BiggerNews: 2 Real Estate Markets That PROVE Cash Flow Is Alive in 2024

Cash flow is hard to find in 2024, but these real estate markets have plenty of it. Since so many previously “cash-flowing” markets have seen rising prices, higher expenses, and limited housing inventory, we went back to the drawing board to reevaluate which markets in the United States offer the most cash flow potential. Today, we share these markets and hone in on two specific ones with real-life on-market examples to prove that cash flow is still possible.

But before we get into that, we’re sharing the cash flow formula even beginners can use to quickly calculate whether a rental property will cash flow. Then, we describe what type of cash-on-cash return WE target in today’s market and list some of the most cash-flowing markets of 2024.

Want to see real cash-flowing rental property examples? We’re hopping over to BiggerPockets Deal Finder as we quickly analyze two separate rental properties in two cash-flowing markets to prove that these properties do sport some serious cash flow. Don’t believe us? Head over to BiggerPockets Market Finder, where you can see the nation’s top rent-to-price investing areas (that’s where the cash flow is!).

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
If you’ve been analyzing deals or trying to get into the real estate game for the last year or two, you already know this, but I’m gonna say it anyway, strong cash flow is getting harder and harder to find. And a lot of people are saying that the 1% rule is dead, or that it’s just impossible to find cash flow today. But harder doesn’t mean impossible. And today we’re gonna prove it to you with real markets, real deals and real numbers. I promise you all great deals do exist. You just need to know where to find them.

Dave:
Hey everyone, it’s Dave, it’s Friday, which means it’s time for bigger news. And we’ve got a great one lined up for you today. My friend and on the market co-host Henry Washington, is here to talk about the best markets for finding cash flowing deals right now. And we’re actually not just gonna talk about what markets are great, but we’re gonna actually analyze real deals from the MLS in the markets that we’re talking about. So you can see what kind of returns you can expect. Henry, man, it’s good to have you back on the show. Thanks for being here.

Henry:
Hey man, thanks for having me. You know, I love doing shows where we’re talking about finding good deals. That’s my jam.

Dave:
Yes. Well, we have the, the, uh, expert in the house. So thank you and I do wanna hear what you’ve been up to recently. And in order to do that, we’re actually trying something new. Everyone after this episode records, Henry and I are gonna record an after show. It’s gonna be exclusively on our YouTube channel where we just casually talk about what he and I have been up to in our portfolio. ’cause we don’t always have time for that on these shows, but we think it’s gonna be helpful for you to just see the challenges, the successes that Henry and I are both having in our real estate investing. So if you’re listening to this, go check out the YouTube channel and check out our new, uh, idea that we’re testing out the after show.

Henry:
Yeah, it’s cool. So guys, I just snagged a couple of cool deals that I want to talk about, so that’ll be fun.

Dave:
Oh, I’m very interested to hear more about this. I’m having the opposite, uh, right now. . So at least we’ll hear some successes from you . Great,

Henry:
Great. Well on this show we are gonna talk about which metrics investors should use to project future cash flow. We’ll also talk about what regions pop when you start running the numbers and seeing where you can actually get some cash flow and which markets in those regions are our top picks for cash flow right now.

Dave:
Awesome. This is gonna be a lot of fun. Before we get into it, I should just correct something. I said that after show that we’re filming, it’s happening, but it’s not coming out till next Tuesday. So I know you all are gonna be waiting all weekend furiously refreshing your set, your alarms, set your alarms for Tuesday because you could hear more of me and Henry on the BiggerPockets YouTube channel. But with that, let’s get into our episode today talking about cashflow markets. All right, Henry, so today we’re obviously talking cashflow, but before we get into specific markets and the specific deals, let’s just define the term for anyone who’s new to real estate investing. When we talk about cashflow for property, how do you think about and calculate cashflow?

Henry:
Uh, isn’t cashflow just any money that’s more than the mortgage payment?

Dave:
Oh yeah. All you gotta do is you just take your rent, you subtract your biggest expense, and then just ignore all the other expenses. You don’t need to think about them.

Henry:
Absolutely . Absolutely. Yeah. So when we talk about cash flow, what we’re really saying is net cash flow. That is what you net after all of your expenses. And a lot of investors like to leave off certain expenses to kind of make the numbers work. Mm-Hmm, . But the truth of the matter is, in this market that is very difficult to do because people, everybody thinks, oh, well interest rates are higher. So it’s hard to cash flow, unfortunately. It’s not just interest rates now that are higher. So when you are calculating your net cash flow, you take your total rent amount for the month, you subtract your debt service. So that’s your mortgage, uh, your mortgage payment, and whatever your interest is, you also need to subtract your expenses. And we’re talking all expenses. And these are gonna vary based on your market, but one expense people always forget about is vacancy, right?

Henry:
Mm-Hmm. . Because you’re never going to have your place a hundred percent full all the time. It will be vacant, there will be turnover. And so in order to calculate this correctly, you need to understand what vacancy rates are in your market. You can get this by doing a little research yourself. You can get this by talking to an investor friendly real estate agent. I’d urge you to talk to several of them to make sure that the data is accurate. So you subtract your vacancy, you subtract your maintenance, everybody knows about maintenance, right? Normal wear and tear things are gonna break. Um, we typically do about 5%. If it’s an older house, we’ll do a little higher. We may do eight to 10%, uh, for vacancy.

Dave:
When Henry says five to 8% you’re talking about of rent, right? Yes. Like you take five to 8% of your revenue and set that aside, uh, as an an expense. Even if you don’t need it every month, you just put it on the side.

Henry:
We have a rental expenses account that we automatically set up draws to come out of our rental income account every month based on those percentages. So we didn’t have to think about it. And then if we need it, great. If we don’t, it’s there. So five to 8%, depending on the age and how much maintenance you think it’s gonna need. And then capital expenses because there are things that just go bad over time. HVACs don’t last forever. Water heaters don’t last forever. Roofs don’t last forever. They’re big capital expenses. You need to be budgeting a little bit every month for when they do fail. You can’t afford to replace them. So you got your capital expenses and then you have to budget for property management. Even if you are managing properties yourself.

Dave:
Yes.

Henry:
Because you may think, I’m never hiring a property manager. And then you grow your business or something terrible happens and you’re like, you know what? Property management isn’t for me and you want to turn your portfolio over to a property manager and you didn’t budget for it. Well, all your cash flow gets eaten up by this new 10% expense you have to pay. So budget, 10% property management when you’re doing your cash flow. So then make sure that your insurance budget is accurate because insurance has gone up over time. If you have been investing for a year or two now and you haven’t adjusted what you’re budgeting for your insurance, you need to take a look at it because they have gone up over the past year and you wanna make sure that that’s accurate. And so your cash flow for this very long-winded answer, your net cash flow is what is left from the rent every month after you subtract all of these things.

Dave:
Well said, Henry, thank you for putting it so clearly and actually using the right metrics and the right categories here for expenses. I, it just makes me so mad, honestly, seeing people on social media, honestly being like, I get a 10% cash on cash return. I get a 15% cash on cash return. And you ask what expenses they’re taking out. They’re like principal insurance, taxes and maybe maintenance. But there are things like vacancy, property management turnover costs for when you eventually do have to do it, do. And when we talk about cashflow during the, for the remainder of this episode and for the future of this podcast, we are talking about underwriting using all of these categories. And this, some people may say that you’re being overly conservative. Fine, I’m fine with that. Yeah, exactly. Like I would rather invest in a deal that has a 5% cash on cash return that is underwritten with all the things you just said it than just pretend that I’m gonna get a 12% cash on cash return and hope that everything goes extremely well.

