Commercial market bottom nears as foreclosures surge

Portfolios of foreclosed and seized office buildings, apartments and other commercial buildings hit $20.5 billion during the second quarter of 2024, the highest quarterly figure posted since 2015, according to MSCI.

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After years of post-pandemic struggles, the commercial property market may at last be near-bottom after a quarter in which foreclosures hit their highest rate in nearly a decade.

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Portfolios of foreclosed and seized office buildings, apartments and other commercial buildings hit $20.5 billion during the second quarter of 2024, according to data provider MSCI’s Capital Trends most recent report. That figure is 13 percent higher than Q1 2024 and the highest quarterly figure posted since 2015.

The commercial market has seen a rise in defaults and other distress in recent years as a result of the slow return of office workers and rising interest rates. Despite those rising numbers of defaults, lenders have held off on taking over properties, hoping that a recovery was in sight — and that they could avoid expensive foreclosure actions.

“Lenders will do everything in their power to avoid that,” Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Jade Rahmani told The Wall Street Journal.

An increasing number of lenders have determined that office buildings may never recover their previous values, even after rates decline, which is leading to more foreclosures and short sales.

Commercial property values could continue to decline if the U.S. goes into a recession, causing companies to start laying off workers and, therefore, require less office space.

Based on similar spikes in foreclosures during previous downturns, market bottom may be close at hand. Lenders typically sell properties shortly after seizing them, which helps determine market value after extended periods of inactivity.

Offices have been hit the hardest, with the volume of office property seized through foreclosures and other actions up by $5 billion year over year, according to MSCI. Meanwhile, apartment buildings, which have also suffered amid high interest rates and growing supply, saw an increase of $975 million in portfolio volume seized since the second quarter of 2023.

A number of high-profile commercial properties have been seized as of late, including a five-building Silicon Valley complex owned by a venture of Goldman Sachs and TMG Partners, which was taken over by KKR Real Estate Finance Trust. KKR held a $200 million mortgage on the property and took title at the end of June in a deed in lieu of foreclosure transaction. The trust is expected to start marketing the complex shortly after making upgrades.

In Washington, D.C., where the office market has struggled, several buildings have sold at steep discounts. State Farm Life Insurance recently made a foreclosure sale of an office building just blocks from the White House. The property sold for $17.6 million, which was a roughly 70 percent discount from the owner’s original purchase price in 2010.

According to developer Matt Pestronk, who has purchased two discounted office buildings in D.C., “Lenders are more dispassionate about values, and that’s a sign of a cycle moving” toward bottom.

Small banks with fewer assets (especially under $10 billion) have adopted foreclosures at a quicker clip. The total value of seized commercial properties these banks owned during Q1 rose by roughly $125 million from the previous quarter to $943 million, the largest quarterly spike since 2000, bank data consultant Matthew Anderson told The WSJ.

Even if the Fed begins to cut interest rates in the fall as analysts anticipate, the commercial market is expected to take a long time to recover — and some office buildings may never recover their lost value. The sector’s risk will extend “probably for years,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a Senate testimony earlier in July.

Regulators are concerned about that prognosis for the industry because of the implications it could have on the financial system at large. More than $2.2 trillion in debt maturities are expected to come due between now and 2027, according to data firm Trepp.

Signature Bank’s failure last year serves as an early sign of what may come for other banks that have a high exposure to commercial property.

Investors have pumped cash into other banks holding vast quantities of commercial loans in order to stave off such failures, including First Foundation and New York Community Bancorp. On Thursday, the latter’s shares dropped more than 3 percent after disclosing another quarterly net loss.

Another foreboding sign is the increase in problem loans that many creditors are facing, including Blackstone Mortgage Trust (which has a large exposure to office loans). Last week, the company cut its dividend and increased loss reserves by 19 percent to over $900 million.

The delinquency rate of office loans converted into securities also jumped by 8 percent this month for the first time since November 2013, according to Trepp.

Despite growing concerns in the market, the number of foreclosures and other property seizures are still well below those seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis. In 2013, the number of foreclosed and seized properties held by lenders surged to more than $45 billion, more than twice the current rate, according to MSCI.

Since building owners have been more willing during this downturn to walk away from properties than in the last financial crisis, foreclosure figures may not ever reach the level seen during that time. At that time, owners wanted to hold onto low interest rates and hoped for a recovery.

