepaid items, or a mortgage rate buydown (common with builders, and increasingly seen in resale transactions too).

• Pros of negotiating concessions: can reduce cash-to-close and lower monthly payments, improving real estate affordability Texas.
• Cons: concessions may be limited by appraisal value and loan program rules; they also require careful contract wording.

3) More time to do due diligence (and fewer “panic decisions”)

In a tight market, buyers sometimes waived protections just to compete. With more inventory, many buyers can keep important contingencies in place, schedule thorough inspections, and evaluate the neighborhood more carefully.

Buyer green flag: A seller who allows reasonable access for inspections and provides documentation (survey, receipts, permits when applicable) is often easier to work with through closing.

What Buyers Should Look For Now: Timing, Neighborhoods, Condition, and Leverage

If you’re shopping in 2024 and into 2025, the “best move” is usually not trying to perfectly time the market. It’s using today’s inventory growth to improve your options and terms. Here’s how to approach it step by step.

Step 1: Get clear on timing—and what “timing” really means in Texas

Texas seasonality can affect both selection and competition.

• Spring to early summer: more listings, more choices, but also more buyer activity.
• Late summer: still good selection in many areas, sometimes with more motivated sellers after peak season.
• Fall: fewer new listings, but sellers who remain often want results before the holidays.
• Winter: lowest activity, but sometimes the best negotiating environment—especially for homes that didn’t sell earlier.

Practical guidance: If you need choice, shop in the seasons with higher inventory. If you want negotiating leverage, look for the periods when competition thins and “days on market” trends up.

Step 2: Shop neighborhoods, not just cities

Rising Texas home inventory doesn’t lift all boats equally. A growing suburb with new construction may feel very different from a close-in neighborhood with limited turnover. Before you fall in love with a specific house, evaluate the micro-market:

• How many similar homes are currently for sale?
• How quickly are homes going pending?
• Are price reductions common?
• Is new construction competing nearby?

Buyer green flag: A neighborhood with stable demand (homes still moving) and enough supply to allow negotiation often offers the best blend of choice and value.

Step 3: Pay extra attention to condition—and the “hidden costs” of a home

When inventory is tight, buyers accept more deferred maintenance. When inventory rises, you can be pickier—and you should. Condition affects not only repair costs but also insurability and long-term resale value.

• Key Texas condition checks: roof age, foundation performance (look for cracks, sticking doors, drainage issues), HVAC age, and evidence of past water intrusion.
• Insurance-related red flags: older roofs, outdated electrical panels, repeated water claims, and properties in higher-risk flood zones (even outside mapped floodplains).
• New construction considerations: review warranties, confirm what’s included, and still get an independent inspection (often at multiple phases if possible).

Common buyer mistake: Focusing only on cosmetic updates while missing expensive systems (roof, HVAC, plumbing, foundation, drainage) that can change the true cost of ownership.

Step 4: Use your leverage strategically (not aggressively)

In a rising-inventory market, leverage is real—but the best outcomes usually come from a balanced approach that keeps the deal moving.

• When to negotiate price: overpriced home, long days on market, clear comp support, or visible condition issues.
• When to negotiate concessions: payment sensitivity, first-time buyer cash constraints, or when appraisal risk makes a big price cut less likely.
• When to negotiate repairs: health/safety items, functional issues, or items that impact financing and insurance.

Step 5: Strengthen your position with a clean offer

Even in a softer market, sellers still prefer certainty. You can be competitive without overpaying by making your offer straightforward.

• Include strong financing documentation: a true pre-approval (not just pre-qualification) and clear down payment sourcing.
• Be realistic on timelines: align closing dates with lender and title company capacity.
• Limit unnecessary contingencies: keep essential protections (inspection, financing) while avoiding overly complex terms.

How the Process Works in a Higher-Inventory Market (Simple Step-by-Step)

Inventory changes the tone of the transaction, but the core steps still matter. Here’s a straightforward roadmap for Texas buyers navigating a market with more options.

1) Pre-approval: Set your budget based on payment, not just price

In today’s rate environment, payment is the decision-maker. A lender can help you estimate monthly costs including principal and interest, property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA dues (common in many Texas subdivisions).

• Green flag: A pre-approval that includes a credit review, income documentation, and a clear explanation of cash-to-close.
• Red flag: Shopping without understanding taxes and insurance—two major variables in Texas monthly payments.

2) Search strategy: Track active competition and price reductions

With rising Texas home inventory, you can compare more homes side by side. Pay attention to what’s sitting and what’s moving; that’s often more informative than list price alone.

3) Offer and negotiation: Ask for what you need to close confidently

In many areas, buyers can negotiate more than just price:

• Seller-paid closing costs
• Rate buydowns (common with builders; possible on resale)
• Repair credits or targeted repairs
• Flexible possession or leaseback terms (when appropriate)

4) Inspection period: Use it to confirm condition and plan ownership

Texas buyers typically use the option period to complete inspections. In a market where you have more choices, don’t skip this step. Focus on big-ticket risks and safety issues first.

• Prioritize: foundation/drainage, roof condition, HVAC function, plumbing leaks, electrical safety, and signs of water intrusion.
• Plan for: routine maintenance and “day one” costs like locks, filters, minor repairs, and pest prevention.

5) Appraisal and underwriting: Expect a more data-driven valuation

With more listings and slower price growth, appraisals may lean conservative in some areas. That’s not necessarily bad; it can protect buyers from overpaying. If an appraisal comes in low, inventory conditions may strengthen your ability to renegotiate.

6) Closing: Verify your numbers and avoid last-minute surprises

Review your closing disclosure early. In Texas, property taxes can be a major part of the monthly payment. Make sure you understand escrows, prorations, and whether any exemptions (like homestead) will apply after you purchase.