Dave:
So just keep that in mind as we’re talking about this, that we’re talking about fundamentally sound conservative underwriting so that the cash on cash return that you get at the end of this analysis is hopefully the worst case scenario, right? Like that’s how I always think about is like if I’m looking at 5%, that’s if everything goes wrong, hopefully not everything’s gonna go wrong, I get eight, nine, 10% cash on cash return. But I think that can be confusing for people when you see other educators in the real estate space talking about these massive numbers that maybe aren’t underwritten with the same degree of scrutiny.

Henry:
And to be fair to people, like you could be a little wishy-washy about your numbers two, three years ago, right? Because values were going up so high, insurance wasn’t as high, taxes weren’t as high interest rates weren’t as high and rents were going up. So you could underwrite a deal, miss a couple of these expenses and look at the end of the month and still say, man, I made some good cash flow. You probably did.

Dave:
Yeah, , but it’s

Henry:
Not like that anymore. You really this, this, this new market with the interest rates and the taxes and the insurance all being higher, it will eat your lunch if you are not prepared. And if you’re a new investor who doesn’t have other cash flow properties helping to carry a portfolio, or you’re not sitting on cash reserves that you can use to fund your portfolio, when you miss one of these, uh, expenses, then you’re gonna find yourself in a world of hurt. It’s really the new investors who don’t have that cushion yet. Mm-Hmm, that really, really need to pay attention to this episode.

Dave:
That’s such a good point. I, uh, yeah, I’ll talk about this more when we catch up later, but I had this, uh, rough week as a, as a property manager, but it was okay because I’ve owned this property forever. So the cash reserves have just like, you know, built up a lot over time. So I’m fine, like I had cash reserves for it, but if you’re brand new to it and you hadn’t allocated for some of the things I’ve gone through in the last week, you’d be in a a, a tough uh, situation. Alright, time for a break, but we’ll be back shortly. Thanks for sticking with us. We’re back with bigger news. Okay. So we’re going to get into our list of top markets and then actually analyze some deals in those markets just to show you what type of returns you can expect. But before we do that, Henry, let me just ask you, what type of cash on cash returns do you normally look for?

Henry:
Yeah, I mean, obviously a 10% cash on cash return is great. I’d love to underwrite it and see a 10% cash on cash return. That doesn’t always happen, quite frankly. It’s, uh, pretty rare that I’ll see them. Now, if you’re truly underwriting deals properly, like we just talked about, um, we’re typically seeing somewhere near half of that. And I’m okay with that right now.

Dave:
Mm-Hmm,

Henry:
For a couple of reasons, right? Again, guys, I am a seasoned investor, which means yes, I want cash flow, but there’s other parts of how real estate pays you that are important to me as well because of the tax benefits. Because how much equity am I walking into on day one? There’s other things that I’m also looking for, but um, sure, I’d like to underwrite it at a 10% cash on cash return, but typically we’re seeing probably closer to five.

Dave:
Yeah.

Henry:
Six. And I like those deals. Those are solid deals. ’cause that’s telling me that in the worst case scenario, this property is paying for itself, uh, and still paying me a little bit of money every month. And, uh, given all of the factors working against me right now, I think that’s pretty solid.

Dave:
Totally. I don’t wanna go on a whole resource allocation tangent here, but it really, you have to think about how you’re allocating your money. And a five or 6% cash on cash return is so much better than any cash that you can get anywhere else. Mm-Hmm. even a, a high yield savings account, they’re at 5% right now. Probably this week in the middle of, you know, Fed’s gonna cut rates, that means savings account rates are gonna go down. So you know, you’re getting 4% there, bonds aren’t as good. So you are getting better cash than you can get in pretty much any other type of investment asset. Plus the amortization, the appreciation, the tax benefits. And so, like to me, that’s still a great deal. And again, we’re underwriting these deals that that is the worst case scenario that you’re gonna get for the deal.

Dave:
So just keep that all in mind as as we are, uh, talking about this deal. All right, let’s start talking about, uh, just some of the ways that we look for cash flow. So you’ve probably all heard this term or this metric, the RTP or rent to price ratio, if you’ve heard of the 1% rule that is applying this metric called the rent to price ratio. And it’s basically this very frankly, pretty crude metric that looks and helps you estimate cash flow. It basically looks at how much a property costs and compares that to how much rent that you can generate from it. And when you divide one month of rent by the purchase price of a property, the closer you are to 1% the better. If you’re above 1%, that’s generally seen as really great. Now, I don’t know about you, Henry, but I gave up on the 1% rule a long time ago. Is it so something that you think about?

Henry:
I’ve never used it as a hard and fast rule. For me, it’s always just been a, a rule of thumb or a measuring stick to know if I’m actually considering or looking at a what could be a good deal?

Dave:
Mm-Hmm. .

Henry:
If I get a lead in my inbox and I do some quick math and go, well, if I rent it for this and if I buy it for this, will I hit 1%? Yeah. Then I know that I can pursue that deal and then I’m gonna try to get it cheaper than that so that I can get more than 1%. But I’ve never thought, oh, well it hit 1%, I’m buying it. That’s not what it, that’s it’s not a hard and fast rule for me. It’s always just been a measuring stick to know, am I looking at what could potentially be a good deal here?

Dave:
Yeah, that’s a perfect way to put it. I I think it’s a good way to compare two similar assets, right? So if you are looking at, in the same neighborhood where taxes and insurance are likely to be the same and two different properties, one’s better, you know, one has a higher enterprise ratio than the other, you can say, okay, this one probably is gonna generate more cash flow. Or if you’re doing, comparing markets, for example, that one, it works as a proxy, but it, it’s not a be all end all because, you know, different markets, like you might have a really high rent to price ratio in Texas. Texas has some of the highest property taxes in the country. Mm-Hmm. It has really high insurance costs right now. So those are things that you obviously have to factor in as well. But it still can be useful. It’s like as long as you take it with a grain of salt, uh, it’s still useful. But I also just think the 1% rule at this point in the investing cycle does more harm than good because Right, because more people are saying like, oh, I can’t find a deal that’s 1% rule, I’m not gonna get into real estate. You’re like, well, the deal at 0.8 or 0.9 is still better than anything else that you would do with your money. So you should probably reconsider that rule a little

Henry:
Bit. I agree.

Dave:
Anyway, I wanted to talk about rent to price because just to help people understand where regionally in the country cashflow is generally easier to find. You find the highest rent to price ratios right now in the Midwest. Uh, so you look at places like Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, those places tend to have better rent to price ratio. It’s been like that in the southeast a lot, but Southeast has gotten more expensive over the last couple years. But I still think, I mean, you know better than me, I still think there are places there that offer cashflow in the southeast

Henry:
When I was doing research for this show, uh, it’s pretty much you just draw a circle around the Great Lakes. It’s like the, it’s like, you know, they have lake effect snow, you have lake effect cash flow, . That’s what, that’s what, that’s where you get it right now. , that

Dave:
Is such a good term. You should, you should trademark that Lake Effect. Cash flow is great. . Yeah, you definitely see a place like Milwaukee or a lot of Ohio or Michigan.

