by Rachael Hite | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
The changes to how real estate commissions are advertised and sourced as a result of the National Association of Realtors’ proposed settlement has led to the creation of Shay, an application to help homebuyers avoid the traditional sales model.
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The changes to how real estate commissions are advertised and sourced as a result of the National Association of Realtors’ proposed settlement has led to the creation of Shay, “the first self-representation platform for homebuyers,” according to an August 17 press release.
The company said its intent is to allow homebuyers to buy a home without the insight of a traditional agent.
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“Homebuyers finally have greater visibility and control over how much they pay their real estate agent,” says Peter Jeffrey, founder and CEO of Shay. “For the many homebuyers who find the cost of traditional representation too high, Shay guides them through the process of representing themselves. We are excited to support the next generation of homebuyers and save them tens of thousands of dollars.”
The software experience provides detailed guides on the sales process, offering tips and resources on what it takes to find a match, effectively negotiate, find a mortgage and step through escrow. Through task lists, guides, articles and an artificial intelligence solution, “Shay enables homebuyers to complete critical real estate tasks including generating offers, conducting local due diligence, negotiating and reviewing agreements,” the release stated.
Jeffery said paying a fixed percentage when buying a home is a “bad idea.”
“We enable homebuyers to save money by doing it themselves. This is similar to how TurboTax gives tax filers an alternative to accountants or Expedia gives travelers an alternative to travel agents. Shay offers a new solution for homebuyers to save money on an already incredibly expensive purchase,” Jeffrey said.
Shay is available now for a flat fee of $500 with additional funds required for more services.
A number of companies are emerging with tools and pitches on how to overcome commission settlement-related changes for both consumers and agents. Some are sharing which sellers are offering commissions and others are providing more comprehensive approaches to assist both agents and consumers.
For now, experts agree that simply following the guidelines in the temporarily approved settlement are best, which include not advertising a buyer-broker commission in a NAR-affiliated listing advertisement and ensuring execution of a buyer-broker agreement that clearly spells out the payment structure.
In an Aug. 17 interview with Inman, lead settlement attorney Michael Ketchmark said everything is still playing out, and that eyes are on the industry.
“[… F]rom our standpoint, everything’s just been set in motion, and we’re sitting back waiting for it to take effect. We believe it’s going to take a while for the free market to adjust to this and for us to see commissions start coming down. But we fully expect that’s what’s going to happen.”
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by Sean Frank | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
Wright has served as NAR’s interim CEO since November after she replaced Bob Goldberg. She was instantly thrust into leading an organization in turmoil.
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The National Association of Realtors on Monday named Nykia Wright its full-time chief executive officer, more than nine months after she took over in an interim capacity.
Wright is now the 117-year-old organization’s 13th CEO and the first woman to serve in the role.
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Wright was first chosen to lead the 1.5 million-member trade association two days after a jury issued a verdict against NAR and other major real estate players in the landmark Sitzer | Burnett decision that sent the industry into disarray.
Wright was head of the organization while it brokered a major settlement agreement with homeseller plaintiffs, as NAR agreed to pay $418 million and enact sweeping changes that took effect over the weekend.
NAR hadn’t publicly put an end date on Wright’s interim tenure, saying only that she would serve in the role while the organization conducted a nationwide search for a permanent replacement. NAR President Kevin Sears said in April that he asked Wright to extend her contract and stay on as interim CEO through the end of the year.
On Monday, NAR made it official that Wright would remain in the role.
“I am thrilled Nykia is staying on board to lead us through this time of transformation,” Sears said in a statement. “She has been instrumental in leading us up to this point, and her unwavering commitment to our members makes her the ideal steward for guiding our association through the evolving real estate landscape.”
Wright took the reins from Bob Goldberg, who served from August 2017 until he retired in November 2023. Goldberg’s tenure followed that of Dale Stinton, who had the role from 2005 through 2017.
Wright was thrust into an ongoing tumult that included mounting legal challenges, scrutiny from federal regulators and a simmering staff mutiny.
When she joined NAR in November, the organization had been publicly saying it would appeal the Sitzer | Burnett jury verdict. Financial analysts predicted that NAR’s core membership faced challenges that would lead many of them to abandon the real estate profession. Members began openly asking whether the Realtor brand had been ruined for good, and a competing association began to take shape.
Wright said in a recent interview that her extensive business experience prepared her to act as a steady hand through major disruption.