What This Means for Price Stability and Real Estate Affordability Texas

With inventory up, the market’s center of gravity often shifts from rapid appreciation to price stability. That doesn’t mean prices can’t rise—Texas still benefits from job growth, in-migration, and long-term demand—but it does suggest more normal outcomes: smaller year-over-year changes, more variation by neighborhood, and fewer “straight up” charts.

Why inventory growth can support price stability

• More choices reduce bidding wars: fewer buyers competing for the same home reduces upward pressure.
• Comparable listings keep pricing in check: active competition becomes a ceiling on what buyers will pay.
• Concessions become more common: sellers can preserve headline price while helping buyers with closing costs, supporting deals without dramatic price swings.

Affordability: the Texas-specific mix of prices, rates, taxes, and insurance

Real estate affordability Texas is shaped by more than the sale price. Texas has no state income tax, but property taxes can be significant, and insurance costs have been a growing concern in many areas. Rising inventory can help by slowing price growth and increasing concessions, but affordability will still depend heavily on financing costs and local tax rates.

Buyer tip: When comparing neighborhoods, ask for realistic monthly payment estimates that include taxes, insurance, and HOA dues—not just the mortgage principal and interest.

Is It a Buyers Market Texas? How to Tell Without Guessing

The phrase buyers market Texas gets used loosely. A true buyer’s market typically means buyers have meaningful power to negotiate and homes take longer to sell. But Texas today is best described as “rebalancing,” with buyer-friendly conditions showing up first in certain segments.

Signs your local market is tilting toward buyers

• More active listings than last year
• Noticeable increase in price reductions
• Longer days on market for average listings
• More seller concessions (closing costs, rate buydowns, repair credits)
• Fewer multiple-offer situations on typical homes

Signs sellers still have leverage

• Low inventory in a specific school zone or close-in neighborhood
• Homes going pending quickly when priced right
• Consistent showings and backup offers on well-presented listings

Best practice: Evaluate the specific zip code and price range you’re shopping. “Texas” is too big for one label to fit every buyer.

Forecast-Oriented Outlook: If Inventory Keeps Growing, What Could Happen by 2026–27?

Forecasting housing is always an estimate, not a guarantee. Still, we can outline realistic scenarios based on how inventory typically influences pricing, construction, and buyer behavior. If Texas home inventory continues to grow into 2026–27, here are three plausible paths—especially relevant for readers tracking Texas housing trends 2026.

Scenario 1: A sustained “balanced market” becomes the norm

If inventory gradually rises while job growth and household formation remain steady, Texas could settle into a more traditional rhythm:

• Moderate price changes rather than sharp spikes
• More consistent days on market
• Negotiations focused on concessions and repairs rather than bidding wars
• More predictable outcomes for first-time buyers

What it means for affordability: This scenario tends to support real estate affordability Texas by limiting runaway appreciation, even if mortgage rates remain higher than the ultra-low era.

Scenario 2: Inventory rises faster than demand in some submarkets

If new construction delivery remains strong and resale inventory also grows—especially in areas with many similar homes—some pockets could experience:

• More frequent price reductions
• Higher concessions, particularly from builders
• Longer marketing times for average-condition homes

What it means for buyers: More leverage, but also more need for careful selection. In softer pockets, future resale performance may vary widely based on neighborhood quality, commute patterns, and community amenities.

Scenario 3: Demand re-accelerates and inventory growth slows

If mortgage rates ease meaningfully or Texas sees another wave of in-migration and job expansion, demand could rebound. Even with higher inventory, a demand surge can tighten conditions again—particularly in high-demand neighborhoods with limited buildable land.

• Homes in prime locations could return to faster sales
• Price stability could shift toward renewed appreciation in select areas
• Concessions might shrink where competition returns

What it means for buyers: The window for negotiation may be strongest when inventory is rising but demand has not yet re-accelerated—another reason to watch local trends rather than waiting for a perfect headline.

What to watch through 2026–27

For readers following Texas housing trends 2026, these indicators can help you understand which scenario is developing:

• Months of inventory: rising suggests more buyer leverage; falling suggests tightening conditions.
• Share of listings with price reductions: a practical measure of seller competition.
• New construction starts and completions: key for future housing supply Texas.
• Mortgage rate direction: impacts buyer demand quickly through monthly payments.
• Local job growth: supports housing demand, especially in major employment corridors.

Practical Playbook: How Buyers Can Win in a Higher-Inventory Texas Market

More inventory is good news, but it doesn’t replace smart strategy. Here are practical moves that tend to work well when Texas home inventory is rising.

Focus on “total monthly cost,” not list price

In Texas, taxes and insurance can materially change your payment. Compare homes by estimated monthly cost so you don’t accidentally stretch your budget on a “cheaper” home with higher taxes or HOA fees.

Use comps and active competition to guide your offer

Closed sales show what buyers have paid; active listings show what you can buy instead. In a higher-inventory environment, active competition matters more than it did during the frenzy years.

Ask for concessions when they improve affordability

If you’re trying to improve real estate affordability Texas, concessions can be as valuable as a price reduction—sometimes more—depending on how they affect your cash-to-close and monthly payment.

Don’t overlook quality listings that are simply “not trendy”

In a market with more choice, buyers can sometimes get better value by prioritizing solid fundamentals (location, layout, school zone, resale potential) over cosmetic perfection.

Be picky about red flags

• Repeated price drops without a clear reason
• Visible signs of water intrusion or poor drainage
• Incomplete or vague seller disclosures
• Major unpermitted work (where permits would typically be expected)
• Homes that are difficult to insure due to roof age or condition

Seller Takeaways (Because Today’s Buyers Often Become Tomorrow’s Sellers)

Even if you’re buying now, it helps to think like a future seller. In a market with growing housing supply Texas, the homes that perform best tend to have three things in common: strong location fundamentals, good condition, and realistic pricing.

• Location still leads: commute convenience, school zones, and neighborhood amenities remain major value drivers.
• Condition matters more as choices increase: deferred maintenance becomes a bigger discount factor when buyers can choose another home.
• Pricing discipline protects your timeline: the first weeks on market are still critical, even in a slower environment.