Henry:
There’s like a sweet spot right in between Milwaukee and Chicago where it’s like cashflow heaven.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s great. And just so everyone knows, like there’s usually trade offs. A lot of places that offer the best cash flow don’t appreciate as much right now. A lot of those markets are appreciating, but historically that relationship does exist. Um, I will just tell you that I did put out a list of top cashflow markets earlier this year, and they’re not all in the northeast. ’cause I did sort of some other metrics other than rent to price ratio. I looked at job growth, population growth, and number one was in the Great Lakes. It does have lake effect cash flow in Peoria, Illinois. Uh, but then you see places like Shreveport, Louisiana, which I know our colleague, uh, Tony Robinson on the rookie podcast is much maligned to admit he is invested in. Um, but you see places like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, which has a great economy up there, um, places like in Texas, like Lubbock, Texas, Corpus Christi, so they really can be found all over the country. But I thought it’d be fun, Henry, to just pick two markets that have decent rent to price ratios and just walk through one of the deals. Are you, uh, wanna do this?

Henry:
Dude, I’m a deal junkie. Let’s do it.

Dave:
Let’s do it. Okay. So the first one I picked, I think I picked this on, I went on the rookie show recently and it asked me to pick a market I would invest in, and I picked Pittsburgh.

Henry:
Mm-Hmm. .

Dave:
So the things that I like about Pittsburgh is one, it has a, it’s a big population, 2.4 million people. It’s growing, but the median home price is $200,000, which means that it is half the national average. So it’s super affordable, but it’s like the epicenter of the robotics industry in the United States. And so there’s a lot of really high paying good jobs. There’s great price growth, uh, and from what I read, there’s decent quality of life and quality of living. So, and just for the record, Pittsburgh’s rent to price ratio on average is about 0.7, which might sound terrible, but by rule that means of the deals in that market are better than 0.7 and half of them are worse. So I went on the BiggerPockets deal finder and just poked around for honestly two or three minutes and found this deal. It is on the market MLS, it’s a four bed, two bath, 1800 square foot house. It looks really nice. It’s like one of these brick buildings. It looks like it’s recently had a cosmetic update. Are you looking at these pictures?

Henry:
Yeah, man. No, it looks clean.

Dave:
It looks pretty nice, right?

Henry:
Like it’s ready to go.

Dave:
Yeah, it’s on sale for 1 75 and the rent estimate from the BiggerPockets deal finder is $1,737. So it’s not quite 1% , but it’s like the 0.99% rule, which is great. So when I analyze this deal, full purchase price, no rehab, paying VMs, CapEx, maintenance vacancy, everything that you said, this deal is a 5% cash on cash return.

Henry:
That’s a solid deal, bro.

Dave:
Right

Henry:
Rick? All the way around final windows and a couple of them like, it looks like this is, this is pretty solid, man.

Dave:
I know, right? So I, it got me excited because I felt like I spent almost zero time looking for this. And this is an already renovated turnkey property. Like this is one that you wouldn’t have to do any work for. If you wanted to do more work than this, you probably could get even a better cash on cash return if you’re willing to do some of the cosmetic rehab yourself.

Henry:
Oh yeah.

Dave:
So I just wanted to show you this just as an example because to me it showcases the fact that cash flowing deals on the market are absolutely still possible if you just look in the right places. Is this a kind of deal that you would see in your market, Henry? Like, could you think you could get cash on cash return, 5% turnkey, turnkey like this?

Henry:
Yeah. No, no, definitely not.

Dave:
So when you were saying 5% earlier, that’s after a little bit of work, right?

Henry:
Yes, absolutely. This is, that’s after buying value add. Like what’s cool about this deal you’re showing is this is 5% cash on cash return day one.

Dave:
Day one,

Henry:
Right? And so in my market, I’m getting 5% cash on cash return, takes me six months to renovate it. I mean, uh, three months to renovate it, another month or two to throw somebody in there. And then they’re paying rent and deposit. And so by the time that happens, you’re six months down the road before you’re actually starting to see some of the fruits of your labor.

Dave:
Yeah.

Henry:
And so this is a, a day one property. And what’s also cool about it being a day one property is you can go ahead and start getting the tax benefits because the property has to be in operation before you really get a lot of those tax benefits,

Dave:
Right? Yeah, absolutely. That’s so true. That’s a great point. And of course, there’s a benefit to doing what you were talking about in doing a rehab because you know, you’re increasing the value of the property and building equity at the same time. But if you’re the type of investor who just wants low headache, easy type of deal, like do go do this. Go buy real estate in Pittsburgh. , I don’t understand ,

Henry:
But it just, it it squashes that. ’cause everybody’s saying it, you can’t find cash flow. It’s too hard to get cash flow. You can’t find any good deals. You found one in five minutes,

Dave:
Dude, it was so easy. Yeah. And I, I started investing earlier this year in a market with a little bit of lake effect cash flow. And I’m finding these kind of deals as well. Like in my mind, the best one you can find is somewhere that has like a three to 4% cash on cash return. But after a cosmetic rehab, you can get like a seven or eight cash on cash return, which definitely exists in a lot of markets. This was just one I I picked up out of nowhere. Okay. We have to take a quick break, but I first wanted to remind you that if you’re looking for deals right now, the BiggerPockets deal finder can help. This is actually what I used when I was doing research for this show and I picked these markets and just wanted to find a deal as an example of what you could find in there. It took me just a couple of minutes to find cash flowing deals, and you can check it out by going to biggerpockets.com/deal finder. We’ll be right back. Welcome back. Let’s jump back in with Henry Washington. So the other market people tell me about a lot is Augusta, Georgia. Never been there. I just know the masters. Is there you ever been?

Henry:
No, never been. But I obviously would love to go watch the masters.

Dave:
I tried. I I put myself in the, uh, the lottery and that was like seven years ago and I’ve never heard a single peek about it. . I don’t think I’ve ever going , but it looks so fun. And apparently, have you heard this thing about the masters where the food is like extremely cheap?

Henry:
Dirt cheap? Yeah.

Dave:
Yeah. What is that? So it’s like they make you wait nine years and pay a thousand dollars for a ticket and then you get a $2 cheeseburger.

Henry:
Yeah, it’s totally worth it.

Dave:
That works. That kind of marketing works on me . So I would go . All right, so in Augusta, just a couple stats, again, I’ve never been there, so I don’t know that much about it, but I could tell you that the median home price is about 230,000. Rent to price ratio is lower at 0.6%. But something I like about it is that it’s still relatively affordable. Uh, when you, for, for the average citizen there, it’s easy to relatively easy to pay rent compared to a lot of more expensive places. It seems to have a growing economy. Population is growing low unemployment rate. So a lot of things that you look for in a city. Um, and again, at 0.6% rent to price ratio, I thought I would take a look and see if I could find a deal. So instead of spending three minutes looking for this deal, I really, I dug deep and I spent maybe seven minutes looking for this deal. Whoa. Yeah, it was pretty intense. Uh, and this one, what we got here again on the market, another four, two, it’s about 2000 square feet. It’s built in 1957, which is pretty good. I think a lot of, one of the things about the Midwest, I’ve noticed investing there is a lot of the houses are super old. Yeah.

Henry:
Like

Dave:
You find houses in the 1890s, 19 hundreds. So that comes with some, some challenges. But this place, to me, the outside exterior is nice. The inside it needs a little bit of love. So I actually went to the BiggerPockets calculator and ran the analysis. I still plan to buy it for full purchase price, which, uh, it is listed for 185,000. But I said that I was gonna spend, i I just really roughly estimated this. So take this with a grain of salt, 20,000 bucks on repairs. Mm-Hmm. . I don’t know if that, do you think that’s like a reasonable estimate? Just looking at the pictures?