She led the Chicago Sun-Times when it became one of the few major newsrooms to transition into a nonprofit entity.
In her interim role, NAR said Wright has been guiding the implementation of a group of members that was tasked with improving the culture within the organization.
In an interview last week, Wright called on disengaged members to come back and share their voices with the organization.
“There’s a saying, ‘listen to the whispers so you don’t have to hear the screams,’” Wright said. “So the whispers of people wanting to leave is where we put our head on a swivel, get out there and start figuring out how we can bring those people back into the fold.
“When people are leaning out right now, it concerns me a little bit because their voice is not part of a future solution,” Wright said. “Being in business for yourself but not by yourself, when you leave the association, I consider [leaning out] going into the ‘by yourself’ type of box. And I think that we are truly stronger together, and we just have to continue to prove that.”
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by Lindsey Harn | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
Inman Connect is moving from Las Vegas to San Diego in 2025 and it’ll be bigger, better and bolder than ever before. Join us for Inman Connect San Diego on July 30-Aug. 1, 2025, with the brightest minds in real estate to shape the future of the industry. Reserve your spot today for an exclusive discount.
The concept of a “listening consultation” has a 30-year track record of success in all price ranges with a 92 percent conversion rate when followed as written. Even amid all the commission chaos at this moment in time, it’s still the most effective approach you can take because it’s based upon truly listening to what matters most to your sellers, building connection, and earning their trust.
Now more than ever, you must be well-prepared if you want to win the listing against all the other competition, and this includes addressing the issues around the commission lawsuits. Here’s what to do.
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What you will need
According to the most recent NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, over 80 percent of the time, the agent who meets with the seller first when their ready to list is the one that wins the listing. Here’s the list of what you should have available on your phone/iPad/laptop where you can access it immediately when you get a listing lead.
Pre-listing package
- The cover page of your pre-listing package should be the flyer you will put in your brochure box. It should include a color photo of the property, key features, and a QR code to instantly convert any buyer leads that click on the code to obtain property information. Have a template made up ahead of time where you can pop in the photo, the features, and QR code from one of the online QR code generators.
- If you haven’t done so already, download the NARRPR app that allows you to generate beautiful property reports by merely entering the property address and send it immediately to the listing lead when they first express an interest in selling their property. See this article for the details on exactly how to use this app to secure the appointment. (Please note, hold off on doing a CMA until you have seen the interior of the property.)
- Online reviews and video testimonials from past clients.
- Marketing photos/videos from your past listings. BoxBrownie.com allows you to take existing photos and virtually stage the property, create twilight photos, and as well as removing items from the photos you don’t want on the MLS.
- Premium Marketing Plan: Your “Listening Consultation” will ask whether the sellers would like to obtain the highest possible NET price for their property in the shortest amount of time. Virtually everyone answers, “yes,” however I’ve seen two divorces where that question generated a “no.”
When the seller says “yes,” then show them your Premium Marketing Plan that helps them achieve maximum exposure to the marketplace that results in the maximum NET price. You should include this in your Pre-List package. Here’s a sample of some of the things you could include.
It’s extremely important that you share what all brokers do, the tools your brokerage provides (especially if you’re with one of the big brands), as well as what you do that makes you different.
The Premium Marketing Plan also positions you as a “premium” agent who should be paid a full commission for the services you provide as opposed to a “limited services” broker who offers less service. NEVER use the word “discount” to describe other agents since almost everyone loves discounts. No one wants “limited service,” however.
This plan also assumes that the sellers may be interviewing other agents. If they are, invite the sellers to compare your “premium” services with what other agents are offering and then choose the agent who is most likely to help the sellers get the highest possible NET price for their property.
- You can drop this off personally (print copies can be quite effective) or text/email it to them when you first meet them, and they express an interest in listing their home.
At the listing appointment, you will need the following, preferably in a digital format:
- Laptop, iPad, other mobile device, or a pen and paper to record the seller’s responses to your Listening Consultation questions.
- All required listing contracts including agency, the listing contract, required federal, state, and local disclosures, etc. available in DocuSign or other digital signature format.
- Lockbox or key safe authorization plus yard sign authorization if appropriate.
- All the materials from your Pre-Listing Package. Again, they’re not likely to read this before your appointment, so be sure you include this material anyway.