Bottom Line: Growing Inventory Is Changing the Texas Housing Conversation

The 2024 jump in active listings—up more than 30%—is a meaningful development for Texas home inventory and a key signal that the market is moving toward better balance. For buyers, that often means more choices, more time to make decisions, and more negotiating power on price and concessions. For sellers, it means competition is back, and winning offers increasingly go to homes that are priced right and presented well.

Looking ahead, if inventory continues to grow, Texas housing trends 2026 may be defined less by frantic bidding wars and more by steady, neighborhood-specific performance. That’s a healthier environment for first-time buyers and move-up households alike—and it can support price stability and gradual improvements in real estate affordability Texas, especially when paired with smart financing and careful home selection.

Commercial Real Estate Under Pressure in Texas: What’s Next for Offices & Multifamily?

by Diego Bernal | Nov 14, 2025 | News Feed

Commercial Real Estate Under Pressure in Texas: What’s Next for Offices & Multifamily?

Texas has been one of the nation’s most closely watched growth stories for years—fueled by job creation, population gains, and corporate relocations. But even a fast-growing state isn’t immune to the realities of today’s higher-rate environment. In recent reporting, CRE Daily noted more than $700 million in Texas CRE foreclosures in a single month, with multifamily described as the hardest-hit property type. That’s a meaningful signal that stress is working its way through parts of the market, especially where loans are maturing and refinancing math no longer works.

This matters whether you’re a developer watching construction financing, an investor evaluating Texas real estate investment opportunities, or a local official tracking tax base and downtown momentum. Not every sector is struggling—industrial and logistics remain comparatively resilient—but the mix of remote work, shifting tenant preferences, and higher debt costs is pressuring valuations and driving more workouts, sales at discounts, and (in some cases) foreclosures.

Below is a Texas-specific look at the major CRE trends Texas participants are navigating right now, what’s driving distress, where the opportunities are emerging, and what to watch next for the Texas office market and apartment sector.

Quick Snapshot: Where Texas Commercial Real Estate Stands Today

Broadly, Texas commercial real estate is splitting into “haves” and “have-nots.” Properties with strong locations, modern features, and manageable debt are still leasing and trading. Assets with older layouts, weaker submarket positioning, or loans coming due at much higher interest rates are facing tougher outcomes.

• Multifamily: Still supported by population growth, but pressure is rising from new supply deliveries, softer rent growth, and refinancing risk. Texas multifamily foreclosures are drawing attention because distress is showing up even in a state known for strong demand.
• Office: The Texas office market is undergoing a quality reset. Many tenants are consolidating, choosing newer buildings, and leaving older Class B space with higher vacancy and bigger leasing incentives.
• Industrial: Generally the most stable major sector, though tenant decision-making is more cautious than in the peak e-commerce expansion years. Well-located logistics remains a bright spot.

Texas CRE Trends by Sub-Sector

Office: A Two-Speed Texas Office Market

Office is the most visibly “re-priced” sector in many Texas metros. The story isn’t simply “office is down.” It’s more accurate to say the market has become two-speed: top-tier buildings are competing for tenants with amenities, walkability, and efficient floor plates, while older buildings fight rising vacancy and slower leasing.

In practice, that often looks like:

• Flight to quality: Tenants renew, but they also trade up—moving from older Class B space into newer Class A buildings, sometimes for a similar net cost once landlord concessions are factored in.
• Smaller footprints: Hybrid work policies are prompting many companies to reduce square footage at renewal, even when headcount is steady.
• More landlord incentives: Larger tenant improvement (TI) allowances, more free rent, and flexible lease structures are common tools to secure creditworthy tenants.

Why Class B is feeling it most: Class B buildings often have lower ceilings, dated lobbies, limited amenities, and less efficient mechanical systems. In a market where tenants are selective, those buildings can require significant capital to compete—and that’s difficult when refinancing costs are higher and values are under pressure.

Multifamily: Demand Is Real, but the Capital Stack Is Strained

Texas remains a high-demand apartment state thanks to job growth and household formation. Yet the investment side of multifamily is under stress, and the rise in Texas multifamily foreclosures is a reminder that strong long-term demand doesn’t eliminate short-term financial risk.

What’s happening is a collision of market and finance factors:

• New supply wave: Many Texas metros saw a surge of apartment construction in recent years. As those units deliver, leasing competition increases, especially in submarkets with heavy concentrations of new Class A product.
• Rent growth normalization: After rapid rent growth earlier in the decade, many landlords are facing flatter rent trends, more concessions, and longer lease-up periods for new deliveries.
• Insurance and taxes: In Texas, property taxes are a major operating cost, and insurance has been a growing line item for many owners. Even when rents hold, expenses can erode net operating income (NOI).
• Refinance shock: Loans originated when rates were low may mature into a much higher-rate environment, and lower appraised values can reduce available proceeds.

CRE Daily’s report of more than $700 million in Texas CRE foreclosures in a single month—with multifamily the hardest hit—fits this pattern: distress often appears first where a property’s cash flow can’t support the new cost of debt, or where a loan maturity forces a decision.

Important nuance for readers: Foreclosure headlines don’t necessarily mean apartments are “failing” as a property type. They often reflect the structure of the financing, the timing of the maturity, and whether the asset needs more time or capital to stabilize.

Industrial: A Relative Bright Spot with Selective Leasing

Industrial has been the standout performer across many markets, and Texas is no exception. The state’s central geography, major ports and border trade corridors, and large metro consumer bases keep logistics demand durable.

That said, industrial isn’t immune to a slower economy or higher financing costs:

• Tenants are more measured: Some users are taking longer to commit to expansions and are negotiating harder on rates and buildout terms.
• Location still wins: Properties near highways, intermodal facilities, airports, and population centers are outperforming.
• New deliveries matter: In submarkets that overbuilt, vacancy can rise temporarily, especially for commodity warehouse space.