“This cycle, a lot of investors believe office values are challenged,” Nicholas Seidenberg of real estate investment banking firm Eastdil Secured told The WSJ. “They’re saying: ‘Hey, I’m going to just walk away and not fight.’”

Email Lillian Dickerson

Bulletproof Ohio home goes under contract after multiple offers

The home was first listed for $399,900 over two weeks ago. Listing agent Jon Modene refers to it as having “the strangest and greatest potential I have ever seen.”

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An unusual, bulletproof Ohio home, left as part of the $54 million estate of the late Trudy Stranahan, is now under contract after multiple offers, the New York Post has reported.

Jon Modene of RE/MAX Masters has the listing.

The home was first listed for $399,900 over two weeks ago. Modene refers to the home as having “the strangest and greatest potential I have ever seen” — not surprising given the property’s features or lack thereof.

The single-family home sits on a 5.08-acre lot with $100,000 worth of fencing and over $300,000 worth of concrete. The property is windowless, and although there is no security system, every surface of the home is covered in Lexan, a material said to be both bulletproof and fireproof.

Modene told Realtor.com that the home is located in a low-crime neighborhood.

According to the New York Post, Stranahan belonged to the prominent family who founded the Champion Spark Plug Company in Toledo, Ohio. Stranahan spent much of her time alone at the compound, as she was said to have had no children, friends or pets.

The compound, located at 1360 Old Trail Road in Maumee, Ohio, was built by architect Ralph J. Copper in 1953. Prior to her death from cancer in 2023, Stranahan poured thousands of dollars into the compound. She left behind a $54 million estate.

In a statement to the New York Post, Modene stated that the home stands on an “amazing lot,” with perks including a “private shared lake.”

The compound stands right outside of Toledo, Ohio, on Silver Lake, bordering Metropark. The home itself stretches 3,355 square feet with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, one of which is mirrorless. Other features include two outbuildings, one of which is a spacious home gym where Stranahan spent most of her time.

There was also an Olympic-sized backyard swimming pool that Stranahan had filled in.

Modene told Realtor.com that many of the people who expressed interest in the house said they would likely tear it down or remodel it upon purchase.

Email Richelle Hammiel

Lights! Camera! Action! Egypt Sherrod touches down in Las Vegas

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Egypt Sherrod is on a tear.

Indeed, the 2023 Inman Influencer regularly juggles episodes of her “Marriage and Money Podcast with Egypt and Mike” alongside husband Mike Jackson and her popular HGTV reality series Married to Real Estate.

She also leads a home furnishing line, Indigo Road, which she’s expanding with the recently announced Indigo Road Training Center, a state-of-the-art center for real estate agents, and, of course, her brokerage firm, Indigo Road Realty.

And today she’ll appear on live on stage in Las Vegas for Luxury Connect.

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In advance of her appearance at Connect, Inman chatted with Sherrod via email (she was on a well-earned vacation) to hear more about her plans in Las Vegas and a recently announced season four of Married to Real Estate.

Inman: What are you looking forward to most at your first-ever Inman Connect Las Vegas appearance?

Egypt Sherrod: I am looking forward to connecting with some of my amazing fellow broker friends who are traveling from far and wide to attend. Also, relationship building and networking of course, and tapping into the pulse of the next hottest technology for our industry.

What do you like most about Las Vegas?

It’s the lights and action of the strip for me! I always try to catch a good show whenever I’m in town.

What can you tell us about the recently announced season four of Married to Real Estate?

It was just announced that our show spans 19 countries now. It’s still beyond belief! The fact that we come from such humble beginnings and this show has grown to be an international hit is mind boggling. Mike and I are so very grateful for the deep love and loyal viewership.

In season three, fans watched us launch Indigo Road. Now in season four, they get to see that the company has grown into not only a robust real estate brokerage, but a legacy brand with a family of companies under the Indigo Road umbrella including a full scale design house and a home furnishing division.

We also have some amazing clients who fans may recognize (wink), and both the projects and the family grow! That’s all I can share for now.

Do you have any fun plans while in Vegas for Inman Connect? What will you do, or where will you eat?

I am literally there for 20 hours before I head to speak in Cincinnati. Can you believe it?

But in that time I plan to have a few great business meetings, hold a fireside chat on Inman’s main stage about brand building, catch a delicious dinner at Giada’s, and speed shop!