Your step-by-step ‘listening consultation’
This approach is simple, direct, and easy to use. Since it’s question-based, it’s extremely important that you write down what the seller tells you. This builds connection and trust because when you write down what they say, they know you have heard what matters to them.
At the appointment
When you arrive at the property, do the following:
- Silence your phone so you won’t be interrupted.
- Avoid parking in the driveway — you don’t want to interrupt your appointment to move your car or have an oil leak on the seller’s driveway.
- When they answer the doorbell, smile and extend your hand to shake hands. (Please be culturally aware. Many people from other countries avoid handshakes.)
- Immediately thank the sellers for the opportunity to discuss listing their home.
- Practice consultative selling. (You are a conduit of information to help the seller make the best possible decision in terms of selling their home.)
- Stay 100 percent focused on providing the best possible service for your clients.
- Always remember, it’s their house, and it’s their decision—avoid being attached to the outcome.
- If viewing their house for the first time, ask about features that may not be obvious as well as any improvements or upgrades — take notes on what they tell you.
- After viewing the property, ask where they would like you to sit.
- Begin by asking, “Did you have an opportunity to read my marketing proposal?”
- Whether or not they have read it, cover the key points of differentiation during your appointment.
9 ‘listening consultation’ questions
No. 1: What have you enjoyed about living in this property?
Script:
Agent: An important step in effectively marketing your property is to understand what is most important to you about your home. With your permission, I would like to make a list now of the things you have enjoyed about living in this property. Making a list now will help me to provide more accurate information to prospective buyers and write a more effective ad. So, tell me, what should I put on my list now of the things that you have enjoyed about your home?
- Your purpose: to identify the highlights of the property and how to best advertise it.
- Make a detailed list of what the seller says.
- Follow up by asking, “What are the most important features you would like to see highlighted in the advertising?”
- When you ask the sellers about how they would like you to advertise their property, and they answer your question, they are already acting as if you are their listing agent. This is known as a presumptive close.
No. 2: What’s motivating you to sell?
Find as many positives about the property as possible to be used in your marketing of the property.
Script:
Agent: Mr. and Mrs. Seller, you have such a beautiful home, and the view is wonderful. What’s motivating you to sell?
Identify what they like about their property as well as the pain points they would like to avoid in their next home.
No. 3: Will these same features be important in your next home?
If the sellers are buying a replacement property, this question opens the door for you to represent them on that purchase. This question may also surface what they dislike about their present home as well as what they want to avoid in their next home.
Script:
Agent: You have told me about the wonderful neighborhood, how much you enjoy entertaining in your private backyard, as well as how important an open floor plan is to you. Will these features be important in your next home as well?
No. 4: Are the sellers also local buyers?
The follow-up question to No. 3 is to ask them whether they will be staying in the area or relocating outside the area. This question opens the door to representing them on their next purchase if they are moving locally or obtaining a referral fee by introducing them to a top agent in the area where they are moving.
Script (Seller is staying in the area)
Agent: In addition to these features, what price range will you be looking in when you search for your next property? (Wait for answer.)
Agent: Will you be staying in the area or relocating elsewhere. (If staying in the area…)
Agent: Would you like me to check the Multiple Listing Service to see how many homes in your price range have these features? I also have access to off-market listings (expired, pocket listings) as well as using a service (Leadflow) that allows me to identify properties that their AI says are likely to come on the market in the next 90 days.
No. 5: Making outbound relocation referrals (Seller is moving outside the area)
If the seller is locating outside your market area, avoid leaving a referral fee on the table. Offer to help the seller find an agent in the new area where they are moving.
If your company has offices in the area where the seller is moving, make an intra-company referral. If not, you can certainly read the reviews on sites like RateMyAgent.com, Yelp, Zillow, etc. If you’re active in your association, Women’s Council of Realtors, YPN or any other large Realtor group, network with those contacts for recommendations.
Finally, contact the top agents you discover, read their reviews, and determine who would be the best fit for your referral.
Script:
Agent: Are you staying in the area?
[Wait for an answer.]
Agent: Where do you plan on moving?
[Wait for an answer.]
Agent: Would you like me to put you in touch with a referral agent in the area where you are moving so you can receive the best possible customer service?
If the sellers already have a referral/relocation agent, ask the following:
Agent: Oh, by the way, would you like me to send the broker a copy of the list we made today, as well as some pictures of your present property? That way, the broker will know exactly what to look for in your new home.