For many investors, industrial remains one of the clearer opportunity sets in Texas commercial real estate because the long-term demand story is tied to distribution, reshoring, and population growth—trends that tend to be stickier than office utilization patterns.

What’s Driving Stress Across Texas Commercial Real Estate?

Different sectors have different pain points, but today’s pressure on Texas commercial real estate is largely tied to a few shared drivers. Understanding them helps investors and owners identify whether a challenge is “fixable with time and leasing” or “structural and capital-related.”

1) Remote Work and Tenant Behavior Changes

Remote and hybrid work remain the headline driver for office, but the ripple effects touch other sectors too (think: downtown retail, parking revenue, and the ecosystem that supports office workers).

• Office demand is smaller: Many companies simply need less space per employee.
• Experience matters more: Tenants prioritize buildings and locations that help lure employees back—amenities, transit access, and walkable districts.
• Older buildings face repositioning pressure: If a building can’t compete, it may need renovation, a change of use, or a more creative leasing strategy.

2) Loan Maturities and Refinancing Risk

One of the biggest CRE trends Texas owners are dealing with is the “maturity wall”—a period when many loans originated in the low-rate era come due. If interest rates are higher and values are lower, refinancing can require additional equity or a deal restructure.

Common outcomes include:

• Extend-and-pretend (with conditions): Lenders may extend the loan term if the borrower contributes new capital or meets leasing milestones.
• Note sales or recapitalizations: Owners may bring in a new equity partner or sell the loan at a discount.
• Distress and foreclosure: If no workable path exists, foreclosure becomes a last-resort mechanism to transfer control.

The reported monthly foreclosure figure (over $700 million) underscores that some assets have moved beyond negotiation into formal resolution.

3) Interest Rates and Cap Rate Expansion

Higher interest rates don’t just raise mortgage payments. They also tend to push cap rates higher, which can lower property values—even if the building is operating well. In simple terms: when borrowing costs go up, buyers generally can’t pay the same price for the same income stream.

• Buyers need higher yields: Which often means lower prices, unless NOI rises enough to offset the change.
• Sellers face a new reality: Many owners anchored to 2021–2022 pricing are finding today’s market won’t support those numbers.
• Deals require creativity: Seller financing, preferred equity, and phased capital plans can help transactions pencil.

4) Texas-Specific Expense Pressures: Taxes and Insurance

Texas offers strong economic fundamentals, but property taxes are a major line item for commercial owners, and insurance costs have increased in many areas. For multifamily, these costs can materially affect NOI and valuation.

Why this matters now: When interest rates rise, the margin for error shrinks. A jump in taxes or insurance that might have been manageable during high rent growth can become a serious issue when rent growth cools and debt service increases.

Where the Opportunities Are Emerging

Periods of stress often create the best openings for disciplined buyers and developers—especially those with patient capital, strong operating teams, and realistic underwriting. The key is to focus on durable demand drivers and avoid assuming a quick bounce-back.

Opportunity 1: Industrial and Logistics in High-Utility Corridors

Industrial remains a leading candidate for Texas real estate investment allocations, particularly in corridors supported by:

• Port-related distribution (especially along the Gulf Coast)
• Border trade and nearshoring supply chains
• Major highway intersections and intermodal hubs
• Last-mile delivery near dense residential growth areas

Green flags for industrial investors: Modern clear heights, flexible loading, strong trailer parking, and locations that reduce drive times for labor and deliveries.

Red flags: Commodity buildings in over-supplied submarkets, or properties with functional obsolescence that will require major capital to remain competitive.

Opportunity 2: Office Repurposing and Repositioning (Selective, Not Easy)

“Office conversion” is one of the most talked-about themes in the Texas office market, but it’s not a one-size-fits-all solution. Some buildings will pencil for conversion to residential, hotel, education, medical, or mixed-use; many will not due to floor plate depth, window lines, mechanical systems, and code requirements.

A practical, step-by-step look at office repositioning paths:

• Step 1: Diagnose demand. Is there proven residential demand downtown? Is hospitality strong? Is there unmet need for medical office or clinic space?
• Step 2: Confirm physical feasibility. Deep floor plates and limited natural light can complicate residential conversions. Elevator cores, plumbing, and HVAC layout matter.
• Step 3: Review zoning and incentives. Many cities consider incentive packages for conversions that support downtown vitality and tax base stability.
• Step 4: Underwrite with realistic costs. Conversion budgets can be high, and timelines can stretch due to permitting and construction complexity.
• Step 5: Secure the right capital stack. Adaptive reuse often needs layered financing, including equity partners comfortable with construction and lease-up risk.

Pros: Potential to reset a struggling asset, activate downtown corridors, and diversify use.

Cons: High up-front cost, complex approvals, and the risk that the finished product competes in a saturated market segment.

Opportunity 3: Value-Add Multifamily (With a New Playbook)

Value-add multifamily has long been popular in Texas, but the strategy is evolving. In a slower rent-growth environment, “light cosmetic upgrades and big rent bumps” is harder to execute. Today’s value-add often needs a more operationally focused approach.

What a smarter value-add plan can look like:

• Operational savings: Water management, submetering where feasible, preventive maintenance, and smarter vendor contracts.
• Targeted renovations: Focus on improvements that renters will pay for—durable flooring, in-unit laundry (where possible), better security, and improved common areas.
• Amenity ROI discipline: Not every property needs expensive amenity packages; match upgrades to the renter profile.
• Debt strategy first: Underwrite refinancing risk upfront. Assume conservative exit cap rates and build in reserves.

Where deals may appear: Recapitalizations, note sales, and motivated dispositions tied to loan maturities. The uptick in Texas multifamily foreclosures suggests more “forced” situations may come to market, which can create entry points for buyers who can close and operate.