Email Lillian Dickerson

Lesson Learned: Realtors are keepers of the American dream

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With a specialty in farm and land sales, Hunter Hindman, one of the National Association of Realtors’ 30 under 30 recipients for 2024, requires a unique kit when he goes out on a showing or listing appointment. His supply list often includes a utility vehicle, trailers, boots, mapping programs, chainsaws and, in his words, “anything else it takes to get the job done.”

Find out how this third-generation Realtor puts his background and love of the land to work for clients ranging from farmers to hunters to developers of therapy and religious retreats — and why he’s such a believer in the American dream of land ownership.


Name: Hunter Hindman

Title: Land specialist

Experience: 7 years in the business with a degree in agricultural business sales and marketing and a minor in real estate

Location: Leasburg, Missouri

Brokerage name: Living The Dream Outdoor Properties

Team size: Me and two buyer’s agents, Lucas McElhannon and Donna Housewright; transaction coordinator, my stepmom Tammy; listing inputs coordinator and marketing manager, my sister Paige Hindman; and, of course, my broker and father, Darrell Hindman, from whom I seek advice almost every day.

Transaction sides: 49

Sales volume: $15 million-plus

Awards:

  • National Association of Realtors 30 under 30
  • No. 1 agent in company out of 50 agents for the number of transactions sold (2021)

As a child, what did you want to be when you grew up? 

I am very proud to be a third-generation Realtor, following in the footsteps of my grandfather, Clifford Hindman, and my dad, Darrell Hindman.  I attended my first Realtor event at the age of 2 when I watched my dad be installed as president of the St. Louis Realtors.

While I didn’t grow up playing with lockboxes, I grew up appreciating our family tradition of outstanding service to clients and customers.  From an early age, I knew that I wanted to continue in that tradition as a keeper of the American dream.

What’s the best advice you ever got from a mentor?

My mentor, my father Darrell Hindman, taught me to always go the extra mile for our clients.  He showed me from my first day in this business that my success was tied to the success and satisfaction of the buyers and sellers I served. 

As a land specialist, he showed me the importance of not just selling the property but selling the outdoor lifestyle that he and I both love. He taught me that looking out for our clients and doing everything possible to help them succeed in their real estate journey would help me grow in life and my profession. 

I will always remember the words that he taught me to live by in our profession: “No commission is worth your reputation.”

What do clients need to know before they begin a real estate transaction?

Clients need to think about and know what they are hiring their Realtor for before they begin their buying or selling journey.

Clients need to ask questions of the Realtor they are interviewing:

  • Do they have the right tools?  In my business, that probably includes an off-road vehicle, maybe a chainsaw, and boots that make walking acreage workable. 
  • Do they have the right knowledge and experience?
  • Have they sold the type of property you are selling? 
  • Are they knowledgeable about real estate values in your community or county? 

While countless surveys show that clients are generally happy with their Realtor after the transaction, so many clients don’t listen to their agent’s advice. They sometimes forget that it is just as crazy to hire a Realtor and ignore their advice as it is to ignore their doctor’s or lawyer’s advice.  

What do too few agents know that would make their lives easier?

Few agents know how to compartmentalize and allocate their time. This can be a hard business that can take a lot of time, but a successful agent must know how to manage their time.

Allocate time for clients. Never quit prospecting for new clients and new listings. Allocate time for marketing and promotion to keep business coming. Our business is constantly changing, so our lives will be. Most importantly, allocate time for family and friends. A well-rounded life will bring you success in your career and business.

Tell us a story about your most memorable transaction

Helping clients through what is usually the biggest financial transactions of their lives is always a reminder of the vital role we play in the lives of our buyers and sellers. My most memorable transaction has always been an illustration for me about serving our clients and “doing right” by them can impact their lives as well as ours.

My memorable transaction began one morning when Mick walked into my office. He was looking for help selling his 160-acre farm in Osage County, Missouri.

We chatted for over an hour about the farm and, while he didn’t have to sell, he wanted to move to Florida. He shared with me the good, the bad and the ugly of the property. We quickly hit it off as agent and client and soon became friends. 

In life and business, I have always strived to be bound by my word and doing right by clients, friends and families. To me, in business, I have always worked to go beyond my legal responsibilities and to treat clients like I would want to be treated. When we got an offer on his property that was somewhat lower than he had hoped for, I feel I did the right thing and adjusted my commission so he could receive close to the net proceeds he needed. He promised that he would not forget my kindness and hard work.