No. 6: Do you want to obtain the highest possible net price for your property?
This question introduces the following:
- The closing sequence for pricing the property.
- How maximum exposure equals maximum price.
- How your Premium Marketing Plan works to help the seller achieve the highest possible net price for their property.
Script:
Agent: Is it correct to assume that you would like to get the highest possible net price for your property?
No. 7: Maximum exposure to the marketplace equals maximum price
It is critically important in our new post-August 17, 2024, world, that you keep your seller focused on the NET amount they will receive by working with you. Commissions are only part of the puzzle.
Script:
Agent: To obtain the highest possible net price, you must have maximum exposure to the market. May I show you how our Premium Marketing Plan provides you with maximum exposure that results in maximum price? (Discuss primary points of differentiation).
(Review the following for 7 ways to market your new listing at no cost, which also includes how to construct a social media marketing plan.)
Additional items to discuss include staging guidelines, drone photography, 360 virtual tours and listing posted in 19 different languages (through many MLSs and major brands using Immobel.com). Given that up to 75 percent of the searches for digital content in many major metropolitan areas are in languages other than English, if you have access to this service, be sure to include it in your points of differentiation.
No. 8: Which of these services would you like to use to market your property?
When you ask this question, almost all sellers will say, “All of them!”
No. 9: Then all we have to do is take care of the paperwork!
If the seller asks you to discount your listing commission, here’s the script to use:
Agent: Mr. and Mrs. Seller, I only work with sellers who want to obtain the highest possible price in the shortest amount of time by using our premium services. If you would like to reduce the commission, I would be happy to give you a referral to a limited services agent who does not offer this level of service.
Remember, no one wants limited service.
The elephant in the room: The commission lawsuit settlements
Based upon what I heard at Real Estate Connect as well as from a variety of other experts, here are my key takeaways about how to keep this simple for your seller.
- Until you have clarity from your brokerage about how to handle open houses and having a signed agreement in place prior to showing the property, schedule virtual property tours, virtual open houses, and showings only with buyer agents who have signed Buyer Brokerage Representation Agreements.
- When the sellers ask you about how to handle the commissions under the new agreement, it’s very straightforward. You are only negotiating the commission amount that you and your broker will be paid.
- If your seller asks about incentives, concessions, or buyer agent commissions, James Dwiggins made an important point in my article:
“There is zero reason sellers/seller agents should advertise buyer’s agent compensation, concessions or anything in advance of an offer. The only thing agents should state and put in the MLS (which is legal) is the following: Seller is willing to entertain any and all requests you put in your offer.
The end.
If you’re in a buyer’s market, avoid discussing the “C” words — commission, compensation and concession with your seller. Instead, use the word “incentives” if the seller wants to offer something to attract more showings or sweeten the deal.
It’s important to advise your sellers that buyers may ask them to pay their buyer’s agent fee, many times since the buyers may have enough money to pay it. Again, avoid asking the seller to negotiate against themselves and wait for the offers to come in.
The nine key listing questions above are simple to ask. The secret is to be prepared to do a listing appointment at a moment’s notice, have the tools outlined above at your fingertips, take notes, build connection, stay focused on what’s best for the seller, and always remember, “It’s their house and it’s their decision.”
Bernice Ross, president and CEO of BrokerageUP and RealEstateCoach.com, and the founder of RealEstateWealthForWomen.com is a national speaker, author and trainer with over 1,500 published articles.
by OB Jacobi | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
CHICAGO (August 19, 2024) – The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has named Nykia Wright its permanent Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately.
Wright, an executive with vast experience driving organizational transformation, has served in the interim CEO role since November 2023.
“I am thrilled Nykia is staying on board to lead us through this time of transformation,” said 2024 NAR President Kevin Sears, broker-associate of Sears Real Estate/Lamacchia Realty in Springfield, Mass. “She has been instrumental in leading us up to this point, and her unwavering commitment to our members makes her the ideal steward for guiding our association through the evolving real estate landscape.”
During her initial tenure, Wright shepherded the association in early 2024 through negotiations to settle and resolve claims brought on behalf of home sellers related to broker commissions. She also is guiding the implementation of NAR’s Culture Transformation Commission—a group of more than 70 members, including state and local association staff and NAR staff selected through a collaborative process — which was established to identify and break down impediments to being an inclusive, welcoming and respectful organization for all individuals and to ensure that the association meets the evolving needs of members well into the future.