Implications for Developers, Investors, and Local Governments

For Developers: Fewer Easy Wins, More Due Diligence

Developers in Texas are adapting to tighter construction lending and more conservative underwriting.

• Office development: Generally limited to build-to-suit or best-in-class projects in proven nodes. Spec office is harder to finance.
• Multifamily development: More scrutiny on rent comps, absorption assumptions, and submarket supply pipelines. Deals need realistic lease-up timelines.
• Industrial development: Still active, but site selection and tenant targeting matter more than ever.

Common developer mistake right now: Underestimating time-to-stabilization. Carry costs add up quickly when leasing takes longer and debt is expensive.

Green flag: Projects with flexible exit options (sell, refinance, or hold) and conservative assumptions for cap rates, rents, and expenses.

For Investors: Underwrite the Debt and the Downside

In today’s Texas commercial real estate environment, many “bad” deals aren’t bad properties—they’re bad capital stacks. Investors should treat interest rate and refinance sensitivity as core underwriting, not an afterthought.

A step-by-step investment checklist:

• Step 1: Stress-test NOI. Model higher vacancy, slower rent growth, and higher operating expenses (taxes and insurance included).
• Step 2: Run multiple exit scenarios. Assume cap rates stay higher for longer, and test what happens if exit pricing is softer.
• Step 3: Evaluate lease rollover risk. For office and industrial, understand how much income depends on a handful of tenants.
• Step 4: Prioritize liquidity. Reserves matter. So does the ability to fund TI, leasing commissions, and capital improvements.
• Step 5: Choose strategy intentionally. Core, value-add, and opportunistic can all work—but the risk profile must match the team and the capital.

One of the defining CRE trends Texas investors are watching is the increase in distress-driven opportunities—note sales, recapitalizations, and foreclosure-related transfers. These can be attractive, but they require speed, legal sophistication, and a clear business plan.

For Local Governments: Tax Base Stability and Downtown Vitality

Commercial property values and occupancy affect city budgets through property tax revenue, and they influence the health of business districts. A weaker office market can create ripple effects: fewer commuters, less foot traffic for small businesses, and pressure on public services funded by tax receipts.

Local governments are increasingly focused on:

• Adaptive reuse policies: Streamlined permitting and thoughtful zoning changes to make conversions more feasible where appropriate.
• Infrastructure and placemaking: Improving walkability, transit connections, and public spaces to support mixed-use districts.
• Balanced incentives: Targeted incentives that encourage redevelopment without overcommitting public resources.

Practical caution: Incentives work best when paired with a realistic market study. Conversions only succeed if end-user demand is there—whether that’s residential renters, hotel guests, students, or medical tenants.

What’s Next: Scenarios to Watch in Texas CRE

No single forecast fits every Texas metro or submarket. Still, a few scenarios are worth watching as the market digests higher rates and loan maturities.

Scenario A: A Longer Workout Cycle (More Extensions, More Recaps)

If rates remain relatively elevated and lenders prefer negotiated solutions, expect more loan extensions, fresh equity infusions, and recapitalizations—especially in multifamily and Class B office. Foreclosures can still occur, but many stakeholders try to avoid them when a viable path exists.

Scenario B: Distress Becomes More Visible (More Foreclosures and Note Sales)

If properties can’t meet debt service or refinancing gaps are too large, the market may see more forced transactions. The monthly figure highlighted by CRE Daily (over $700 million in Texas CRE foreclosures, with multifamily hardest hit) could be an early indicator of that path, particularly where maturities cluster.

Scenario C: Selective Recovery Led by Quality Assets

Even in a challenging cycle, high-quality assets can rebound sooner—industrial near key corridors, best-in-class office in top nodes, and well-located multifamily with manageable supply pressure. In this scenario, the market remains uneven, with “top of the stack” assets stabilizing while others continue to reprice.

Practical Takeaways for Texas CRE Decision-Makers

If You Own Office (Especially Class B)

• Audit competitiveness: Compare your building to what tenants are choosing today—amenities, parking, common areas, HVAC, and access to food/retail.
• Budget for leasing: TI and concessions are often the cost of staying occupied in the current Texas office market.
• Consider alternative uses early: Even if conversion isn’t the plan, understanding feasibility strengthens your negotiating position with lenders and investors.

If You Own Multifamily

• Get ahead of loan maturities: Start refinance conversations early and prepare for equity requirements or recap options.
• Manage expenses aggressively: Taxes and insurance can move quickly; challenge assessments when appropriate and shop coverage strategically.
• Compete smartly on leasing: Concessions aren’t automatically bad if they protect occupancy and reduce turnover costs.

If You’re Buying (Investors)

• Prioritize basis and balance sheet: Great operators can still lose money with the wrong entry price and debt terms.
• Look for motivated-but-solvable situations: Maturity-driven sellers and recap opportunities can offer better pricing than fully marketed “trophy” deals.
• Don’t ignore submarket supply: Especially in multifamily—map deliveries and absorption, not just citywide headlines.

Bottom Line: Pressure Creates Change—and Openings

Texas commercial real estate is under real pressure, and the current wave of distress—highlighted by CRE Daily’s note that Texas CRE foreclosures topped $700 million in a month, with multifamily hardest hit—signals a market recalibrating to higher interest rates and stricter capital markets. At the same time, Texas remains a magnet for people and companies, which continues to support long-term demand for well-located, well-designed real estate.

The near-term outlook is best described as uneven: the strongest industrial assets and top-tier office buildings can hold up, while older offices and over-leveraged multifamily face tougher workouts. For buyers and builders who underwrite conservatively and focus on durable demand drivers, today’s CRE trends Texas market participants are navigating may also create some of the most compelling entry points in years.