Henry:
I think that might be a smidge low. I’d say this is probably a 30 K or

Dave:
Okay. 30 k know what? I’m gonna use a BiggerPockets calculator. I’m gonna just change this right now. 30 k tell me Henry, it’s listed for 180 5. If we put 30 K in, what do you think the after repair value is?

Henry:
Two 30.

Dave:
Two 30. All right. I like it. Obviously everyone, this is not how you should underwrite deals long term, but honestly this is how I do a lot of like preliminary analysis. Like if someone sends you a deal, I just use estimates, rules of thumb to see if you’re in the right ballpark and then start refining your estimates from there. So if we do this, I assume that I’m gonna be able to, uh, raise my rent a little bit. I’m gonna hit next expenses, update my analysis here. Okay, dude. So if we did this, even putting in 30 grant, this property would generate $446 a month in cashflow and for a 6.6% cash on cash return. That’s right. In your wheelhouse.

Henry:
That’s solid.

Dave:
Yeah. And in addition to that, you were improving the value of the property, so you were also gaining equity in this type of deal.

Henry:
Yeah, man.

Dave:
Now I obviously, we don’t know if this deal is exactly right. You might walk into this place and say, there’s foundation issues, there’s structural issues. This is gonna cost 70 grand, 80 grand. But my hunch is that if in seven minutes of looking on the MLS, I could find a deal that sort of makes sense just by the eyeball test that if you spent some time doing what your job is as an investor to go in and analyze and look for these deals,

Henry:
Diligence

Dave:
That you will be able to find them. Yeah, exactly. Right.

Henry:
I mean this is solid. Like this is, and to kind of echo what Dave was saying here is you, you do this eyeball test and this will tell you, you get a handful of properties like this that you can now dive deeper into and you can get somebody out there to get eyeballs on it, to walk it, to tell you the things you can’t see in pictures. And then you can select from those 3, 4, 5 properties, the one that’s actually gonna work, uh, that, that you’ve had physical or had somebody do put physical eyeballs on. And then you can make offers. And also Dave is analyzing this saying he’s going to pay what they’re asking.

Dave:
Yep.

Henry:
But guess , you don’t have to do that. . Yeah. This is as conservative underwriting as you can get. Yes. You can pay less than they’re asking. I tell people all the time, like, what if I told you that every deal cash flows, every single one cash flows at the price that it cash flows at for you . Like you can make whatever offer you want. You don’t have to pay what they’re asking.

Dave:
Yeah, exactly. That’s, that is the whole job, right? Like we’re just showing you that there’s opportunity. You as the investor have to go and figure out and sort of design the deal in a way that works for you and for some people that might be offering less. For some people that might be maybe looking at a property that’s not as in good as condition. Like the property I picked in Pittsburgh was like turnkey. That place was nice. If you want higher cash flow, uh, you might need find something that needs some work. Uh, or maybe you go the opposite direction. If you just wanna break even, you just find something that’s even nicer. But it’s totally up to you. I think my goal is I looked at these two markets and I said, what kind of deals would I personally just given my preferences, my investing style, what would I look for in these markets? And I was able to find deals like instantly. And these aren’t just two markets in the whole country. There’s has to be dozens of them. If these two that I sort of just picked based on some analysis, but they weren’t the only two options I had,

Henry:
I can hear it already. People are like, yeah, but I don’t live there. Right? Mm-Hmm. And so I get that you don’t live there, there are trade offs, right? So if you don’t live there, but you want to find a market that has cash flow, congratulations. These are some markets that have cash flow. The trade off is you’ve got to do the hard work to build a team in that market to help you get your deals to the numbers you’re looking for. So if you’re gonna, like for example, if you’re gonna buy this deal in Augusta, Georgia, well you’re gonna have to do the hard work to find the contractor that’s gonna do the work. Mm-Hmm. , you’re gonna have to do the hard work to find the property manager’s gonna manage the property for you. Right? It’s not as easy as if you could do it with people who are in your backyard.

Henry:
You’re right, it is gonna be a little harder, but not impossible. There are people who invest out of state every day. There are people who own properties outta state who’ve never seen them. If they can do it, you can do it too. It does take more work if you live in one of these places. Congratulations. You probably already know everything we’re talking about with these markets, right? . Yeah. Like, uh, uh, and, and so that’s just, that’s just part of it, right? But there are tools that are, that can help you do this. There’s technology that can help you do this and there’s good old fashioned buy a plane ticket and carry your butt over there that can help you do this too.

Dave:
Yeah, absolutely. And if you are one of those people who don’t wanna invest out of state, I would question why, first of all. But then second of all, it’s to say if you don’t, that’s fine. You should just invest where you live locally, but you’re probably not gonna get as good cash flow. Like if you live in a place like Los Angeles, like it’s just gonna be very difficult. There’s still ways to invest in real estate, but you’re probably gonna be investing for equity

Henry:
Yeah.

Dave:
In that market by doing flips or burrs or something like that. The topic of this show is cash flow. And the reality of the market right now is that unless you wanna do heavy rehab or maybe an owner-occupied strategy like house hacking in really expensive markets, it is going to be hard to find cash flow. Absolutely. Like that is gonna be very, very difficult. So your options are to not invest for cash flow. And that doesn’t mean that they have to be risky strategies. You just have to use other strategies or consider investing in some of these markets like the ones that we’re talking about here. So last question here, Henry, before we, we go, once you find these deals, you know, you’re fi making five, 6% in year one, I should say, because hopefully your cash flow is growing, uh, over time. Um, what, like what’s your philosophy about it? Do you hold onto these deals forever?

Henry:
It depends, right? So it depends on location. Let’s say you buy one of these deals and you buy it in a phenomenal location, right? Then that’s probably one I’m gonna look to hang onto for the long term. Let’s say I buy this deal and it’s cash flowing well, but then I realize I’m not getting the equity or the appreciation that I want over time. As I become a more seasoned investor in this market and I buy more deals, I might look to sell one of these deals to invest in a neighborhood I understand more that’s gonna get me the equity in the appreciation as you start to learn the market. So it really truly does depend on what your investing strategy and how sophisticated are you in that market. Uh, because I bought deals in my market, uh, in my first couple of years of investing that made great cash flow sense.

Henry:
But we’ve since sold because, um, the, uh, taxes have gone up Mm-Hmm. or they’re not appreciated like we want them to. And as I’ve become a more seasoned investor in my market, I know where I can find those. I’ll sell those and buy in better areas. You also have to consider your tax implications. So if you’ve bought these properties and you did a cost segregation study on that property, uh, that means you accelerated your depreciation, well then you probably have to sit on that thing, uh mm-hmm. for at least seven to 10 years, or you’re gonna end up having to pay back what you were able to write off in that depreciation in the front. So you really do have to have a strategy. What you and I have talked about this before, you need to be doing an analysis of your portfolio at, at at least on a yearly basis, but you should probably do it quarterly and just take a look at, are the properties producing the income that I underwrote them to produce? If they’re not, why are they not? And then what should I do about it if they’re not? Like, that’s something you should be asking yourself so that you’re evaluating your portfolio and you can make decisions along the way.