Under Wright’s leadership, NAR is sharpening its focus on its core mission of serving members, communicating more deliberately, and working to become a more agile organization. Among her immediate priorities will be to continue guiding NAR past the implementation of the proposed settlement practice changes and prioritizing ongoing education, training and compliance for consumers and agents.
“I am honored to have earned the confidence and trust from the Leadership Team to guide this organization at such a critical point. I am committed to ensuring our association remains a powerful and effective voice for the industry and to fulfilling our goal to bring the privilege of homeownership to more Americans,” Wright said. “I am clear eyed about our past and present, and I am hyper-focused on building trust with NAR’s many stakeholders so that we can be successful in ensuring we are bringing the best of NAR to each and every one of our members.”
Wright brings a breadth of executive leadership and strategic advisory experience to NAR. Previously, as CEO of the Chicago Sun-Times, she led the newspaper through a sweeping digital transformation and a merger with WBEZ (Chicago Public Media), which created one of the largest nonprofit local newsrooms in the country. She is a recognized leader in the media industry for managing significant disruption, driving change and implementing digital transformation at the newspaper.
Wright began her career in the financial services industry and, prior to leading the Sun-Times, was a strategy and business transformation consultant who advised Fortune 500 companies and top tier universities on operational, financial and performance improvement projects.
She is also the co-founder of SonicMESSENGER, a software-as-a-service (SaaS) startup helping democratize audience engagement and measurement by leveraging smart audio.
Wright serves on the board of the Better Government Association, and she is a member of the Dean’s Advisory Council at her alma mater, the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth.
About the National Association of Realtors®
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term Realtor® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of Realtors® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
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by Inman Content Studio | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
Whether it’s refining your business model, mastering new technologies, or discovering strategies to capitalize on the next market surge, Inman Connect New York will prepare you to take bold steps forward. The Next Chapter is about to begin. Be part of it. Join us and thousands of real estate leaders Jan. 22-24, 2025.
New rules stemming from the National Association of Realtors’ commission lawsuit settlement went into effect Saturday following years of litigation, potentially upending the industry, including how agents get paid.
Inman has covered the topic extensively and last week published a rundown of the rules that now govern NAR members and affiliated multiple listing services. This week, we’re calling agents, brokers, MLS executives, portals and other insiders as the rules rollout. Follow along as we update this story in real time.
MONDAY, AUGUST 19
11:28 a.m. ET: WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? As the lunch bell approaches, Inman wants to know what friction, distractions, slowdowns or complications you’ve encountered today. Let us know with your vote and we’ll report back later today.
10:33 a.m. ET: NO LONGER INTERIM: Nykia Wright, who has served as the interim CEO of the National Association of Realtors since November, will stay on as full-time head of the organization, NAR President Kevin Sears confirmed Monday.
Wright joined the 1.5 million-member organization after leading the Chicago Sun-Times through its tumult and transition into a nonprofit newsroom. Wright was asked last week whether she would stay on as CEO but deflected.
“I bloom where I’ve been planted,” she said, “and I let the universe take care of the rest of the details.” —Taylor Anderson
10:05 a.m. ET:NEW NAR SUIT FILED, DROPPED: A South Carolina real estate brokerage filed a class action lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors and seven state Realtor organizations Friday, alleging the group violated federal antitrust laws by compelling membership in order to effectively conduct business. It withdrew the lawsuit the same day.
In its complaint, the Cassina Group initially targeted a “mandatory triple membership” of local, state and national Realtor associations it says is required for real estate professionals to access lockboxes and transact properties. It would have been the second lawsuit targeting NAR and the fees and other rules in place that compel members to pay fees to conduct business.
The suit was filed on Aug. 16 — the day before the NAR settlement deadline — in the U.S. District Court of Northern Illinois, before being withdrawn. — Taylor Anderson
6:30 a.m. ET: READY, SET, GO: With all the commotion over the changes this weekend, Inman wants to know how you’re coping. Our reporters are working the phones this morning, but give us your first impressions of the week, below, and we’ll update the blog with responses this afternoon. —Jotham Sederstrom
5:45 a.m. ET: WATCHING THE DETECTIVES: Whatever you do, whatever you think you can do under the new rules, the plaintiffs’ attorneys will be watching.