Why One Border City in Texas Is Losing Its Appeal to Homebuyers

by Diego Bernal | Nov 13, 2025 | News Feed

Why One Border City in Texas Is Losing Its Appeal to Homebuyers

McAllen’s shift matters because it challenges the “Texas boom” narrative

Texas has spent the last several years in the spotlight for strong population growth, job creation, and a housing market that (even when it cools) often looks healthier than many parts of the country. But the story isn’t uniform across the state. In the Rio Grande Valley, the McAllen Texas housing market has started to feel noticeably different from the high-demand years that made it a favorite among budget-conscious buyers and investors.

McAllen is still a vibrant city with real strengths—warm climate, proximity to the border economy, and a cost structure that has historically been easier on the wallet than most big Texas metros. Yet recent conditions point to cooling demand—a slower pace of sales, more cautious buyers, and a market that’s having to “reprice” expectations after the rapid run-up of the early 2020s.

This article breaks down what made McAllen hot in the first place, what’s changed, and why this shift is a useful case study for anyone shopping in secondary real estate markets Texas. If you’re considering a purchase—whether a first home, a rental, or a long-term investment—McAllen offers a clear lesson: affordability alone doesn’t guarantee ongoing demand, and every market has its own tipping points.

McAllen’s earlier surge: what made the city so attractive

1) Relative affordability (especially compared to major Texas metros)

For years, McAllen stood out for one big reason: buyers could get more home for the money. While prices in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and parts of Houston surged, McAllen remained one of the more approachable places to buy a single-family home in Texas. That value proposition fueled both primary-residence demand and investor interest.

In conversations about affordability Texas housing, McAllen was often used as a counterpoint to the bigger-city sticker shock. Lower price points don’t just help first-time buyers—they also make down payments more manageable and can improve the math for investors trying to keep rents competitive.

2) Pandemic-era migration patterns and remote-work flexibility

During the peak relocation years, Texas benefited from inbound migration, and smaller markets got a share of that attention. McAllen attracted buyers who were willing to prioritize space, cost, and lifestyle over being near a major downtown job center. Remote and hybrid work expanded the list of “possible” places to live, and some households looked south for warmth and savings.

Even if McAllen didn’t see the same national spotlight as Austin or San Antonio, it benefited from the broader mindset shift: “If I can work from anywhere, why not buy where my budget stretches farther?”

3) A cross-border economy and regional hub status

McAllen has long served as a commercial and healthcare hub for the Rio Grande Valley. Retail, logistics, medical services, education, and cross-border trade support a wide range of jobs and business activity. That economic base helped underpin housing demand, particularly for entry-level and move-up homes.

For many buyers, McAllen offered a practical blend: city amenities without big-city prices, plus access to the broader region’s shopping, services, and cultural ties.

4) Investor interest in smaller Texas markets

As competition intensified in major metros, investors broadened their search. The goal was familiar: find a market with a lower acquisition price, reasonable rental demand, and the potential for appreciation. McAllen and nearby Valley communities started appearing more frequently in investor conversations about secondary real estate markets Texas.

In the best-case scenario, investors hoped to capture both cash flow and price growth. But as conditions change, those assumptions deserve a closer look—especially when expenses (insurance, taxes, maintenance) are rising statewide.

What’s changed: why homebuyer demand is cooling in McAllen

McAllen hasn’t “collapsed,” and it’s not a ghost town. The more accurate description is a market moving from hot to balanced—or, in some segments, from balanced to soft. The reasons are layered, and they combine into a noticeable shift in homebuyer demand Texas border city areas like McAllen.

1) Higher mortgage rates changed the payment, not just the price

One of the biggest demand coolers across Texas has been the jump in mortgage rates compared to the ultra-low levels seen earlier in the decade. Even if a market remains relatively affordable on paper, monthly payments can rise sharply when rates move up.

In practical terms, buyers who could comfortably afford a certain home price in 2021 or 2022 may now need to shop lower, bring more cash, or delay buying altogether. This is especially important in markets where household incomes may not rise as quickly as housing costs.

McAllen’s affordability advantage can narrow when the “payment shock” grows—because buyers tend to shop by monthly payment, not list price.

2) Affordability pressures aren’t just about home prices

When people talk about affordability Texas housing, the focus often lands on the home price alone. But total ownership cost matters just as much:

• Property taxes: Texas has no state income tax, but property taxes can be significant depending on the local rate and assessed value.
• Homeowners insurance: Premiums have risen in many parts of Texas. Even when rates vary by location and risk factors, higher premiums can change the affordability equation quickly.
• Maintenance and repairs: Older housing stock, deferred maintenance, or climate-related wear can raise ongoing costs.
• Utilities and upgrades: Energy efficiency and HVAC condition can materially affect monthly expenses in hot climates.

When these expenses rise alongside mortgage payments, some buyers step back, and demand cools.

3) Inventory has improved, reducing urgency

In many Texas markets, the red-hot years were defined by scarcity: too few homes for too many buyers. When inventory expands—whether through more listings, new construction completions, or slower buyer activity—the power dynamic changes.

Buyers in McAllen are increasingly able to compare options, negotiate more firmly, and walk away if the inspection reveals issues. Even a modest increase in available homes can reduce the “fear of missing out” that drives bidding wars.

That shift can feel like lost momentum, but it’s also a sign of a healthier market structure—just not as favorable for sellers who priced homes based on peak demand conditions.

4) New construction and resale competition can create pockets of oversupply

Oversupply doesn’t always show up as a citywide glut. More often, it appears in certain price bands, neighborhoods, or product types. If builders deliver a wave of similar homes—and resale sellers try to capture peak pricing at the same time—buyers gain leverage.

In a cooling market, buyers tend to favor:

• Move-in-ready homes
• Homes with recent roof/HVAC updates
• Properties with strong curb appeal and modern layouts
• Homes priced in line with recent comparable sales (not last year’s highs)

That can leave dated or over-improved listings sitting longer, which reinforces the perception that demand is weakening.