Dave:
Exactly. I know I’m beating a dead horse here, but it’s resource allocation, right? Like you, you might be getting great cash on a deal, but is that the best place to put your money? I don’t know. Your life changes, your, the rest of your portfolio changes. It’s like always shifting and changing. It’s not as simple to say like, I’m just gonna buy assets and hold onto them forever.

Henry:
Yeah.

Dave:
In fact, that was probably the biggest mistake I made early in my invested career as like, I bought an asset, it was going up, it was cash flowing, and I had so much equity that I could have, you know, grown way faster, but I was just so enamored by the cash flow number that I didn’t reallocate quickly enough. So just hopefully that you, everyone just continues to think about that and to look at it holistically. Cash flow is important, but it’s not the only thing that you should be looking at. And did wanna just call out something you said earlier, Henry, about depreciation and that, uh, if you do a cost seg, you need to hold onto a property longer. That’s another potential trade off with turnkey properties. Uh, you know, if you buy a, you know, a stabilized nice asset like the one I I found in Pittsburgh, you know, it’s making 5% cash on cash return.

Dave:
That’s a great cash on cash return. But the way that real estate works is the transaction costs are heavy. Mm-hmm, , right? If you’re gonna sell that, we’ll see how NAR changes things. But as of right now, you’re still paying 6% in commissions, plus marketing fees, staging, all that stuff gets you to eight, 10% transaction cost. And it takes several years of cashflow equity amortization on a stabilized deal to build up enough money to even turn a profit if you were going to sell it. So that is just something to think about. You have to hold onto those properties longer than if you did, uh, that second deal, like a value add. You can overcome some of those transaction fees by forcing appreciation. So last diatribe here. Well, Henry, thank you so much. This was a, this was a fun episode.

Henry:
Oh, this was great. This was like the fundamentals of real estate in this episode, man. Like, it seems like boring stuff, but man, this is the stuff you gotta do right, right now.

Dave:
This is, has everything you and I love is finding deals, talking data, talking numbers. This was a good one. Well, thank you so much Henry, and thank you all for listening. And again, if you wanna check out and learn more about what’s going on in Henry and my portfolio, make sure to head over the BiggerPockets YouTube channel. We’ll put a link below and that will come out this coming Tuesday for BiggerPockets. I’m Dave Meyer. He’s Henry Washington. Thanks for watching.

Help Us Out!

Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

In This Episode We Cover:

  • Two cities that have cash-flowing rental properties for sale RIGHT NOW
  • Precisely how to calculate cash flow for rental properties (and why most investors do this wrong)
  • The optimal cash-on-cash return we target that properties must meet before we bid on them
  • The 1% rule explained and whether or not it’s still worth using in 2024
  • When to sell a cash-flowing rental, even if it’s making you mailbox money every month
  • And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.

The Fed Finally Cuts Rates, but Will It Even Matter?

The Fed’s recent rate cut signaled something clear about the US economy, but what are they trying to say? With a bolder rate cut than many of us expected, homebuyers, business owners, and real estate investors are seeing the light at the end of the high-rate tunnel, where borrowing money and buying houses could come at a lower cost. But with markets already anticipating a rate cut, did the recent cut even really matter?

Today, Federal Reserve reporter from The New York Times, Jeanna Smialek, shares her thoughts on what the Fed move meant after studying them full-time for over a decade. Jeanna believes that the Fed feels confident, even if this recent rate cut was overdue. Inflation has seen a substantial dropoff, but on the other hand, unemployment is rising, and Americans are getting nervous. Did the Fed move fast enough?

Jeanna also shares the future rate cuts we can expect from the Fed, with more potentially coming this year and a sizable series of cuts already lined up for 2025. How significant will the cuts be, and will they be enough to stop unemployment from getting out of control? How will rent prices and home prices move due to more rate cuts? We’re answering it all in this episode!

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.

Listen to the Podcast Here

Read the Transcript Here

Dave:
The Fed finally did it last week. The Federal Reserve went big and they cut the baseline interest rates, the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, and most analysts expected a rate cut. The Fed basically said that they were going to do that. And if you listen to this show, you’ve probably heard us talking about this anxiously and eagerly for a couple of weeks now. But last week’s rate cut and the Fed meeting was full of new information and left me with a lot of new questions to help me answer those questions. I’m bringing on a professional fed researcher and reporter, the New York Times, Jeanna Smialek to help us answer all the many questions I am sure we all have about where the fed’s going and what’s going to happen with interest rates.
Hey everyone, welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer and my guest today, Gina Ick covers the Federal Reserve and the economy at the New York Times. She’s been doing this for more than 11 years, so she really, really understands what’s going on with the Federal Reserve. And today she and I are going to get into questions like, what does the rate cut? Tell us about how the Fed feels about the US economy and where they’re trying to steer it. Are we finally out of the woods on inflation? How long will these rate cuts take to hit the economy and will average Americans actually feel these rate cuts in terms of the broader economy, the job market, or just in their wallets? Plus, we’re going to talk about a lot more. So let’s bring on Gina. Gina, welcome to the podcast. Thanks for being here.

Jeanna:
Yeah, thanks for having me.

Dave:
Well, I’m super excited to have this conversation, at least for people in our industry and who listen to this podcast. We have been talking about the Fed and potential rate cuts for so long and they’ve finally done it. Just as a recap, at the most recent Fed meeting, September 17th and 18th, the FOMC, the board of people who make these decisions decided to cut the baseline interest rate by half a percentage point. So let’s just lay some groundwork here. Gina. How long has it been since there’s been a rate cut like this?

Jeanna:
So it’s been more than four years, so your listeners may remember that at the very start of the Coronavirus Pandemic in early 2020, the economy was crashing down, markets were falling to pieces, and the Fed slashed interest rates to 0% basically overnight. And that was the last time we had a rate cut. Ever since then, we’ve either had them steady or rising. So this is the first time in a while

Dave:
And heading into Covid, what was the federal funds rate at?

Jeanna:
So it was just under 2%. It was hovering around one six heading into the pandemic, and it had only been as high as about 2.4, 2.5% over the course of the decade preceding that. So we were relatively low but not at zero, and then we slashed it to zero right at the start of the pandemic.

Dave:
And then from there, I think starting in March of 2022, anyone in real estate knows what happens, but interest rates rose very quickly over a short period of time going up above 5% up until recently. And one of the interesting things is going into this meeting of the Fed in September is pretty much everyone knew they were going to cut rates. They’ve been telegraphing this for months, but the intrigue, at least for weird people like me who follow this so carefully is that we didn’t know how significant a cut it was going to be. I think originally people were thinking it would be 25 basis points, and for anyone listening, if you don’t know what a basis point is, it’s 100th of 1%. So when you say 25 basis points, it’s basically 0.25%. And so talking about cutting it 25 basis points and then there was higher inflation and worse labor data, and so they thought it was going to be 50 basis points. Ultimately they went with what most people would consider the bolder, more aggressive move to stimulate the economy of 50 basis points. What do you think that tells us about the Fed’s thinking right now?

Jeanna:
I think by choosing to go big here, they really sent a very clear message, which is that they don’t want to slow down the economy anymore. They think that inflation is basically on track to come under control. It’s come down really rapidly recently, the fed’s preferred inflation indicators at 2.5%. We’re going to get a new reading of it on Friday. So it’s been coming down steadily and that’s expected to continue. And so I think in that environment, in an environment where inflation is really moderating pretty solidly, the Fed is increasingly attuned to what’s happening in the labor market and they want to make sure that they don’t keep hitting the breaks so hard on the economy that they caused the job market to crash. And so I think this was a really clear statement that that is their top priority now it’s taking their foot off that gas pedal quickly enough to make sure that they can assure the soft landing.