A few months later, Mick called me to list his home in Sullivan, Missouri. The beautiful home on 25 acres sold quickly and without issues. Due to the hard work and dedication, Mick had no concerns or issues with listing his home at the full commission normally charged by my company.  

Mick tells me that the closing gifts I gave him at each closing — Orca coolers with our Living the Dream logo on it — sit beside his pool at his Florida home as a reminder of our working together. Working with Mick showed me once again the importance of “doing right” by people in business and all aspects of life. Having a client call you his friend is the greatest reward you can receive in our business.

Email Christy Murdock

13 more questions agents should ask about commission settlements

At Inman Connect Las Vegas, July 30-Aug. 1, 2024, the noise and misinformation will be banished, all your big questions will be answered, and new business opportunities will be revealed. Join us.

An industry shift is upon us. The long-awaited change is coming and coming fast. Post Sitzer | Burnett, the ramp-up to Aug. 17, 2024, has been taking place at a furious pace. It has been a never-ending sea of trainings, webinars, coaching, scripts, dialogues, videos, meetings, rollouts of new forms, revisions and “expert predictions” of what may happen with a plethora of videos on social media and on we go. 

While we got the basics down, so much uncertainty remains. We knew this industry was complicated, but I don’t think anyone was prepared for how complicated it is between umpteen nuances and particulars involved in working through this massive industry disruption. 

There remains a plethora of issues to be sorted out, and some of these may not ever get resolved, at least in the near future. Here are thirteen questions agents should be asking right now:

1.How exactly will buyer agency 2.0 be monitored and enforced, if there will be such a thing? 

Beyond the requirement of turning in a buyer’s agreement with offer and/or documentation into a brokerage’s transaction management platform, how will consistency of protocols and procedures be ensured across local marketplaces? 

2. What will the protocol be for buyers who refuse to sign any kind of buyer agency agreement whether it is exclusive or non-exclusive, even limited to one property or one day? 

Will they really be denied the ability to tour a home?

When a buyer who likes to dodge the “system” (and there is always a handful) signs multiple one-day and/or one-property buyer representation agreements and goes from house to house refusing to commit to any agent and has multiple agreements signed that they don’t know one from the other, can’t keep track of them, can’t conveniently “find” them, etc. — then what?

What if this buyer puts an offer on a home that they have signed more than one buyer agency agreement with? They can’t remember what they had signed or chose not to relay that and so they are on the hook for paying one or more buyer’s agents. Now what happens?

3. How will open houses be handled so that buyers won’t feel like they must put their hands up and walk slowly backwards towards the front door due to explanations and potential disclosures that must be provided? 

Yes, there are all sorts of ways to explain what must be disclosed to potential buyers before they can tour the home as far as representation, but we really have no idea how this is going to go. Will “by appointment” open houses (like what happened during the pandemic) become a preferred practice? This allows an agent more time to address the change in buyer practices in a less chaotic environment.

How will all of this flow in real life? Buyers are an impatient bunch and thanks to the instant gratification of our society, used to being able to see what they want when they want. 

4. How will referral fees be handled post-settlement?

There has been little discussion surrounding referral fees and how those will be handled because of the settlement. Referral fees are big business and a viable pipeline for brokerages. Referrals come from a multitude of channels, whether that is generated through a relocation company, broker-to-broker, affinity programs, lenders, lead generation platforms, portals, etc.

How does the new way of doing business impact referral fees if lesser amounts of compensation are paid to the buyer’s brokerage in a transaction that results in not being able to pay a referral fee? 

What about those situations where the buyer must pay for all, or part of their agent’s compensation and the buyer cannot afford to pay it (and seller will not). Will buyers opt to find an agent who will not be attached to a referral fee from another source?

Referral sources need to be transparent with the buyer and seller leads they are generating in addressing the required practice changes because of the class action litigation, so they understand how this can potentially impact them, the agent they are working with and their buying and/or selling process.

More transparency is surely needed with this aspect of the business. The agent they are referred to should not have to be the sole explainer of the new way of doing business. All leads should be primed into the new normal and prepared on what to expect before being connected to an agent in the market where they need assistance. 

5.What about the many variables and unknowns with the process for confirming compensation with listing agents other than by phone, email and text at this point, in addition to forms to solidify compensation and the process for them?

These are murky at best, depending on where you are located. Many what ifs about “bait and switch” compensation by listing agents and if compensation agreed to by a seller depends on what the buyer’s offer is and things along those lines.