5) Shifting buyer preferences: “value” now includes lifestyle and amenities

McAllen has real amenities, but buyer expectations have also evolved. Many households are weighing factors like airport connectivity, major employer hubs, higher education proximity, flood risk perception, and entertainment options with more intensity than before.

In other words, “affordable” is no longer enough on its own—buyers often want an affordability-and-amenities package. Markets that don’t match the lifestyle checklist as closely can see demand cool sooner when budgets tighten.

6) Investors have become more selective, and some are stepping back

Investor demand can amplify price gains on the way up—and it can fade quickly when financing costs rise or rent growth slows. If rents don’t rise fast enough to offset higher rates, insurance, and taxes, returns compress.

That’s where Texas home investment risk becomes very real in smaller markets: the margin for error is often thinner, and exit liquidity can be lower than in a major metro. When investors pull back, it removes a layer of demand that helped absorb inventory during the hot years.

7) Pricing expectations are adjusting, and that adjustment takes time

Many sellers remember what their neighbor got during the peak. But today’s buyers are more payment-sensitive and more comparison-driven. When list prices don’t reflect current conditions, homes sit longer, price reductions become more common, and the market message shifts from “act fast” to “negotiate.”

This is one of the clearest signs of cooling: not necessarily falling prices across the board, but a slower pace and more frequent repricing.

What “cooling demand” looks like on the ground

Readers often ask what to watch for beyond headlines. In a cooling phase, the McAllen Texas housing market may show several practical changes that buyers and sellers can feel week to week:

• Longer days on market: Homes take longer to go under contract, especially if they’re overpriced or need work.
• More price reductions: Sellers “test” a higher number, then adjust as showings and offers come in.
• Fewer bidding wars: Multiple offers become less common outside the most desirable, move-in-ready homes.
• More buyer-friendly terms: Repair credits, closing cost assistance, and rate buydowns become more negotiable.
• Greater sensitivity to condition: Buyers are less willing to accept deferred maintenance.

None of these signals mean a market is unhealthy. But they do mean the strategy that worked during peak demand needs updating.

Seasonality in South Texas: why timing can feel different in McAllen

Texas housing is seasonal, and McAllen is no exception. Spring and early summer often bring more listings and more buyer activity, while late summer and the holidays can slow things down. In South Texas, extreme heat can also influence showing traffic and buyer urgency during mid-summer.

When demand is already cooling, seasonality becomes more noticeable. A listing that might have sold quickly in March could sit longer in late summer, even if it’s priced reasonably. Buyers may interpret that as a bigger shift than it is, while sellers may feel the market “turned” overnight.

The takeaway: local timing matters, and a cooling market can exaggerate normal seasonal patterns.

Why McAllen is a cautionary tale for other secondary Texas markets

McAllen’s changing trajectory doesn’t mean border cities can’t be great places to buy. It does, however, highlight how quickly the math can change in secondary real estate markets Texas when a few key variables shift at the same time.

Lesson 1: “Affordable” can become “payment-stressed” quickly

A market can be affordable relative to Austin or Dallas and still become difficult for local buyers if mortgage rates rise, insurance increases, or wages don’t keep pace. If demand depends heavily on first-time buyers, payment sensitivity tends to be higher.

Lesson 2: Investor demand isn’t permanent demand

Investor activity can boost absorption, but it can also be more reactive than owner-occupied demand. When costs rise and cap rates compress, investors often pause or pivot to different cities. Markets that leaned heavily on investor demand may feel the cool-down more quickly.

Lesson 3: Liquidity risk is real outside major metros

In a big metro, there’s typically a deeper buyer pool at most price points. In smaller markets, demand can be more segmented. That means if you buy a property that only appeals to a narrow set of buyers, it may take longer to sell when conditions soften.

Lesson 4: Local economic signals matter more than statewide headlines

Texas can be “booming” in aggregate while a specific city cools due to local dynamics—employer changes, construction delivery, affordability pressure, or shifts in migration. Buyers and investors should treat each market like its own ecosystem.

Lesson 5: Oversupply can be neighborhood-specific

One side of town can be tight while another feels saturated with similar homes. This is especially common when new construction clusters in certain corridors and competes directly with resales.

Practical advice for homebuyers in McAllen right now

If you’re considering buying in the McAllen Texas housing market, a cooling phase can be an advantage—if you approach it strategically.

Step-by-step: how to buy smart in a cooler market

Step 1: Get a real pre-approval, not just a quick pre-qualification.

• A pre-approval typically involves verifying income, assets, and credit more thoroughly.
• Ask your lender to walk you through rate-lock options and estimated monthly payment scenarios.
• In a shifting market, clarity on payment helps you negotiate confidently.

Step 2: Focus on total monthly cost, not just list price.

• Ask for a property tax estimate (including whether exemptions may apply).
• Get an insurance quote early—don’t wait until you’re days from closing.
• Factor in HOA dues if relevant.

Step 3: Use comparables from the last 60–120 days, not peak-era comps.

• In a cooling market, older sales may reflect different rate conditions.
• Look closely at price reductions and concessions on recent deals.

Step 4: Make inspection diligence a priority.

• Pay attention to roof age, HVAC condition, foundation indicators, drainage, and any signs of moisture issues.
• Ask about past repairs and warranties.
• A cooler market is one where you can negotiate repairs or credits more often than during peak demand.

Step 5: Negotiate based on facts, not feelings.

• If the home has been sitting, ask for seller concessions (closing costs, rate buydown, or repairs).
• Use inspection results and market data to support your request.

Common buyer mistakes (and how to avoid them)

• Overpaying to “win” when the market no longer requires it: In a cooler environment, patience is a negotiating tool.
• Skipping insurance quotes until late: Premium surprises can blow up affordability at the finish line.
• Ignoring resale factors: Even if you plan to stay, buy a home that will appeal to future buyers (layout, location, condition).