Dave:
And just as a reminder, the Fed has what is known as the dual mandate from Congress where they have these somewhat competing priorities, which is one is price stability, a k, a fighting inflation. The other one is maximizing employment or AKA just stimulating the economy. And they’ve been on this. Those are the two things that they think about and they’ve been focused almost entirely on fighting inflation for the last two years. But Gina, what has changed? They’ve clearly made this big significant policy shift. What is going on in the broader economy that led them to make this change?

Jeanna:
Yeah, so I think the number one thing that’s happened is just inflation has come down a lot. We had 9.1% consumer price index inflation as of the summer of 2022. That was the peak and we’re down well below 3%. Now inflation has really moderated quite a bit and if you look at the Fed’s preferred gauge, it’s sort of a less dramatic decline, but still a pretty substantial decline. And so inflation has climbed down a lot and at the same time we’ve seen the job market really start to show cracks. It’s not obvious that the job market is following off a cliff yet we’re still adding jobs every month. Unemployment’s still at a historically relatively low level, but unemployment’s definitely creeping up. Job openings are really shutting down and we’re seeing some signs and hearing some signs anecdotally in the economy that hiring is really slowing. The companies are starting to pull back. And so I think you add that all up and it looks like a slightly more fragile situation. I think they’re just worried that if you keep pushing on the economy so hard, if you keep trying to slow it, there’s a real risk that you could cause some pain here and that pain might not really be necessary in a world where inflation is coming pretty clearly under control.

Dave:
And there’s a lot of historical precedent that shows that when the unemployment rate starts to tick up a little bit, it’s followed by a more aggressive increase in the unemployment rate. And so we’re starting to see just the beginnings of what could turn into a more serious job loss scenario. And so it does seem that they’re trying to send a strong signal to the economy. Alright, we know that the Fed cut rates and why it’s significant, but how much of an impact is this actually going to have on the economy and why have we seen mortgage rates actually go up since the Fed announcement? Gina’s analysis on all of this right after the break, everyone, welcome back to On the Market. I’m here with Gina Smick talking about the latest Fed rate cut. So let’s jump back in. Gina, I’m curious, is this just a signal or is the 50% basis point cut really going to have any sort of immediate impact to the economy?

Jeanna:
So I think it’s both. When you do a large rate cut like the one that they just did, that theoretically does translate over to all kinds of other interest rates. But the way that this stuff works in practice is that the moment we see these adjustments in markets is typically when markets start anticipating a rate cut rather than when the rate cut happens itself. And so the signal and the actuality are almost inseparable in this case. So when the Fed cut rates by half a point last week, it’s a good case in point. What that really did was it communicated to markets that the Fed is paying attention to this, that they’re ready to be sort of very forthright about rate cuts if that’s what’s necessary. And what we saw is sort of over the next couple of years, markets started anticipating a slightly more aggressive path forward for rate cuts. And so that translates into lower mortgage rates. It’s really the expectations that sort of moves markets translates what the Fed is planning on doing into the real world. And so I think that the expectations are really the kind of pivotal thing here, but the actuality of having done the half point cut is the thing that the expectations.

Dave:
Yeah, that makes sense. So we’ve talked about this just for everyone to remember. The Fed does not control mortgage rates. Their federal funds rate does have indirect implications for mortgage rates. They much more closely follow bond yields and bonds. To Gina’s point, we’re moving down for months ahead of this decision in anticipation of the cut, which is why at least the day of the cut mortgage rates actually went up because bond yields and bond traders, there’s a lot of calculations that go into bond prices that factor in not just the federal funds rate, but things like recession risk or inflation risk. And so all of those things are impacting mortgage rates and why they moved up. But I’m curious beyond mortgage rates, and we will get back to that, everyone talking about housing, we’re talking about trying to stave off a serious job loss situation, whether that’s a recession or not, but obviously the Fed doesn’t want the unemployment rate ticking up outside of highly leveraged industries like real estate where mortgage rates do almost have an immediate impact on the industry. Do you think this changes the, for let’s say manufacturing businesses or tech companies or restaurants, does this really change anything for them?

Jeanna:
I think over time the cost of capital absolutely does change things. For your run of the mill business. I think manufacturing is a good example because it’s very capital intensive. They operate on a lot of borrowed money. And I think that if your cost of capital is lower, if it’s cheaper to borrow, then it just means that you can make a profit at a much lower, you can turn a profit with a lower actual sort of revenue because you’re not spending so much on your interest costs. And so this does matter. I think it affects how people think about their future investments. But I think again, it really comes down to what the path going forward is. It’s not one rate cut that’s going to change the calculus for all of these actors across the economy. It’s really the path ahead, how much rates come down over the next couple of years, how that sort pairs up with what’s happening in the real economy.
If interest rates are coming down because we’re about to plunge into a recession, then I as a factory owner in the Midwest am not going to take out a huge loan and hugely expand my operations. But if interest rates are coming down because the Fed has declared victory over inflation and they’ve nailed the soft landing and they just don’t think they need to have high interest rates anymore, that could be a much more sort of positive story for my future investment. And so I think we’re at this moment where people are probably trying to figure out which of those scenarios we’re in, but it certainly could matter for how people think about investing.

Dave:
That makes a lot of sense. And it just seems like the mentality shift alone will do something that’s just a personal opinion, but the Fed has been so clear for two and a half years now that they are not being accommodative to business. That was not their priority. They were fighting inflation and now just this signal that they’re saying, Hey, listen, we know it’s been hard, the cost of capital has gone up so quickly and so rapidly that even if just 50 basis points doesn’t make deals pencil, just the knowing that the Fed is shifting their mentality towards business, I’m sure has some implication. Now, Gina, you mentioned that inflation has come down and that the Fed is feeling confident. And just for the record, it’s at CPIs at about 2.5%, the lowest it’s been since 2021, but not at the 2% target that the Fed has repeatedly stated. What is it about recent trends in data that seems to be giving the fed such confidence that they’re winning this battle?

Jeanna:
So I think it’s a couple of things. I think one is just the trend, right? If you look at it, if you look at the chart on a graph, you see just a steady hike up a hill where inflation is rising, rising, rising between 2021 and mid 2022. And currently we’re in this sort of down slope where it’s just steadily been coming down. And so it seems like it’s headed very much in the right direction. So I think the trend has one thing. I also think things sort of the fundamentals, like the things that go into inflation are making people feel pretty good. The decline’s been very broad based. It hasn’t just happened in one or two categories. This isn’t just a story of one thing getting back to normal. We’ve seen it happen across quite a few categories. It seems like a generalized decline, and I think that’s good because it makes you believe it’s more sustainable.
And then I think we’re starting to see some changes that in the broader economy that make you feel good, that inflation is likely to come back under control. One of those is that wage growth has slowed quite a bit. It sounds kind of ghoulish to be happy that wage growth has slowed, but wage growth is really, really rapid for a while during the deaths of this inflationary episode. And when you have really fast wage growth, you worry that that could potentially keep inflation at a sort of consistently higher level. And the reason is it’s pretty obvious to anybody who’s ever worked in the business world, if you are paying your employees a lot more and you are expecting that to happen sort of contractually year after year, you’re going to have to put up prices a little bit more or else you’re going to have to take a hit to your profit margins or else you’re going to have to improve productivity. One of those things has to happen. So assuming productivity is remaining relatively stable, you’re probably got to put prices up. And so I think that because wage growth has cooled off a little bit, I think officials are feeling a lot more confident that inflation’s capable of returning to those previous levels.