In reality, will agents be forced to negotiate their compensation depending on what their buyer’s offer is? This is a big anxiety point among agents working with buyers. And just to point out, many agents fall on both sides of the buyer and seller aisle. Sellers become buyers and buyers become sellers.

6. What is the role of the Department of Justice with respect to brokerage, state and local Realtor association forms? 

We’ve seen recent intervention with their formal inquiry into the California of Association of Realtors buyer representation agreement. Will they be making more inquiries? Are they quietly requiring these forms to be sent to them for review before the Aug. 17, 2024, settlement implementation date? Will there be more inquiries into the various forms and business practices as we go along? Will these change periodically based on continual Department of Justice input? NAR has said very little because of their meetings with the DOJ. 

7. Who are all the players involved in the Consumer Federation of America (CFA), who makes up their staff, do they have a roster of consultants, how much are they paid and how do they get their funding? 

Why have they taken such a vocal role against the real estate industry? What is the connection between the Department of Justice and all the attorneys involved in these class action lawsuits? Does NAR know more about this than they are sharing with us, their membership? Why aren’t we as an industry asking more questions about this group and demanding more transparency?

How are they obtaining the various real estate forms that they are critiquing, criticizing and contacting the Department of Justice about? So many questions arise about this mysterious organization that continually weighs in on a profession that they have never worked in. Their characterization of the real estate business, how agents service buyers and sellers, claims about representation, fees charged and how to negotiate with a consumer are completely misguided.

Their recent commentary regarding various forms comparing one brokerage’s buyer representation agreement to an actual state form that accounts for numerous details and situations and is extremely thorough is like comparing apples to oranges. Why so much focus on the real estate industry over other professions? 

Why don’t they look into other industries? For example, what about the mortgage industry with closing costs and fees? Those fees are not negotiable. Lenders may push loan products that yield them the best commission, not always what is in the best interest of the customer.

Furthermore, many lenders are concerned about clawbacks, whereby they may have to pay back the commission earned on the loan if the consumer refinances within a year, which may affect the kind of advice and loans they are suggesting. This is a little-discussed secret in the lending world.

The title insurance industry is another one whereby the costs of title insurance are not negotiable and little legwork is being done on a closing until a file has been sent to the title or escrow company. Yes, sometimes closings fall through, but that pales in comparison to the time and effort that a real estate agent has put in with their buyer or seller, particularly if they are unrealistic, complicated, difficult and indecisive, which seems to be many real estate consumers given the current climate. 

Any professional services business has a services/fee agreement whether you are hiring a general contractor, interior designer, accountant, attorney, home improvement company and the list goes on. Are those fee agreements scrutinized and analyzed for “fairness” to the consumer? What about the builder contracts buyers must sign when purchasing a new home? Those are unilateral and always in favor of the builder. Talk about needing an attorney to review before a consumer signs those.

However, it really won’t matter because builder contracts are typically non-negotiable, and the builder’s answer to agent questions and concerns on behalf of their buyers, as well as buyer questions and concerns, is whether it is their way or the highway. Why is this organization not taking more issue with these kinds of things? 

8.What about the plethora of cases and post-settlement lawsuits by buyers and sellers? 

Several cases are ongoing against the original defendants in the Sitzer Burnett case as well as other cases. Issues range from allegations that buyers paid too much when buying a home because sellers had to pay a real estate commission, to more seller plaintiffs’ claims that the current settlement amounts from the Sitzer | Burnett case are not enough.

Will any of this ever get resolved or will it pave the way for even more lawsuits to continually be hanging over the industry like a hurricane that won’t move, but continues to gain steam?

9.When all is said and done, how much do the attorneys in all of these lawsuits (including copycats) get vs. the amount paid out per seller that opts into the class action? 

What about the lead plaintiffs in the Sitzer Burnett case? Various numbers have been bantered about over the last few months, but we should demand a full accounting of what ends up being paid, the exact amounts and to what parties and the number of sellers that opted in. What about those sellers that do not opt-in? Will they still receive something?

It is not unusual with large class action lawsuits to receive a surprise check in the mail or notice you are eligible for some obscure amount of money, even when the consumer didn’t opt into the lawsuit in the first place. 

10.Will dual agency, transaction brokerage or whatever term is used in various markets that allow one agent to represent a buyer and seller in the same transaction no longer be permitted in states where it is currently allowed? 

Will state governments make that call and pass legislation prohibiting this or will that be something done at the Federal level?