Buyer green flags

• Homes priced close to recent comps with minimal days on market
• Sellers willing to provide disclosures, receipts, and repair history
• Properties with updated major systems (roof/HVAC) and strong curb appeal
• Neighborhoods with consistent demand, not just recent speculative activity

Practical advice for sellers in McAllen who still want top dollar

Even with cooling demand, well-prepared listings can sell quickly and at strong prices. The strategy is less about “shooting for the moon” and more about positioning your home as the best value among current options.

Step-by-step: how to sell effectively in a cooler market

Step 1: Price to today’s market, not last year’s market.

• Review recent sales, but also active competition and pending listings.
• If similar homes are offering concessions, you may need to compete on net value.

Step 2: Fix the obvious issues before listing.

• Small defects that buyers ignored in 2021 can become deal-killers now.
• Address leaks, HVAC servicing, peeling paint, and visible wear.

Step 3: Offer a clean, confident inspection posture.

• Consider a pre-listing inspection if your home is older or has a complicated repair history.
• Transparency reduces renegotiation risk later.

Step 4: Be ready to negotiate concessions strategically.

• Instead of a big price cut, consider targeted concessions that help buyers qualify, such as closing costs or a rate buydown.
• These can improve affordability without changing the headline price as much.

Step 5: Market the lifestyle, not just the square footage.

• Highlight proximity to schools, medical services, shopping corridors, and commuting routes.
• In a market where buyers are more selective, context matters.

Seller red flags

• Chasing the market downward with multiple small price cuts after starting too high
• Refusing to address clear condition issues that show up in every showing
• Assuming “someone will pay it” without supporting data

Investor outlook: what to consider before buying in secondary Texas markets

McAllen’s shift is especially relevant for investors exploring secondary real estate markets Texas. The biggest mistake investors make in smaller markets is assuming the same playbook that worked in a fast-rising metro will work everywhere.

Start with this question: are you investing for cash flow, appreciation, or both?

In the peak years, many investors underwrote deals assuming appreciation would help cover thin cash flow. In a cooler market, that’s where Texas home investment risk becomes more visible. Appreciation may slow, stall, or vary dramatically by neighborhood and property type.

Key risk areas investors should underwrite more carefully

• Rent-to-price relationship: If purchase prices rose faster than rents, returns compress.
• Insurance and taxes: Rising operating expenses can turn a “good deal” into a break-even property.
• Vacancy sensitivity: A few months of vacancy can erase a year of profit in a thin-margin deal.
• Exit liquidity: How quickly can you sell if the market softens further?
• Property condition and capital expenses: Roof, HVAC, foundation, and plumbing timelines should be budgeted realistically.

Pros and cons: investing in border-region secondary markets

• Pros: Lower entry prices than major metros; potential demand from local workforce and regional hub activity; opportunities to add value through renovations and management.
• Cons: Higher sensitivity to interest rates and payment shock; potentially slower resale liquidity; operating cost surprises; rent growth may not keep pace with ownership costs.

Investor best practices (simple, repeatable, and protective)

1) Stress-test your numbers.

• Model higher insurance and taxes than your initial estimate.
• Assume conservative rent growth.
• Include a realistic maintenance reserve.

2) Favor “boring” properties in proven rental corridors.

• The best investment is often the most rentable, not the most unique.
• Avoid niche floor plans or locations that limit your tenant pool.

3) Watch supply pipelines.

• Track new construction and large rehab flips in your target area.
• If many similar homes are coming online, rents and resale prices can face pressure.

4) Have a clear hold period and exit plan.

• In a cooling market, short-term flips carry more risk.
• Longer holds can work, but only if cash flow is resilient.

5) Don’t confuse “cheap” with “undervalued.”

• Undervalued means the price is low relative to fundamentals and demand stability.
• Cheap may simply reflect slower growth, higher risk, or limited buyer depth.

How to spot early warning signs in any secondary Texas market

If you’re exploring smaller cities beyond the big metros, McAllen offers a helpful checklist. Here are signals that a market may be transitioning from hot to cool—especially relevant to homebuyer demand Texas border city areas and other mid-sized communities:

• Rising days on market for average homes, not just the problem listings
• More new listings than closed sales month after month, building inventory
• Frequent concessions becoming the norm (closing costs, rate buydowns, repair credits)
• New construction incentives competing directly with resales (which can cap resale pricing)
• Rent growth slowing while taxes and insurance rise
• Investor pullback as financing costs reduce returns

These indicators don’t automatically mean prices will drop. They do suggest the market is becoming more negotiation-friendly and less forgiving of pricing mistakes.

Is McAllen “losing appeal” permanently? A realistic outlook

McAllen’s cooling demand should be viewed as a market rebalancing rather than a permanent decline. The city still has important strengths: regional hub status, cross-border economic ties, and a cost structure that can remain compelling compared to many Texas metros.

But the next phase likely rewards realism over hype. If mortgage rates stay elevated, buyers will remain payment-focused. If inventory stays healthier, sellers may need to compete more on condition and concessions. And if operating costs keep rising, investors will need more disciplined underwriting.

In other words, McAllen may not be the “fast-growing bargain” story it once was, but it can still be a smart place to buy—especially for households prioritizing long-term value and stability over short-term appreciation.

The bottom line: McAllen’s lesson for Texas buyers and investors

McAllen’s recent shift is a timely reminder that Texas isn’t one single housing market. Even during a broader statewide boom, local factors can cool demand—especially in smaller and mid-sized cities where affordability, investor activity, and inventory changes have an outsized impact.

For homebuyers, this can be good news: more choices, more time, and more negotiating power. For sellers and investors, it’s a call to adjust expectations, sharpen pricing strategy, and take Texas home investment risk seriously—particularly in secondary real estate markets Texas where liquidity and demand can change faster than headlines suggest.

If you’re shopping in McAllen or any similar Texas city, focus on the fundamentals: monthly payment, total ownership cost, neighborhood-level supply, property condition, and a realistic plan for resale or rental performance. That’s how you turn a cooling market into a confident decision.