Dave:
Thank you for explaining that. If you’ve ever heard, if anyone listening has heard of the, I think they call it the wage price spiral. It’s basically that idea that businesses have increased costs due to labor. They’re paying their labor force more, which for most businesses is one of if not the largest expense that they have. And so then they pass that price, that increase in cost onto consumers, and then those consumers say, Hey, I go demand a raise because everything’s more expensive. And so then the businesses have more expenses that they pass on the consumers and it creates this cycle that can be really bad for inflation. And as Gina pointed out, that could be lessening. Now, the one thing at least I am concerned about Gina is housing. Because housing has been one of the biggest contributors to inflation over the last couple of years.
And you see that in asset prices, obviously with the price of houses, which is not typically reflected in the CPI, the consumer price index just so everyone knows. But rent is a big bucket in consumer price index and that has been huge and it’s just finally starting to come down. But with rate cuts, because again, real estate, highly leveraged industry, which just for everyone highly leveraged just means uses a lot of debt and this rate cuts could really help real estate. And I’m curious if there’s any concern from either the Fed or people you talk to that rent prices could go up or asset prices could start reinflating because of these rate cuts.

Jeanna:
This is definitely something people will bring up. I do think it’s important to kind of walk through the mechanics of how that would practically work. And I think when you do that, you feel a little bit less worried about this story. So I think like you mentioned, asset prices themselves do not factor in to the consumer price index. So home price goes up, the CPI, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts together the CPI index basically looks at that and says, that is an investment that is your investment appreciating. And so we’re not going to treat that as price inflation because really not the same thing. And so I think when you’ve got rates coming down, what you would most expect to see is that that’s sort of feeds into higher home prices because me a wannabe home buyer, I can afford a little bit more house in a world where interest rates are a little bit lower and there’s going to be more competition for houses because more people are going to be able to jump into the market, et cetera, et cetera.
Home prices go up a little that doesn’t really feed into inflation. The place where you could see an effect on inflation is really through the rental market. But we’ve got a couple of factors that matter here. One is that if people can jump into the market for purchased homes, if more people are capable of buying houses, then you would hope and expect that there’s going to be less pressure on the rental market. The second thing is we have had quite a lot of supply come online over the last couple of years and a couple of important markets in the Southeastern Sunbelt in particular, and that’s helping rent prices to go down right now, and that’s kind of slowly feeding into the rental data still. And then I think just the third thing which is important to note is that rent prices track really closely with wage growth.
If you chart them together, if you go to Fred and put rent of primary residence against average hourly earnings, you can see a really clear relationship there. And so I think the fact that wage growth has moderated somewhat, whichever is the chicken or the egg, I think can imagine that we’re going to see some rental growth moderation as well. Rent’s our biggest, there’s a reason it’s such an important number, it’s the thing we spend the absolute most money on in the typical person’s budget. And so it tends to reflect how much people can afford. And so I think for those three reasons, I don’t think we have to be super, super worried. Clearly it is something that because it’s such a big deal, it’s something that people are going to pay a lot of attention to.

Dave:
Okay, so it sounds like rent growth probably isn’t too big of an immediate concern, and that is consistent with everything we see. Gina, we talk to a lot of economists who focus on these things on the show, and so we hear that consistently that because of this multifamily influx of supply and a lot of the other variables you mentioned that rent growth has really moderated. It’s actually below wage growth right now in most markets in the us. But I guess the thing that I guess think about, I don’t know if I worry about it, is that even though housing prices aren’t in the CPI, and I understand why it’s not because it’s an investment, there’s a psychological element that just seeing housing prices take off again and for real estate investors, for some real estate investors, that’s a good thing. Personally, I would love to just see stable normal growth. That’s my preference as a real estate investor is just get back to that 3% appreciation rate. That’s normal. I just wonder what that does to the economy and to American consumer if home prices become so unaffordable that people feel like the American dream of home ownership is getting even further and further away. I wonder what that does to the economy in general. But I don’t know if I even have a question there, but that’s just something I think about a lot.

Jeanna:
I will say one interesting thing here, we also think about this a lot. I’ve written a lot of stories about this because it is the number one thing people will tell you if you survey them on the economy right now is the economy’s bad. I can never buy a house. Or interestingly, the economy’s bad. My kid can never buy a house. Older people who already own homes will feel bad about it because of the next generation. So I think this is obviously a huge concern. I will say that one thing that is really interesting is Larry Summers and a couple of co-authors did a really interesting paper on this earlier this year, but they were basically making the case that to a consumer, the fact that interest rates have been so much higher, the fact that mortgage rates have been so much higher, basically scans as part of this affordability problem.
It’s not just the house price, it’s the effective cost of owning a house every month. And so mortgage prices definitely factor into that equation. They’re a big part of the reason affordability has been so bad. And so I do think that it’s possible. I actually, I was playing around with some math on this. For a lot of people it will be the case that if you are completely financing a home purchase, your affordability is still going to look better with a slightly lower mortgage rate even if home prices accelerate a little bit. And so I do think that’s an important part of that equation.

Dave:
Okay, yeah, that’s good to think about and something that we’re just going to have to keep an eye on. As Gina mentioned of home affordability, there is a way to measure it. It’s basically a combination of wages, mortgage rates, home prices. It’s near 40 year lows. It’s close to since the early eighties when mortgage rates were like 18% was the last time we saw affordability this low. And most economists I talked to don’t think that’s sustainable. And I think that’s why a lot of people say the housing market’s going to crash or something like that, where in reality as we talk about on this show that a lot of the indicators don’t show that the housing market’s going to crash and instead the more likely path to restored affordability is slower. And I know that’s frustrating to people, but it’s going to be the most probable and no one knows.
But the most probable way we restore affordability is continued real wage growth, which we’re seeing, which is good, but that takes a long time and a slow and steady decline of mortgage rates back to a more normal rate or historic long-term averages, which is more towards a five and a half percent mortgage rate. Something like that would increase affordability, probably not as quickly as some people, but that is probably what’s going to happen. Okay, we have to hear one more quick word from our sponsors, but I am curious what you all think about this rate cut and what it means for the housing market. So if you’re listening on Spotify or YouTube, let us know in the poll below. Do you think this is going to help the housing market? Do you think it’s going to kick off more inflation or higher appreciation in the housing market? Please tell us your thoughts. We’ll be right back with Gina’s thoughts on the rate cuts that might be in store for 2025 right after this.
Welcome back investors. Let’s pick up where we left off, Gina. I wanted to shift towards the future. We’ve seen this rate cut now and the Fed a couple times a year puts out something called the summary of economic projections, which is not a plan. I want to shout that out, that this is not them saying this is what we’re going to do instead, it is a survey of the members of the FOMC, so it’s the people who vote on these things. It asks them where do they think things are going, how do they think the economy’s going? Can you give us a summary of what came out of this time in the summary of economic projections?