11. So what happens after 7 years or because of staff changes at the DOJ from an election or otherwise? 

Will the settlement be dissolved, amended or extended after seven years? Will a different administration or changes in staff result in different priorities for the Department of Justice other than the real estate industry?

Will they be open to feedback because of the practice changes that took place and any adjustments that need to be made? Or will the way real estate is done continually change depending on the administration and the Department of Justice?

Will the forms used in buyer and seller representation and associated with the purchase of real estate be subject to DOJ approval each time changes are made?

That sounds like an awful lot to administer and keep track of.

12. Will buyer representation eventually become required and administered at the Federal level? 

Although some states already require it and other states may be planning to make it mandatory, what about the states that just rely on the NAR settlement? For buyer agency to have more significance and to reinforce the profession to be taken more seriously, should it be required by the United States government? Is it time for a United States Department of Real Estate vs. funneling all through the Department of Justice for approval and all the stress that ensues from that, not knowing what will and won’t be taken issue with?

The countries that were cited in the Sitzer | Burnett case, although they have vastly different real estate systems vs. the United States, require buyer agency in their respective governments. That is very different from a complicated patchwork across all the states in the United States of America with different rules and requirements. 

13. Where do we go from here as far as pre-, post-licensing, continuing and license renewal education? 

What will the content of future coursework be like? Do entirely new training classes need to be developed beyond buyer agency to essentially revamp and retrain agents across the country? Perhaps real estate 3.0? 

While the fundamentals haven’t changed, there are so many new ways of interacting and connecting with the consumer who has access to more information than ever. At the same time, the industry has access to more big data than ever. How can we effectively utilize this data in a responsible manner to reinforce our professionalism, knowledge, savvy and insight to help become even better advocates for the buyers and sellers we represent?

Will stricter licensing requirements eventually ensue because of the lawsuits? Will it require more education, training and mentoring before a new agent can work with a buyer or seller on their own? Sure, agents are supposed to be legally supervised by their manager or broker, but as we know, the range of that varies widely from brokerage to brokerage. 

The class action litigation and issues arising from all of this are far from over. There are still many unknowns and confusion to work through and the outcome of pending cases could impact practice changes.

Conflict will likely arise as the implementation goes into effect. There won’t be a buyer agent “articulation of value problem,” there will be an “industry confusion problem,” over processes, procedures, various buyer agency situations, compliance, enforcement and working with consumers in a clear, confident and consistent manner that has been effectively communicated by all agents in the respective marketplaces they work.

We are going to need more than “Good Luck” and “Godspeed” to move through the turbulence ahead. Make sure your seatbelts are fastened low and tight and brace for potential impact. 

Cara Ameer is a bi-coastal agent licensed in California and Florida with Coldwell Banker. You can follow her on Facebook or on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Forced to move? Not quite. The real reasons buyers are shopping now

A surprising share of homebuyers are seeking to “move up” in home. And the next wave of clients may have different priorities in mind, according to the Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey.

This report is available exclusively to subscribers of Inman Intel, the data and research arm of Inman offering deep insights and market intelligence on the business of residential real estate and proptech. Subscribe today.

More U.S. adults have become open to buying a home in the coming months, and the factors driving active shoppers amid this depressed market are more varied than is often assumed, a new Intel survey finds.

  • The share of working U.S. adults who said they were at least somewhat likely to buy a home in the next 12 months inched up by 3 percentage points from April to July, according to the Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey.
  • The share of adults who said they were actively shopping for homes also rose over the past three months — although this likely reflects seasonal activity in the heat of the summer market, when housing demand is near its peak.

The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey ran in early July and received responses from 3,000 adults with full-time or part-time jobs. Its results shed light on how potential real estate clients — both in the present and near-future — are thinking about the home market.

The survey also produced a host of detailed insights into consumer attitudes, including:

  • What drove today’s active homebuyers to the market 
  • What non-buyers say will pull them into the market in the months ahead
  • How renters and homeowners are viewing the landscape in their own unique ways

Read the full findings in the report below.

More than just ‘forced to move’

Even in times of poor affordability, major life changes help prop up home transactions: events like job change, marriage, having kids, death or divorce.

And that’s part of the picture for sure.

But real estate professionals — and now, homebuyers themselves — will also tell you it’s more complex than that.

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Active homebuyers tell the Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey that they are motivated by a host of factors — including, surprisingly, the desire to find a larger or nicer home even in this high-rate environment.