That’s according to Michael Ketchmark of Ketchmark & McCreight, lead plaintiffs’ counsel for Sitzer | Burnett, the only suit among two dozen filed nationwide that has gone to trial. That suit resulted in a massive jury verdict in favor of the plaintiffs and against NAR and franchisors Keller Williams, Anywhere, RE/MAX and HomeServices of America.
Inman Deputy Editor Andrea Brambila spoke to Ketchmark ahead of the Aug. 17 deadline and his message was clear: Attorneys will be monitoring the actions of agents, brokers and MLSs this week and they have a variety of levers to pull if they witness anyone violating the rules. READ THE INTERVIEW.
5 a.m. ET: After months of anticipation, it’s Monday, and we’re finally living in our “New Normal,” where buyer’s agent compensation is no longer offered via Realtor-affiliated multiple listing services, and all buyers need to sign some type of agreement before a buyer’s agent takes them to tour a property.
We’ve known for a while that the rule changes of the proposed National Association of Realtors settlement would go into effect on Aug. 17, but with all of the questions, concerns and confusion surrounding the implementation of the new rules, agents and brokers are still looking for clarity.
Inman Editor Christy Murdock has compiled many of the questions you have, along with others we’ve encountered nationwide. The goal is to create a comprehensive resource to help our readers feel more confident and secure as you acclimate to the major changes. Check back as we fill in the resource with more of your unanswered questions. READ THE STORY.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 17
7:30 a.m. ET: DAWN OF A NEW DAY: Beginning today — Saturday, Aug. 17 — the real estate industry is poised for an exciting new chapter as the commission lawsuit settlement officially takes effect. On the historic day, Brad Inman offers his thoughts on how the industry can exceed its own expectations under the changes.
The best agents will thrive, the profession will be elevated, rot will be removed and brands built on trust and integrity will rise to the top, Inman writes.
“Fewer corners will be cut and the industry’s tainted reputation will be repaired,” Inman adds. “Substance will trump flash.” READ THE STORY.
6:02 a.m. ET: Five months after the National Association of Realtors agreed to a landmark antitrust settlement, the rules resulting from it go into effect today.
The rules will determine both how agents will get paid, and how consumers search for homes. In the former case, homesellers and their brokers will no longer be able to offer commissions to buyers’ brokers within NAR-affiliated multiple listing services.
In the latter, buyers will need to ink an agreement with their broker before touring a home. Other rules require brokers to disclose that commissions are negotiable and bar MLSs from helping seller agents make offers of compensation via non-MLS mechanisms. READ THE STORY.
FRIDAY, AUGUST 16
4:07 p.m. ET: A BRAVE NEW WORLD: The weekend marks the deadline when NAR’s new commission settlement rules go into effect. The deadline has prompted a race to the finish line as multiple listing services update forms and issue stern warnings, while NAR scrambles to educate the public. Meanwhile, industry leaders are spending significant energy assuaging concerns while agents debate the impacts in online forums.
To understand what’s happening, Inman reached out to key players and agents across the U.S. Two takeaways from these conversations emerged: First, multiple listing services — which are tasked with actually implementing the new rules — have already been rolling out changes. And the apocalypse has not arrived.
But second, some in the trenches say confusion still abounds. As a result, real estate practitioners need to exercise caution. READ THE STORY. —Andrea V. Brambila, Taylor Anderson, Lillian Dickerson and Jim Dalrymple II
by Brandon Newman | Aug 19, 2024 | Industry, News Feed
This report is available exclusively to subscribers of Inman Intel, the data and research arm of Inman offering deep insights and market intelligence on the business of residential real estate and proptech. Subscribe today.
For a brief moment this month, mortgage rates plunged below the 6.5 percent mark — down significantly from a recent peak of 7.5 percent in April.
It wasn’t enough.
Consumers say they need rates to fall significantly lower than that before they’ll be willing to buy a home, according to a July survey of 3,000 working U.S. adults conducted by Inman Intel and Dig Insights.
And even once first-time buyers rejoin the fold, they are likely to face the same problem that plagued the housing market in the early pandemic homebuying frenzy: little new inventory to replace the houses that get scooped up.
For this report, Intel analyzed the responses of this survey, which included a group of more than 2,000 adults from across the country who said they were unlikely to buy a home in the next year.
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Among other topics, Intel asked them how low rates would need to fall before they would seriously reconsider — an attempt to find a so-called “golden rate” that would spur renewed activity in home sales.