Jeanna:
Yeah, so the summary of economic projections comes out once every quarter. They do it four times a year and they tend to emphasize it exactly as much as they like what it says. So really if Jay Powell doesn’t like what it’s saying, he’s not a plan, this is not our plan. And then sometimes when he basically it seems aligned with their plans, he’ll be like, as you can see in the summary of economic projections. And I will say this was one of those, as you can see in the summary of economic projections month, they do seem to sort of be embracing it this time. So we got a forecast for interest rates for the next couple of years that shows that officials are likely to cut rates another half point this year and then a full point next year as well. So basically two more quarter point cuts or one more half point cut this year and then either two half point or four quarter point cuts next year if you’re doing the math at home.
So we are in for a pretty clear cycle of interest rate reductions going forward, and that’s predicated on a slightly slowing labor market. The Fed officials think that unemployment’s going to raise up to 4.4%, which is a little bit higher than the 4.2% we’re sitting at currently. And then in a immaculate moment, it’s just going to miraculously stabilize at 4.4% how that happens, not entirely clear, and inflation is going to steadily come down to the fed’s target over the next couple of years. And so it’s a pretty benign, benign cool down that they are forecasting, but obviously predicated on this idea that they’re going to lower interest rates.

Dave:
So they’re sticking with the soft landing is possible, meaning if you haven’t heard this term, soft landing, I don’t know where that term came up from, but it’s this continuous idea that you can raise interest rates without creating a recession was basically the whole idea back in 2022. And for context, when you raise interest rates, the whole point is to slow down the economy, and that’s because often the symptom of an overheated economy is inflation. And so the Fed is like, Hey, we got to slow this thing down, but they want to slow it down so perfectly that they can create this right set of conditions where interest rates are just at the right rate, where businesses are still hiring, they’re still growing, the economy is still growing, but inflation comes down. And so we’re yet to see if that’s possible. There’s a lot of recession red flags. A lot of economists I’d say are kind of split right now on are we heading towards a recession or not, but it looks like the Fed is sticking with their belief that they can pull this off, avoid an official recession and get inflation under control. Jane, I don’t know, in your work if you talk to a lot of economists, investors, do other people other than the Fed think this is possible?

Jeanna:
Yeah, I would say so. I think that actually pretty broadly, people are feeling fairly optimistic. I think partially because everyone spent years feeling pessimistic and then inflation came down really rapidly and pretty painlessly. And so I think the pessimists have been proven wrong pretty repeatedly for the last couple of years. So I think most people you talk to are feeling pretty good. I will say that there are some economists who are a little bit more concerned that if we take it for granted, we’re going to lose it. I think that there was definitely before this meeting, there was a real sense that the Fed needed to get, there’s a risk of overdoing it and causing some pain here. But in general, yeah, it seems like people are feeling pretty good. I think partially sort of encouraged by the fact that retail sales and overall growth and gross domestic product growth, they look pretty good right now. That part of the economy still looks really strong. We’re seeing a slowdown in the hiring obviously, but sort of the spending and consumption portions of the economy really holding up. That said, those things are lagging indicators, so they tend to sort of slow down later than the job market. And so I think that there’s a reason to read all of that with some caution.

Dave:
Alright, so what’s next for the Fed? We just had our September meeting. When is the next meeting and what are you looking out for?

Jeanna:
So the next meeting is very start of November, and I think that the big question is just going to be, are we still on track for these two more quarter point cuts this year? Is it going to be two quarter point cuts, one in November, one in December, which is their final meeting of the year? Just sort of the timing, pacing, all that kind of stuff. I think it’s going to be up in the year over the next couple of months. We’re going to have a lot of data before the next meeting, so we’ll have more jobs report, one more jobs report, we’ll have another couple of inflation reports. So I think that all of that paired together will kind of give us a clear idea of what’s likely to happen. And as often happens at moments like this when a lot is in flux and the Fed has to make some big decisions, fed officials are just speaking in full force at the moment. They are just everywhere. So I’m pretty sure that they will clearly communicate with us whatever is happening next, they’re clearly going to have

Dave:
Opportunities. Gina, I don’t know how long you’ve been following the Fed. For me as an investor, I used to kind of pay attention to what they were doing. Now I pay a ton of attention to what they’re doing. But it seems like in previous years, meetings were sort of a mystery. You didn’t really know what they were going to do and now they’ve gotten to this way of just telling you sort of ahead of time what they’re going to do and telegraphing it. Exactly. I’m just curious, has that changed in your career as you’ve covered the Fed? Do they do this more?

Jeanna:
Yeah, so I’ve been covering the Fed for 11 years now, a long time. I’ve been covering the Fed for a long time and it has certainly changed in that time. It’s become even more transparent. But I also wrote a book on the Fed, and a big chunk of my book on the Fed is about this question about how communications have changed over time. And so I’ve done a lot of research into this and it is just astonishing how much this has changed. We got up to the nineties and Alan Greens fan wasn’t regular, who was then the Fed chair wasn’t regularly announcing, announced Fed Fed decisions. People were just watching him walk out of the meetings and trying to gauge the size of his briefcase to try and figure out what had happened with interest rates.

Dave:
Oh my God.

Jeanna:
So not the paragon of transparency. And then only in the early two thousands did under Greenspan, but then much more intensely under Bernanke and Yellen. Did the Fed really start to sort of open up, explain what it was doing? Bernanke instituted the press conferences when Chair Powell, the current fed chair came in, he made those meeting. They were every quarter prior to that. And so we’ve really had to shift toward extreme transparency, very different from what the Fed had historically done.

Dave:
Interesting. That’s pretty fascinating. Yeah, I can imagine. Everything is a little bit more transparent, and at least as investors myself, I think it’s helpful and I think it probably helps avoid some extreme reactions or any panic in the markets when you can sort of drip out information slowly and at the right intervals to make sure that people understand what’s going on, but aren’t freaking out about potential outcomes that aren’t necessarily going to happen. Is that sort of the idea?

Jeanna:
Yeah, and I also think, so this was really an innovation under Ben Bernanke who had done a lot of research into the topic and sort of one of his many areas of expertise. But I think that the idea here is what you’re really doing when you are setting monetary policy is you are influencing expectations and you are sort of trying to guide people into an understanding of the future that will help that future to be realized. And so I think that he thought, and I think that it has sort of been shown by practice that if you communicated clearly what the Fed was doing and what its goals were, it was going to be easier to achieve those goals in sort of like a relatively painless and orderly manner. And so I think that’s been sort of the idea and the innovation, and I think that that’s why they focus so much on communications and so much on what they would call forward guidance, which is kind of communicating what they’re going to do so that they start to move economic conditions before they actually do anything. It’s been a real innovation in monetary policymaking, and it’s not just the Fed that’s doing this these days. This is sort of gold standard central banking practice all around the world at this stage.

Dave:
Alright, well thank you so much for explaining this. I’ve always been curious about that. Ben, thank you so much for sharing your insights on recent fed activity and your expectations, Jeanna. We really appreciate it.

Jeanna:
Thanks for having me.

Dave:
And if you want to read more about Jeanna’s work research book, we’ll put all of the contact information and links in the show notes below. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of On The Market. We’ll see you next time. On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

Watch the Episode Here

Help Us Out!

Help us reach new listeners on iTunes by leaving us a rating and review! It takes just 30 seconds and instructions can be found here. Thanks! We really appreciate it!

In This Episode We Cover

  • The Fed’s recent 0.50% rate cut explained and their forecast for 2025 rate cuts
  • The signal the Fed is sending by making a bigger rate cut (and preparing for more to come)
  • Why the Fed decided NOW was the time to finally cut rates (and whether it was too late)
  • Inflation updates and good news for the slowing of growing prices
  • Housing affordability and whether or not these rate cuts will help homebuyers/renters
  • And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.