Share of active homebuyers in early July who said their decision to buy is motivated in part by…

  • 32% — Seeking larger or nicer house
  • 31% — Job-related relocation
  • 29% — Financial benefits of homeownership
  • 25% — Moving closer to family
  • 17% — Getting married
  • 17% — Planning to retire
  • 15% — Having a child
  • 15% — Seeking second home or investment property
  • 15% — Seeking smaller or more affordable house
  • 11% — Seeking better school district
  • 8% — Getting divorced
  • 7% — Children moving out of the home

The desire to upgrade one’s home often goes underdiscussed in real estate circles these days, but this survey demonstrates that it remains one of the top factors driving consumers to the home market.

That share of consumers may still be lower today than it was when mortgages were cheaper and homes more affordable. But because July was the first time the survey asked this question, Intel is not in a position say how that share had changed over time.

That said, the active buyers who said they were seeking a larger or nicer house did give some clues as to their thinking. Buyers seeking a home upgrade were less likely to say they were moving for family-related reasons, and more likely to say that a job change, a better school district or plans to retire were driving their decision to buy now.

Intel also identified that significantly different factors are driving homeowners and buyers to the market.

Today’s homeowners actively shopping for homes are more likely than renters to be driven by:

  • Job-related relocation — 36%
  • Seeking second home or investment property — 22%
  • Moving closer to family — 29%
  • Planning to retire — 19%

Today’s renters actively shopping for homes are more likely than homeowners to be driven by:

  • Getting married — 22%
  • Seeking a better school district — 15%
  • Seeking a larger or nicer home — 35%
  • Financial benefits of homeownership — 31%

These results represent the current pool of buyers that real estate agents were working with day-in and day-out in early July.

But Intel also sought the opinions of buyers who are not yet on the market, but expect to enter it sometime soon.

The next wave of buyers

The next 12 months are likely to bring more buyers into the fold — but they’re likely to be even more sensitive to affordability than the clients of today have been.

They’re also less likely to be investors, and less likely to expect to have to move as a result of a change in their employment.

  • Only 20 percent of near-term future buyers say that they expect they’ll be driven by a job-related relocation. That’s compared to 31 percent of today’s buyers who say a job change is driving them to move. This may be largely driven by the fact that job changes can be difficult to predict in advance.
  • A mere 9 percent of future buyers say they’ll be seeking a second home or investment property, compared to 15 percent of today’s buyers who say the same.

Instead, the next wave of homebuyers are especially likely to say they’ll be motivated by a desire to downsize.

  • 19 percent of near-future buyers say they’ll look at downsizing or lowering their monthly housing costs when they hit the market, compared to 15 percent of buyers today.
  • 11 percent of future buyers say that they’re planning to move because children are moving out of the home, compared to 7 percent of active buyers.

Certain tendencies also stood out among homeowners and renters who were likely to buy a home in the next 12 months.

Today’s homeowners who are not actively shopping, but expect to buy in the coming year, are more likely to be driven by:

  • Planning to retire — 21%
  • Getting divorced — 11%
  • Children moving out of the home — 12%

Today’s renters who are not actively shopping, but expect to buy in the coming year, are more likely to be driven by:

  • Financial benefits of homeownership — 36%
  • Seeking a larger or nicer home — 38%
  • Seeking a smaller or more affordable home — 20%

It’s notable that renters can be driven one of two ways, depending on their situation: Many are seeking a larger or nicer place than their current rental unit, as expected. 

But we also see signs that renters care more about affordability than other groups. As such, some consumers renting a house may be looking to move into a smaller place when they purchase.

The renters who plan to buy in the next 12 months are more likely to say they’re driven by the financial benefits of homeownership than renters who are shopping for homes today. In today’s challenging affordability environment, it’s possible that active shoppers are a bit less enthusiastic that their home purchase will be a sound financial investment.

About the Inman-Dig Insights Consumer Survey

The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey was conducted from July 5 through July 7 to gauge the opinions and behaviors of Americans related to homebuying. 

The survey sampled a diverse group of 3,000 American adults, ranging in age from 24 to 65 and employed either full-time or part-time. The participants were selected to produce a broadly representative breakdown by age, gender and region.

Statistical rigor was maintained throughout the study, and the results should be largely representative of attitudes held by U.S. adults with full- or part-time jobs. Both Inman and Dig Insights are majority-owned by Toronto-based Beringer Capital.

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