- Results from the Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey in July suggest that if rates fell from their recent 7 percent levels down to 5.5 percent, it could provide a meaningful boost to home sales.
- And if rates fell as low as 5.0 percent, the dam might break and release even more once-reluctant homebuyers onto the market.
But this emerging picture also hides some complex layers beneath the surface.
Instead of one clear number, the rate targets that emerged were quite different for renters than they were for homeowners. And coupled with the latest rate forecasts, these dueling dynamics could determine the complexion of the housing market not just for months, but potentially years.
Read Intel’s findings in the full report.
The big picture
High mortgage rates remain a serious obstacle preventing consumers from entering the home market.
First, the top-level findings:
- Of the working adults who said they were “unlikely” to buy a home in the next 12 months, 1 in 10 said they would seriously consider changing their mind if mortgage rates fell as low as 5.5 percent.
- But that share doubles to 1 in 5 in a scenario where rates were to fall to 5.0 percent.
Although mortgage rates can be volatile, forecasts suggest that rates that low may still be years away.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association, for example, projects that rates are on track to hit 5.9 percent only by the fourth quarter of 2025, and may stay in that range through the following year as well.
These results should be taken with a few grains of salt.
For one thing, all of the so-called “unlikely buyers” that Intel surveyed were, by their own admission, not in the market for a home at this time. This means that some of their responses are merely hypothetical, not the result of research and kitchen-table math.
After sitting down with their budget and looking at home prices and monthly payments, it’s plausible that some respondents might give a different response than they provided to the survey.
Still, some clear consumer attitudes emerged in the survey data — with implications for what effect a lower-rate environment might have on transaction volume and buyer-seller dynamics in the years to come.
Back to the future?
Intel’s consumer survey results also illuminate a potential roadmap for the future dynamics between buyers and sellers as rates continue to descend.
Predictably, the survey found that renters are more responsive to small movements in mortgage rates. Current homeowners, on the other hand, need to see bigger declines to nudge them off the sidelines.
Intel tried to quantify just how big the gap was, and where the two groups might end up converging.
- If mortgage rates were to fall a bit further to 6.0 percent — nearly 2 points below their high point in October — it would persuade nearly 9 percent of reluctant-to-buy renters to change course and consider entering the home market.
- Less than half as big a share of reluctant buyers who already own a home would respond the same way. Only 4 percent of this group would show interest in the housing market, given the same 6.0 percent rate assumption.
This dynamic is not hard to explain. The so-called “rate lock-in” effect has been widely discussed throughout the industry, and examined in depth by Intel before.
The vast majority of homeowners fall into one of two categories: they either have no debt on their home, or their current home loan has a much lower rate than they could find on the market any time soon.
With enough time, churn and rate cuts, this dynamic could eventually balance out.
But Intel survey results suggest that it will likely be prevalent even if rates fall a lot more than they’re currently expected to over the next two years.
- If mortgage rates fell below 5.0 percent, it would convince 25 percent of renters to seriously reconsider their reluctance to buy in the next 12 months.
- But sub-5-percent rates would only convince 16 percent of homeowners who are reluctant to buy in the next year to reconsider.
Ultimately, rates in the 5 percent range — and especially the lower fives — could be a sweet spot that unlocks a significant amount of new buyers and new housing inventory.
But even in that range, the demand from buyers could outpace the supply of existing homes hitting the MLS. It’s a dynamic that could bring back seller’s market dynamics throughout much of the country as more buyers compete for each available listing.
What might it take to avoid this kind of imbalanced buyer frenzy? More new housing construction could be part of the puzzle. But if builders can’t keep up, rates might have to fall to 4 percent or lower before renters and homeowners warm to the housing market at similar rates, Intel survey results suggest.
And that’s not likely to happen any time soon.
About the Inman-Dig Insights Consumer Survey
The Inman-Dig Insights consumer survey was conducted from July 5 through July 7 to gauge the opinions and behaviors of Americans related to homebuying.
The survey sampled a diverse group of 3,000 American adults, ranging in age from 24 to 65 and employed either full-time or part-time. The participants were selected to produce a broadly representative breakdown by age, gender and region.
Statistical rigor was maintained throughout the study, and the results should be largely representative of attitudes held by U.S. adults with full- or part-time jobs. Both Inman and Dig Insights are majority-owned by Toronto-based Beringer Capital.
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